"金砖四国"中的巴西及中国-巴西双边贸易分析

巴西与中国同为金砖四国成员,巴西丰富的自然资源和迅速增长的经济发展态势是其成为发展中大国的重要资本。中国和巴西经贸关系稳步发展,然而双边贸易发展并不平衡,我国一直呈现贸易逆差。从两国的进出口商品结构,包括对贸易结合度指数、商品集中度指数以及产品的显示性比较优势指数进行分析,可以看到中巴两国进出口商品特点不同,在出口商品种类上中巴双方的互补大于竞争。这为我国发挥自身产品优势,有计划地加大对巴贸易出口提供了可能。我国应在对巴贸易中做出更准确的市场判断,制定符合市场需求的进出口策略,充分挖掘两国贸易合作的潜力。     

The impact of the ACFTA on ASEAN–PRC trade: estimates based on an extended gravity model for component trade

This article uses an extended gravity model to examine the impact of the free trade agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on their trade flows and patterns. New determinants are utilized to capture the growing importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in East Asia. We show that the free trade agreement leads to substantially higher and more pronounced bilateral trade flows between ASEAN and the PRC than what a conventional gravity model predicts and the increase is concentrated in ASEAN countries that have stronger industrial linkages with the PRC.     

中国-东盟农产品贸易持续逆差研究

本文阐述了中国对东盟农产品贸易现状,从不同角度对中国对东盟农产品贸易持续逆差现象及其原因进行了分析,并发现中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差呈总体扩大趋势。得出如下结论:首先,中国-东盟农产品贸易逆差总体呈上升趋势;其次,中国对东盟主要农产品贸易逆差国为马来西亚、印度尼西亚和泰国;再者,主要出口农产品形成的贸易逆差是构成中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差的主要原因之一;最后,中国农产品比较优势下降,东盟主要农产品贸易逆差国的农产品的比较优势较为明显也是引起贸易逆差的原因之一。     

Entry regulation and international trade

We use cross-country, cross-industry data to analyse the relationship between entry regulation and international trade. We find robust evidence that entry regulation discourages exports of industries with low natural barriers to entry. This implies that, in international markets, countries with heavy entry regulation have a comparative disadvantage in industries that are technologically easy to enter. Further analysis shows that the result is partly due to the negative impact of entry regulation on productivity.     

中国和俄罗斯农产品贸易:动态及展望

中俄同为金砖四国成员国又是近邻,经贸联系日益密切,互为重要的农产品贸易伙伴。两国出口的主要农产品均为本国具有比较优势的农产品,贸易互补性较强,其农产品的贸易模式主要是产业间贸易,产业内贸易水平不高。     

Measuring patterns of specialization using trade in value added: the case of manufacturing in Italy

This article aims to contribute to the long-standing debate on the ‘anomaly’ of Italy’s specialization in manufacturing by providing fresh analysis based on new data. It offers: 1) a comprehensive survey of Italian comparative advantages measured in value-added terms and their evolution over time; 2) an international comparison of these advantages with Italy’s main competitors. Results show that the country’s traditional comparative advantages are substantially confirmed, a genuine capacity of the Italian domestic production factors to maintain added value in production with comparative advantage can be observed and new trends in terms of specialization and competitors are also highlighted, showing the influence of the international fragmentation of production on trade and specialization.     

我国渔业国际竞争力分析及提升策略研究

我国是世界渔业大国,水产品一直在我国农产品出口贸易中占有重要的地位。文章分析了我国水产品出口贸易的现状,并用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数和贸易竞争优势指数评价了我国水产品出口的竞争力,研究表明我国水产品出口贸易总体上具有一定比较优势,但我国的水产品贸易的国际化程度很低,且表现出比较优势不断下降的趋势。最后,针对影响我国水产品出口贸易的因素提出相应对策。     

A calm investigation into Mr Ricardo's principles of international trade

Abstract

This paper deals with some difficulties presented by Ricardo's texts on international trade, taking seriously Ricardo's account of the systematic interaction of real and monetary phenomena. After a brief reassessment of the main features of Ricardo's views on foreign trade, some basic questions are examined, concerning the method of analysis and the alleged invalidity of the labour theory of value at the international level. The enquiry goes on to state that, for Ricardo, there are no significant differences between domestic and international exchanges, and on this basis, proposes a simple and general rule explaining the flows of trade. The “principle of comparative advantage” and the “gains from trade” thus appear as simple unintended consequences of the decisions of agents in free markets. Finally, the characteristics of an international equilibrium and the nature and impact of destabilising shocks are analysed.     

分割生产、垂直型投资与产业内贸易

文章在Dixit-Stiglitz垄断竞争的框架下,分析了在产品的生产环节可以任意分割的条件下,跨国公司在国内外配置生产环节的决定因素,并分析了为分割生产而进行的垂直型投资对贸易和消费者福利产生的动态影响.研究结果表明,与对垂直型投资的传统研究不同,为分割生产进行的垂直型投资和贸易的动态关系始终是替代关系,跨国公司出于自身利益考虑的分割生产行为正好使消费者福利水平达到最大.     

Pure joint production and international trade: a note

This paper applies the principles of the neo-Ricardian (or Sraffian)theory of international trade to certain joint production systems.It is shown that, in contrast with single-product systems, (i)there is not always a pattern of international specialisation,which would entail the increase of the real wage rate in botheconomies, and (ii) the ‘law of comparative advantage’has no general validity. Furthermore, not only the existenceof such a pattern of specialisation but also the validity ofthis law depend on the values of the variables of distributionof income. The analysis is wholly based on two of the numericalexamples formulated by Bidard in 1997, and further generalisedin an elementary way only when this is considered necessary.     

中国服务贸易与货物贸易因果关系分析——基于误差修正模型的中美对比分析

运用时间序列分析和因果关系分析,对比分析中美两国各自货物贸易和服务贸易之间的延迟引导关系。协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验结果明确了中国实现服务贸易与货物贸易可持续发展的内生性难题:中国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期货物出口的增长,与美国服务出口的增长最终促进同时期服务出口的增长这一内在动力差别较大。     

广西东兴市县域边境贸易可持续发展研究

通过东兴市县域边境贸易的比较优势和回归线性分析,得出县域边境贸易极易陷入比较优势陷阱,不利于县域边境贸易的可持续发展。鉴于此,提出了内生外拓式县域边境贸易的优化战略,促进县域边境贸易由比较优势向竞争优势转化,实现县域边境贸易的可持续发展。     

Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states

The paper analyses the evolution of the trade specialization pattern in the new EU member states. Relying on the empirical approach of the Markov transition matrices it analyses both the changes in the external shape of the distribution of comparative advantages and the intra‐distribution dynamics. The new members show a dynamic trade pattern: they gained comparative advantages relatively fast in sectors in which they were lagging behind at the beginning of the transition, notably in some ‘high tech’ products. In addition, many specialization improvements occurred in those items for which world demand expanded at the fastest rate over the nineties.     

Ricardian productivity differences and the gains from trade

This paper evaluates the role of sectoral heterogeneity in determining the gains from trade. We first show analytically that in the presence of sectoral Ricardian comparative advantage, a one-sector sufficient statistic formula that uses total trade volumes as a share of total absorption systematically understates the true gains from trade. Greater relative sectoral productivity differences lead to larger disparities between the gains implied by the one-sector formula and the true gains. Using data on overall and sectoral trade shares in a sample of 79 countries and 19 sectors we show that the multi-sector formula implies on average 30% higher gains from trade than the one-sector formula, and as much as 100% higher gains for some countries. We then set up and estimate a quantitative Ricardian–Heckscher–Ohlin model in which no version of the formula applies exactly, and compare a range of sufficient statistic formulas to the true gains in this model. Confirming the earlier results, formulas that do not take into account the sectoral heterogeneity understate the true gains from trade in the model by as much as two-thirds. The one-sector formulas understate the gains by more in countries with greater dispersion in sectoral productivities.     

Asymmetric trade protection leading not to productivity but to export share change

This article revisits a classical theme in economics, that is, the relationship between trade protection and economic performance, with an improved treatment of the endogeneity of tariffs and with consideration of alternative performance criteria. This paper also considers the effects of asymmetric protection, such as higher tariffs on consumer goods and lower tariffs on producer goods. Using sectoral data on Korean manufacturing during the period from 1967 to 1993, this study finds that the effect of trade protection by tariff tends to show up not in terms of total factor productivity but in terms of revealed comparative advantage and export shares of sectors. Such an effect tends to be greater in consumer goods, which are the main targets of promotion by higher tariffs. This study verifies the potentially positive role of tariffs under certain conditions, especially under discipline from world markets.     

Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach

This article adopts a nonparametric quantile causality approach to examine the causal effects of the U.S. and Japan stock markets on the stock markets of the Pacific-Rim region. This approach allows us to detect not only nonlinear causalities in conditional return (mean) and conditional volatility (variance) but also the asymmetries of causalities under extreme market conditions (bullish vs. bearish states). Our results provide significant evidence of causality in return and volatility at different points of the conditional distributions of returns, with the greater effects from the U.S. than from Japan. Asymmetric quantile causality patterns are particularly pronounced in the case of Japan.     

我国农产品国际竞争力现状分析

我国农产品在国际市场如何提高竞争力是理论界所关心的焦点。本文综合运用当前研究农产品国际竞争力的主要分析方法,主要分析了我国主要农产品的贸易竞争指数(TC指数),对主要农产品国际市场占有率进行了实证分析,并运用显性比较优势法对主要农产品国际竞争力进行了不同视角的分析,提出了一些建议。     

Vertical Innovation and Catching-Up: Implications of EU Integration for CEECs-5

We analyze the role of vertical innovation in trade patterns for developing economies trading with technologically advanced countries. A model is presented where the international diffusion of knowledge, promoted by economic integration, is the source of a technological catching up and leads to a convergence in the quality of traded goods, with a positive effect on exports. We then turn our attention on the evolution of trade between the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs-5) and their European Union partner countries, assessing whether economic integration has increase the quality of the goods produced. For the period 1995–2005, we find evidence of the increasing role of intra-industry trade and vertical differentiation and a process of specialization in higher quality products, especially in the medium- and high-skill sectors.

中国和印度贸易模式的比较研究

中国和印度作为两个较大的发展中国家,具有很多共同点,但在对外贸易上存在很大的差异。研究中国和印度对外贸易上的表现,结果发现:两个国家近年来都有较高的外贸依存度,但中国在世界出口中的比重不断上升,而印度在世界出口中所占的比重很小且保持不变;两个国家的贸易在很大程度上是产业内贸易,中国比印度出口更多复杂和精细的产品。中印两国贸易模式存在差异的主要原因是,中国较早注意利用劳动力资源禀赋发展加工贸易,印度对于外向型经济的相关政策出台较晚。     

垂直专业化贸易:理论模型与基于中国数据的实证

国际贸易理论研究的最新论题之一是对国际垂直分工以及基于垂直分工贸易的关注,本文在较为系统梳理这方面最新研究成果的基础上,从产品内国际垂直分工的角度切入,测算了中国典型年份的垂直专业化贸易程度,并对一些影响因素进行了回归分析。结果显示机械设备制造业占我国垂直专业化贸易份额的30%以上,纺织业其次;关税与垂直专业化贸易扩展呈明显的正相关联系;产业规模较小、中小企业居多的部门一般具有较高的垂直专业化程度。