Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.     

The government's time discount rate: Choices and consequences in a dynamic framework

This paper considers a closed macroeconomy where the monetary authority pursues an inflation target and policy outcomes are the consequence of a Nash game between fiscal and monetary authorities. The specification of the macroeconomic framework is characterized by nonlinearities which lead to multiple equilibria with differing stability properties. Employing a calibrated model and simulations derived using the Mathematica package, the stability properties of the economy and the likely choice of equilibrium are examined. Within this framework, the dynamic consequences of different time discount rates for the fiscal authority are investigated, both in a world of certainty and also in a world of uncertainty. It is shown that, in a world of certainty, it will be optimal to choose the fiscal authority's time discount rate equal to the market rate of interest. However, depending on the degree of uncertainty in evaluating the time discount rates of consumers and of the fiscal authority, it may be appropriate to bias the fiscal authority's discount rate above or below the expected interest rate.     

我国封闭式基金折价与基金运行绩效的相关性检验

笔者以我国的封闭式基金为样本,利用面板数据建模,综合考量了基金折价率与基金绩效指标间相关关系.研究结果发现,基金绩效指标对当期折价指标有显著的负的影响;而当期的基金折价指标不能准确预测未来绩效水平,即基金折价率并没有提供对未来基金绩效的有价值信息.     

低碳经济视角下浙江临港产业发展提升路径和策略

低碳经济发展模式是浙江产业结构优化和发展方式转变的战略取向,也是当前浙江临港产业提升的主流方向。浙江临港产业升级的关键在于充分利用其资源禀赋条件和比较优势,促使以高投入、高能耗、高排放和低技术为特征的传统制造业、贸易加工业和低端港航物流业,向高技术加工业和中高端港航现代服务业转变和延伸。     

The Obama effect? Inspiration and ACT scores

After Barack Obama’s 2008 election to the presidency of the United States, many predicted that the first Black president would inspire a generation of Black Americans, especially students. While stories of Obama inspiring individuals to overachieve are common, it remains to be seen if there was a systemic shift in Black student achievement after Obama’s election. Given the persistent racial score gap between Blacks and Whites on standardized tests, it is important to know if an inspirational figure could have a significant impact. Using ACT data from Chicago Public Schools, I find there is no evidence that Obama’s election had an impact on Black test scores. The racial ACT gap has been increasing since the beginning of the 21st century, and that trend continued after Obama was elected.     

Reform of Metropolitan Governments; Minority Perspectives; Metropolitanization and Public Services

America has often been labeled a "throw-away" society due to the large amount of products that could have been reused but are discarded from a typical household on a daily basis. This paper attempts to answer the question of why, when given two consumers with the same income level and socio-economic background, does one consumer choose to replace an older, malfunctioning household product while the other chooses to have the product repaired for further reuse. To help address this question an enhanced replacement model is presented and empirically tested. The replacement model has been around for some time, helping consumers and firms make capital budgeting decisions. This analysis can be extrapolated to the macro level where one economy with a higher societal discount rate might be more strongly characterized as a "throw-away society" than a similar economy with lower societal consumption discount rates.     

The impact of NCAA men’s basketball probations on the quantity and quality of student applications and enrollment

Collegiate sports programmes have been characterized as the front porch of a university, serving to publicize the institution and draw students to the door. Previous research in this area has indicated a positive correlation between athletic success and the quantity and quality of students attending the university. Conversely, we seek to analyse if athletic malfeasance, as measured by NCAA probations of men’s basketball programmes, negatively affects either the quantity or quality of students at a university. Our findings suggest that while basketball probations do not change the overall quantity of applications nor enrolment at a university, there is a significant adverse impact on the quality of freshman enrolling at the university as measured by Scholastic Aptitude Test scores. Our finding suggests that athletics do indeed serve as a front porch to a university and that athletic sanctions in men’s basketball have a detrimental effect on the average quality of students attending a university.     

基于随机贴现因子的人民币与新台币汇率定价

基于随机贴现因子定价理论,采用无套利定价法,推导出人民币与新台币的即期汇率与随机贴现因子、远期汇率之间的关系,并利用人民币和新台币的无本金交割远期外汇作为远期汇率,对人民币与新台币的即期汇率进行定价。实证研究结果显示,人民币与新台币的汇率主要受中国大陆地区和台湾地区的股票市场和债券市场波动的影响。用本文模型定价模拟的即期汇率与真实汇率的变动趋势较为一致,这表明本文模型可为人民币与新台币之间的双向直接兑换提供依据,进而有助于建立两岸货币清算机制。     

(En-)‘lightening’ children: Assessing the impacts of access to electricity on learning achievement levels

The welfare impacts of electrification are well documented in the literature, including the effects of electricity on school enrolment. However, the spillover effects of electrification on children's achievement levels are scarce. We use three complementary but distinct econometric models to establish a causal relationship between electrification and test scores using nationally representative household panel data from India. We find positive results irrespective of the choice of econometric model, and these results seem to be mediated by changing time-use patterns of children with access to electricity. We first exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in access to electricity due to a universal electrification program in the state of West Bengal in India and we find positive effects of electrification on children's test scores. By age group, we find that younger cohorts benefit more in terms of their reading scores than older cohorts. Then, to ascertain external validity of these results, we replicate them over a nationally representative sample using fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation and find similar results. At the intensive margin, we find that access to more hours of electricity positively affects test scores. We identify an increase in time spent by children on study-related activities as the potential channel for these results.     

Consumption externality, efficiency and optimal taxation in one-sector growth model

In an economy with consumption externalities, existing studies find that a competitive equilibrium is efficient in the long run and remains efficient in transitions if preferences are homothetic. This paper revisits the efficiency issue in an otherwise standard one-sector growth model where consumption externalities affect a utility via their effects on the time preference. We find that even if preferences are homothetic, the externality changes the marginal rate of substitution between now and future and leads to a disparity in the intertemporal elasticity of substitution between the centrally planned economy and a decentralized economy. As a result, a competitive equilibrium is inefficient in transition dynamics. We characterize an optimal tax/subsidy structure that enables the allocation in a decentralized economy to replicate the social optimum.     

我国封闭式基金折价交易的实证分析

中国封闭式基金市场基金普遍折价较为严重,并出现"封闭式基金折价之谜"所述的种种特征。通过描述我国上海证券交易所上市的封闭式基金的折价特征,用换手率、大盘指数以及剩余到期时间作为解释变量建立回归模型对基金折价率进行实证分析,表明换手率对基金折价影响显著,说明流动性因素是解释基金折价的重要原因;大盘指数对基金折价无解释能力;剩余到期时间也是影响基金折价的显著性因素。     

浅析企业如何合理运用商业折扣与现金折扣

在市场竞争激烈情况下，赊销已成为企业的一种重要的促销手段。有效的赊销政策，不仅能加强企业与各商家及消费者的感情沟通，提升品牌的知名度及销售量，还可以调整市场的供求关系，优化营销网络。如果赊销政策策划不严密，会出现企业资金周转不灵、客户拖欠货款的现象出现。这就要求企业管理部门系统评估赊销决策，要多角度考虑问题，以规范企业赊销活动。文章重点分析了商业折扣和现金折扣的税务处理与筹划，简述了现金折扣的计算与会计核算。     

从成就测试卷分析看大学英语教学考试质量

本文通过对某高校英语专业05级学生期末试卷的分析发现:此类教学考试在质量上存在一定问题.大学英语教学考试质量应引起高校英语教师的充分关注,否则,此类教学考试中学生的英语成绩就难于客观和公正.     

Monetary policy uncertainty and interest rate targeting

This paper studies the issue of monetary delegation in the case where central banker’s preferences are uncertain. A distinctive feature of the analysis is that it introduces nominal interest rate targets to the monetary delegation scheme in addition to linear contracts, quadratic punishments, and inflation targets. This paper shows that the implementation of interest rate targeting will improve social welfare since it leads the central bank to make smaller interventions, which limits the scope for the central bank’s uncertain preferences to impact the economy.     

Estimates of optimal public capital stocks in Japan using a public investment discount rate framework

The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the optimality of the level of public capital in Japan. We use a methodological approach based on Burgess's (1988) procedure for calculating the public discount rate. This approach involves estimating a production function, but does not necessarily require utility function estimation. The results indicate that, although the Japanese economy experienced a public capital deficiency over the period 1960–1982, public capital moved toward optimal levels throughout the period. First version received: March 1997/final version received: June 1998     

Are there environmental limits to cost benefit analysis?

This paper considers the problem areas found in applying cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to projects involving environmental costs or benefits. This is particularly relevant given recent moves by the UK government to include environmental valuations in CBA exercises, and in other related appraisal activities, following the publication of the Pearce Report. The paper argues that a major problem lies in placing monetary values on non-market goods. The paper also addresses the problems of (i) differences between citizen and consumer values; (ii) complexity of ecosystems; (iii) irreversibility and uniqueness; and (iv) intergenerational equity and discounting. The extent to which CBA is an institution open to capture is also discussed.