Catastrophe Theory Predicts International Concern for Global Warming

Global warming is considered one of the most far-reaching environmental problems facing human kind. Thus, understanding international concern for global warming might be the key in creating mitigation and adaptation policies. In this research we aim to assess public concern for global warming at the international level based on a large sample representing 47 nations. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to use catastrophe theory to study the influence of factors such as GDP, CO₂ emissions, environmental problems and demographic factors on global warming concern. Stochastic cusp models’ results support the affluence and post-materialism hypotheses advocated by Inglehart. However, our findings contradict the objective environmental problems hypothesis postulated by the same environmental scholar. Results also reveal the existence of a global warming environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Finally, our findings show that global warming is driven by demographic factors such as age, religiosity and educational level. The findings of this research highlight the importance of applying nonlinear dynamic techniques in investigating concern for global warming at the international level.

     

气候变暖的第一影响因素及我国的应对

全球气候变暖已是人们逐渐接受的事实,由于大气中二氧化碳等气体含量的升高引起的温室效应是导致全球气温变暖的显著原因。经过统计分析发现,大气中碳含量的增加与全球森林面积减少、化石能源燃烧增加的碳排放高度相关,但年均0.4%增速的大气中的碳含量是与按年均0.2%速度递减的全球森林面积存在显著的统计上的因果关系,乱砍滥伐、开发耕地等导致的全球森林面积的减少是大气中二氧化碳含量增加的格兰杰因果关系原因,从而构成全球变暖的第一影响因素。二氧化碳排放量的增加一直比较平稳,年增速在2.2%左右,它与大气中的碳含量的增加虽然相关,但因果关系统计上并不显著,也不是其格兰杰因果关系原因,这一结论与IPCC的报告中二氧化碳排放量是全球变暖的主要原因的结论并不完全一致。据此,我们提出中国应对全球变暖时谨防陷入"碳排放陷阱"。     

No matter how it is measured, income declines with global warming

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 °C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy.     

Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets

A cap on global warming implies a tighter carbon budget which can be enforced with a credible second-best renewable energy subsidy designed to lock up fossil fuel and curb cumulative emissions. Such a subsidy brings forward the end of the fossil fuel era but accelerates fossil fuel extraction and global warming in the short run. A weaker fossil fuel oligopoly implies that anticipation of a given global carbon budget induces fossil producers to deplete reserves more voraciously and accelerate global warming. This race to burn the last ton of carbon is more intensive for the feedback than open-loop Nash equilibrium, so that the Green Paradox effect of a renewable energy subsidy is stronger. There is an intermediate phase of limit pricing to keep renewable energy producers at bay, which becomes much more relevant when a cap on global warming is enforced. A stronger fossil fuel oligopoly lengthens the period of limit pricing and typically brings forward the carbon-free era. Finally, the mere risk of a cap on global warming being enforced at some unknown, future date makes fossil fuel extraction more voracious and accelerates global warming.     

Rethinking the costs related to global warming: A survey of the issues

One approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it. The costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation, but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty. The costs of mitigation, principally by reducing the emissions of CO₂, have been estimated using different kinds of economic models, some of the results of which have suggested that very little abatement of carbon emissions is justified before the costs of abatement exceed the benefits of it in terms of foregone damage and adaptation costs. The paper analyses the extent to which this conclusion is a function of the modelling assumptions and techniques used, rather than likely practical outcomes, with regard to the models' treatment of unemployed resources, revenue recycling, prior distortions in the economy due to the tax system and possible dynamic effects from the introduction of a carbon-energy tax. It concludes that, with different and arguably more appropriate treatment of the above issues, especially when the secondary benefits of reducing CO₂ emissions are also taken into account, it is not clear that even substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels will incur net costs, especially if there is the prospect of even moderate costs from global warming.     

全球变暖与三江平原湿地的变化

全球变暖已经成为不争的事实。沼泽湿地是各种主要温室气体的源和汇,在全球气候变化中有着特殊的地位和作用。三江平原湿地是我国最大的沼泽分布区,有着重要的生态意义。本文总结了全球气候变化大背景下,在三江平原湿地开展的科学研究的内容及成果。     

On the Value of Life in Rich and Poor Countries and Distributional Weights Beyond Utilitarianism

This paper discusses the use ofdistributional weights in CBA based on a generalBergson-Samuelson SWF. In particular it illustratessome consequences of applying a SWF characterized byconstant inequality aversion (which includes classicalutilitarianism as a special case), together with aconstant relative risk aversion utility function, whencalculating the damage costs of global warming. Itextends and clarifies earlier unintuitive results, andemphasizes that utility must be seen as fully cardinalin terms of levels in this context. In the specialcase of utilitarianism, on the other hand, it issufficient to be able to make interpersonalcomparisons of utility changes.     

低碳经济发展中几个值得注意的问题

低碳经济作为气候变暖的产物,被越来越多的人所接受和推崇,逐渐成为一种理念、价值观和衡量经济活动的标准。但当低碳经济成为气候变暖的代名词时,低碳发展背后的一些问题常常被忽视。从这一角度出发,针对低碳经济发展现状,提出几点值得注意的问题。在肯定低碳经济对人类可持续发展重大意义的同时,完善和加深人们对低碳经济的理解。     

Global Warming, Proportional Carbon Taxes, and International Fund for Atmospheric Stabilization

In this paper, we prove in terms of a simple dynamic model of global warming that sustainable time-paths of the atmospheric accumulations of carbon dioxide are obtained as the standard market equilibrium under the system of proportional carbon taxes, where the carbon taxes are levied at the rate that is proportional to the per capita national income of each country, with the discounted present value of the impact coefficient of global warming as the coefficient of proportion.     

生物碳汇类型的特性研究

温室气体增加被认为是全球变暖的主要原因,CO2是大气中最重要的温室气体,在对温室效应和全球气候变暖的贡献中,占70％。为应对全球变暖,各国采取多种措施致力于温室气体的减排增汇。减少二氧化碳温室效应,除人工减排增汇外,自然界生态系统的生物碳汇功能起着主导作用。生物碳汇主要类型有森林等陆生植物碳汇、水生高等植物和低等植物碳汇、水生高等动物碳汇等等,各种类型生物碳汇功效不尽相同,各具特性。     

Capital growth in a global warming model: will China and India sign a climate treaty?

Global warming is now recognized as a significant threat to sustainable development on an international scale. One of the key challenges in mounting a global response to it is the seeming unwillingness of the fastest growing economies such as China and India to sign a treaty that limits their emissions. The aim of this paper is to examine the differential incentives of countries on different trajectories of capital growth. A benchmark dynamic game to study global warming, introduced in Dutta and Radner (J Econ Behav Organ, 2009), is generalized to allow for exogenous capital accumulation. It is shown that the presence of capital exacerbates the “tragedy of the common”. Furthermore, even with high discount factors, the threat of reverting to the inefficient “tragedy” equilibrium is not sufficient to deter the emissions growth of the fastest growing economies—in contrast to standard folk theorem like results. However, foreign aid can help. If the slower growth economies—like the United States and Western Europe—are willing to make transfers to China and India, then the latter can be incentivized to cut emissions. Such an outcome is Pareto improving for both slower and faster growth economies.     

Global Warming and Endogenous Technological Change: Revisiting the Green Paradox

One of the most pressing policy challenges facing the world today concerns how to mitigate global warming while improving people’s well-being. The green paradox argues that increasing taxes on CO₂ emissions exacerbates global warming in the present because firms have the incentive to bring forward the extraction and sale of fossil fuels. This paper shows that whenever technological progress allows the extraction costs of fossil fuels to be reduced over time and a positive R&D subsidy is paid, a growing tax on CO₂ emissions reveals a welfare maximizing policy.     

Sustainable Development and a Dwindling Carbon Space

Curbing global warming by setting long term maxima for temperature rise or concentrations of greenhouse gases defines spaces within which further emissions of these gases are to remain (referred to here as ‘carbon spaces’). This paper addresses questions related to how to share between countries the carbon space and/or efforts to stay within it, in the perspective of sustainable development; different allocation mechanisms are reviewed, responding to criteria such as ‘responsibility’ for climate change, ‘capability’ to engage in abating it, and ‘potential’ or future contribution. The carbon space remaining at any time will depend on effective mitigation up till that time, and will condense if more stringent maxima are to be set; per capita this space becomes smaller with rising population. Sharing the carbon space in a fair way requires “convergence” of currently widely unequal per capita emissions. If the world is to stay within the carbon space consistent with <2° warming, then developed economies—the wealthiest sources of greenhouse gases should quickly and deeply engage in mitigation. Also, substantial mitigation is to take place in developing countries and that this will require substantial support to developing countries (financially, technologically). Changing development paths can make a major contribution to climate change mitigation; this requires changes in investment, production and consumption patterns. Green New Deals as proposed in the context of a widened response to the current economic crisis could become a first phase of a fundamental transition towards a decarbonised global economy worldwide. Concerns to do with equity as well as sustainability must be incorporated and integrated into coherent transitory strategies.     

Uncertainty,Learning and International Environmental Policy Coordination

In this paper we construct a simple model of global warming which captures a number of key features of the global warming problem: (i) environmental damages are related to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (ii) the global commons nature of the problem means that these are strategic interactions between the emissions policies of the governments of individual nation states; (iii) there is uncertainty about the extent of the future damages that will be incurred by each country from any given level of concentration of greenhouse gases but there is the possibility that at a future date better information about the true extent of environmental damages may become available; an important aspect of the problem is the extent to which damages in different countries may be correlated. In the first part of the paper we consider a simple model with two symmetric countries and show that the value of perfect information is an increasing function of the correlation between damages in the two countries in both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria. However, while the value of perfect information is always non-negative in the cooperative equilibrium, in the non-cooperative equilibrium there is a critical value of the correlation coefficient below which the value of perfect information will be negative. In the second part of the paper we construct an empirical model of global warming distinguishing between OECD and non-OECD countries and show that in the non-cooperative equilibrium the value of perfect information for OECD countries is negative when the correlation coefficient between environmental damages for OECD and non-OECD countries is negative. The implications of these results for international agreements are discussed.     

Fuels on the Hill

New York Times,June 27,2008 Congress has always had a soft spot for'experts'who tell members what they want to hear,whether it’s supply-side economists declaring that tax cuts increase revenue or climate-change skeptics insisting that global warming is a myth.     

Eco-efficiency approach for global warming in the context of Kyoto Mechanism

This study discusses an approach to measuring and improving the economic and ecological efficiency of Kyoto Mechanism projects. The approach consists of Global Warming Eco-Efficiency (GWEE), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) & Joint Implementation (JI) Environmental-Efficiency (EE) and CDM & JI Economic-Productivity (EP). The GWEE indicator is based on the ratio of the value added of a system to its global warming influence in order to measure the eco-efficiency of a product in terms of the global warming issue. In addition, CDM & JI EE and CDM & JI EP are proposed to measure the environmental and economic performances of CDM and JI projects, respectively. While EE is defined as the ratio of the Certified Emission Reductions (CER) obtained from a CDM project or Emission Reduction Unit (ERU) from a JI project to total global warming influence relevant to the CDM or JI implemented, EP is defined as the ratio of the total of CER profit (and ERU profit) and the sales revenue to the costs of the CDM (and JI) implemented. Then, the feasibility of these indicators is examined through a case study for the power generations in the field of alternative energy.     

Precautionary Principle and Robustness for a Stock Pollutant with Multiplicative Risk

The interest shown by policy makers and economists in the precautionary principle indicates the importance of model uncertainty in global warming policy. I show that through robust control, policy makers can implement the precautionary principle to regulate a stock pollutant, and I analyze its effect on expected steady state pollution taxes, stocks and welfare. The paper is broadly comprised of a theoretical part and an application to global warming policy. I find that: (1) an increase in either uncertainty about the model or risk about abatement cost increases expected steady state pollution taxes; (2) a robust policy is preferred for any level of model uncertainty and this preference increases for either higher model uncertainty or higher multiplicative risk and (3) the effect on expected steady state pollution taxes and stock of introducing model uncertainty is relatively small for high levels of model uncertainty. These results advocate using robust policies for a stock pollutant in the presence of model uncertainty.      

Advertising,economic development,and global warming

Advertising is tied to global warming through an endogenous growth model. The model allows for the possibility that the environment can become a source rather than a sink for greenhouse gases. Optimal control analysis of the model shows that a feasible steady state is possible for which the environment remains a sink, and identifies a sufficient condition for such to be the case. Comparative-static analysis shows that, for sufficiently small values of steady-state anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration, global surface temperature and advertising in steady state are negative functions of parameters that measure the damaging effects of global warming.     

低碳经济背景下我国平原地区生态林业建设探析——以湖南省洞庭湖区为例

随着工业经济的快速增长,经济活动所带来的大量温室气体使人类面临全球气候变暖的严重环境威胁。这一时代背景下,森林在发展低碳经济、减缓全球气候变暖进程中将发挥举足轻重的作用。文章以洞庭湖地区为例,在总结平原地区生态林业建设发展历程的基础上,针对平原地区自身实际情况,提出了进一步发展平原地区生态林业,促进低碳经济发展的相关对策建议。     

低碳经济与其他类似概念的辨析

低碳发展战略是在全球气候变暖对人类生存和发展构成严峻挑战的大背景下提出的,相对以前的生态经济、循环经济、绿色经济等概念,有必要对低碳经济的特点尤其是低碳经济与生态经济、循环经济和绿色经济的区别和联系加以分析。