Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.     

A wavelet-based panel unit-root test in the presence of an unknown structural break and cross-sectional dependency,with an application of purchasing power parity theory in developing countries

This article introduces two different non-parametric wavelet-based panel unit-root tests in the presence of unknown structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies in the data. These tests are compared with a previously suggested non-parametric wavelet test, the parameteric Im-Pesaran and Shin (IPS) test and a Wald type of test. The results from the Monte Carlo simulations clearly show that the new wavelet-ratio tests are superior to the traditional tests both in terms of size and power in panel unit-root tests because of its robustness to cross-section dependency and structural breaks. Based on an empirical Central American panel application, we can, in contrast to previous research (where bias due to structural breaks is simply disregarded), find strong, clear-cut support for purchasing power parity (PPP) in this developing region.     

虑及结构突变的我国能源需求模型研究

考虑到外部冲击有可能导致能源需求和经济增长之间关系的变化,本文基于1953--2000年的数据检测了我国能源需求和GDP之间关系发生结构突变的时机;在此基础上,运用协整技术和误差修正模型分析了我国能源需求和GDP之间的长期均衡和短期动态的关系,建立了我国能源需求模型,并将其与不考虑结构突变的能源需求模型进行比较。比较结果表明：本文所提模型更能准确反映建模样本期间能源需求和GDP之间的关系,具有更高的预测能力。     

气候变暖与城市化相关互动性分析

目前,全球城市化的步伐日益加快,城市化不仅可以促进经济的繁荣和社会的进步,但也会产生一系列不容忽哿粤墨;荔响。当前,全球气候变暖,城市化负有不可推卸的责任,而气候变暖反过来又影响着城市化的发展,成为城市化发展所面临的主要问题之一。     

A strategic analysis of global warming: Theory and some numbers

We model the global warming process as a dynamic commons game in which the players are countries, their actions at each date produce emissions of greenhouse gases, and the state variable is the current stock of greenhouse gases. The theoretical analysis is complemented by a calibration exercise. The first set of results establishes theoretically, and then with illustrative numbers, the over-emissions due to a “tragedy of the commons.” The power of simple sanctions to lower emissions and increase welfare is then examined as is the effect of cost asymmetry. Finally, a complete theoretical charactrization is provided for the best equilibrium, and it is shown that it has a very simple structure; it involves a constant emission rate through time.     

No matter how it is measured, income declines with global warming

The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 °C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy.     

基于结构突变理论的国内出游率趋势探析

通过考虑结构变化的单位根检验发现,1985～2008年的国内旅游年人均出游率是一个带有两个结构突变点的趋势平稳过程。1993年为截距突变点,2002年为截距与趋势双突变点。2003年后的出游率年均增长量远高于前期,以现有趋势看,可提前一年达到我国提出的2015年居民年均出游超过2次的发展目标。     

Spanish Imports of Manufactures and the European Union: An Empirical Assessment of the Entry

This paper investigates the consequences of Spain's accession to the European Union on its imports of manufactures. To that end the realised shares of GDP and the supplies of Spain's main trading partners in the transition period 1986–1992 are compared with the shares that are predicted by means of a model that is estimated using data that relate to the pre-integration period.     

Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries

This paper analyzes the stochastic convergence in per capita income levels among the current G-7 over the period 1900–89. We show that, in the presence of possible structural breaks, the strong condition of stationary pair-wise differences between per capita GDP holds in more cases than previously supposed. However, convergence occurs more frequently in the first part of the time sample than in the second one. First version received: June 1999 / Final version accepted: Feb. 2000     

Nuclear energy: Tenfold expansion or phase-out?

Today, consensus is strengthening that mankind ought to prevent atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from more than doubling, since such a doubling is likely to cause a significant interference with the planet's climate system, to which it might prove difficult to adapt. Nuclear energy possesses large disadvantages, among which waste, proliferation and safety. An expansion of nuclear energy would encounter great social, institutional and economic barriers. Because the 21st century requires a radical transformation of global energy production and consumption towards nonfossil fuels, however, it is one of the noncarbon emitting alternatives that, at present, deserve enhanced research and development efforts. If nuclear energy were expanded 10-fold, it could contribute significantly to mitigating carbon emissions: a 10-fold expansion of nuclear energy could avoid about 15% of cumulative carbon emissions over the period 2000–2075. Nuclear energy, however, can be no panacea for the problem of global warming. Even with a massive expansion, nuclear energy should be complemented by drastic fossil fuel decarbonization measures or the development of renewable energy resources. Preferably, a combination of both should be targeted and complemented by far-reaching efficiency and savings regimes. Since the risks for humanity resulting from climate change are high, it would be unwise to currently abandon any noncarbon energy resource, including fission. A central thrust of continued research and development into nuclear energy ought to be the design of satisfactory nuclear waste depositories and of safe reactors that are less susceptible to proliferation risks.     

‘Our daily bread’: Maurice Potron,from Catholicism to mathematical economics

Abstract

Maurice Potron (1872–1942) is a French Jesuit and mathematician whose main source of inspiration in economics is the encyclical Rerum Novarum. With virtually no knowledge in economic theory, he wrote down a linear model of production in which he formalized the notions of just prices and just wages. As early as 1911, he used the Perron–Frobenius theorem to prove the existence of a positive solution and established a duality result between the quantity side and the price side of the model. He returned to economics in the 1930s, but in both periods he failed to make a lasting impression upon economists.

JEL Classification Code: B3     

Climate Policy with Multiple Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases

This paper studies how inclusion of many sources, sinks and reservoirs -- a comprehensive approach -- affects climate policy, compared with a control merely of CO₂. Two questions of particular importance arise in such an analysis. One is how to aggregate the emissions of different climate gases, and the other is how to include all relevant measures in the analysis. To aggregate gases properly, an intertemporal analysis should be carried out. To assure that all relevant measures are included, we suggest that certain measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases are specified explicitly and evaluated together with indirect measures, such as carbon charges. A numerical analysis based on an optimal control model indicates that direct measures may play an important role in the design of climate policy, especially for the control of the emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO₂. Similar to other studies of the time-path for abatement efforts, the bulk of abatement should be taken by the end of the planning period. This result is significantly strengthened if gases with short life-times in the atmosphere, such as methane, are subject to control.     

东北地区净第一性生产力对气候变暖的响应研究

净第一件生产力是标志一个地区绿色植物生产力水平的上限和衡量土地承载力的重要指标。本文根据Miami模型对东北地区净第一性生产力进行估算，并结合GCMS模式提供的气候情景（Climatescenario）探讨东北地区净第一性生产力对气候变暖的响应。     

低碳经济下中国零售业发展的对策

“低碳经济”是以低能耗、低污染为基础的绿色经济,是应对气候变暖的必然选择。中国零售业积极发展“低碳经济”是适应国际政治经济发展、应对国内外同行竞争的需要;是节约成本,刺激新的经济增长点的需要。中国零售业应从政策层面、技术层面、管理层面等多方面入手,制定策略,发展低碳经济。     

Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach

This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation.