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1.
This article introduces two different non-parametric wavelet-based panel unit-root tests in the presence of unknown structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies in the data. These tests are compared with a previously suggested non-parametric wavelet test, the parameteric Im-Pesaran and Shin (IPS) test and a Wald type of test. The results from the Monte Carlo simulations clearly show that the new wavelet-ratio tests are superior to the traditional tests both in terms of size and power in panel unit-root tests because of its robustness to cross-section dependency and structural breaks. Based on an empirical Central American panel application, we can, in contrast to previous research (where bias due to structural breaks is simply disregarded), find strong, clear-cut support for purchasing power parity (PPP) in this developing region. 相似文献
2.
There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample. 相似文献
3.
4.
《China Economic Journal》2013,6(1):17-28
The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series. 相似文献
5.
目前,全球城市化的步伐日益加快,城市化不仅可以促进经济的繁荣和社会的进步,但也会产生一系列不容忽哿粤墨;荔响。当前,全球气候变暖,城市化负有不可推卸的责任,而气候变暖反过来又影响着城市化的发展,成为城市化发展所面临的主要问题之一。 相似文献
6.
Pin Ng 《Ecological Economics》2011,70(5):963-970
The contemporaneous relationship between temperature and income is important because it enables economists to estimate the economic impact of global warming without assuming a structural model. Until recently, empirical evidence generally suggests that there is a negative relationship between temperature and income, and, therefore, global warming has an adverse impact on economic activity. However, Nordhaus (2006) argues that the temperature-income relationship depends on how income is measured. We show in this paper that the results of Nordhaus (2006) may be due to an omitted-variable problem. Based on a well-motivated temperature-income model, we find that the relationship between temperature and income is not dependent on income measurement. Our regression results show that the adverse impact of an increase of 1 °C in temperature can be as much as a 3% decrease in total income for the G-7 nations. Therefore, our results suggest an aggressive climate mitigation policy. 相似文献
7.
A strategic analysis of global warming: Theory and some numbers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We model the global warming process as a dynamic commons game in which the players are countries, their actions at each date produce emissions of greenhouse gases, and the state variable is the current stock of greenhouse gases. The theoretical analysis is complemented by a calibration exercise. The first set of results establishes theoretically, and then with illustrative numbers, the over-emissions due to a “tragedy of the commons.” The power of simple sanctions to lower emissions and increase welfare is then examined as is the effect of cost asymmetry. Finally, a complete theoretical charactrization is provided for the best equilibrium, and it is shown that it has a very simple structure; it involves a constant emission rate through time. 相似文献
8.
Paul Ekins 《Environmental and Resource Economics》1995,6(3):231-277
One approach to the economic analysis of global warming seeks to balance the costs of damage from or adaptation to it with the costs of mitigating it. The costs of adaptation and damage have been estimated using techniques of environmental evaluation, but are subject to a wide margin of uncertainty. The costs of mitigation, principally by reducing the emissions of CO2, have been estimated using different kinds of economic models, some of the results of which have suggested that very little abatement of carbon emissions is justified before the costs of abatement exceed the benefits of it in terms of foregone damage and adaptation costs. The paper analyses the extent to which this conclusion is a function of the modelling assumptions and techniques used, rather than likely practical outcomes, with regard to the models' treatment of unemployed resources, revenue recycling, prior distortions in the economy due to the tax system and possible dynamic effects from the introduction of a carbon-energy tax. It concludes that, with different and arguably more appropriate treatment of the above issues, especially when the secondary benefits of reducing CO2 emissions are also taken into account, it is not clear that even substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels will incur net costs, especially if there is the prospect of even moderate costs from global warming. 相似文献
9.
《Research in Economics》2017,71(2):199-211
This paper posits the conceptually useful allegory of a futuristic “World Climate Assembly” that votes on global carbon emissions via the basic principle of majority rule. Two variants are considered. One is to vote on a universal price (or tax) that is internationally harmonized, but the proceeds from which are domestically retained. The other is to vote on the overall quantity of total worldwide emissions, which are then distributed for free (via a pre-decided fractional subdivision formula) as individual allowance permits that are subsequently marketed in an international cap-and-trade system. The model of the paper suggests that the majority-voted price is likely to be less distortionary and easier to enact than the majority-voted total quantity of permits. Some possible implications for climate-change negotiations are noted. 相似文献
10.
甘伦知 《生态经济(学术版)》2010,(2):28-31
通过考虑结构变化的单位根检验发现,1985~2008年的国内旅游年人均出游率是一个带有两个结构突变点的趋势平稳过程。1993年为截距突变点,2002年为截距与趋势双突变点。2003年后的出游率年均增长量远高于前期,以现有趋势看,可提前一年达到我国提出的2015年居民年均出游超过2次的发展目标。 相似文献
11.
This paper investigates the consequences of Spain's accession to the European Union on its imports of manufactures. To that end the realised shares of GDP and the supplies of Spain's main trading partners in the transition period 1986–1992 are compared with the shares that are predicted by means of a model that is estimated using data that relate to the pre-integration period. 相似文献
12.
Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper analyzes the stochastic convergence in per capita income levels among the current G-7 over the period 1900–89.
We show that, in the presence of possible structural breaks, the strong condition of stationary pair-wise differences between
per capita GDP holds in more cases than previously supposed. However, convergence occurs more frequently in the first part
of the time sample than in the second one.
First version received: June 1999 / Final version accepted: Feb. 2000 相似文献
13.
Today, consensus is strengthening that mankind ought to prevent atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from more than doubling, since such a doubling is likely to cause a significant interference with the planet's climate system, to which it might prove difficult to adapt. Nuclear energy possesses large disadvantages, among which waste, proliferation and safety. An expansion of nuclear energy would encounter great social, institutional and economic barriers. Because the 21st century requires a radical transformation of global energy production and consumption towards nonfossil fuels, however, it is one of the noncarbon emitting alternatives that, at present, deserve enhanced research and development efforts. If nuclear energy were expanded 10-fold, it could contribute significantly to mitigating carbon emissions: a 10-fold expansion of nuclear energy could avoid about 15% of cumulative carbon emissions over the period 2000–2075. Nuclear energy, however, can be no panacea for the problem of global warming. Even with a massive expansion, nuclear energy should be complemented by drastic fossil fuel decarbonization measures or the development of renewable energy resources. Preferably, a combination of both should be targeted and complemented by far-reaching efficiency and savings regimes. Since the risks for humanity resulting from climate change are high, it would be unwise to currently abandon any noncarbon energy resource, including fission. A central thrust of continued research and development into nuclear energy ought to be the design of satisfactory nuclear waste depositories and of safe reactors that are less susceptible to proliferation risks. 相似文献
14.
Christian Bidard 《European Journal of the History of Economic Thought》2013,20(1):123-154
Abstract Maurice Potron (1872–1942) is a French Jesuit and mathematician whose main source of inspiration in economics is the encyclical Rerum Novarum. With virtually no knowledge in economic theory, he wrote down a linear model of production in which he formalized the notions of just prices and just wages. As early as 1911, he used the Perron–Frobenius theorem to prove the existence of a positive solution and established a duality result between the quantity side and the price side of the model. He returned to economics in the 1930s, but in both periods he failed to make a lasting impression upon economists. JEL Classification Code: B3 相似文献
15.
This paper provides a survey on recent developments in structural changes for high dimensional factor models. Compared with conventional low-dimensional time series, structural changes in factor models are more complicated due to the unobservability of factors and factor loadings. The following topics are covered in this survey: the identification conditions for the structural changes in the factor loadings, different impacts of big and small breaks in factor models, tests for structural changes in the factor loadings of a specific variable, tests for structural changes in the factor loading matrix, joint tests for structural changes in the factor loadings and coefficients in factor-augmented regressions, tests for smooth changes in the factor loadings, estimation of break dates, and model selection in factor models with structural changes via the shrinkage method. 相似文献
16.
H. Asbjørn Aaheim 《Environmental and Resource Economics》1999,14(3):413-430
This paper studies how inclusion of many sources, sinks and reservoirs -- a comprehensive approach -- affects climate policy, compared with a control merely of CO2. Two questions of particular importance arise in such an analysis. One is how to aggregate the emissions of different climate gases, and the other is how to include all relevant measures in the analysis. To aggregate gases properly, an intertemporal analysis should be carried out. To assure that all relevant measures are included, we suggest that certain measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases are specified explicitly and evaluated together with indirect measures, such as carbon charges. A numerical analysis based on an optimal control model indicates that direct measures may play an important role in the design of climate policy, especially for the control of the emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2. Similar to other studies of the time-path for abatement efforts, the bulk of abatement should be taken by the end of the planning period. This result is significantly strengthened if gases with short life-times in the atmosphere, such as methane, are subject to control. 相似文献
17.
东北地区净第一性生产力对气候变暖的响应研究 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
净第一件生产力是标志一个地区绿色植物生产力水平的上限和衡量土地承载力的重要指标。本文根据Miami模型对东北地区净第一性生产力进行估算,并结合GCMS模式提供的气候情景(Climatescenario)探讨东北地区净第一性生产力对气候变暖的响应。 相似文献
18.
The sweetener market in the United States is complicated because of the substitution possibilities between high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and sugar. This study focuses on the relationship between raw sugar prices and the prices for high fructose corn syrup. Sugar and HFCS are imperfect substitutes for several industrial uses. Sugar can be used for all industrial uses, but HFCS has limited uses. This study uses cointegration analysis to examine the relationship between sugar and HFCS prices as well as the relationship between raw and refined sugar prices over time. The results indicate that sugar and HFCS prices move together for the 1983–1996 period. However, after this time period HFCS prices no longer follow sugar prices. 相似文献
19.
低碳经济下中国零售业发展的对策 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
“低碳经济”是以低能耗、低污染为基础的绿色经济,是应对气候变暖的必然选择。中国零售业积极发展“低碳经济”是适应国际政治经济发展、应对国内外同行竞争的需要;是节约成本,刺激新的经济增长点的需要。中国零售业应从政策层面、技术层面、管理层面等多方面入手,制定策略,发展低碳经济。 相似文献
20.
Ankita Mishra 《Applied economics》2018,50(3):268-286
This article examines the conditional income convergence hypothesis for 17 major states in India for the period of 1960–2012. Univariate stationarity tests without structural breaks provide evidence against the convergence hypothesis. However, when two or more structural breaks are applied in per capita income series, the incomes of around 11–13 states are found to stochastically converge to the national average. This finding supports the convergence hypothesis for the panel as a whole after accounting for two data features, cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks in incomes, using a unified panel stationarity testing framework. 相似文献