非完全竞争市场假设在CGE模型中的引入及应用

通过对部门生产函数及相关参数、系数的改造,将非完全竞争市场条件引入CGE模型,并模拟在完全竞争与不完全竞争两个不同市场结构下国际油价上升对我国经济的影响.结果表明,当油品市场设定为不完全竞争时,面对国际油价上升的冲击,GDP下降的程度大于完全竞争的情况.因此随着油品市场逐渐开放,油品市场的产出增加,可以增强我国石油产业和总体经济应对国际油价上升冲击的能力,应继续推动我国石油产业市场自由化的进程.     

Dynamic modelling of pollution abatement in a CGE framework

This paper deals with the specification of pollution abatement in dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and analyses the dynamic feedback mechanisms between economy and abatement in the context of environmental policy. A Ramsey-type economic model is presented, in which bottom-up technical and economic information on abatement techniques is integrated in a top-down dynamic CGE context. The practical suitability of the specification is illustrated by an empirical application for climate change and acidification in the Netherlands. The results show that a mixture of some slowdown of economic growth, a substantial restructuring of the economy and implementation of most technical abatement measures is optimal.     

The effects of multinationals on host economies: A CGE approach

This paper offers a new perspective regarding the effects on a host economy of the entry of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, through a version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model extended to incorporate MNEs. The analysis is applied to the Czech Republic, a country that has received substantial inflows of foreign direct investment in the last few years. A special attention has been paid to the issue of profit repatriation. We find that the negative effects of profit repatriation are sizeable, and might even offset the positive impact of the entry of MNEs.     

基于可计算的一般均衡模型的我国碳税政策“双重红利”研究

建立了分析我国减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税的可计算的一般均衡模型,分析碳税政策的双重红利。结果显示:为减少二氧化碳排放而征收碳税,对社会经济变量将造成一定的负面影响。保持财政中性,在征收碳税的时候,减少居民或者企业间接税,都可以在减少二氧化碳排放量的同时提高社会福利或者保持社会福利变化不大,实现碳税的双重红利。但是在保持财政中性,在征收碳税的同时减少企业所得税,虽然减少了二氧化碳排放量,居民的社会福利却有了更大程度的下降。     

Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement (FTA) that is currently under negotiation among China and 15 other Asian countries. It is one of several potential mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region. In this paper we investigate the potential effect of RCEP on foreign direct investment (FDI) with a focus on China using an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is built on the theory of firm heterogeneity extended to FDI. The framework is able to capture FDI increases along both the intensive and extensive margins. Liberalization under RCEP is simulated as impacting on FDI both directly through FDI liberalization and indirectly through trade liberalization. Our simulation results suggest that RCEP would encourage significant increases in FDI to China through both these pathways. While competition from imports drives out the least productive foreign owned firms, export expansion of firms using FDI will lead to an overall increase in foreign investment. In addition, the facilitation of trade in intermediate goods tends to promote vertical FDI. The direct FDI effect from investment liberalization will evidently promote FDI from partners. Projected economic gains to China from RCEP are in the range of US$103–214 billion, or 1.1–2.2% of GDP.     

能源要素价格改革对宏观经济影响的CGE分析

当前国内要素价格改革呼声很高,其中能源价格改革更为迫切。本文利用MCHUGE模型,研究提高能源价格对中国经济发展的影响。研究表明,提高能源价格在短期和长期均能显著降低中国能源强度,其原因在于能源价格的提高优化了中国经济产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在国内生产总值中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。但是能源价格提高对宏观经济带来了较大的负面影响,其导致的出口下降和投资需求下降分别是短期和长期国内生产总值下降的主要原因。     

燃油税改革对我国节能减排影响的动态CGE研究

2009年1月1日起我国实施成品油税费改革。燃油税是一种经济信号,其变动会引起一个经济体全方位的反应。采用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型对燃油税改革对我国节能减排的影响进行仿真研究。研究表明,燃油税改革在短期和长期均能显著降低中国的能源强度,其原因是燃油税改革优化了中国经济的产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。     

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single‐country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's real GDP and total employment are expected to rise by small degrees, while the general price level may decline by a few percentage points. Total imports would rise by more than 10%, whereas total exports would increase far less. China's trade surplus is, therefore, likely to shrink substantially and its dependence upon foreign trade is likely to rise by a few percentage points. A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the simulation results. A comparison with other CGE studies on China's trade liberalization also shows the plausibility of this study's predictions.

JEL Classification: F17, C68     

Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach

We estimated the economic costs and impacts of future sea-level rise (SLR) and storm surge due to climate change in Canada’s coastal provinces using regional, dynamic computable general equilibrium models that track provincial welfare, GDP, trade, prices and inputs over the 2009–2054 period. We also assessed the economic costs of coastal adaptation investments, to determine whether such investments can be justified on economic grounds. Results indicated that SLR and storm surge could cost Canada in the range of $4.6–$25.5 billion in present value welfare, and between $53.7 and $108.7 billion in present value GDP. We found significant variation in costs and impacts across coastal provinces, with some provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador experiencing only marginal costs/impacts, and others such as British Columbia experiencing costs as high as $21 billion in welfare over the period. Coastal adaptation investments were supported on economics grounds. Overall, this study provides the first (and preliminary) provincial economic impact estimates of climate-induced SLR and storm surge, as well as adaptation investments, in Canada. Additional research is needed to refine the analysis in order to produce reliable estimates that can be used to guide coastal adaptation policies in Canada.     

Growth versus equity: A CGE analysis for effects of factor-biased technical progress on economic growth and employment

With factor-biased technical progress described as labor-saving and skill-biased technical changes, there are concerns that technological innovation can lead to unemployment and widen inequality in the economy. This study explores impacts of factor-biased technical changes on the economic system in terms of economic growth, employment, and distribution, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that technological innovation contributes to higher level of economic growth with productivity improvements. However, our analysis suggests that economic growth accompanied by skill- and capital-biased technical progress disproportionately increases demand for capital and high-skilled labor over skilled and unskilled labor. This shift in the value-added composition is found to deepen income inequality, as more people in higher income groups benefit from skill premium and capital earnings. Our results suggest that policymakers should prepare a wide range of policy measures, such as reforms in educational programs and taxation systems, in order to ensure sustainable growth.     

Imperfect competition and capital accumulation: the role of price normalization

We consider a capital-accumulation model with infinitely lived households and two production sectors. The intermediate-good sector is characterized by perfect competition, a constant-returns-to-scale technology, and production externalities. The final-good sector is a monopoly operating under constant returns to scale. We analyze the general equilibrium in the sense of Gabszewicz and Vial [Journal of Economic Theory (1972) 4: 381–400] for this economy and different price-normalization rules. It is shown that the qualitative behavior of the equilibrium paths depends crucially on the chosen normalization rule. In particular, whether equilibria are monotonic or oscillating and whether indeterminacy occurs or not may depend on the choice of the numeraire.     

Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models

The computer implementation of any large economic model is usually a very expensive and time consuming task. This paper describes a software package, called GEMPACK, which is being developed specifically to reduce dramatically the research time, effort and cost required to set up one solution method (the Johansen method) on an actual computer. Existing features of GEMPACK are described in detail, as are developments planned for the near future. The software is model-independent, in that it works for a wide class of economic models, irrespective of the form of the equations or underlying theory. GEMPACK is portable to most mini and mainframe computers, because it has been written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77, with such portability as a primary requirement. Several models, including the Dervis, de Melo and Robinson model of Korea, have been implemented using GEMPACK.     

国债旅游基础设施投资效应：基于CGE模型的研究

利用国债资金进行旅游基础设施建设所产生的经济效应问题是政府和学术界都极为关心的重大现实问题。在构建“整合”的旅游生产函数的基础上,利用CGE模型对2000--2005年中国国债旅游基础设施投资对于旅游业以及全社会价格水平、总产出、总消费、居民收入、就业以及私人部门投资等方面的经济影响进行了定量研究。研究表明,国债旅游基础设施对于中国旅游业以及社会经济的发展均产生了积极的影响,有必要继续实施,为充分发挥基础设施条件改善对于目的地社会经济发展的推动作用,各地在旅游发展战略和旅游规划制定方面也需要有所调整。     

管子轻重理论的均衡思想

<管子>后16篇,也称轻重篇,着重阐述了轻重理论,是中国古代特有的一种经济管理思想.前人学者大多从供求规律与货币数量论等角度对商品之间的轻重规律进行阐释.文章则重点阐述了轻重规律所蕴含的均衡思想,并且在阐述管子轻重理论中蕴含的局部均衡、动态均衡、一般均衡思想后,借用现代经济学的分析工具,试图重建管子轻重规律的均衡分析.西方经济学直到1769年以后才在经济学中引入均衡的概念,此研究将进一步丰富中国经济思想的研究.     

资源税改革中的税率选择:一个资源CGE模型的分析

长期以来,资源税改革一直受到社会各方关注,目前相关研究成果多集中于定性分析,对资源税税率的设置更缺乏定量研究.本文构建资源CGE模型,引入资源账户,通过枚举法对资源税对资源税税率设置的合理范围进行定量分析,研究资源税税率设置的合理区间.研究结果表明:如资源税税率设置合理,可以有效增加资源税税收收入,大幅减少资源消耗,增加社会福利,促进社会经济的可持续发展.     

The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.     

Modeling the impacts of international climate change policies in a CGE context: The use of the GTAP-E model

The anticipated implications of international environmental policy strategies are critical for the success or failure of international negotiations on climate change policies. In this paper, we discuss the complex modeling issues related to the incorporation of international environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version of this model addressing environmental and energy problems, viz. the GTAP-E model. Various numerical results of simulation experiments with this model at a worldwide scale will be presented. In particular, we will address the question how to include the frequently discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanisms in a computable general equilibrium model such as the GTAP-E model.     

Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 2020, China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect. This paper, based on Energy, Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (TECGE), a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China’s future macro economy. By setting up four scenarios, namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons, 10.7 billion tons, 10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030, 2027, 2025, and 2023, it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy. The findings show that, compared with the 2030 benchmark, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the higher the carbon tax prices, and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables, such as aggregate consumption, aggregate imports and exports decline, the share of the tertiary industry increases. That is, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the more macroeconomic variables decline, and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises. This paper, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect, makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.     

The dynamics of the house price-to-income ratio: Theory and evidence

The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive, and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest.