Empirical study on the determinants of CO2 emissions: evidence from OECD countries

This article empirically investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for CO₂ emissions in the cases of 11 OECD countries by taking into account the role of nuclear energy in electricity production. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration is employed as the estimation method. Our results indicate that energy consumption has a positive impact on CO₂ emissions in most countries in the study. However, the impact of trade is not statistically significant. The results provide evidence for the role of nuclear power in reducing CO₂ emissions only in some countries. Additionally, although the estimated long-run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the EKC hypothesis in Finland, Japan, Korea and Spain, only Finland's EKC turning point is inside the sample period of the study, providing poor evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.     

经济增长与能源消费之动态因果关系分析——基于东北三省的样本检验

本文应用ARDL方法,从实证角度分析了东北三省各自能源消费与经济增长之间的因果关系.结果显示:黑、辽两省在长期及短期内都存在经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系,而辽、吉两省则存在能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系.对此,笔者提出了"开源节流"的政策建议.     

Multivariate filter estimation and ARDL model analysis of China’s potential output

In this article, we apply a new multivariate filter approach to estimate China’s potential output. Furthermore, we build an ARDL model to analyse the influence on potential growth caused by important factors that contribute to estimation and China’s development. Our results show that the current economic slowdown is not a cyclical phenomenon and China’s potential growth has declined since 2010. We also show that fixed asset investment and trade, which have a long-run relationship with potential output, exert negative long-run effect on potential growth justifying the implementation of China’s recent supply-side reforms.     

Testing the Uzawa–Lucas model with OECD data

The paper tests the Uzawa–Lucas model of endogenous growth using a modified Granger-causality test and panel data for 20 OECD countries. The results favour the human capital augmented endogenous growth model against both the exogenous growth model à la Solow and endogenous growth models of the AK type.     

What can Trigger the Resumption of Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy like Greece: Exports or Inward FDI?

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of exports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development in Greece, in the long and short run, from 1980 to 2013. This study applies the Ng-Perron and DF-GLS unit root tests to determine the level of integration as well as the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to identify the long-run relationship. Our analysis confirms the long-run relationship between inward FDI, exports and national income. Our results imply that any policy by the Greek Government aimed at boosting economic development through exports will have to be considered for the long run since Greek authorities cannot rely on exports in the short run. However, inward FDI appears more efficient than exports as far as boosting economic progress in the short run.     

OECD新范本强制性仲裁条款解析：主要特点及其评价

OECD新修订范本中增加的强制性仲裁规定,代表着改进国际税收争端处理程序的最新进展和趋势。通过对OECD新范本的强制性仲裁条款的制度特色的介绍和分析,对新范本的现实价值进行评价,旨在为预测国际税收争端处理机制的发展方向提供借鉴。     

公共研究的治理:OECD国家经验与启示

我国在公共研究治理方面的体制还不健全,从而阻碍了公共研究的进一步发展。本文首先分析了OECD国家在公共研究中优先领域的设置、项目资助的内部机制等方面的优势．概括总结了OECD国家在公共研究治理方面的可借鉴之处,最后对我国公共研究政策提出了建议。     

降低中小企业税收遵从成本的所得税政策研究——以OECD国家的税收简化为例

税收规则的复杂性是影响遵从成本的重要因素,通过简化政策降低中小企业的税收遵从成本是OECD国家税收制度的一个普遍特征。在所得税申报方面,OECD国家的中小企业无须根据所得税法的一般规定计算,不同企业可以根据雇员总数、电力消耗和其他与收入相联系的变量为指数来计算所得税额,或者根据营业额以及进行成本调整后的净营业额来计算所得税,不少国家还专门针对中小企业实施了简化会计账目、延长纳税期限等所得税简化政策,我国可以借鉴这些政策降低中小企业对所得税的遵从成本,并促进中小企业的发展。     

Pollution,energy use,GDP and trade: estimating the long-run relationship for Vietnam

Since the beginning of economic reform in the 1980s and, in particular, with its openness to international trade accelerating since the 1990s, the Vietnamese economy has registered significant growth. At the same time, energy consumption and the level of pollution in Vietnam has also increased. This article aims to focus on the link between openness to trade and pollution in Vietnam. Due to lack of data, very few existing studies have focused on Vietnam. Using annual data from1980 to 2011 and employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, based on an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model, we find that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship amongst pollution, openness to trade, energy consumption and real national income in Vietnam. This conclusion continues to hold when the possibility of a structural break in the relationship is allowed for using the Gregory-Hansen approach to cointegration. Analysis of the cointegration relationship suggests that, in response to any exogenous shock to the system, adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium is very fast.     

中国能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长间存在着密切的关系。节能减排政策的施行是否会影响到我国的经济增长,能源消费结构与能源消费间有着怎样的联系,这些都是在节能减排政策制定中亟待解决的问题。本文利用1978-2007年的样本数据,使用ARDL模型方法对以上三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。发现经济增长对能源消费和能源结构在长期和短期内都有显著影响,且能源消费和能源消费结构间也存在相互的影响。未发现能源消费和能源消费结构对经济增长的长期影响。推行适宜的节能减排政策不会阻滞我国的经济增长,而节能减排政策的一项重点应该是能源消费结构的优化调整。     

Testing the Bhaduri–Marglin model with OECD panel data

The Bhaduri–Marglin model is a post-Kaleckian model that allows one to study the impact of a functional income distribution on the growth in demand. Over recent years, a number of empirical studies based on this model have aimed at determining whether a redistribution towards profits harms or fosters demand growth. The focus so far has been on a very limited number of countries. This paper is the first to test the Bhaduri–Marglin model with panel data. It finds that demand growth is reduced by a redistribution towards profits in the average OECD country. Productivity growth is also impaired.     

Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach

This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-four OECD countries from 1960 to 1997. A new panel data approach is applied which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Two different models are used. A bivariate (GDP–exports) model and a trivariate (GDP–exports–openness) model, both without and with a linear time trend. In each case the analysis focusses on direct, one-period-ahead causality between exports and GDP. The results indicate one-way causality from exports to GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden, one-way causality from GDP to exports in Austria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway and Portugal, two-way causality between exports and growth in Canada, Finland and the Netherlands, while in the case of Australia, Korea, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the USA there is no evidence of causality in either direction.     

中国货币政策中介目标与经济增长

货币政策中介目标是货币政策体系中的重要组成部分,合适的货币中介目标对保持国民经济持续稳定增长具有重要意义。采用基于ARDL模型的协整分析方法,对货币中介目标与中国国民经济增长的关系进行了深入研究,发现通货膨胀率对国民收入的影响幅度最大、货币供应量对国民收入的影响次之,而利率对国民收入的影响相对较小。认为在目前条件下,我国应从过于强调货币供应量指标,转向综合利用多种金融变量来指导货币政策的操作,但在将来市场体系完善后,可考虑采用通货膨胀作为货币政策中介目标。     

The causal dynamics between renewable energy,real GDP,emissions and oil prices: evidence from OECD countries

This study extends the empirical literature on the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the case of 25 OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. Preliminary analysis suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel data. As a result, second-generation panel unit root tests of Smith et al. (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are undertaken to find the respective variables that are integrated of order one. Panel cointegration and error correction modelling reveal that a long-run relationship exists between renewable energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The panel error correction model shows that a feedback relationship exists among the variables.     

TRB技术分析规则在期货市场的有效性检验

本文以大连大豆期货为标的物,采用TRB(Trading Range Break,交易区间突破)技术分析规则为主要研究方法,实证检验了其在期货市场投资中的获利能力。在我们选定的策略中,中线获利能力最强,即使考虑交易成本后仍不能消除这种超额收益。同时Bootstrap模拟检验的结果也显示,这种获利能力不能通过其他一些收益率序列得到解释。     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.