Empirical study on the determinants of CO2 emissions: evidence from OECD countries

This article empirically investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for CO₂ emissions in the cases of 11 OECD countries by taking into account the role of nuclear energy in electricity production. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration is employed as the estimation method. Our results indicate that energy consumption has a positive impact on CO₂ emissions in most countries in the study. However, the impact of trade is not statistically significant. The results provide evidence for the role of nuclear power in reducing CO₂ emissions only in some countries. Additionally, although the estimated long-run coefficients of income and its square satisfy the EKC hypothesis in Finland, Japan, Korea and Spain, only Finland's EKC turning point is inside the sample period of the study, providing poor evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis.     

Macroeconomic performance and convergence in OECD countries

This paper investigates the robustness of the correlation between growth and a set of variables which comprises accumulation rates in human and physical capital and medium term macroeconomic indicators in OECD countries. We include these variables as additional regressors in the standard growth equation that comes from the human capital-augmented Solow model. Our results show that variables related to medium term macroeconomic performance affect both growth and convergence. In some periods these variables even outperform the explanatory power of the conventional growth variables such as the accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that it is difficult to analyse the contribution to growth of any particular macroeconomic indicator in an isolated way. Rather, these effects should be studied in a framework that accounts for the macroeconomic performance of a country.     

Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach

This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-four OECD countries from 1960 to 1997. A new panel data approach is applied which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Two different models are used. A bivariate (GDP–exports) model and a trivariate (GDP–exports–openness) model, both without and with a linear time trend. In each case the analysis focusses on direct, one-period-ahead causality between exports and GDP. The results indicate one-way causality from exports to GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden, one-way causality from GDP to exports in Austria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway and Portugal, two-way causality between exports and growth in Canada, Finland and the Netherlands, while in the case of Australia, Korea, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the USA there is no evidence of causality in either direction.     

Modelling the housing market in OECD countries

Recent episodes of housing bubbles, which occurred in several economies after the burst of the United States housing market, suggest studying the evolution of housing prices from a global perspective. We utilise a theoretical model for the purposes of this contribution, which identifies the main drivers of housing price appreciation, such as, for example, income, residential investment, financial elements, fiscal policy and demographics. In a second stage of our analysis, we test our theoretical hypothesis by means of a sample of 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 2011. We employ the vector error correction econometric technique in terms of our empirical analysis, which permits us to model the long-run equilibrium relationship and the short-run dynamics, which also helps to account for endogeneity and reverse causality problems.     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

The causal dynamics between renewable energy,real GDP,emissions and oil prices: evidence from OECD countries

This study extends the empirical literature on the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the case of 25 OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. Preliminary analysis suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel data. As a result, second-generation panel unit root tests of Smith et al. (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are undertaken to find the respective variables that are integrated of order one. Panel cointegration and error correction modelling reveal that a long-run relationship exists between renewable energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The panel error correction model shows that a feedback relationship exists among the variables.     

Globalisation, capital mobility and tax competition: theory and evidence for OECD countries

Are the predictions of tax competition theory wrong? While the tax competition literature predicts that taxes on income from capital decrease with increasing globalisation, past empirical studies on various data find contradicting evidence. By using different data and additional elements of economic theory, this paper aims to challenge the empirical contributions. For a panel of 14 OECD countries and for the period 1967–1996, we find that globalisation has indeed a negative and significant impact on corporate taxes. Furthermore, globalisation tends to raise labour taxes and social expenditures. As a consequence, the so-called “efficiency” and “compensation” hypotheses of globalisation are not competing, but rather, both appear to apply at the same time. Efficiency has an impact on the tax-mix, whereas compensation is provided through increased social expenditures.     

Foreign investments in real estate,economic growth and property prices: evidence from OECD countries

The last two decades have witnessed a growth in foreign direct investments (FDI) in the real estate sector in most of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries. It is argued that FDI in the real estate sector may improve economic growth in recipient economies. On the other hand, property prices have increased considerably in OECD countries in recent years and some argue that FDI in real estate is one of the driving forces of high property prices in these countries. The purpose of this study is to analyze the interrelationship between FDI in the real estate sector, economic growth, and property prices while controlling for interest rate and inflation. We use observations from a set of OECD countries for the period between 1995 and 2008. The dynamic interrelationship is analyzed by applying a panel cointegration technique. Our empirical results show that FDI in real estate do not cause property price appreciations and also do not contribute to economic growth in OECD countries in the short run and the long run.     

中国能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长间存在着密切的关系。节能减排政策的施行是否会影响到我国的经济增长,能源消费结构与能源消费间有着怎样的联系,这些都是在节能减排政策制定中亟待解决的问题。本文利用1978-2007年的样本数据,使用ARDL模型方法对以上三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。发现经济增长对能源消费和能源结构在长期和短期内都有显著影响,且能源消费和能源消费结构间也存在相互的影响。未发现能源消费和能源消费结构对经济增长的长期影响。推行适宜的节能减排政策不会阻滞我国的经济增长,而节能减排政策的一项重点应该是能源消费结构的优化调整。     

Assessing economic complexity as interindustry connectedness in nine OECD countries

Economic complexity can be defined as the level of interdependence between the component parts of an economy. In input–output systems interindustry connectedness is a crucial feature of analysis, and there are many different methods of measuring it. Most of the measures however, have important drawbacks to be used as a good indicator of economic complexity, because they were not explicitly made with this purpose in mind. In this paper, we present, discuss and compare empirically different indexes of economic complexity as intersectoral connectedness, using the inter-industry tables of nine OECD countries. According to most of the measures of connectedness large economies (USA, Japan) tend to be more complex than small economies (for example, Denmark). But if another type of measures is considered, the opposite conclusion is drawn, signalling a hidden characteristic of interdependence that so far has not been detected by conventional measures. This result should qualify the widespread idea that more interconnected productive structures propagate more intensely exogenous shocks and/or economic policy measures.     

Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries

In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation.     

Energy consumption,economic growth and environmental degradation in OECD countries

The interdependence among energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation has become an important public policy priority among OECD countries. Yet, the related literature provides conflicting results when describing the dynamic nature of such a relationship and the way it affects countries' development path. Using a sample of 35 OECD countries over the period 2000–2014, we find that economic growth and energy consumption patterns contribute to the enhancement of countries' environmental performance levels. In contrast to a large stream of empirical research, our findings highlight that countries' economic development path and their energy consumption patterns have started to align with their environmental policies. The results are robust since we utilize different aspects of countries' environmental degradation such as carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprints and countries' environmental performance levels. Finally, the analysis of the dynamic interrelations among countries' energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation levels, reveals the necessity to promote sustainable development through a coexistence rather than through a trade-off mechanism.     

Foreign direct investment in OECD countries: a special focus in the case of Greece

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is considered as an important instrument for economic development all over the world. The aim of this paper is to examine the FDI inflows determinants for 24 OECD countries. To this end we employ annual data from 1980 to 2012 for a series of potential FDI determinants that have been identified as the most important by the relevant literature. Our empirical strategy employs both the standard fixed effects panel as well as a dynamic panel approach. The empirical findings highlight the importance of market size, trade openness, unit labor cost, schooling, taxation, gross capital formation, institutional variables, and ROA/ROE as significant FDI determinants. In the case of the dynamic panel model those FDI inflows determinants are not uniform for all country groups. Additionally, the results indicate that corporate tax rates clearly affect FDI attractiveness. This finding is robust when testing different countries subgroups. The present study has important policy implications indicating the factors that host economies should place emphasis on in order to attract FDI inflows. Policy makers should not only pay attention to the corporate tax rate level but they should also design a simple, stable and transparent taxation system that minimizes the relevant business risk.     

Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries

This study applies a flexible Fourier stationary test, proposed by Becker et al. (2006) to investigate the mean reversion of inflation in 22 OECD countries over the period of 1961 to 2011. While traditional unit root tests give us mixed results, empirical results from our flexible Fourier stationary test indicate that mean reversion of inflation holds in all 22 OECD countries. Our results have important policy implications for the 22 OECD countries under study.     

Convergence in per capita health expenditures and health outcomes in the OECD countries

Our analysis of 19 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 1972 to 2006 provides evidence of convergence in per capita health care expenditures for 17 countries, while the US and (to a lesser degree) Norway follow a different path. A simple decomposition of per capita health expenditures reveals that the divergence of the US comes from the divergence of the ‘ratio of health care expenditures to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)’ component, while Norway's divergence is mainly caused by the ‘labour productivity’ component. Interestingly, our results suggest that convergence in per capita health expenditures among the 17 OECD countries does not lead to convergence in health outcomes. Finally, we extend our analysis to examine convergence in various determinants of health expenditures.     

Measuring the efficiency of health systems of OECD countries by data envelopment analysis

This study aims to assess the efficiency of health sectors of 34 OECD countries by employing input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) method both under constant and variable returns to scale assumptions. In the analysis, the number of doctors, number of patient beds and health expenditure per capita were used as input variables and life expectancy at birth and infant mortality rate were used as outputs. At the first stage, DEA analysis was performed for 34 countries, and at the second stage outlier 8 countries were eliminated to form a more homogeneous group and to achieve more accurate results. 11 of the 26 countries were found to have efficient health systems, and there is room for efficiency improvements in health sector in the remaining 15 countries.     

Culture,financial crisis and the demand for property,accident and health insurance in the OECD countries

Culture has been known to play an important role in explaining differences in consumption behaviour across countries. Yet, we know very little how it affects spending on non-life insurance products. This paper attempts to shed some light on how cultural characteristics impact the demand for property, accident and health insurance, focusing on the OECD countries in the period 2000–2017. We find, via the system generalized method of moment estimations, that cultural characteristics such as individualism, long-term orientation, masculinity and uncertainty avoidance were the drivers of the expenditure on property insurance, whereas long-term orientation, uncertainty avoidance and hypometropia explained accident and health insurance spending across the OECD countries. In the presence of the global financial crisis, cultural effects on property insurance spending turned out to be relatively minor, with the exception of individualism. These findings provide valuable information for non-life insurance companies, consumers and policy makers in the OECD countries.     

Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration

We propose a bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) test. By applying the appropriate bootstrap method, some weaknesses underlying the Pesaran, Shin and Smith ARDL bounds test are addressed including size and power properties and the elimination of inconclusive inferences. In addition, inferences based solely on the significance of the F-test and single t-test from the ARDL bounds test are not sufficient to avoid degenerate cases. The bootstrap ARDL test provides an additional test on the significance of coefficients on lagged levels of the regressors, which provides a better insight into the cointegration status of the model.     

Pressure to adjust: Consequences for the OECD countries from reforms in eastern Europe

The opening of the formerly planned economies to the world has not only profound consequences for these central and eastern European economies. There are also substantial effects on the economies of western Europe, resulting from enhanced price competition in product markets, migration and capital flows. The macroeconomic effects and adjustment requirements in the OECD countries are fundamentally determined by the two central, but not mutually exclusive growth options for the reform countries, which are analysed in the paper: the option of an import-led growth in eastern Europe, resulting from capital transfers from the West in order to asist the modernisation and investment process in the East, and the option of an export-led growth, allowing for unrestricted entering of western markets and imitating the experience of south-east Asian economies. The estimated magnitudes and likely economic effects speak in favour of the export-led growth option, but under both options the governments in the West are challenged.