Inflation targeting: Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule?

The paper discusses how current inflation targeting should be modeled, and argues that it is better represented as a commitment to a targeting rule (a rule specifying operational objectives for monetary policy or a condition for the target variables), than as a commitment to a simple instrument rule (like a Taylor rule).     

Does ownership concentration affect banks’ credit risk? Evidence from MENA emerging markets

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of ownership concentration on banks’ credit risk. The study employs a dynamic panel approach using data from 98 banks listed in the 10 Middle East and North African (MENA) emerging stock markets between 2003 and 2016. To better understand the nature of the relationship between ownership concentration and bank credit risk and how this relationship is shaped by the recent financial crisis, we conducted a pre- and postcrisis analysis. Our findings document a positive relationship between ownership concentration and nonperforming loans in the precrisis period, which surprisingly reverses during the postcrisis period. We argue that the reversal of this relationship is driven by changes in controlling shareholders’ risk aversion, behavior, and attitude prompted by the financial crisis. Given that central banks are entrusted with forestalling banks’ failure, incorporating ownership concentration, as a fundamental determinant of banks’ credit risk, is crucial to anticipate future financial calamities. Our findings highlight the gravity of agency problems in emerging MENA markets. Reinforcing firm-level as well as country-level governance mechanisms is crucial to restore a sound banking system, enhance markets’ integrity, and increase investors’ confidence.     

Why is there money? Endogenous derivation of `money' as the most liquid asset: a class of examples

Summary. The monetary character of trade, use of a common medium of exchange, is shown to be an outcome of an economic general equilibrium. Monetary structure can be derived from price theory in a modified Arrow-Debreu model. Two constructs are added: transaction costs and market segmentation in trading posts (with a separate budget constraint at each transaction). Commodity money arises endogenously as the most liquid (lowest transaction cost) asset. Government-issued fiat money has a positive equilibrium value from its acceptability for tax payments. Scale economies in transaction cost account for uniqueness of the (fiat or commodity) money in equilibrium. Received: February 15, 2002; revised version: August 12, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This paper has benefited from seminars and colleagues' helpful remarks at the University of California - Santa Barbara, University of California - San Diego, NSF-NBER Conference on General Equilibrium Theory at Purdue University, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics at San Diego State University, Econometric Society at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, SITE at Stanford University-2001, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Midwest Economic Theory Conference at the University of Illinois - Urbana Champaign, University of Iowa, Southern California Economic Theory Conference at UC - Santa Barbara, Midwest Macroeconomics Conference at University of Iowa, University of California - Berkeley, European Workshop on General Equilibrium Theory at University of Paris I, Society for Economic Dynamics at San Jose Costa Rica, World Congress of the Econometric Society at University of Washington, Cowles Foundation at Yale University. It is a pleasure to acknowledge comments of Henning Bohn, Harold Cole, James Hamilton, Mukul Majumdar, Harry Markowitz, Chris Phelan, Meenakshi Rajeev, Wendy Shaffer, Bruce Smith, and Max Stinchcombe.     

Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

ABSTRACT

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.     

Galbraith’s Planning System as a Substitute for Market Theory

Knowledge about the power and misbehavior of defense contractors is substantial; yet their power continues to grow in full view of a record of waste, fraud, corrupt activity, and the failure to perform contracts. The knowledge base about defense contractors has not been sufficient to effectively oppose their extensive power. Knowledge is needed about how the boards of directors of the defense corporations are interlocked. That work is initiated in this article by ranking the top defense contractors in terms of the number of power blocs to which the corporations belong in the defense contractors' power-bloc network.     

Should Welfare Administration be Centralized or Decentralized? Evidence from a Policy Experiment

The 2005 reform of the German welfare system introduced two competing organizational models for welfare administration. In most districts, a centralized organization was established where local welfare agencies are bound to central directives. At the same time, 69 districts were allowed to opt for a decentralized organization. We evaluate the relative success of both types in terms of integrating welfare recipients into employment. Compared to centralized organization, decentralized organization has a negative effect on employment chances of males. For women, no significant effect is found. These findings are robust to the inclusion of aspects of internal organization common to both types of agencies.     

Territory as a Psychosomatic Device: Gottmann’s Kinetic Political Geography

Without denying the importance of his contributions to regional, economic, historical and urban geography, a rediscovery of Jean Gottmann’s political geography and its current geopolitical relevance has been taking place in Europe since the 1990s. The relative absence of his name in most of the subfield historical accounts, in contrast to the international reputation of his book Megalopolis has inspired this article, which attempts a survey of Gottmann’s key contributions to political geography, with emphasis on those in French. A bio-bibliographical analysis, enhanced by original references to archival source, was necessary for reconstructing the genesis and development of his political geography. Specifically, Gottmann states that territory is a psychosomatic device because its political partitioning is produced by the psychological oscillation in pertinent communities between search for security and search for opportunities. In the conclusions, a few questions are raised about how his theories could be applied to improving our understanding of the contemporary geopolitical scenario.

The concept of territory, with its material and psychological components, is a psychosomatic expedient necessary to preserve freedom and the variety of separated communities in an interdependent and accessible space.

— Jean Gottmann, ‘The Evolution of the Concept of Territory’, Social Science Information 14/3–4 (1975) pp.29–47.

     

The IMF as just One Creditor: Who’s in Charge When a Country Can’t Pay?

ABSTRACT

The international community’s management of the 2010 financial crisis in Greece revealed a major gap in the international financial system. No single institution is any longer unambiguously in charge. Consequently, the path is open for narrow interests to predominate over global interests. An examination of postwar history shows that this problem has been growing gradually since the 1970s and has become much greater since the mid-1990s. To alleviate the problem, the International Monetary Fund needs to develop an effective strategy for reducing the opportunities for creditor countries to intervene in decisions on how crises should be resolved.     

South Africa’s monetary policy independence: evidence from a Global New-Keynesian DSGE model

We study the response of South African monetary policy decisions to foreign monetary policy shocks. We estimate the extent of foreign monetary policy pass through by augmenting standard Taylor rules and comparing the results within the context of a Global New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The general equilibrium model captures important spill-over effects that would otherwise have been ignored in a single equation set-up. The results show that the relationship between foreign monetary policy shocks and South African interest rates is complicated – South Africa does not import foreign monetary policy directly, but is still affected. Except for the US, an increase in foreign interest rates leads to a decrease in South African interest rates – highlighting the complex channels that the monetary policy authority has to monitor outside of its economy.     

Polanyi’s ‘substantive approach’ to the economy in action? Conceptualising social enterprise as a public health ‘intervention’

For several decades now, critical public health researchers have highlighted the deleterious effects that pursuing neoliberal policies can have on the ‘causes of the causes’ of poor health and upon growing health inequalities. This paper argues that the conceptual tools of Karl Polanyi can help lend particular insight into this issue. The specific example that this paper focuses upon is the ‘social enterprise’: a form of organisation that combines both social and business objectives. The paper explores, conceptually, whether social enterprises may have the potential to act as one component of a neo-Polanyian countermovement: helping to re-embed the economy back into society, and offering greater recognition for a more comprehensive and socially imbued concept of health. Importantly, this potential is critically examined in the context of neoliberal hegemony, where challenges to the status quo have regularly been met with assimilation, co-option and/or repression.     

Entrepreneur’s creativity and firm-level innovation performance: bricolage as a mediator

Prior literature focuses on the direct influence of entrepreneur’s creativity on firm-level innovation performance, but it ignores the intermediate mechanism of how. This study examines the role of bricolage in mediating the relationship between entrepreneur’s creativity and innovation performance. We propose that in SMEs, entrepreneur’s creativity can facilitate bricolage, which in turn influences innovation performance. Furthermore, the extent to which entrepreneur’s creativity can influence bricolage depends on firm age. Survey data from 249 SMEs indicate that bricolage functions as a mediator in the relationship between entrepreneur’s creativity and innovation performance. Entrepreneur’s creativity has a stronger effect on bricolage for young firms than for old firms.     

Sovereignty as a Resource: Performing Securitised Borders in Tajikistan’s Pamirs

This paper scrutinises the translation of sovereignty into daily actions at the border. The Soviet Union established a heavily securitised and sealed border, which was perpetuated in post-Soviet, civil war-stricken Tajikistan by assigning the task to the Russian Federation’s border forces. After having taken over the task of guarding the border, the slowly recovering post-conflict state tried hard to maintain its own border control. Drawing on interviews with borderland people, this article discusses the convergence of Tajikistan’s strong claim but weak support for sovereignty, with the daily life of the borderland people. It will show how – given the Pamirs’ special status as a border district – far-reaching sovereign authority of state agents, aiming to provide security at the border, has been translated into arbitrary actions ensuring individual benefits and has been hidden by intransparency. The article argues that the lack of adequate support from the central government encourages state representatives at the border to reinterpret the sovereign power assigned to them in order to serve their own individual benefits and purposes. Instead of being used to maintain the state territory, the sovereignty’s power is diverted to serve individual interests, in the end serving to destabilize the border, the opposite of the intended purpose.     

Competition is (still) a tough weed: A review essay of Thomas Philippon’s The great reversal: How America gave up on free markets

The Review of Austrian Economics - In The Great Reversal, Philippon makes the case that competition in America has weakened during the past two decades. His book contributes to the rapidly...     

Can Chinese aid win the hearts and minds of Africa’s local population?

The vast increase in China’s aid projects has raised mounting concerns about the effectiveness of Chinese aid. To assess Chinese development assistance in Africa from the perspective of local residents’ attitude toward Chinese projects, we geographically match Chinese aid projects in Africa from 2000 to 2012 to the respondents of the Afrobarometer survey. By comparing the attitudes toward China reported by individuals who live close to ongoing Chinese projects at the time of the interview to those of individuals who live near sites where Chinese projects will be implemented in the future, this study establishes that the presence of Chinese projects induces a positive view of Chinese aid within the local population. Our mechanism analysis shows that people from all statuses can benefit from economic infrastructure projects, while the advantaged tend to have a better view of Chinese aid. In contrast, social infrastructure aid inspires a more positive view among disadvantaged people. We thus demonstrate that aid can have a differential impact on local attitudes, depending on aid types and statuses of recipients.     

(When) Should cointegrating regressions be detrended? The case of a German money demand function

If an economic relationship is superimposed by a linear time trend, the regression without detrending is misspecified. The estimators of such a regression do not converge to the true parameter values. First, the asymptotic limit arising from such misspecified regressions is characterized. Second, we observe with data before 1975 a significant time trend but no cointegrating relation between real money (M1), income and a long-term interest rate. The price level as a significant omitted variable is considered as an economic explanation for this feature. We find a price elasiticity larger than one. Third, with data after the breakdown of Bretton Woods (and the beginning of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank), real money, income and the interest rate alone are cointegrated. The long-run estimates seem to be fairly stable with data after the German union provided a step dummy accounts for a break in the mean. First version received: November 1996/final version received: June 1998     

When is the risk of cooperation worth taking? The prisoner’s dilemma as a game of multiple motives

This experimental article helps to understand the motives behind cooperation in the prisoner’s dilemma. It manipulates the pay-off in case both players defect in a two-player, one-shot prisoner’s dilemma and explains the degree of cooperation by a combination of four motives: efficiency, conditional cooperation, fear and greed. All motives are significant but some become only significant if one controls for all remaining ones. This seems to be the reason why earlier attempts at explaining choices in the prisoner’s dilemma with personality have not been successful.