Are you hiring Johnny Football or Johnny Doe? Uncertain labour quality and the measurement of monopsony in college football

I assess monopsony in the college football labour market as it relates to both typical and elite performers, while also accounting for the uncertain performance quality of prospective players who are in this labour market. Existing studies suggest that the marginal revenue product (MRP) of elite collegiate players later drafted into the National Football League (NFL), significantly exceeds their compensation. These comparisons overstate monopsony rents because schools don’t know ex ante which prospects will become these elite performers. Using financial data spanning 2004–2011 from 114 major schools, I estimate the MRP of players sorted into three ex post quality tiers, and find that while eventual NFL draftees generate revenue that significantly exceeds their compensation, a majority of scholarship players do not. Then, using Rivals.com talent ratings of 6,604 prospective players recruited from 2002–2008, I estimate the probability that prospects will reach each ex post quality tier given their ex ante ratings. MRP estimates are adjusted by these conditional probability estimates to reflect the expected MRP of prospects, which allows more appropriate assessment of monopsony rents. I find that schools possess substantially less monopsony power than unadjusted MRP estimates suggest.     

Returns to education in professional football

After three years in college, football players face a trade-off between spending more time in college and pursuing a career in the National Football League (NFL). We analyze the salaries for rookies in the NFL and instrument the endogenous decision to enter the professional market with the month of birth (relative age effect). A player enjoys a 6 percent higher starting salary in the NFL for each additional year with the college team. The returns to education in professional sports are sizable and similar to returns to formal education.     

Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations

Abstract

Background: Human-capital based lifetime productivity estimates are frequently used in cost-of-illness (COI) analyses and, less commonly, in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Previous US estimates assumed that labor productivity and real earnings both grow by 1% per year.

Objectives: This study presents estimates of annual and lifetime productivity for 2016 using data from the American Community Survey, the American Time Use Survey, and the Current Population Survey, and with varying assumptions about real earnings growth.

Methods: The sum of market productivity (gross annual personal labor earnings adjusted for employer-paid benefits) and the imputed value of non-market time spent in household, caring, and volunteer services was estimated. The present value of lifetime productivity at various ages was calculated for synthetic cohorts using annual productivity estimates, life tables, discount rates, and assumptions about future earnings growth rates.

Results: Mean annual productivity was $57,324 for US adults in 2016, including $36,935 in market and $20,389 in non-market productivity. Lifetime productivity at birth, using a 3% discount rate, is roughly $1.5 million if earnings grow by 1% per year and $1.2 million if future earnings growth averages 0.5% per year.

Conclusions: Inclusion of avoidable productivity losses in societal-perspective CEAs of health interventions is recommended in new US cost-effectiveness guidelines. However, estimates vary depending on whether analysts choose to estimate total productivity or just market productivity, and on assumptions made about growth in future productivity and earnings.     

Pay for play: the financial value of NCAA football players

We explore the financial value of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) football recruits and establish a wage schedule based on the star ratings assigned to high school athletes by an independent talent evaluation agency. Evidence suggests that the contribution of higher-ranking recruits to team wins significantly increases revenues. While the NCAA currently prohibits universities from paying student-athletes, we estimate that if amateurism rules were rescinded and college football players were compensated according to their revenue-generating abilities then five-, four-, three-, and low-star players would be entitled to annual salaries of $799,000, $361,000, $29,000, and $21,000, respectively, in addition to athletic scholarships covering tuition, books, and room and board.     

WAREHOUSES,TRUCKS, AND PM2.5: HUMAN HEALTH AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRY GROWTH IN THE EASTERN INLAND EMPIRE

The eastern Inland Empire of Southern California has experienced dramatic growth of the logistics industry since 2000. This paper analyzes the air pollution implications of that expansion. It is found that truck traffic will generate significant air pollution, especially PM_2.5. The estimated excess mortality associated is 32–64 cases per year, with a combined excess mortality and morbidity value of $247–$455 million per year. This represents 44%–81% of the estimated wages generated by industry growth and $5 million–$9 million per distribution facility. These estimates suggest that policies should be developed to internalize those costs.     

Dominant carrier market power in US international telephone markets

An econometric model is used to examine market power in US international telephone markets. Lerner index estimates suggest AT&T's collection rate-cost margin was between 12% and 24% during 1991 to 1995. Although Lerner estimates imply deadweight welfare losses of up to US $261 million per annum, such losses are small compared to those from the inefficient pricing of international interconnection. Settlement rate-cost margins on US bilateral markets of approximately 89% translate into a US $4907 million transfer from consumers to carriers in 1995.     

Comparing Travel Cost Models And The Precision Of Their Consumer Surplus Estimates: Albert Park And Maroondah Reservoir

This study examines different types of Travel Cost Models to estimate and compare the recreational values of two parks in Victoria, Australia: Maroondah Reservoir and Albert Park. Zonal Travel Cost models and a number of different functional forms are used in this study. Standard errors are used to estimate upper and lower bounds for the recreational value estimates, enabling comparison between the precision of the different types of Travel Cost Models and functional forms estimated. The double log functional form city zone Travel Cost Model was chosen as the best estimate for Albert Park's recrea-tional value at $22.9 million per year. Maroondah Reservoir's best estimate is provided by the double log functional form regional zone Travel Cost Model at a value of $2.5 million per year, consider-ably less than that of Albert Park. Albert Park is found to have a comparatively larger 'proximity power' (attracting many more visitors) while Maroondah Reservoir exhibited a larger degree of 'pulling power' (a higher proportion of its visitors travel further distances).     

SUBSIDY TO NUCLEAR POWER THROUGH PRICE-ANDERSON LIABILITY LIMIT

Between 1959 and 1982, the Price-Anderson Act placed a limit of $560 million on the liability of nuclear power plant operators for accidental damages. This limit grew to $7 billion due to the 1988 amendments to the act. This paper using insurance premiums charged for the first $160 million of coverage and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's estimate of the probability of a worst-case loss, models the distribution of damages with a log-logistic density function. The study finds that the value of the Price-Anderson subsidy was $60 million per reactor year before 1982 but then dropped to $22 million per reactor year following the 1988 amendments.     

Competition and the price of municipal cable television services: An empirical study

This paper investigates the effect of competition in the provision of cable television services on social welfare. We develop a simple theoretical model that suggests that competition will be welfare enhancing so long as it results in lower market prices. We empirically test for the presence of this condition by estimating a five equation system: First, the local franchising authority is viewed as self-selecting into a competitive or non-competitive environment in order to maximize its rents. Given this selection, the remaining four equations specify basic service and pay service penetration rate and price equations. Following Mayo and Otsuka (1991), the resulting system is estimated by two-stage least squares. We find that competition among suppliers lowers average basic cable rates by about $3.85 and the typical pay service rate by about $1.10, certis paribus. Mutatis mutandis estimates of these effects imply that monopoly franchising of cable service results in roughly $3.6 billion per year national welfare loss.     

Chicago's water market: dynamics of demand,prices and scarcity rents

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.     

Does college football impact the size of university applicant pools and the quality of entering students?

The role played by collegiate athletics in furthering the mission of institutions of higher education has been one of the more active research streams in the economics literature. Two areas of emphasis in this particular genre concern the relationship between athletics success and the size of a university’s applicant pool, and the relationship between athletics success and the quality of a university’s incoming class. This study extends both lines of research above by employing a unique panel data set consisting of 10 institutions that either added or eliminated college football between 1997 and 2015 in order to examine the impact of the presence of college football programme on both the size of university applicant pools and the quality of the students chosen for admission. Results from a panel data estimator presented here suggest that the size of their applicant pool shrinks the year following discontinuation of a college football programme. In the case of ACT scores, the results are similar, indicating that the ACT scores of incoming freshmen decrease after discontinuation of football.     

Annual patient and caregiver burden of oncology clinic visits for granulocyte-colony stimulating factor therapy in the US

Objective:

Prophylactic treatment with granulocyte-colony stimulating factors (G-CSFs) is indicated for chemotherapy patients with a significant risk of febrile neutropenia. This study estimates the annual economic burden on patients and caregivers of clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US.

Methods:

Annual clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections (all cancers) were estimated from national cancer incidence, chemotherapy treatment and G-CSF utilization data, and G-CSF sales and pricing information. Patient travel times, plus time spent in the clinic, were estimated from patient survey responses collected during a large prospective cohort study (the Prospective Study of the Relationship between Chemotherapy Dose Intensity and Mortality in Early-Stage (I–III) Breast Cancer Patients). Economic models were created to estimate travel costs, patient co-pays and the economic value of time spent by patients and caregivers in G-CSF clinic visits.

Results:

Estimated total clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US were 1.713 million for 2015. Mean (SD) travel time per visit was 62 (50) min; mean (SD) time in the clinic was 41 (68) min. Total annual time for travel to and from the clinic, plus time at the clinic, is estimated at 4.9 million hours, with patient and caregiver time valued at $91.8 million ($228 per patient). The estimated cumulative annual travel distance for G-CSF visits is 60.2 million miles, with a total transportation cost of $28.9 million ($72 per patient). Estimated patient co-pays were $61.1 million, ～$36 per visit, $152 per patient. The total yearly economic impact on patients and caregivers is $182 million, ～$450 per patient.

Limitations:

Data to support model parameters were limited. Study estimates are sensitive to the assumptions used.

Conclusions:

The burden of clinic visits for G-CSF therapy is a significant addition to the total economic burden borne by cancer patients and their families.     

VALUING REDUCED RISKS TO CHILDREN: THE CASE OF BICYCLE SAFETY HELMETS

The protection of children's health has recently become a mandated priority for federal policy makers. To assess many of the regulations that affect children's health, policy makers need estimates of the monetary value of reducing mortality risks to children. Although the economics literature has provided many estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) for adult populations, it has provided none for school age children. This article studies the market for bicycle safety helmets and estimates for the first time a separate but comparable VSL for children and adults. We derive three estimates of VSL for each of three age categories (5 to 9, 10 to 14, and 20 to 59) that range from $1.1 to $4.0 million. In all cases, estimates for adults are highest, followed by estimates for the youngest children.     

Valuation and management of wetland ecosystems

We recently completed a study of wetland values in coastal Louisiana that employed both willingness-to-pay and energy analysis-based methodologies and were able to bracket a range of values within which we feel fairly confident the true value lies. However, a large amount of uncertainty remains. Our current estimates of the total prsent value of an average acre of natural wetlands in Louisiana are US$2429–6400 per acre (assuming an 8% discount rate) to $8977–17000 per acre (assuming a 3% discount rate). At the lowest value, the current annual rate of loss of Louisiana wetlands (50 sq miles per year) is worth about $77 million. At the largest value it is worth about $544 million.In this paper we (a) discuss the fundamental theoretical and practical problems underlying natural resources valuation; (b) summarize our methods and findings for Louisiana wetlands; and (c) elaborate on some of the more recalcitrant problems attending applied natural resource valuation, including discounting and dealing with uncertainty and imprecision.The discount rate makes more difference in the final result than any other one factor, and yet there is much disagreement about the appropriate approach to discounting natural resources. We discuss the discounting problem as applied to natural resources and argue for lower discount rates for valuing renewable natural resources than apply for other aspects of the economy.It now seems clear that no reasonable amount of effort will produce very precise estimates of wetland values, and we suspect this is also the case for several other classes of natural resources. We elaborate a Wetlands Asurance Bonding System to address these problems.     

Market Size and Investment Performance of Defaulted Bonds and Bank Loans: 1987–2001

The defaulted and distressed, public and private debt markets in the United States swelled to a record $680 billion (face value) at the end of 2001. The market value of this 'niche' segment was approximately $400 billion.
Defaulted security investors enjoyed an excellent year on average, as returns in 2001 were 17.5 per cent on bonds, 13.9 per cent on bank loans, and 15.6 per cent combined defaulted public bonds and private bank loans.
The Altman–New York University Salomon Center Index of Defaulted Bonds grew to over 200 individual issues and a face value of $56.2 billion; the market value was only $11.8 billion. The market–to–face value ratio of the Bond Index grew somewhat to 0.21 from 0.15 one year ago, but remained at a relatively low figure. The face value of our Defaulted Bank Loan Index also grew to $44.7 billion and the market–to–face value ratio remained quite low at 0.53.
The recovery rate on defaulted bonds (price just after default) was very low at 25 cents on the dollar; likewise, the bank loan recovery rate in 2001 was also relatively low at 55 cents on the dollar. With new defaulted bonds rising in 2001 to a record $63.6 billion (default rate of 9.80 per cent) and the default outlook for 2002 high investment opportunities should abound in the distressed debt market.
Indications are that distressed investors (both old and new) are successfully raising funds because investor expectations are buoyant.
(J.E.L.: G21, G33).     

IT INVESTMENT AND INTANGIBLES: EVIDENCE FROM BANKS

This paper models the investment behavior of a multi‐asset firm with market power that accumulates valuable intangible assets to complement the IT capital. The investment model is estimated using data from Spanish banks on assets of different nature: material (branches, financial), immaterial (advertising and IT), and intangible (training of workers). The paper estimates that the representative bank spends five additional Euros per Euro invested in IT‐related assets in complementary intangible assets or, equivalently, intangibles amount to approximately 10 percent of the economic value of the representative bank. The remaining economic value is distributed between 28 percent from rents attributed to market power, and 62 percent to the cost of market‐purchased assets.     

Who gets promoted? Personality factors leading to promotion in highly structured work environments: evidence from a German professional football club

Much of the research on how human capabilities contribute to labour market success focuses on traditional human capital predictors. However, researchers are becoming increasingly aware of the important role of personality traits in determining individual labour market outcomes, both positive and negative. Using data from young professional football players in Germany, this study investigates the relationship between individual personality traits and cognitive abilities on career success. Our results suggest that individuals who score low on the tendency to be principled but high on cognitive processing speed are significantly more likely to enjoy career success through job promotion.     

SNAKE RIVER SALMON RECOVERY: QUANTIFYING THE COSTS

Economic costs are relevant to endangered species protection in both theory and practice. Recovering endangered Snake River salmon will require modifying public land use, restricting fishing and hatchery production, reducing water for agriculture, and altering the operation of hydroelectric dams. The economic costs are estimated to range from $246 million to $359 million per year. While the estimated cost is not matched by the estimated increased value of fishing, the nonuse value of salmon recovery may be very large. Better economic and biological information is needed to assure that decisions for salmon species protection are reasonably cost effective. ( JEL Q28, H43)     

Football players’ career and wage profiles

The objective of this article is to look over football players’ career path, from lower leagues to the first league, and the associated wage profile. The information comes from a Portuguese longitudinal matched employer–employee data set defining several career events according to players’ movement across football clubs and across professional and semi-professional leagues. Our identifying strategy relies on coach changes to reduce the potential bias resulting from players’ moves between clubs. The estimated first-difference wage equations indicate that players can expect a wage premium when they get transferred to new clubs in higher leagues or a wage penalty when moving to lower leagues. Players who stay in the same club after the club being relegated can also expect a wage penalty.     

COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD WORK IN THE UNITED STATES FOR 1976*

This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings? The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.