国土空间规划管制、地方政府竞争与区域经济发展——来自湖北省县（市、区）域的经验研究

研究目的:实证检验国土空间规划管制对区域经济发展的影响及其作用机制。研究方法:在对国土空间规划管制影响区域经济发展机理分析的基础上,提出本文的研究假说,并基于湖北省82个县(市、区)域单元2002—2015年的统计数据,运用中介效应模型加以检验。研究结果:国土空间被管制强度越高的区域,其地方政府可以运作的土地要素就越少,则该地区地方政府在发展区域经济竞赛中的竞争力就越弱,进而其经济发展水平就相应较低,与国土空间被管制强度较弱区域的经济发展差距逐渐拉大。研究结论:在中国把国土空间规划上升为国家战略的时代背景下,为协调区域经济的均衡发展,应建立起管制弱化区域和管制强化区域之间的横向财政转移支付机制和土地发展权交易市场,使不同区域均能享受到国土空间优化带来的福利提升。     

土地财政、预算软约束与地方政府债务规模

研究目的:从土地财政在政府举债中的重要地位出发,研究土地财政与预算软约束对政府债务规模的影响机制;实证分析预算软约束在土地财政和地方政府债务规模之间的中介效应;对控制地方政府债务规模、促进政府对土地资源的科学管理提出政策建议。研究方法:对2008—2011年和2013—2015年的28个省级面板数据进行回归分析;中介效应模型检验。研究结果:土地财政与预算软约束均与地方政府债务规模显著正相关;预算软约束在土地财政与地方政府债务规模间存在显著的中介效应。研究结论:解决地方政府的债务风险问题和土地管理问题,必须严控土地资源的抵押转化,限制预算软约束;同时适当引入竞争性的土地交易机制,促进土地财政、土地金融的改革。     

中国城市工业用地利用效率时空差异及地方政府竞争影响

研究目的:研究中国主要城市工业用地利用效率年度变化以及不同层面的地方政府竞争对其影响。研究方法:GIS方法与动态面板计量方法。研究结果:(1)中国各大中城市工业用地利用效率普遍不高,呈现出一定的空间差异性和不完全规律性分布,但城市之间效率差异在逐年缩小。(2)地方政府竞争的4个方面对促进工业用地利用效率有不同程度的影响。在东部和中西部地区之间,省会城市和其他城市之间地方政府竞争的影响存在一定的差异。(3)从投资来源看,内资企业的土地利用效率更容易受到政府的直接推动,港澳台资企业习惯于享受地方政府的土地价格优惠,外资企业则更倾向于在市场化程度更高的城市布局。研究结论:政府应在提高城市工业用地利用效率中发挥重要作用。     

发展竞争、土地供应策略互动与城市用地增长——基于252个城市数据的空间面板模型实证检验

研究目的：针对发展竞争驱动下产生的地方政府土地供应策略,从空间维度上展开进一步分析,解析城市土地供应行为中存在着怎样的空间互动关系。研究方法：运用2007—2017年的城市层面面板数据和空间计量模型进行了实证检验。研究结果：（1）服务于发展竞争的土地供应策略,对本城市和周边城市的用地增长都会产生影响;（2）工业用地价格波动与商住用地价格波动都会产生空间溢出效应,且前者产生的空间溢出效应更强;（3）工业用地价格存在“竞次式”的城市间互动,其价格增长会显著抑制本城市的用地扩张,但会促进周边城市的用地增长;（4）商住用地价格提升会促进本城市用地扩张,并抑制周边城市用地扩张;（5）作为因变量的城市用地规模,在同省/异省的城市间分别存在着“彼此促进”和“此消彼长”两种互动关系。研究结论：区域协调、用地增长两个方面要紧密结合,针对工业用地价格“竞次式”竞争和商住用地价格高价出让,从城市间关系协调入手进行调控政策的设计与创新。     

林地征占用中地方政府行为偏失与规范分析

在阐明了地方政府在林地征占用中存在盲目征地与低价征用、创租与寻租、规避与违反国家法律等行为偏失的基础上,深入剖析了地方政府行为偏失的原因——林地产权不明晰、现行的财政分权体制和政绩考核机制、公共利益的界定模糊等,提出了通过明晰林地产权、健全政绩考核制度、确定公共利益的界定规则等矫正这类政府失灵现象的建议。     

我国地方政府创新研究:现状、热点与展望

随着中国地方政府创新奖的设立,地方政府创新逐渐成为政治学、公共管理学的热门研究内容,研究成果丰硕。基于文献计量分析,文章对近二十年来中国地方政府创新的研究成果进行分析、归纳,试图准确把握当前我国地方政府创新研究的热点及其未来趋势。在对我国地方政府创新研究现状进行分析的基础上,对地方政府创新动因、扩散及可持续性等热点主题予以总结,进而发现当前我国地方政府创新研究存在研究深度不够、理论体系缺乏等薄弱之处,并对地方政府创新研究的未来进行了展望。     

Influence of the EU CAP on terrain morphology and vineyard cultivation in the Priorat region of NE Spain

After the GATT agreements in 1986, which removed the existing external protection on wine market, and with demand developing towards a qualitative level, the European wine sector has been subjected to a continuous transformation to accomplish that main objective. To give producers the chance to bring production into line with market developments and to allow the sector to become permanently competitive, the European Commission established the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1493/1999) on the common market organization in wine, later adopted in the 2003 CAP reform. Among other measures, this regulation finances the restructuring of a large part of present vineyards by adopting new farming systems (EC Council Regulation No. 1227/2000), supporting actions as soil preparation, which includes land levelling and terracing. Traditional vineyard areas in Mediterranean mountain environments, with subsistence agriculture and farming systems based on man and animal labour, have taken advantage of the new market opportunities in the wine sector and of this policy as well, and have changed to a market-oriented farming strategy. It has involved the construction of terraces on hillslopes using heavy machinery with the objective of crop mechanization, which has supposed important changes in soils and landscape. An example of this situation is the Priorat region (Catalonia, NE Spain), where vineyards have been cultivated on hillslopes by human and animal labour since the 12th century. Since the early 1990s the region has been undergoing major changes arising from new wine market opportunities and later by vineyard conversion and restructuring EU policy, which subsidizes up to 50% of the cost. In this paper we consider two aspects of the changes that modern farming systems are causing in the region: (a) land use changes after the coming into practice of the EU vineyard restructuring policy and (b) terrain morphology changes due to land terracing and related geomorphological effects. The results show high terracing rates (22.6–36.1 ha year⁻¹) in the study period (1998–2006), accompanied by huge land movements (a cutting rate of about 5475 m³ ha⁻¹). Bad design of terraces has led to the collapse of benches and borders, affecting about 3.5% of the newly planted area. These effects question the suitability of the EU CAP for vineyard restructuring in Mediterranean mountain environments, revealing that although farmers comply with environmental protection requirements, CAP support is not accomplishing the objectives for which was conceived: the protection of the environment by the reduction of impacts of the agricultural activities.     

地方政府官员行为动机因素研究——基于Grey-AHP-DEMATEL算法的分析

经济学的个体主义为解释地方政府的整体行为提供了适切视角。文章在专家灰数评价和专家AHP确权的基础上,运用DEMATEL分析法,以作为地方政府代理人的政府官员为对象,对其个体特征、行为活动和所处制度环境进行解剖,进而厘清地方政府官员的行为动机。研究成果:从内部心理倾向、外部激励和外部约束三个维度构建了我国地方政府官员行为动机因素评价指标体系;对Grey-AHP-DEMATEL算法识别出的关键因素、原因因素和结果因素进行分析,认为要想更大程度发挥地方政府效能,必须遵循对地方政府官员"强动力—强激励—强保障—强约束"的基本路径。     

征地冲突中地方政府、中央政府和农户行为的动态博弈分析

研究目的:构建征地冲突中中央政府、地方政府、农户三者之间的动态博弈模型,根据均衡概率找出引起征地冲突的关键因素,以期为政府制定和完善征地相关政策提供理论依据。研究方法:综合分析法、博弈分析法。研究结果:(1)地方政府采取违法征地的概率与中央政府的监督检查成本、农户的维权成本呈正向关系,与对地方政府的经济处罚和农户维权后征地补偿标准的提高呈反向关系;(2)中央政府采取监督检查的概率与地方政府违法征地的收益呈正向关系,与对地方政府的经济处罚和政绩的损害呈反向关系;(3)农户维权的概率与地方政府违法征地时的收益呈正向关系,并与农户维权成本、地方政府征地补偿标准的提高和对其政绩的损害呈反向关系。研究结论:降低中央稽查和农户维权成本以及地方政府的违规收益,同时提高征地补偿标准,加大对违法征地的惩罚力度,使利益主体博弈行为趋于合理,可以避免或减少征地冲突的发生。     

协调发展战略下地方政府合作的动力机制探析--以深汕特别合作区为例

党的十九大报告首次提出区域协调发展战略,要求各地充分发挥比较优势,加强政府间合作,着力解决区域发展不平衡不充分的问题。深汕合作区正是实施这一战略的典型代表。其中,政府的战略政策导向、经济全球化、区域一体化和非政府组织的发展是合作区得以形成的主要外部动力;区域协调发展、产业结构调整、官员升迁诉求是内部动力。但是,在合作区发展的过程中也存在一定的阻力。如地方保护主义的抬头、利益博弈、市场运作的行政化。因此,为促进地方政府间良性合作,应不断强化合作的正向激励,降低合作的阻力,保证区域府际合作的长久性。     

Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU

Abstract

This study analyses the factors that determine Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the European Union (EU) using a gravity model. Panel data from 1995 to 2001 for 13 EU member countries are utilized. The explanatory variables are GDP, population, distance, Turkish population living in EU member countries, and being non-Mediterranean. Results indicate that the size of the economy, EU population, Turkish population in the EU, and addressing the tastes and preferences of non-Mediterranean countries are significant factors that affect Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. The results suggest that marketing strategies targeting the population of Turkish people in EU countries and non-Mediterranean member countries enhance the export performance of fruit and vegetable exports.     

基于空间自相关的黎平县农村居民点分布与影响因素关系研究

为科学精细分析云贵高原地区自然和社会经济因素对农村居民点空间分布的影响,本文以贵州省黎平县为研究对象,以行政村为研究单元,采用空间自相关与空间叠加相结合的方法,通过农村居民点分离度分析农村居民点分布与影响因素的关系.分析结果显示,(1)黎平县农村居民点分离度指标的全局Moran指数为0.089,Z值为2.164,大于1...     

土地供应结构对经济增长影响的空间效应研究 ——以长江中游城市群为例

研究目的:研究土地供应结构对经济增长影响的空间效应,为基于国家区域协同发展战略下的土地供应政策改革提供思路。研究方法:在对长江中游城市群城市经济空间相关性分析的基础上,构建土地供应结构对经济增长影响的空间计量模型,定量测度土地供应结构对本区域经济增长的直接效应以及在城市之间表现出的空间外溢效应。研究结果:(1)长江中游城市群区域经济发展在空间上相关性不强,三省内部,仅湖北省地级市表现出较显著的空间相关性;(2)土地供应结构对经济增长有一定的空间外溢性且在用地类型上存在差异;(3)增量建设用地供应量对长江中游城市群经济提高的直接效应最显著,工矿仓储用地、公共管理与公共服务用地供应量的间接效应显著。研究结论:要进一步推进长江中游城市群合作升级,优化土地供应结构,推动区域经济结构转型升级。     

Cross-level information and influence in mandated participatory planning: Alternative pathways to sustainable water management in Germany's implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive

State and non-state actors increasingly work across scales to address complex environmental problems. Prior studies of stakeholder participation have not fully examined how collaborative processes play out in multi-level policymaking. At the same time, multi-level governance studies do not adequately investigate the impacts of stakeholder participation. This study examines the cross-level interactions of influence and information in the participatory implementation of the European Union's Water Framework Directive. This directive is an example of mandated participatory planning, a relatively new approach that engages grassroots collaboration through a top-down structure with nested policy cycles. A case analysis of three collaborative planning units in the Land of Lower Saxony, within the federal governance structure of Germany, finds limited influence and information transmission across levels via formal planning and implementation processes. However, the collaborative efforts did yield alternative pathways for achieving substantive progress toward the directive's aims via learning, coordination, and buy-in among participants.     

Global investments in agricultural land and the role of the EU: Drivers,scope and potential impacts

This paper investigates the recent wave of investments in agricultural land, often referred to as land grabbing; a term that not only emphasises the appropriation of resources by investors but also implies a criticism of their potential impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems in the target countries. This phenomenon has increasingly been the focus of public attention as well as a source of concern for NGOs, international institutions, academia and civil society. More specifically, this study investigates the role that the European Union member states play, both collectively and individually, in this wave of acquisitions in agricultural land, by providing a comprehensive overview of the drivers, scope and potential impacts of these land deals.     

Combining management plans and payment schemes for targeted grassland conservation within the Habitats Directive in Saxony,Eastern Germany

As central policies for biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes in the European Union (EU), the Habitats Directive and Agri-environmental programmes (AEP) have largely failed to halt biodiversity loss. In response, the German federal state of Saxony combined the instrument of management plans with AEPs to support the implementation of the Habitat Directive. In this study, we investigate the determinants of a farmers’ decisions to adjust their farming practices. Our data set consists of a quantitative survey with 131 farmers conducted between 2004 and 2011, complemented by implementation data from 333 grassland-plots. Determinants of farmers’ decisions to conserve grassland were estimated using a multinomial logit model. Our results show that a combination of management plans and AEPs can increase farmers’ disposition to adopt nature conservation measures. As central determinants, structural and location factors as well as the complementary provisiion of specifically designed AEPs increase farmers’ willingness to adopt conservation practices for grassland management. It can be concluded that additional costs are a major barrier to farmers’ adoption, particularly to those farms directing their farm management towards the optimisation of productivity and profitability . The findings highlight the complementary potential of integrated policy packages to incentivise specific measures of nature conservation within the framework of the Habitats Directive.     

Modelling CAP Decoupling in the EU: A Comparison of Selected Simulation Models and Results

This article reviews ways of representing the effects of decoupling in the European Union (EU) on land allocation and production in eight selected simulation models (AGLINK, AG‐MEMOD, CAPRI, CAPSIM, ESIM, FAPRI, GOAL and GTAP). It then compares the simulated effects of decoupling and traces them back to the model specifications and parameter assumptions. In particular, roughage is not included in most models, so that changes in ruminant production are not necessarily consistent with the changes in fodder area. Models also differ in the extent to which they reflect the substitution possibilities in ruminant feeds. Notwithstanding the considerable differences in model types and specifications, all the studies considered here predict that as a result of decoupling, areas allocated to cereals (and silage maize) and beef and sheep production in the EU‐15 will decline, while fodder area will increase. Differences in the projections about pasture, oilseed and set‐aside areas can be attributed to different model or scenario specifications. The most important factor affecting the results is the extent to which the models assume that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2003 Reform (regarding Single Farm Payments) involves a substantial decoupling of support compared with the baseline (Agenda 2000) policy.     

地方政府土地政策试点实施的动力与机制 ——基于B市集体土地建租赁住房试点的案例分析

研究目的：分析中央主导的“设计试验”中地方政府土地政策试点实施的关键动力与治理机制,为完善土地政策试点运作机制提供参考。研究方法：理论分析、案例分析和过程追踪法。研究结果：（1）在中央加强顶层设计的试点模式下,地方自主探索的创新空间边界受到试点启动和实施等阶段央地多重互动的影响;（2）地方党政“一把手”的个人专长和信息优势有助于其清晰认识创新边界与作用,使其高度重视自身熟悉且利于实现政绩生产的试点领域,为地方推进试点提供关键动力;（3）在党政领导高位推动下,资源拓展、组织协调、政策调适与过程控制等机制构成地方政府解决试点实施困境、实现政策创新的关键机制。研究结论：为推动顶层设计与基层探索良性互动,土地政策试点需处理好央—地、政府—民众两对关系,健全对地方的激励约束机制,提高地方领导对试点的正向激励感知,并从资源、组织、政策和权力运作等维度完善高位推动下四位一体的治理机制。     

Non‐Reciprocal Trade Preferences and the Role of Compliance Costs in the Agricultural Sector: Exports to the EU

We investigate whether non‐reciprocal preferential regimes granted by the European Union have an impact on agricultural export flows from beneficiary countries while accounting for the costs of compliance that may prevent exporters from taking full advantage of potential benefits. Compliance costs are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. We proxy their influence and specify a model that allows for a different preferential margin impact according to the proxy costs. Adopting the gravity framework and using a sample of 554 lines of agricultural products for 131 developing countries in 2002, we find that the costs of compliance play a role in making the schemes work: the lower the costs, the greater the impact of the preferential margins. Moreover, the estimated margin effect differs between different regimes.