Country‐Specific Determinants of Horizontal and Vertical Intra‐industry Agri‐food Trade: The Case of the EU New Member States

Intra‐industry trade (IIT) has become a widespread phenomenon with a growing role in international trade, though agricultural trade is usually neglected in empirical works. This article identifies the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra‐industry agri‐food trade between New Member States (NMS) and the EU‐27 in 1999–2010, by applying static and dynamic models with different specifications to panel data. Results show that IIT is mainly of a vertical nature in the NMS, though the majority of NMS export low quality agri‐food products to EU‐27 markets. Factor endowments are negatively related to agri‐food horizontal intra‐industry trade (HIIT), but positively to vertical intra‐industry trade (VIIT). Economic size is positively and significantly related to both types of IIT, while distance and IIT are found to be negatively related in both cases. Results also suggest that HIIT and VIIT are greater if a New Member State exports agri‐food products to another NMS while EU accession has had positive and significant impacts on both HIIT and VIIT, suggesting that economic integration fosters IIT.     

The Effects of Non‐tariff Measures on Agri‐food Trade: A Review and Meta‐analysis of Empirical Evidence

The increasing policy interest and academic debates on non‐tariff measures (NTMs) has stimulated a growing literature on how NTMs affect agri‐food trade. The empirical literature provides contrasting and heterogeneous evidence, with some studies supporting the ‘standards as catalysts’ view, and others favouring the ‘standards as barriers’ explanation. To the extent that NTMs can influence trade, understanding the prevailing effect, and the motivations behind one effect or the other, is a pressing issue. We review a large body of empirical evidence on the effect of NTMs on agri‐food trade and conduct a meta‐analysis to disentangle potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates. Our findings show the role played by the publication process and by study‐specific assumptions. Some characteristics of the studies are correlated with positive significant estimates, others covary with negative significant estimates. Overall, we found that the effects of NTMs vary across types of NTM, proxies used for NTMs, and levels of detail of studies. The estimated effects are also influenced by methodological issues and publication processes.     

The Utilisation of Trade Preferences for Developing Countries in the Agri‐food Sector

Both the European Union and the United States grant non‐reciprocal preferences to developing countries under the Generalised System of Preferences as well as under several regional schemes. The benefits of these preferences have recently been questioned. Several authors have pointed out the under‐utilisation of these preferences due to the constraints attached. There have been claims that rules of origin requirements and administrative costs, as well as uncertainty on eventual eligibility, have deterred exporters from using preferential regimes. We calculate various indicators of the utilisation of preferences in the agricultural, food and fisheries sector. We conclude that only a very small proportion of the imports eligible for these preferences is actually exported outside a preferential regime. The rate of utilisation is therefore high. However, the flow of imports from the poorest countries remains very limited in spite of rather generous tariff preferences, which leads to questions over the overall impact of the preferential agreements. In addition, preferential regimes overlap, and in such cases some regimes are systematically preferred to others. We use econometric estimates of the (latent) cost of using a given preference to explain why particular regimes are used. We focus on possible explanations, such as the cumulation rules (that restrict the use of materials originating from other countries), fixed administrative costs and differences in the preferential margin.     

Quality Upgrades of EU Agri‐Food Exports

We investigate determinants of quality upgrades in EU agri‐food exports using panel data models for the period 2000–2011. By employing highly disaggregated data we show that the unit value of exports is positively correlated to level of economic development and size of population. Our results highlight the negative impacts of comparative advantage and trade costs on upgrades in export quality. Our analysis partly confirms the role of income distribution in quality specialisation, that greater income inequality increases specialisation in quality upgrades. Findings are robust when applied to alternative subsamples, including vertically specialised and final agri‐food products.     

An Analysis of Standards‐based Regulation in the EU Organic Sector, 1991–2007

Against the background of a discussion of recent analyses of capitalist subsumption of agriculture and of neo‐liberalism, the paper uses a ‘liberal governmentality’ framework to trace the development of the EU Regulation on organic agriculture from its adoption in 1991 to its recent repeal and replacement in 2007. The central argument is that regulatory development took the form of a cycle of elaboration, tightening, increasing deviation and finally a ‘return to principles’ in order to reduce deviation. At different stages in this cycle, different groups of ‘stakeholders’, including experts, were influential. Likewise, different forms of expertise became dominant or were sidelined. Meanwhile, ‘capital’ in its different incarnations remained marginal throughout. The paper leaves open the questions of the generalizability of this analysis to regulatory arenas other than the EU, as well as to regulatory objects more central than organic agriculture to capitalist accumulation.     

The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment

We analyze the long‐term impacts of large‐scale expansion of biofuels on land‐use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi‐country, multi‐sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land‐use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re‐allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.     

Factors Affecting Farmers’ Participation in Agri‐environmental Measures: A Northern Italian Perspective

Agri‐environmental measures play an important role in Italian rural areas, as shown by the financial commitment to the Rural Development programmes. However, in contrast with other European Union (EU) countries, policy‐makers still have limited experience on how farmers approach environmental incentive schemes. This paper casts new light on this issue from a northern Italian perspective. The rationale of the farmers’ decision‐making process is explored using two multinomial models. The first explains the probability of non‐participation or participation in one of three specific agri‐environmental measures. The model outcomes show that labour‐intensive farming types and high dependency of household income on farming activity constrain farmers’ participation, whereas previous experience, easy‐to‐implement environmentally friendly farm practices and adequate compensation of extra costs encourage participation. The second model explores the effect of farmers’ attitudes and beliefs on their predispositions towards participation in any of the schemes. The results highlight that, besides income factors, the farm's future in the business, and the relationship with neighbouring farmers and their opinions on environmentally friendly practices all have significant effects on adoption of agri‐environmental measures. The paper concludes by suggesting that farmers’ attitudes and beliefs, as well as the local behavioural influences, have to be taken into account when designing and communicating agri‐environmental measures.     

电商发展对农产品进出口贸易的影响分析

农产品电商改变了农产品传统的交易方式,拓展了需求空间,降低农产品进出口贸易成本,对农产品进出口贸易扩大有一定的促进作用。本文以我国1999—2017年的统计数据对农产品网络零售交易总额、冷链物流市场规模和主要农产品进出口额之间的关系建立计量模型并展开协整分析。研究发现农产品电商的发展对农产品进出口贸易扩大有促进作用,但不是对所有的农产品都有作用。农产品电商的发展和大豆出口额、水果出口额、食用植物油的进口额不存在长期的均衡关系。因此,本文建议完善农产品电商体系,结合农产品的特征提高农产品进出口贸易国际竞争力,促进国民经济增长。     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.     

Introduction to a Symposium on Global Finance and the Agri‐food Sector: Risk and Regulation

This symposium introduction brings together two debates; the debate on global food prices and speculation, and the debate on so‐called global ‘land investment’ or ‘land grabbing’. Both debates are examining two sides of the same phenomenon – the growing role of private financial investors in the global agri‐food value chains and the myriad consequences of it. The symposium moves beyond the identification of finance as an exogenous factor to the trends in the sector. It examines real‐life incarnations of finance in the sector by looking at investment arrangements, including connections with the state, and its (regional) variations. The symposium addresses three main themes. First, it explores the interplay of the state and private finance. It shows that the effect of regulation is limited in the face of increasingly mobile and complex investment flows. Second, it addresses the shifts and transfigurations of risk in the agri‐food sector due to financialization. Third, the symposium discusses to what extent, and how, the origins and identity of farmland investors still matters within an increasingly globalized financial sector. The paper concludes by identifying some related areas for further research.     

Harmonisation of food regulations and trade in the Single Market: evidence from disaggregated data

A structural gravity model is used to quantify the effect ofharmonisation of EU food regulations on intra-EU trade during1990–2001. We construct a database that identifies foodproducts covered by harmonised regulations at a very detailedlevel. We find, at different levels of aggregation, that harmonisationof food regulations has led to more intra-EU trade, and thatthe tariff equivalents of the cost of not harmonising food regulations,subject to the sub-sector elasticity of substitution, vary significantlyacross some food sub-sectors.     

Welfare‐at‐Risk and Extreme Dependency of Regional Wheat Yields: Implications of a Stochastic CGE Model

Stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored regional correlations in agricultural yields, assuming random shocks to be independent between regions. This could lead to misinterpretation of simulation outputs which ignore extreme positive or negative harvests at the global scale. We develop a multi‐regional CGE model which allows for five types of interregional correlation between wheat yields to analyse the vulnerability of countries against fluctuating international markets, focusing on Value at Risk (VaR) and extreme dependency. We find that global welfare risks could be underestimated by up to 33% if significant interregional correlations in yield shocks are not taken into account. Egypt, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Northern Africa are particularly vulnerable to global volatilities in terms of economic welfare.     

Drivers of vertical intra‐industry trade: the case of the Hungarian agri‐food sector

This article investigates the drivers of vertical intra‐industry trade (VIIT) in Hungarian agri‐food trade with the European Union (EU). It identifies three possible ways to measure intra‐industry trade (IIT) flows (GHM, FF, and N methods) and defines six hypotheses to test for the drivers of VIIT with three panel data models (static, dynamic, and FEVD). The results suggest that factor endowments are negatively, while economic size is positively and significantly related to VIIT. Distance and VIIT were found to be negatively related as is commonly the case in the standard gravity model. It was also found that VIIT is greater if a New Member State (NMS) is exporting agri‐food produce to an NMS, while EU accession has ambiguously influenced the share of VIIT. In general, it seems that our results are independent from model estimations and interestingly they do not differ considerably as we a priori expected. Moreover, our results seem surprisingly robust across various measurements of ITT.     

Farm Size Growth and Participation in Agri‐environmental Schemes: A Configural Frequency Analysis of the Swiss Case

This paper examines the relationship between farm growth and participation in agri‐environmental schemes, using the example of meadow extensification schemes in Switzerland. As a result of small farm sizes in Swiss agriculture, theory would suggest that economies of scale are considerable for market production activities, so that for growing farms it would be rational to intensify. Configural frequency analysis is used to identify and describe combinations of farm size development and proportion of meadows placed under agri‐environmental schemes. In the Swiss case, growing farms are likely to reduce their participation, whereas shrinking farms have a growing share of their meadows under extensification schemes.     

非法进口俄罗斯木材比重测算及影响因素分析

从中国木材贸易面临的形势和中俄木材贸易现状入手,对非法进口俄罗斯木材比重进行测算并分析其影响因素。指出中国非法进口俄罗斯木材比重较低,非法进口的产生一方面由于俄罗斯经济政策多变、木材出口关税不稳定,另一方面受欧美等发达国家大量消费木制品的推动,同时也有中国木材需求量大,中俄木材交易市场不规范的原因。提出了相应对策建议。     

Vertically Differentiated Trade and Differences in Factor Endowment: The Case of Agri‐Food Products between Hungary and the EU

The paper investigates the relationship between factor endowment and vertical intraindustry trade (IIT)in agri‐food products between Hungary and the EU. Intra‐industry trade is separated into its horizontal and vertical components on the basis of differences in unit values. Three different approaches to measuring IIT are employed and these are then tested using panel regression models. Results show vertical type trade is predominant in total IIT for agri‐food products. In order to achieve more general results, we consider different types of productive factors: land, human and physical capital. Using Flam and Helpman type vertically differentiated trade models, we find a positive relationship between factor endowment and vertical IIT. More importantly, using a measure of IIT that reflects the level of trade produces better regression results than those based on the degree or share of IIT.     

Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal

A country’s economic dependence on its trade with various other countries is often expressed in terms of trade values and shares. A country’s vulnerability to economic coercion by the countries with which it trades is similarly expressed in such terms. Using the recent issues relating to Australia’s coal trade with China as an example, we propose a better framework for assessing vulnerability to coercive trade instruments. We argue that the capacity for a given export trade to fund real consumption is a superior indicator of economic vulnerability than the simple value of the underlying trade flow. Our framework takes account of trade diversion, foreign capital ownership, the terms of trade, resource mobility, and capital and production tax rates. Using this framework, we demonstrate that the damage from trade sanction is far less than might be expected from a simple focus on the value of the affected trade flow alone.     

Labour Market Adjustment and Intra‐Industry Trade: The Effects of Association on the Hungarian Food Industry

The structure of Hungary’s food trade expansion over the period 1995–2003 and its implications for labour market adjustment are examined. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, we test the sensitivity of results to the choice of measurement and their implications for the results. Second, we introduce more industry‐specific control variables. Third, we distinguish the short‐ and long‐run adjustment effects. Our results provide some support for the smooth‐adjustment hypothesis of intra‐industry trade. Estimations confirm that industry‐specific variables may have a significant effect on adjustment costs.     

Capturing zero‐trade values in gravity equations of trade: an analysis of protectionism in agro‐food sectors

With significant improvements in its theoretical underpinnings, the gravity model has gained renewed interest in the agro‐food trade literature. Notwithstanding, there is a dearth of literature examining the relative trade restrictiveness of tariff barriers across a broad range of agro‐food sectors. This represents an important research gap, which this study sets out to fill. Furthermore, this research reconciles the application of zero‐inflated models with a sectorally disaggregated analysis. More specifically, employing a fully specified gravity equation, a Poisson estimator and variants of the Poisson model (Negative Binomial, Zero‐Inflated Poisson, and Zero‐Inflated Negative Binomial) provide statistically significant and theoretically consistent estimates, while allowing for the inclusion of zero‐trade values. A panel data model with fixed effects is also employed to improve the estimation of the parameters of interest. Estimation results reveal that in the vast majority of sectors examined, import tariffs are found to be statistically significant, whereas export refunds exhibit a statistically smaller role due to the nonsystematic nature of their application in world food markets. Model simulations of tariff barrier eliminations reveal limited trade gains, although there is encouraging evidence of “low” and “lower middle” per capita income country trade gains in wheat, red meat, dairy, sugar, and (particularly) rice markets.