Cross-Sectoral Comparison of Values Influencing Strategy

This article reports the findings of research into four case organizations from the public and nonprofit sectors. The findings build on international theory about strategic management, and argue that values influence strategy formulation. Chaffee's models of strategy are provided as a useful tool in differentiating the value-base which informs the strategic posture of an organization. Expressive values are more evident in nonprofit strategy formulation which aligns with Chaffee's interpretive approach to strategy. Instrumental values appear more in public organizations which align more with Chaffee's adaptive approach to strategy.     

Public Management Developments In Australia and New Zealand

The article argues that public manage-ment has undergone fundamental change, generated by developments in public choice and principal agency theories. These theoretical frames are being applied to management strategies and practices, where both competition and contracts feature significantly. The role of the state is subject to change as a result of these developments.     

证券咨询机构预测能力分析--以新股定位为例

本文以四家证券咨询机构对108只新股的开盘价预测为研究对象,文中首先给出数据和研究方法;接着对各机构预测误差进行比较以检验不同机构的预测能力;紧接着分析了机构预测价对新股短期投资的参考价值。     

The importance of small differences: the effects of research design on the comparative study of industrial relations reform in Australia and New Zealand

The aim of this paper is to explore the limitations associated with a most similar case research design. It argues that by adopting a most similar case research design, comparative work on industrial relations reform in Australia and New Zealand during the 1980s and 1990s has systematically ignored important historical differences between the two countries, underestimated the similarities in recent reforms and privileged organizational and institutional explanations for changes in industrial relations systems, at the expense of those which are based on systemic factors and material interests. More generally, this paper argues that methodological choices have significant consequences for the types of explanations generated by comparative research and that more serious attention needs be given to the epistemological assumptions embedded in research designs that are taken up by industrial relations researchers.     

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of the upward or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework for assessing the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success measures) are properly formulated to account for the realized signs and realized magnitudes of directional movements. We discuss a general approach to (directional) forecast evaluation which is based on the loss function proposed by Granger, Pesaran and Skouras. It is simple to implement and provides an economically interpretable loss/success functional framework. We show that, in addition, this loss function is more robust to outlying forecasts than traditional loss functions. As such, the measure of the directional forecast value is a readily available complement to the commonly used squared error loss criterion.     

Human resource strategies,workplace reform and industrial restructuring in Australia and New Zealand

In recent years, Australia and New Zealand have pursued two different routes of labour market reform. New Zealand opted for a radical experiment in the deregulation of industrial relations and other areas. Australia pursued a co-operative and co-ordinated approach to reform within the centralized arbitral system. Both reform initiatives were designed to stimulate improvements in organizational performance and cost competitiveness. In this paper, we argue that there are three main types of strategies that management can use to reduce labour cost and improve performance: productivity-enhancement, costminimization and work-intensification strategies. We argue that the former is a long-term sustainable strategy whereas the latter two are negative short-term strategies that may have deleterious longer-term effects. This paper reports the results of a cross-national survey in New Zealand and Australia into the extent of adoption of these management strategies. The results are presented by industry, employment size, mode of operation and countries as a whole. The research findings indicate that New Zealand's decentralization has encouraged a higher degree of employer experimentation with both positive and negative workplace change strategies, especially in the private sector. Australia's more centralized system limited the use of cost-minimization strategies but not productivity-enhancing strategies in the public and not-for-profit sector. The research found evidence of work intensification in both countries.     

南京市人口规模预测与空间分布引导研究

人口规模预测是城市总体规划编制工作中的基础性工作,本研究结合南京城市总体规划修编对城市人口规模进行了多方案、多角度的预测与校核,并针对现状问题和城市发展目标提出了相应的人口发展策略和空间布局建议,为科学确定城市用地规模和用地布局提供了支撑.     

Investigating the accuracy of cross-learning time series forecasting methods

The M4 competition identified innovative forecasting methods, advancing the theory and practice of forecasting. One of the most promising innovations of M4 was the utilization of cross-learning approaches that allow models to learn from multiple series how to accurately predict individual ones. In this paper, we investigate the potential of cross-learning by developing various neural network models that adopt such an approach, and we compare their accuracy to that of traditional models that are trained in a series-by-series fashion. Our empirical evaluation, which is based on the M4 monthly data, confirms that cross-learning is a promising alternative to traditional forecasting, at least when appropriate strategies for extracting information from large, diverse time series data sets are considered. Ways of combining traditional with cross-learning methods are also examined in order to initiate further research in the field.     

最优组合预测在四川省人才需求预测中的应用

本文依据相关资料数据,构建灰色GM(1,1)模型和二元线性回归模型,分别对四川省2005-2015年从业人才需求进行预测,然后使用二模型最优组合预测对预测结果进行修正。在此基础上,提出了实现预测目标的策略建议,为四川省人才培养决策提供参考。