New guidelines from the National Cholesterol Education Program: what is the impact on risk assessment?

The National Cholesterol Education Program has developed a set of guidelines for optimal levels of serum lipids that are recommended to reduce the risk of coronary artery disease. This article compares those values to lipid levels found in insurance applicants.     

Teaching children and youths about risk and risk analysis: what are the goals and the risk analytical foundation?

Abstract

Work has recently been initiated to teach children and youths about risk and risk analysis, highlighting conceptual issues, risk assessment, risk communication, as well as risk management (decision-making). Using this work as a point of departure, this article provides a discussion of the foundation of this type of teaching: what do we wish to obtain, in short- and long-term perspectives, and what is the scientific risk analysis basis? Key pillars for the development of a scientific platform for such teaching is presented and discussed.     

Pricing multiasset equity options: How relevant is the dependence function?

In this paper we test how different choices for the dependence function can affect the prices of a set of multiasset equity options. We conduct the analysis for various 5-dimensional baskets of UK shares, and a wide range of payoffs for the multiasset options, consistent with the instruments traded on the market. We also test the relevance of the dependence specification over both volatile and quiet market scenarios. Interestingly, we find that, in most circumstances, the choice of a dependence structure richer than the standard linear correlation does not seem to affect option prices substantially. However, the dependence function becomes more relevant in particularly volatile market conditions.     

Breast cancer risk perceptions and breast cancer worry: what predicts what?

This longitudinal study explored the relationship between perceived breast cancer risk and worry. We measured both absolute and comparative risk perceptions, and also used the Gail algorithm to assess the accuracy of participants' risk perceptions. Three hundred and one women ages 40–75 participated in a two‐part study assessing how format of breast cancer risk presentation affected perceptions of risk. Relative to their Gail scores, women were biased pessimistically about their own absolute breast cancer risk and yet largely accurate about their comparative breast cancer risk. Perceived comparative risk, but not perceived absolute risk or biases in absolute or comparative risk, predicted subsequent worry. Worry predicted subsequent perceived absolute risk and biases in absolute and comparative risk. These results suggest that women's emotional reactions to breast cancer risk are based on accurate (unbiased) perceptions of their comparative risks. In turn, greater worry prompts a re‐evaluation of absolute risk as well as changes in risk biases. Implications for screening are discussed.     

What is the systemic risk exposure of financial institutions?

I compare the performance of three measures of institution-level systemic risk exposure — Exposure CoVaR (Adrian and Brunnermeier, 2016), systemic expected shortfall (Acharya et al., 2016), and Granger causality (Billio et al., 2012). I modify Exposure CoVaR to allow for forecasting, and estimate the ability of each measure to forecast the performance of financial institutions during systemic crisis periods in 1998 (LTCM) and 2008 (Lehman Brothers). I find that Exposure CoVaR forecasts the within-crisis performance of financial institutions, and provides useful forecasts of future systemic risk exposures. Systemic expected shortfall and Granger causality do not forecast the performance of financial institutions reliably during crises. I also find, using cross-sectional regressions, that foreign equity exposure and securitization income determine systemic risk exposure during the 1998 and 2008 crises, respectively; financial institution size determines systemic risk exposure during both crisis periods; and executive compensation does not determine systemic risk exposure.     

Learning to organise risk management in organisations: what future for enterprise risk management?

This paper identifies recurring issues in the regulation of new technologies through an historical review of the risk management of automobiles in the 1800s. Parallels are drawn between the regulation of early automobiles and that of the regulation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) today. It is found that many of the regulatory challenges facing UASs are analogous to those which faced the automobile industry more than a century and half ago and that the need for informed and objective decision making in policy development is reinforced. A systems engineering approach, based on general systems theory and decision‐based design principles, is then proposed as a means for improving the objectivity, transparency and rationality in the risk management decision making process. An example risk management decision making scenario is given within the context of a small UAS operating over a populated area. The results obtained from this case study illustrate how even simple analysis can support the decision making process and highlights some of the potential challenges in the regulatory approach currently applied to UASs.     

The elasticity of taxable income and income-shifting: what is “real” and what is not?

Previous literature shows that income taxation significantly affects the behavior of high-income earners and business owners. However, it is still unclear how much of the response is due to changes in real economic activity, and how much is caused by tax avoidance. In this paper, we distinguish between real responses and income-shifting between tax bases. We show that separating income-shifting responses can largely affect the welfare analysis of income taxation. In our empirical example of Finnish business owners, we find that income-shifting accounts for a majority of the overall elasticity of taxable income, which significantly decreases the marginal excess burden.     

Scuba diving: how high the risk?

The host factors that represent the most risk for scuba-diving safety are poor fitness, overweight, chronic diseases, structural abnormalities of the heart and lungs, and multiple risk factors for CAD. Any of these factors, plus inexperience, a history of irresponsible behavior, or participation in technical diving should alert medical underwriting that a scuba diver has excess risk for fatal accidents.     

Empirical evidence on the global minimum tax: what is a critical mass and how large is the substance-based income exclusion?

This paper presents empirical evidence on the proposed global minimum tax (GMT) of the OECD's Pillar 2. First, it addresses how many, and which, countries or country groups can be seen as constituting a ‘critical mass’ for its successful implementation; given such a critical mass, remaining jurisdictions worldwide will have an incentive to implement the GMT as well. Second, it assesses the generosity of the substance-based income exclusion (SBIE), which is informative for the revenue collected under the GMT.     

Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU: what factors and groups influence policy changes?

For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a study on policy change among the most influential ERA stakeholders from Europe. We interviewed 43, purposively sampled, participants from the European safety authorities, plant protection product industry and academia. Transcribed interviews underwent thematic analysis conducted separately by two coders. As we followed the advocacy coalition framework, our findings focus on stakeholders’ processes, interrelations and values behind the ERA policy change. The main challenges emerging from our analysis turned out to be the slow uptake of scientific developments into ERA and very broadly defined protection goals. The use of safety factors and cut-off criteria left risk assessors with many uncertainties. With ERA in its current form it turned out to be impossible to determine whether the current scheme is over- or under-protective. Still, the study shows that the problem of over- or under-protectiveness lies deep in the perception of stakeholders and depends greatly on their priorities. Academics strive for better ecological relevance as a priority. They have concerns that ERA is oversimplified. Regulators worry that ERA relies too much on risk mitigation and is possibly not protective enough, but at the same time, the majority believes that the assessment is well established and straightforward to follow. Industry representatives would like to see ERA based more on probabilistic risk assessment. Recent changes, according to risk assessment and management practitioners have led to an inevitable increase in complexity, which is not perceived as a positive thing, and does not necessarily translate into better risk assessment.     

What is the role of consensus statements in a risk society?

Abstract

This paper explores the role of consensus statements in a risk society. It uses Beck’s theory of risk to show that scientists have employed consensus statements in order to re-establish faith in science. Through analysing the goals of participants in consensus fora and comparing them to the fora processes, this paper considers how consensus statements and guidelines in public health can be viewed as remedies for the decline in expert trust experienced in the current risk society. To collect data, 25 interviews were undertaken with consensus panel participants from the USA, UK and Australia. Interviewees were from peak national agencies/commissioning agencies and were categorised as policymaker, practitioner and consumer stakeholders. Participants made recommendations for improving consensus processes in order to mitigate perceptions of risk. These were: (1) clearly stated goals; (2) robust, evidence-based and transparent processes of methodological development and participation/deliberation/decision-making; (3) diverse stakeholder representation, including increased consumer participation; (4) transparency about conflicts of interest; and, (5) robust, carefully worded recommendations. Poor-quality consensus statements can further entrench scepticism about the scientific enterprise. While consensus statements can be seen as a tool for moderating perceptions of risk, policymakers and scientists must ensure the integrity, strength and transparency of their research methods. This has the potential to facilitate policy, improve scientific accountability to the public and legitimise processes. While fostering greater trust is not a primary objective for scientists, an increase in legitimacy of process can be an important unintended consequence of improved quality consensus statements and an important antidote to the risk society.     

Continuous rainbow options on commodity outputs: what is the real value of switching facilities?

We develop real rainbow option models to value an operating asset with the flexibility to choose between two commodity outputs. We provide a quasi-analytical solution and a numerical lattice solution to a model with continuous switching opportunities between two commodity outputs, taking into account operating and switching costs. The models are applied to an illustrative case, demonstrating that the quasi-analytical solution and the lattice approach provide near identical results for the asset valuation and optimal switching boundaries. We find that the switching boundaries generally narrow as prices decline. In the presence of operating costs and temporary suspension, however, the thresholds diverge for low enough prices. A fertilizer plant with flexibility between selling ammonia and urea is valued in an empirical section using our real option models. Despite the high correlation between the two alternative commodities, ammonia and urea, there is significant value in the flexibility to choose between the two. Both strategic and policy implications for stakeholders in flexible assets are discussed, with some generalisations outside the fertilizer industry.     

Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?

This paper estimates and compares two groups of high-frequency market-based systemic risk measures using European and US interbank rates, stock prices and credit derivatives data from 2004 to 2009. Measures belonging to the macro group gauge the overall tension in the financial sector and micro group measures rely on individual institution information to extract joint distress. We rank the measures using three criteria: (i) Granger causality tests, (ii) Gonzalo and Granger metric, and (iii) correlation with an index of systemic events and policy actions. We find that the best systemic measure in the macro group is the first principal component of a portfolio of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads whereas the best measure in the micro group is the multivariate densities computed from CDS spreads. These results suggest that the measures based on CDSs outperform measures based on interbank rates or stock market prices.     

How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?

This paper empirically investigates the importance of asymmetric conditional covariance when computing the risk premium of international assets. Conditional second moment asymmetry of equity indices is significant and varies over time. The risk premia estimated allowing for asymmetry are statistically and economically different from risk premia estimated without allowing for asymmetry. In particular, an international investor who ignores covariance asymmetry overestimates required returns for equities of the G4 countries and for the world market, on average.     

Credit risk modeling strategies: the road to serfdom?

This paper aims at presenting some practical issues in modeling default risk of a single commercial credit counterparty from the perspective of a large retail bank. We define default risk as the probability that a counterparty’s intrinsic credit quality deteriorates within a given time horizon such that contractual agreements cannot be honored. This work gives an insight into using scoring/rating models in a credit environment of a large European bank. Contrary to many banks, we did not define the segments in a first step with a view to developing the rating tools in a second step. Our approach has, to some extent, followed a different path. Iteratively, we both defined the borders for a particular segment and selected an appropriate rating tool. More particularly, customer segmentation has been carried out on the basis of various rating tools’ goodness-of-fit criteria. The topics cover customer segmentation using goodness-of-fit measures, data measurement levels and optimization algorithms, rating tool calibration to the central default tendency and communication to the end user. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Access to services: what are the real needs?

Adequate accessibility to managed care services is typically a key determining factor when an employer decides to implement a managed care plan. And although it can be difficult for an employer to determine what constitutes adequate accessibility, it is necessary in order for managed care utilization and associated cost savings to be maximized.     

Risk aversion vs. individualism: what drives risk taking in household finance?

Despite a considerable premium on equity with respect to risk-free assets, many households do not own stocks. We ask why the prevalence of stockholding is so limited. We focus on individuals’ attitudes toward risk and identify relevant factors that affect the willingness to take financial risks. Our empirical evidence contradicts standard portfolio theory, as it does not indicate a significant relationship between risk aversion and financial risk taking. However, our analysis supports the behavioral view that psychological factors rooted in national culture affect portfolio choice. Individualism, which is linked to overconfidence and overoptimism, has a significantly positive effect on financial risk taking. In microdata from Germany and Singapore, as well as in cross-country data, we find evidence consistent with low levels of individualism being an important factor in explaining the limited participation puzzle.