跨境资本流动、宏观审慎监管与资本结构动态调整

在进一步放开资本管制之前,需要厘清跨境资本流动的经济后果。本文揭示了跨境资本流动对企业资本结构动态调整的影响,以及宏观审慎监管在这一过程中的作用。研究发现：跨境资本流动会降低企业资本结构调整速度,且跨境资本直接投资的影响最强;资本型宏观审慎监管能够对这一现象进行缓解,但贷款型和流动性型宏观审慎监管则会加剧这一现象。进一步研究发现：跨境资本流动分别通过降低债务规模和权益规模的方式,导致资本结构向下偏离和向上偏离企业的资本结构调整速度下降;融资约束和财务柔性是跨境资本流动影响企业资本结构调整速度的传导渠道;跨境资本激增和急停同样会造成企业资本结构调整速度下降。本研究对科学设计资本账户开放进程和跨境资本流动宏观审慎监管框架具有一定政策价值,并对优化企业资本结构具有一定实践启示。     

宏观审慎下我国跨境资金流动监管问题分析

国际金融危机后,为了更好地防控跨境资金流动带来的系统性风险,各国监管部门开始推进跨境资金流动监管方式的改革,其基本思路在于稳步推进宏观审慎管理方式,构建宏观审慎管理体系.本文将以我国跨境资金流动监管现状出发,探析现行监管体系的不足与缺陷,进一步探析如何根据我国的基本国情与现阶段特征,丰富与完善跨境资金流动宏观审慎管理体系框架,为维护国家经济金融安全,保持我国经济平稳健康发展提供参考.     

跨境资本流动宏观审慎政策防范输入性金融风险机制研究

随着中国金融市场开放程度扩大,输入性金融风险防范和金融稳定的重要性日益凸显。本文将金融稳定概念引入传统的“三元悖论”进行机制分析,发现跨境资本流动宏观审慎政策实施有利于提升金融稳定性。本文系统梳理监管机构使用的跨境资本流动宏观审慎政策工具,详细探究作用机制,构建政策指数进行实证分析。结果显示,宏观审慎政策可以通过调节跨境资本流动降低输入性金融风险,缓解外部风险对国内风险的传导。拓展研究表明,政策对于控制外汇市场输入性风险效果最好,股票和债券市场次之;仅针对外汇跨境流动的政策工具效果好于仅针对人民币以及同时针对外汇和人民币跨境流动的工具;数量型工具对控制股票和债券市场输入性风险效果更好,而价格型工具对外汇市场风险防范作用更强;政策对新兴经济体输入性风险的整体防控效果好于发达经济体;宏观审慎政策与货币政策搭配使用,可以强化风险防范作用。在上述结论基础上,本文提出完善跨境资本流动宏观审慎政策框架的建议。     

宏观审慎监管框架下有关医院金融会计问题研究

在国际经济形式日益严峻的环境背景下,国际组织与各监管机构也逐步完成了相应的会计准则和国际监管的水平.对于加强宏观审慎监管已经成为国际金融管理制度改革的具体核心内容,根据我国国内的国情,我国在党的十七届五中全会上明确提出了“构建逆周期的金融宏观审慎管理制度”的有关要求,但是,这些手段在具体的实施过程中,金融会计领域尚存在监管不和谐等问题.尤其是在医院的金融会计问题上表现的更为突出,医疗问题在国内的整体形式还相当严峻.本文就具体针对怎样将宏观审慎监管和医院的金融会计问题相结合,共同促进国内医院方面的金融会计更好的发展.     

金融系统性风险与宏观审慎监管

系统性风险是整体性和全局性的金融风险,其来源日益多样化和复杂化。监管当局应加强宏观审慎监管,尽量降低系统性风险爆发引起系统性危机的可能性,以维护金融体系乃至整个宏观经济稳定。     

我国中央银行在宏观审慎监管框架中的核心作用

宏观审慎监管通过对风险相关性的分析、系统性重要金融机构的监管,来防范和化解系统性金融风险,避免经济危机的发生.次贷危机后,人们对于宏观审慎监管的重要性已达成共识,但对于由谁来扮演监管主体则存在很多争议.本文研究指出,中央银行所承担的维护金融稳定、制定和实施货币政策、最后贷款人等职能,使其能够在宏观审慎监管中发挥核心作用.次贷危机后,美、欧、英、法逐步调整了监管格局,表明对宏观审慎监管框架中中央银行的核心地位认识比较一致.本文通过对我国央行货币政策麦克洛姆规则的检验,证明其在宏观审慎监管框架中具有有效调控的能力.指出我国中央银行应在宏观审慎监管框架中扮演监管主体角色,并提出了相关的政策建议.     

跨境资本流动与宏观周期研究述评

实际经济周期理论(RBC)无法解释国内偏好(Home Bias)和资产异质性(Idiosyncratic Asset)问题,因而无法全面阐释金融危机时期国际资本流动。通过大量文献将投资组合理论引入开放动态随机一般均衡(ODSGE)模型较好地解决了以上问题。与此同时,对国际资本流动的研究从一阶矩扩展到二阶矩,即由单独关注收益因素到关注收益因素并关注风险因素,构建了研究国际资本流动与经济周期波动一般性分析框架。这一新进展对于研究中国实施资本管制和构建国际资本流动管理体系具有较强的理论和现实意义。文章对以上研究成果进行了梳理,重点梳理了跨境资本流动与金融危机、周期波动的相关研究并对之进行述评。     

监管压力、经济周期与宏观审慎政策效果*

本文基于我国52家主要银行2007—2015年的面板数据,考察了监管压力和经济周期对宏观审慎政策效果的影响。相关实证结果表明：（1）监管压力的上升能够显著促使银行增加资本缓冲,逆周期的宏观审慎政策在总体是有效的。（2）监管压力的上升会促使银行加快其资本缓冲的调整速度,这在城市商业银行和农村商业银行等中小银行表现得尤为明显。（3）经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生一定影响,但这一影响在不同性质的银行中有所不同。对于国有商业银行和股份制商业银行,经济上行期的政策效果相对较弱,而在经济下行期,政策效果相对较强。对于城市商业银行和农村商业银行,经济周期的影响恰好相反。（4）在顺周期性机制下,银行行为存在过度承担风险以获取高收益的倾向,通过提升监管压力可以有效抑制这一倾向,从而促使银行降低风险,提高稳定性。     

An Alternative Post-Keynesian Framework for Understanding Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This article contributes to the establishment of a framework for the analysis of international capital flows, with a specific focus on emerging markets. It is based on a “monetary” analysis of the economy, as well as on the works of Hyman Minsky and Jan Toporowski in particular. The key aspects of such an approach are the following. First, in a monetary economy, capital flows need to be understood as “flows of funds” that pertain to the realm of financial choices, as opposed to the traditional understanding of capital flows as based on “real” variables, such as saving and investment. A consequence of this is the need to focus on gross flows rather than capital flows. Second, liquidity preference considerations also apply at the international level, particularly in relation to the liquidity of emerging-market currencies that, in turn, depends on context-specific “Keynesian fundamentals.” Third, the rise of institutional investors is the key historical development in the financial system, shaping the current reality of cross-border capital flows, including to emerging markets. I argue that institutional investors’ liabilities, in light of the theories of Minsky and Toporowski, are one of the most important variables in determining these investors’ portfolio choices. I synthesize these elements by defining capital flows to emerging markets as the demand for emerging-market assets by institutional investors. I propose a framework to categorize the various channels that guide this demand.     

对冲基金的最新发展与监管框架重构研究

以近年来对冲基金的迅猛发展为背景，总结对冲基金竞争优势的来源，在分析现行国际监管制度缺欠的基础上，探讨以完善基金治理结构、强化信息披露和实施以风险为基础的监管措施三方面构筑有效合理的监管制度，具有重要现实意义。     

Exchange Rates and Income-Sensitive Capital Flows

Capital flows have recently been sensitive to income expectations, as well as to interest rates. This article considers some implications of this for policy.     

The New Basel Capital Adequacy Framework

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is about to publish a second consultative paper on the reform of the 1988 Accord on capital adequacy. The new document takes into account the comments received on the June 1999 consultative paper, gives a much clearer picture of crucial aspects of the reform that were only presented in very general terms in the earlier paper, and quantifies most of the parameters that will be needed to calculate the capital requirements.
Although considerable progress has been made towards reaching operational status, several aspects of the regulation still need to be worked out and further reflection is needed on the best way to tackle some of the more problematic issues that have been identified. Comments, suggestions, criticisms such as today's seminar will certainly provide, are therefore most welcome. There will be time to take them into consideration, as the final draft of the regulation will not be completed before the end of 2001.
My presentation is divided into three parts: I first illustrate the objectives of the reform, then describe the essential features of the new regulation, and finally discuss the possible impacts of its implementation.
(J.E.L. G21, G28).     

The Ecosystem Services Framework and Natural Capital Conservation

Work at the interface of ecology and economics has inspired a major transformation in the way people think about the environment. Increasingly, ecosystems are seen as capital assets, with the potential to generate a stream of vital life-support services meriting careful evaluation and investment. We first present the concepts underpinning the ecosystem services framework (ESF), laying out the scope and limitations of the approach. We then describe the major challenges in making the ESF operational: (i) detailed information at scales relevant to decision-making; (ii) practical know-how in the process of institutional design & implementation; and (iii) compelling models of success in which economic incentives are aligned with conservation. We close with a brief review of pioneering experiments now underway worldwide, which illustrate how these challenges can be overcome.     

The Macroeconomic Implications of Regulatory Capital Adequacy Requirements for Korean Banks

The capital adequacy requirement, combined with the flight to quality, contributed to a drastic credit slowdown and a sharp recession in Korea in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Since most banks were placed under the strengthened capital adequacy constraints, they reduced loans to firms with high credit risks. As a result, bank-dependent small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) were badly hit, and eventually demand for bank loans fell. The reduction in loans was most visible among banks with poor capital adequacy, yet the overall change in bank portfolios had a disproportionately large negative influence on financial conditions for SMEs. In conclusion, the banks' response to capital adequacy requirements resulted in changes in the loan/bond ratio which, in turn, reduced loans to SMEs and caused a sharp cut in production. The resulting contraction in SME production created a polarized industrial structure and a chronic depression in the traditional sectors of the economy. The introduction of capital adequacy requirements (CARs) in the wake of financial crisis worsened conditions for SMEs and weakened the validity of the CARs that were mainly necessitated by successive failures among larger firms.     

金融发展与国际资本流动结构的实证分析

笔者借鉴国际贸易理论中的引力模型,考察了国际资本流动规模及其构成的决定因素.实证研究表明:金融发展对资本流动规模及其构成起着决定性作用,金融发展水平越高的国家,其资本流动规模越大,同时,权益投资在总投资中所占的比重较大,而债权投资在总投资中的比重较低.此外,虽然金融发展对各类资本流动均有着显著的正向促进作用,但其对不同类型的资本流动的作用大小是不同的,股权投资对金融发展最敏感,次之是FDI和债权投资.     

Capital Flows to Asia: The Role of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy played an important role in the Asian experience with capital inflows. Central banks used monetary policy to contain the threat of overheating, but the resulting increases in interest rates attracted additional inflows. Empirical measurement of these links shows that tight monetary policy was an important source of inflows to Indonesia and Thailand in recent years, and that the independence of monetary policy decreased during the inflow period.     

国际资本流动风险及有效监管

本文通过分析国际间资本流入,尤其是短期的投机资本流入和对外债务资金流入的风险,以及资本流出的风险,揭示了田际资本流动对中国经济所造成的巨大影响,同时,针对目前国际资本流动的主角--私人资本流动的现象进行了剖析,提出了加强对国际资本流动的监管,提高金融监管有效性的政策建议.