中央银行与商业银行的博弈分析

近期为了抑制我国经济中出现的通货膨胀势头发展，使经济稳定运行，国家采取了一系列的财政货币政策，但是这些政策都收效甚微，有时甚至出现了逆经济政策意向而动的现象。例如中央银行在发出对某些过热行业进行贷款限制的信号时，商业银行出现了逆经济政策而动的现象，对于正在审批中的贷款项目，快速审批发放，甚至出现了对这些行业或者产业贷款加速营销的现象。这种现象对经济运行的调控十分不利，但是商业银行普遍存在这种现象。     

The impact of reserve requirements on free bank failures

Conclusion The evidence indicates that a specie reserve requirement influences bank closings and bank failures. States enacting a strong specie reserve requirement showed a significant difference in bank failings and closings from states that enacted lenient specie reserve requirements. This study suggests that the discrepancy in experiences between states with different specie reserve requirements may be due to a link between the short-term liability (i.e., banknotes) and the long-term assets (i.e., state bonds). This hypothesis implies that the free banknotes made up a substantial portion of a free bank's liabilities; hence, state bonds were a substantial portion of a free bank's assets. Therefore, in order to make a conclusive statement about the influence of the specie reserve requirement on the free banking experience, more information is needed on the protfolios of the individual free bank.     

The impact of Japan's financial stabilization laws on bank equity values

In the fall of 1998, two important financial regulatory reform acts were passed in Japan. The Financial Reconstruction Act created a bridge bank scheme and provided funds for the resolution of failed banks. The Rapid Recapitalization Act provided funds for the assistance of troubled banks. These acts provided government assistance to the banking sector and called for reforms aimed at strengthening the regulatory environment. Using an event study framework, we examine the anticipated impact of these regulatory reforms. Our evidence suggests that the Financial Reconstruction Act was expected to hurt large banks, while the anticipated impact of the act by financial strength was mixed. In contrast, the anticipated impact of the Rapid Recapitalization Act was expected to be antireform, as news favorable to its passage disproportionately favored large and weak Japanese banks.     

The trade off between central bank independence and conservativeness

This paper introduces a parameter for central bank independencein a monetary policy game with a conservative central bankerIt tries to explain the optimal degree of central bank independenceand conservativeness by four economic and political determinants,both theoretically and empirically There appears to be a tradeoff between central bank independence and conservativeness.Then, by comparing the optimal degree of conservativeness andindependence with the actual degree of independence, we wantto identify the optimal degree of conservativeness for 12 memberstates of the European Union.     

央行将被迫降息

中国人民银行行长周小川1月12日在出席国际清算银行会议期间称,有必要制定强有力的政策措施来防止中国经济出现大幅放缓,不过,中国经济减速至今一直是适度的。     

改革汇率形成机制 央行不应主导交易

8月5日,国际三大评级公司之一的标准普尔宣布下调美国主权信用评级,由“AAA”调降到“AA＋”,评级展望为负面。这是美国主权信用评级历史上首次遭遇降级,是国际金融领域叶l又一极具影响力的黑天鹅事件,对国际金融市场的稳定乃至全球经济的复苏前景可谓雪上加霜。标普全球主权信用评级主管戴维·比尔斯说,标普作出降级决定的主要原因是美国政治决策过程的不确定性增加。标普的降级触动了国际市场的脆弱神经,     

人民币未来汇率走势预测及对我国商业银行的影响研究

近一年来,人民币汇率的持续升值已给我国宏观经济和各行各业带来不同程度的影响,特别是未来一段时间内人民币会持续升值的预测更需要各行各业从容应对。商业银行,作为金融业的核心主体,应转变经营管理理念和方式,以应对人民币升值所带来的消极影响。     

日本央行干预外汇市场的实证研究

本文运用计量经济学的分析方法考察了日本央行对外汇市场的干预效果,以得出外汇干预是否对日元汇率产生影响及该影响能否持久的结论。研究结果表明:2003年1月1日——2004年3月31日,日本央行干预对日元汇率产生一定的影响,但是影响很短暂;即使长期内连续干预也无法阻止日元升值;日本央行干预没能削减日本国内的通货紧缩的压力。因此,汇率变动的最终决定性因素不是外汇干预,而是货币所在国国内经济、对外经济的发展状况和国际资本等变量的变动。     

The impact of commercial bank branch expansion on energy efficiency: Micro evidence from China

The debate has long prevailed as to whether the financial sectors can enhance energy efficiency. We attempt to provide new insight into this debate from the perspective of commercial bank branch expansion. This paper manually collects the longitude and latitude of commercial bank branches and manufacturing firms in China, and constructs multiple bank branch expansion variables at the firm level. Then, by utilizing Environmental Survey and Reporting database, Annual Survey of Industrial Firms, and firm-level patent application dataset from 1998 to 2009, this paper empirically examines the impact of commercial bank branch expansion on firms' energy efficiency for the first time and discusses the potential impact channels. We find that the expansion of commercial bank branches within a radius of 10 km of firms has improved the manufacturing firms' energy efficiency. Furthermore, we also confirm that there exist multiple heterogeneous nexuses between the bank branch expansion and energy efficiency. Finally, the financial availability caused by the bank branch expansion is not able to affect the energy efficiency, whereas the bank competition will increase the energy efficiency. Also, the bank branch expansion increases energy efficiency by promoting capital renewal instead of technological innovation.     

中央银行开办外币清算业务的可行性研究

一、我国目前的外币清算架构以及管理现状我国现行的由国家外汇管理局(以下简称“外管局”)行使中央银行清算职能而开办的外币清算业务是在原外汇移存与提取业务的基础上演变而发展起来的。上世纪的1992年,外管局批准25个省市分局开办了外汇移存和提取业务。由于当时各外汇指定     

Inflation dispersion and central bank accommodation of supply shocks

Zusammenfassung Internationale Streuung der Inflationsraten und das Auffangen von Angebotsschocks durch die Zentralbank. -Dieser Aufsatz untersucht, ob die Zunahme in der Streuung der Inflationsraten zwischen zehn Industriel?ndern in den siebziger Jahren darauf zurückgeführt werden kann, da? die Zentralbanken Angebotsschocks wie die ?lpreiserh?hung unterschiedlich stark aufgefangen haben. Dabei wird die Reaktion der Geldbeh?rden auf Angebotsschocks und zyklische Nachfrageschwankungen in einem Modell dargestellt. Die Hauptergebnisse sind, da? das Ausma?, in dem Angebotsschocks aufgefangen wurden, von Land zu Land erheblich variiert hat und da? ein gro?er Teil der verst?rkten Streuung der Inflationsraten in den siebziger Jahren mit ziemlicher Sicherheit diesem Verhalten zugeschrieben werden kann.

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Résumé Dispersion internationale d'inflation et I'accomodarion de la banque centrale aux chocs d'offre. -Cet article analyse si l'augmentation de la dispersion des taux d'inflation entre dix pays industriels dans les années soixante-dix peut être associée à la mesure différente avec laquelle les banques centrales ont accommodé aux chocs d'offre, par example aux augmentations du prix pétrolier. La réponse des autorités monétaires aux chocs d'offre et aux changements cycliques de demande est reproduit dans un modèle. Les résultats principaux sont que le degré d'accommodation aux chocs d'offre était apparemment assez différent parmi les pays et qu'une grande partie de la dispersion des taux d'inflation augmentée dans les années soixante-dix peut être contribuée raisonnablement à ce comportement.

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Resumen Dispersión de las tasas de inflación y acomodacion de shocks de oferta através del banco central. -Este trabajo examina si el aumento de la dispersión de las tasas de inflación de diez países industrializados en los a?os setenta puede estar relacionada con las distintas formas de acomodación por parte de los bancos centrales de shocks de oferta como el de la suba del precio del petróleo. La respuesta de las autoridades monetarias a los shocks de oferta y a movimientos de la demanda es incorporada a un modelo. Se concluye que el grado de acomodación de shocks de oferta parece haber variado considerablemente según los países y que gran parte de la mayor dispersión de las tasas de inflación en los a?os setenta se debe a este comportamiento.

     

A nonnormative theory of inflation and central bank independence

A Nonnormative Theory of Inflation and Central Bank Independence. — The authors study monetary policy under different central bank constitutions when the labor-market insiders set the minimal wage so that the outsiders are involuntarily unemployed. If the insiders are in the majority, the representative insider will be the median voter. The authors show that an independent central bank, if controlled by the median voter, does not produce a systematic inflation bias, albeit equilibrium employment is too low from a social welfare point of view. A dependent central bank, in contrast, is forced by the government to collect seigniorage and to take the government’s re-election prospects into account. The predictions of their theory are consistent with the evidence that central bank independence decreases average inflation and inflation variability, but does not affect employment variability.     

中央银行宏观经济背景下独立性问题研究

对于中央银行独立性,究其根本是指中央银行相对于所在国政府的独立性,其独立程度也反映了该国政府对中央银行的控制和影响程度。文章通过对中央银行独立性问题的分析,提出对我国中央银行独立性的建议,以期对我国中央银行的独立性有所助益。     

对网络统计系统的若干思考

随着信息技术的发展 ,网络银行将成为未来银行的重要组成部分 ,促使银行机构虚拟化 ,推进货币电子化和全球金融一体化。传统银行应调整经营战略 ,裁减营业网点 ,增强网上交易功能。     

Controlling inflation in transition economies: The relevance of central bank independence and the right nominal anchor

Controlling inflation is a central problem in transition economies. This paper asks under what conditions or even whether central bank independence helps in this task. The conclusion shows that merely imposing legal independence on the central bank may be ineffective or even counterproductive. It is necessary to make a monetary strategy and the responsibilities and restrictions of central bank policy transparent to the public. In addition, it is important that the right nominal anchor is selected—one that is, or is believed to be, effective and sustainable. Both monetary targeting and inflation targeting are assumed to be unsuitable for most transition countries. Instead, some kind of dynamic exchange rate targeting appears to be the most reasonable choice.     

Measuring central bank independence: a tale of subjectivity and of its consequences

The paper first scrutinises the two indices of central bankindependence (CBI) most commonly used in the empirical literature.It defines and discovers an impressive interpretation spread,a major criteria spread but a negligible weighting spread inthose indices Second, it framing the robustness of the empirical‘common knowledge’ on the benefits of CBI. It findsthat, when rankings produced by various CBI indices are regressedwith, among others, average inflation, 87 5% of die regressioncoefficients are not statistically significant Third, followingrecent theoretical developments, it suggests an alternativeapproach to the measurement of a central bank's operationalstatus.     

The real exchange rate and intervention under the managed float: Dilemmas of a central banker

Conclusion This paper has attempted to rationalize some recent widespread trends in the balance of payments of several countries. It has been argued that the exchange-market intervention techniques followed by certain countries especially in the presence of high capital mobility, may have contributed to the observed instability. Such a notion is not new. The innovation of the note is to demonstrate that even a gradulaist and anticipated popular intervention policy can be potentially destabilizing.The usual disclaimer applies with respect to all remaining errors.