共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 140 毫秒
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信息化与就业问题研究 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
一、信息化对就业的影响 (一)对就业量的影响 1.应用信息技术提高生产效率,短期内使企业用工人数绝对减少,萎缩劳动力需求,长期具有刺激劳动力需求扩张的作用.从技术冲击的短期效应来看,由于技术进步提高了劳动生产率和资本有机构成,同量产品和资本所需劳动力投入会逐渐下降,从而产生技术进步的就业挤出效应.从技术进步的长期影响来看,技术进步能大大增加社会产出,提高社会的人均收入水平并导致社会消费结构的改变和产业结构的演进,从而刺激企业和行业对劳动力的需求. 相似文献
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资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析 总被引:64,自引:0,他引:64
本文主要分析在中国转型期的投资、人力资本、技术存量的变化、城市化以及产业结构变化对就业的影响。分析显示,现阶段影响中国就业的主要因素依次是工资的增加、人力资本、技术水平的提升,其他因素对就业的影响不明显。结论的现实意义是,制定符合中国资源禀赋特点的技术发展路径是减少技术进步对就业替代作用的重要措施。放松资本、劳动力要素市场的管制和加强人力资本的积累也是发挥市场化就业形成机制不可忽视的基础性因素。 相似文献
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广东省城镇就业量决定模型的定量估计结果表明,资本投入和实际工资是引起广东省城镇有效就业人数增加的两大主要因素。资本投入有利于就业人数的增加,而实际工资上涨对就业人数增加有抑制作用;市场化程度提高对广东省城镇有效就业影响不显著,但会有正作用;保持工资的适当增长幅度是促进就业的有效手段。 相似文献
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本文通过构建劳动力需求和供给模型,考察了影响美国制造业就业的主要因素,并基于最优消费决策条件的经验数据测量模型(K-R),重点研究了人民币实际汇率变动对美国制造业就业的影响;然后通过实证研究全面分析了1981~2011年度人民币实际汇率和美国国内因素对美国制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明:无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升和人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动制造业就业增长;从长期来看,人民币实际汇率贬值和美国实际利率下降能够在一定程度上促进制造业就业增加;但从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上升对制造业就业的正向影响更加显著。 相似文献
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公共投资对居民消费存在拉动和挤出两种效应。文章利用2000-2010年全国30个省份的数据计算出农村基础设施投资存量,采用动态面板模型对农村基础设施投资存量与农村居民消费之间的关系作了实证分析。结果表明:从全国范围来看,基础设施投资对居民消费具有"挤出"效应,中部地区也同样呈现出"挤出"效应,东部和西部地区效应不明显。从基础设施结构来看,电力、燃气、水利和环境基础设施,卫生、社会保障和社会福利、文化体育和娱乐业基础设施对居民的消费具有"挤出"效应;交通运输、仓储、邮政以及信息传递和软件业基础设施,教育设施、科技服务和地质勘探基础设施对农村居民消费影响不显著。就此,应加大对西部及落后地区的投入,中、东部地区适当控制投入;完善基础设施的投资结构,增加对电力、水利、交通、教育、科技等基础设施的投入;引入民间资本投资农村基础设施等。 相似文献
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产业结构升级对劳动力就业有正反两方面的影响。以工业化和重工业化为特征的产业结构升级,既会因为提高资本劳动比而对劳动力就业产生挤出效应,又会因为提高劳动生产率而扩大经济规模从而吸纳更多的劳动力就业。本文通过将产业结构升级分解为结构变迁和效率提升两个部分,构建了一个综合考虑产业结构升级的正、反两方面的就业效应测算模型,在此基础上对1997~2002年、2002~2007年我国产业结构升级的就业效应进行了测算,并得出结论:产业结构升级的总就业效应为负;但工业化和重工业化并没有加重就业挤出;结构变迁的就业效应有所提高,效率提升的就业效应有所降低。 相似文献
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本文首先运用了超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型对中国各省市的技术效率进行了测算,然后在控制市场化程度、人力资本的情况下,检验了服务业FDI和制造业FDI对各省市技术效率的长短期效应,并分析了其区域间差异。本文发现:(1)在短期,服务业FDI会促进我国各省市技术效率水平的提高,而制造业FDI则具有显著的抑制作用;但从长期看,制造业FDI会产生明显的正向技术溢出效应,而服务业FDI则会抑制我国技术效率的提高。(2)两类FDI影响技术效率的长短期效应在不同地区和全国的情况并无差异,不过,东部地区的外资对技术效率的短期效应和长期累积效应都要比中西部地区明显一些。(3)人力资本存量的增加可以显著提高各省市技术效率。对外开放程度、金融市场化程度以及劳动力市场化程度的提高也会对各省市的技术效率产生积极影响。 相似文献
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外商直接投资的动态挤入挤出效应——基于全国及地区差异的分析和检验 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
针对FDI的静态挤入挤出效应不能反映中国经济发展不同阶段中FDI对国内投资影响的差别.本文将Agosin和Mayer模型扩展为一个动态的模型,并对FDI的静态及动态挤入挤出效应进行了实证研究.结果表明:FDI对全国国内资本产生了挤出效应,对东、中、西部地区分别产生了微弱的挤出效应、显著的挤入效应及严重的挤出效应;从FD... 相似文献
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M. Alper Çenesiz Christian Pierdzioch 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2010,7(4):391-409
We used a dynamic two-country optimizing model featuring efficiency wages to analyze the implications of capital mobility
for labor market volatility. Capital mobility magnifies the short-run effects of productivity shocks and monetary shocks on
employment and the real wage, but dampens the medium-run effects. The overall effects of capital mobility on the volatility
and the cyclical properties of employment and the real wage are moderate. 相似文献
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This paper concerns the implications of progressive labor incometaxation for wage determination in dynamic general equilibrium.The main purpose is to analyze the general equilibrium effectsof increased tax progressivity in terms of the responses inthe real wage rate, employment, the capital stock, output andconsumption. Among the results, we find that increased tax progressivityincreases the real wage rate and decreases employment underboth union and competitive wage formation. 相似文献
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本文试图考察在我国技术进步偏向资本增加情况下,资本深化对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业就业增长的反向作用。鉴于我国技术进步具有要素偏向性,本文在构建理论模型时加入有偏技术进步假设,发现在技术进步偏向资本要素投入的条件下,资本深化会加深对就业的负向冲击。并利用wind数据库公布的中国制造业2383家上市企业2007-2018年数据,从横向和纵向两个维度验证了这点,结果发现:(1)在技术进步偏向资本要素投入时,资本劳动比增长率提高会降低整个制造业的就业增长率,技术进步吞噬就业。但是,资本深化对劳动密集型与资本密集型、技术密集型的就业增长作用呈反向趋势。(2)自供给侧结构性改革提出后,该反向变动趋势加强。这意味着,在技术进步和制造业深度融合过程中,劳动者需不断提高自身技能,提高就业竞争力;企业和政府配合提供培训支持,防止工人由于技能不匹配而导致大规模的结构性失业。 相似文献
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本文在中国贸易非均衡发展现状基础上,构建计量模型,从商品价格机制、技术进步机制和生产率进步机制角度探讨中国贸易开放影响中国制造业行业间工资差距的具体传导机制。研究发现:(1)就制造业总体而言,贸易主要通过技术进步机制和劳动生产率机制来影响行业工资,造成行业间工资差距的扩大。(2)具体而言,劳动力密集型行业中,进出口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率共同作用于行业工资差距;在资本密集型行业中,进口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率是扩大工资差距的动因;在技术密集型行业中,出口贸易是工资差距扩大的主导因素。 相似文献
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Unemployment and the Real Wage Gap: A Reappraisal of the German Experience.- The major European economies experienced a rise in unemployment since the late 1970s. At the same time, the real wage gap, a widely used measure of wage pressure, declined. This paper develops an analytical framework that relates the two phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the interaction of capital accumulation, wage setting and labour demand. The model is applied to the particular case of Ger-many and found to be consistent with the observed behaviour of wages, investment, output and employment. 相似文献
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F. van der Ploeg 《De Economist》1986,134(3):269-288
Summary A tax and incomes policy is proposed to alleviate the problem of unemployment. Income taxes and wages are simultaneously reduced to leave the post-tax real wage unaffected. This will stimulate employment, but may lead to a never-ending expansion of government debt unless there is a shift from bond-finance to money-finance. The main disadvantage of this scheme is that money-finance is more inflationary, but this may not matter as the net real wage is unchanged. However, when allowance is made for the role of capital formation, the inflationary consequences of money-finance will stimulate investment and contribute to a further expansion of activity and employment. The effects of two other reflationary packages are also investigated.The author thanks Rob Alessie and Lex Meydam for some helpful discussions, which suggested the topic of the paper. The author also thanks Professors Theo van de Klundert and S. K. Kuipers for their many constructive and helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. 相似文献
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There are few studies that directly address the upskilling issues in developing countries. Since theoretical analyses of these issues usually yield different results, upskilling in developing counties, and the factors of upskilling, if any, are rather empirical questions. This study shows that upskilling that occurs in developed countries in terms of the ratio of the number of white‐collar workers to that of blue‐collar workers also occurred in the Republic of Korea, one of developing countries. Increasing demand for highly‐skilled workers reflected in their employment and wage shares can be largely explained by “within industry’ shifts, not by “between industry” shifts, especially in the manufacturing industry. To further investigate the causes of these shifts, changes in white‐collar shares are regressed on the capital‐output and R&D‐sales ratio. Estimated coefficients are all positive, suggesting capital‐skill complementarities and skill‐biased technological change. 相似文献
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Michael Pflüger 《Review of World Economics》2001,137(3):473-500
Trade, Capital Mobility, and the German Labour Market. — This paper sets up three structural variants of a general equilibrium
model of a small open economy with three sectors (exportables, importables, non-tradables) and three factors (internationally
mobile capital and immobile skilled and unskilled labour) in order to analyse the employment and wage effects of globalisation
shocks. The model is numerically implemented for West Germany in 1980 on the base of input-output tables and employment data
from a random sample of social security accounts. Overall this study indicates that the globalisation process does not have
strong effects on unemployment and/or the wage differential in West Germany. 相似文献