控制股市泡沫与货币政策目标

从美国近年的经验来看，90年代的大牛市确实让美联储左右为难，格林斯潘一方面时常警告美国股市出现了非理性的躁热(irrational exuberance)，但真要动用利率政策来干预股市时却显得非常小心谨慎。他曾经在1998年12月15日的《纽约时报》上说道：“想通过市场干预来戳破泡沫，有个根本性的问题不能解决，那就是你必须比市场本身更了解市场。”     

银行存款准备金率调整对股市的影响

存款准备金率是一种非常有效的货币政策工具,主要是指我国中央银行强制要求商业银行的一定比率保持资金流动性。为了对可能出现的通货膨胀以及经济过热等紧急情况,我国多次上调了存款准备金率,起到了一定的成效,这些措施的执行对股市也不可避免的产生了影响。本文结合笔者多年研究时间,通过列举部分实例,简要分析了存款准备金率对股市的影响,对相关从业人员具有一定的参考价值。     

银行存款准备金率调整对股市的影响

存款准备金率是一种非常有效的货币政策工具,主要是指我国中央银行强制要求商业银行的一定比率保持资金流动性.为了对可能出现的通货膨胀以及经济过热等紧急情况,我国多次上调了存款准备金率,起到了一定的成效,这些措施的执行对股市也不可避免的产生了影响.本文结合笔者多年研究时间,通过列举部分实例,简要分析了存款准备金率对股市的影响,对相关从业人员具有一定的参考价值     

美联储货币政策正常化与人民币汇率形成机制改革

美联储开启货币政策正常化进程以来,美元汇率走势和全球资本流动发生了重大变化。在此背景下,中国先后进行了两次人民币汇改,以促进外汇的供求平衡。根据对有关数据的观测分析,可以看出美联储货币政策正常化对中国的影响是动态演变的,要客观看待外部冲击对中国跨境资本流动的影响,把握有利时机果断推进人民币汇改。     

应对人民币过快升值的货币政策建议

人民币在过去几年里有较大幅度的升值,通过分析人民币的现状,包括升值原因和升值带来的消极影响,以及对比德国和日本曾采取的措施,提出了一些适合当前我国的货币政策建议,来实现人民币缓慢稳定升值和我国经济稳定发展。     

人民币升值对中国股市的影响及政策建议

2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革启动,人民币汇率浮动区间不断加大,人民币升值对股票市场的影响也开始显现。理顺汇率和股票价格这两个核心变量的互动机制,对我国维持经济高效健康的发展具有重大意义。     

我国现行货币政策工具比较分析

我国中央银行目前运用的货币政策工具主要有： 存款准备金率、中央银行再贷款、再贴现、利率政策和公开市场业务。现行的这些货币政策工具各有特点, 也各有长短。本文对它们的运用历史进行了简要回顾, 对这些货币政策工具的现状进行了比较分析,并进一步提出了完善货币政策工具的政策建议     

央行货币政策工具应综合运用

今年以来，为缓解经济过热，减少货币信贷投放，从4月开始国家启动了新一轮的宏观调控。央行上调贷款利率，上调银行准备金率，加大公开市场操作，在几个月内连续采取了多种手段，力图减缓经济发展的速度。国家统计局公布的经济数据显示，中国第二季度GDP增长达到11.3％，创出12年来的新纪录。央行提高存款准备金还只是其动用货币政策工具调控宏观经济的前奏，后续是否还会出台更严厉的货币政策，还得看下一阶段的经济增长率、通货膨胀率、货币供求等诸多方面的反应。同时，利率、存款准备金率以及汇率都可能成为未来央行货币政策的工具。     

基于SVAR模型的货币政策传导与股市波动

本文通过构建实际利率、货币供应量变动率和上证综指收益率的三元结构SVAR（结构向量自回归）模型,进行定量分析。主要创新结论有：我国利率已经由以往纯粹的外生变量逐步转化为经济系统的内生变量,应继续推进利率市场化改革;利率的调整往往对股市具有较大影响,如果频繁的运用存贷款利率货币调控政策,则对股票市场的发展产生阻碍作用;所以现阶段的调控措施,央行应该侧重于运用数量型货币工具存款准备金率,而非传统的价格型货币工具存贷款利率,才能维护股市稳定,保证经济持续健康发展。     

Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets

We examine asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy surprises on stock returns between bull and bear markets in the period 1994 to 2005. We ask how these impacts respond to the relative ability of firms to obtain external finance. We find that the impact of a surprise monetary policy in a bear market is large, negative, and statistically significant, and this holds across size decile portfolios. The impact of a surprise policy action in a bear market for most industries is significantly greater than the impact of surprise monetary policy in a bull market. Controlling for the capacity for external finance, stock returns of firms in bear states respond more than firms in bull states. Capacity for external finance is more important in a bear market, as it partially mitigates the larger impact of monetary policy in a bear market.     

A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states

Bull and bear markets receive considerable media and academic attention. It is widely believed that such states are important determinants of wider market dynamics, yet no agreed definition exists. This paper investigates frameworks for ex post classification of asset prices in two-state (bull and bear) markets. An emphasis is placed on identifying state transition points that might achieve consensus. A number of potential difficulties with existing methodologies are highlighted. A principle-based approach is adopted from which a new, flexible, hierarchical methodology is proposed that addresses these issues and permits varying degrees of resolution allowing secondary trends such as bear rallies to be incorporated. The methodology is shown to be optimal under one measure of performance.     

Weekend gold returns in bull and bear markets

This study examines the weekend effect in gold returns during bull and bear markets over the period 1975 through 2011. It shows that gold returns from close on Friday to close on Monday are significantly lower than returns during the rest of the week. This result is due largely to gold returns during bear markets. During gold bull markets, gold weekend returns are not significantly different from weekday returns. The study shows that the effect has substantial economic implications for gold investors. The effect is shown to be related to a significantly negative skewness in the weekend returns.     

Stock volatility predictability in bull and bear markets

The recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, in this paper, we use a large data set of high-frequency data on individual stocks and a few popular time-series volatility models to comprehensively examine how volatility forecastability varies across bull and bear states of the stock market. We find that the volatility forecast horizon is substantially longer when the market is in a bear state than when it is in a bull state. In addition, over all but the shortest horizons, the volatility forecast accuracy is higher when the market is in a bear state. This difference increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Our study concludes that stock volatility predictability is strongest during bad economic times, proxied by bear market states.     

An investigation into risk propensity in bull and bear markets

This paper addresses the primary contribution of prospect theory against the landscape of an individual’s self‐attributed risk propensity. Risk propensity is captured using the IPI psychometric questionnaire for a sample of 521 participants. Participants are also presented with probability‐based decisions, that are framed as both negative and positive prospects. Results show that personality constructs, specifically risk‐taking, become a consistent and emerging factor in decision‐making within the positive domain. In the negative domain, personality constructs associated with risk become more muted and are less likely to be a factor in decision‐making.     

激烈的调控孕育债券牛市

2007年的中国债券市场,用"一年的熊市"作为描述最为贴切.这一年,十年期国债收益率上涨了135bp,十年期金融债收益率也提高了140bp.主要的宏观经济指标、物价数据屡创新高,央行连续6次加息;新股发行吸干银行间市场流动性;美国次级债券危机.所有坏的因素集中爆发,将债券收益率不断上推,甚至,刚刚诞生不到两年的中国信用债券市场也一片狼藉.     

Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets

In this paper we test whether mean reversion in stock market prices presents a different behavior in bull and bear markets. We date the US bull and bear periods using Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We examine the order of integration in the S&P 500 stock market index covering a daily period from August 1929 to December 2006 in bull and bear phases. Our results indicate the existence of different episodes of mean reversion, which mainly correspond to bull market periods.     

An accounting analysis of the risk-return relationship in bull and bear markets

This study provides evidence that accounting beta (earnings and cash flow-based) provides information consistent with the risk-return relationship in up- and down-markets. We are not able, however, to provide similar evidence using market beta. Considering that investors' ability to assess the risk-return trade-off in up- and down-markets is central to efficient portfolio formation, the results suggest that accounting data can provide appropriate measures of portfolio upside and downside risk.     

Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models

Despite the voluminous empirical research on the potential predictability of stock returns, much less attention has been paid to the predictability of bear and bull stock markets. In this study, the aim is to predict U.S. bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models. Based on the analysis of the monthly U.S. data set, bear and bull markets are predictable in and out of sample. In particular, substantial additional predictive power can be obtained by allowing for a dynamic structure in the binary response model. Probability forecasts of the state of the stock market can also be utilized to obtain optimal asset allocation decisions between stocks and bonds. It turns out that the dynamic probit models yield much higher portfolio returns than the buy-and-hold trading strategy in a small-scale market timing experiment.