Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework for the Philippines

A bi-regional and multi-market computable general equilibrium model that focuses on the agricultural sector of the Philippines' economy in 1987 is constructed. This paper presents the basic structure of the model and carries out some cost-benefit analyses to assess the impact of alternative trade reform policies on the economy. It is found that various liberalization policies can produce large benefits, but any single policy implemented separately may incur intolerable costs. However, a combination of trade liberalization and currency devaluation, coupled with target income support and income tax reform, can achieve balanced results that are beneficial to the economy without worsening income distribution and food consumption of the poor.     

Honduras: application of a CGE model

This paper constructs a social accounting matrix for Honduras to serve as a database for the computable general equilibrium (or CGE) model adapted to the characteristics of the Honduran economy. A number of simulations of economic policy modifications were carried out to quantify their possible impact on Honduran economy. This paper first considers the general characteristics of the Honduran economy and the main policy reforms put into effect these last few years. CGE model characteristics for Honduras are briefly presented, and the Honduran SAM for 1991 is described. Several simulations were run to assess the impact of selected policy changes. Results show that, in general, structural modification policies used to redirect the Honduran economy outwards (trade liberalization and devaluation of the lempira) favor agriculture, not only in terms of its domestic production but also concerning income distribution. The results are consistent with the ones proposed in the literature on economic development that maintains that interventionist policies linked to the import substitution model that were in fashion until the eighties were anti-agrarian. On the other hand, a reduction in public expenditure promotes less the Honduran rural sector, though it does not stop doing so. However, results also point to the fact that there are underlying problems in carrying out these liberalization measures. The clearest case is free trade, since compensating the drastic reductions to state income that are brought by the reduction or elimination of tariffs is no easy task.     

Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach

This paper measures the potential impacts of the devaluation of domestic currency of the small, developing, landlocked and transition South Asian economy of Nepal, which is lagging behind in policy studies. The impacts on growth, distribution, price changes in factor and product markets, and on selected macroeconomic features are measured. Using a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix data, we conclude that devaluation is expansionary but mostly benefits the rich, thus leading to a more uneven income distribution. In general, the expansion of economic activities occurs in agricultural and industrial sectors, whereas services activities contract. However, when the rate of devaluation is high, the agricultural sector also starts contracting. To this typical developing economy, devaluation causes an improvement in saving investment and export/import ratios, whereas the budget deficit widens.     

A supply-demand model of public sector size

We develop a supply-demand model for the public sector with a political equilibrium. The model considers the inefficiencies caused by taxes and includes costs associated with the provision of public goods to consumers. We show that the size of the public sector may depend on the median voter's income, population size, costs associated with paying tax, and quality of institutions, all of which reflect the costs of provisioning public goods. The estimates for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries are compatible with theoretical predictions; however, they do not confirm Wagner's law, which holds that the public sector share does not grow with an increase in income. A greater dependency ratio and the Gini coefficient increase demand for redistribution policies. Greater government effectiveness is a supply-side factor that increases the public sector's share in an economy.     

Flat tax reform: A quantitative exploration

This paper explores quantitatively the general equilibrium implications of a revenue neutral tax reform in which the current income and capital income tax structure in the U.S. is replaced by a flat tax, as proposed by Hall and Rabushka (1995), (The Flat Tax, 2nd ed. Hoover). The central aspects of such reform, the impact of tax reform on capital accumulation and labor supply, as well as its distributional consequences, are analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Main results are that, (i) the elimination of the actual taxation of capital income has an important and positive effect on capital accumulation; (ii) mean labor hours are relatively constant across tax systems, but aggregate labor in efficiency units increases; (iii) in all circumstances analyzed, the distributions of earnings, income and especially wealth become more concentrated.     

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC REFORM ON RURAL-URBAN WELFARE: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

This paper demonstrates how economic reform undertaken in a developing country will impact not only macroeconomic variables but also income distribution between different household groups, particularly between rural and urban households. Unlike the well-known link to macroeconomic variables, the path connecting economic reform with income of rural-urban households is more equivocal and thus demands an inquisition. The CGE model constructed in this study is designed to serve such a purpose. When applied to the Indonesian case, both the static and dynamic simulations indicate that the post-reform progress in the country's macroeconomic condition is likely accompanied by worsening—albeit slightly—household income distribution between income groups. The non agricultural sector appears to be the major beneficiary of the reform. From the dynamic simulation, a worsening distribution is also found between rural and urban areas. However, results of both simulations also show that improved poverty conditions are likely achieved following the reform.     

USING A CGE MODEL TO IDENTIFY THE POLICY TRADE-OFF BETWEEN UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION. THE EFFICIENT PHILLIPS CURVE

This paper provides a new reading of a classical economic relation: the short-run Phillips curve. Our point is that, when dealing with inflation and unemployment, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision-making problem. Hence, we use so-called multiobjective programming in connection with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to determine the combinations of policy instruments that provide efficient combinations of inflation and unemployment. This approach results in an alternative version of the Phillips curve labelled as efficient Phillips curve. Our aim is to present an application of CGE models to a new area of research that can be especially useful when addressing policy exercises with real data. We apply our methodological proposal within a particular regional economy, Andalusia, in the south of Spain. This tool can give some keys for policy advice and policy implementation in the fight against unemployment and inflation.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model

A two-sector economy is modeled in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. If the steady state emerging in the absence of a minimum wage exhibits unemployment, the imposition of a binding wage floor lowers employment in the service sector without affecting employment in manufacturing. The wage differential between the two sectors shrinks and the quality of the service improves, but unemployment increases. In contrast, if this steady state exhibits full employment, a binding (but relatively low) minimum wage may bring about a more egalitarian income distribution and upgrade the quality of jobs in the service sector, without creating unemployment.     

Missing links in key sector analysis

In general terms, key sectors analysis aims at identifying and quantifying the economic impact of a sector in a given economy. For a sector, we mean here either an industry or a region, or even a cluster of them. Quite a few measures and methodologies of varied complexity have been proposed in the literature, from multiplier sums to extraction methods, but not without debate about their properties and information content. All of them, to our knowledge, focus exclusively on the interdependence effects that result from an input–output structure of the economy. By so doing the approach misses critical links beyond the interindustry ones. A productive sector's role is that of producing but also that of generating and distributing income among primary factors and households as a result of production. Thus, when measuring a sector's role, the income generating process should not be omitted if we want to elucidate the sector's true economic impact. A simple way to make the missing income links explicit is to use the SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) facility. Extending an extraction methodology to the SAM we compare lost output with and without the missing links. We observe that substantial differences in sectoral lost gross output arise but, even more important, we capture the implied shifting in the rank ordering of sectors.     

Tax enforcement policies,tax evasion and time allocation

Several studies examine the effect of tax rates on households’ labor supply decisions in attempts to account for observed differences in work hours across countries. Interestingly, these studies fail to consider a fundamental action associated with taxation: tax evasion. This paper introduces, into a general equilibrium model of household labor supply, the possibility that households can evade labor income taxes. We show that the relationship between tax-enforcement policies, the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure and the elasticity of substitution between formal and informal work is key to explain formal labor supply in major OECD countries. In a model without informal work, there is a positive relationship between the elasticity of substitution and the tax rate on formal income and people tend to work more. This is the case for the United States, Greece, Finland and the United Kingdom. This relationship becomes negative once informal activities are introduced and the model can explain formal labor supply better in countries where agents work relative less, i.e., in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Spain, Norway and Sweden. We also obtain estimates of hours worked in the informal sector for these countries.     

An Income Tax Increase to Fund Higher Education: A CGE Analysis for Chile

An increase in income taxes to fund education was one of the demands made by the social movements that emerged in Chile in 2011. Currently, the Chilean Congress is enacting a tax reform to raise money for higher education. This study aims to show the dynamic effects on the general equilibrium of the Chilean economy under two alternative approaches: a subsidy to lower the price of higher education (public and private), and greater spending on public higher education to reduce household payments for education. The social accounting matrix (SAM) used to calibrate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has 38 economic sectors, including the production structure of private education and public education. The study mainly concludes that a subsidy policy has significant advantages over increasing higher public education spending, regarding its effects on variables such as GDP, investment, and household incomes, while both policies have a similar effect on poverty and income distribution.     

A technoeconomic model for sectoral and economy-wide development planning

A combined multisector model of economy-wide development planning and a process-wide planning of a major sector of the economy are considered. Static and dynamic versions of the model are derived, and various controlling mechanisms, objective functions and model refinements are presented. Application of the methodology to the development planning of the energy sector in Israel is also discussed.     

EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

The shadow economy as an equilibrium outcome

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax evasion where agents choose to report some of their income. Unreported income requires using a payment method that avoids recordkeeping in some markets—cash. Trade using cash to avoid taxes is the ‘shadow economy’ in our model. We then calibrate our model using money, interest rate and GDP data to back out the size of the shadow economy for a sample of countries and compare our measures to traditional reduced form estimates.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES ON THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY USING AN SCGE MODEL

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Brazilian economy. We present a two-sector, open-economy, Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium model that distinguishes among three economic classes and assumes no financial sector. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We compare the medium-run effects of five experiments: an income transfer towards formal workers, a transfer to informal labour, an investment shock, an exchange rate depreciation, and a policy mix that combines (exchange rate) depreciation with income transfer towards modern (sector) workers. The policy measures reinforce each other in terms of their potential to enhance growth. Our findings underscore the importance of redistributive policies to foster economic expansion.     

EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION AND THE GROWTH OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

In modern developed economies it is the service sector that generates jobs. In Anglo-Saxon economies, where employment protection legislation is low and unions comparatively weak, services account for three-quarters of income and four-fifths of jobs. Yet in France, Germany and Italy, where the reverse is true, the service sector accounts for much less of the economy in terms of income and jobs. This article shows that employment protection legislation – defended by trade unions still dominating manufacturing in continental Europe – results in higher unemployment rates and also negatively affects the growth of services.     

THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF FORMAL AND INFORMAL SECTORS IN INDIA

We evaluate the relative performance of formal and informal sectors in India by looking into their productivity difference. Recognizing the intersectoral linkages in the economy, the competitive general equilibrium prices are computed; these signal the productivities. Our model synthesizes frontier analysis with the general equilibrium approach to generate shadow prices. The formal activities are found to be more productive than the informal. However, the informal services sector is as efficient as the formal one. There would be an overall productivity gain of 22% to the economy if factors were allocated to productive activities. The shadow prices from the model indicate that the formal capital and informal capital are scarce factors, while it has been the opposite for formal (regular) and informal (casual) labour. Formal labour is more productive than its informal counterpart; formal capital and informal capital are equally productive.     

浅议我国现行个人所得税制改革

个人所得税作为调节居民收入分配的一个重要税种,在我国经济生活中起着至关重要的作用。个税调整直接关系百姓钱袋子,在通胀形势下成为关注热点。随着我国经济的增长,居民可支配收入也在逐年增多,但是作为调节贫富收入差距的"个人所得税"这一税收杠杆却滞后于我们经济的变化,这些问题不仅严重影响了税收调节经济的功能,而且对社会稳定也极为不利。本文在阐明了我国个人所得税制改革中存在的相关问题后,有针对性的提出了相关学者的政策建议。