Product-market strategy and underwriting performance in the United Kingdom’s property–casualty insurance market

Drawing on a framework from the organizational economics literature, we utilize a panel data design to examine empirically the effect of motor insurance and liability insurance business on the overall underwriting performance of insurers operating in the United Kingdom’s (UK) property–casualty insurance market. We find that participation in liability insurance contributes positively to underwriting performance, whereas motor insurance is associated with inferior underwriting performance. Additionally, we find that higher reinsurance ratio is associated with better underwriting performance, but reduced profit margins. Our results show that higher leverage too is associated with better underwriting performance. We conclude that our results could have potentially important commercial and/or policy implications.     

The Theory of Optimal Stochastic Control as Applied to Insurance Underwriting Cycles

We use the theories of optimal stochastic control and engineering process control to analyze the well-known phenomenon of insurance underwriting cycles in continuous time. We show in a continuous time framework that underwriting cycles can be explained with a model where premiums are set rationally, but where there are various reporting and regulatory lags. We find that the observed cycle length depends on the length of these underlying lags. Our result can be seen as consistent with previous empirical work showing underwriting cycles varying across countries and lines of insurance. In the event that no lags exist, our result is also consistent with more recent literature suggesting that insurance cycles may not exist.     

Understanding price competition in the German motor insurance market

This paper analyzes price competition in the German motor insurance market since 1994 and looks for evidence to back up a claim frequently found in the trade literature—that there have been two recent price wars in this industry, the first in 1996–1999, the second in 2005–2006. In a first step, we analyze the development of the German motor insurance market and compare it to that of other property-liability lines of business. In a second step the applicability of price war definitions found in the marketing literature to the German motor insurance market is checked. In a third step, a comparison to reference cases from other industries, where price wars have been subject to academic analysis, is conducted to complement the analysis. We conclude that, contrary to reports in the trade literature, the periods of 1996–1999 and 2005–2006 should be considered as times of intense competition in the motor insurance industry, not as times of price war.     

Impact of Underwriting Cycles on the Solvency of an Insurance Company

Abstract

This paper studies the solvency of an insurance firm in the presence of underwriting cycles. A small or medium-size insurance company with a price-taker position in the market is considered. Its premium income is assumed to obey an autoregressive process with cycles. Specifically, the premium income for a specific calendar year is influenced by the market experience for the last couple years. Under this classical AR(2) dynamics governing the premium income, an explicit expression for the ultimate ruin probability is derived, using a martingale approach, in the lighttailed claims case. Furthermore, the logarithmic asymptotic behavior of the ultimate ruin probability as well as the typical path to ruin are investigated. Then a comparison is made with the classical case where the same company operates on a market without such cycles. Asymptotically, the presence of market cycles is shown to increase the risk for the company. Numerical illustrations are performed on Canadian motor insurance market data and support the theoretical analysis.     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...     

我国经济周期对非寿险承保周期的影响研究

采用HP滤波法对我国1999年～2011年季度非寿险市场承保赔付率进行研究,发现我国存在3～5年的非寿险承保利润周期现象。通过建立回归模型分析方法证明经济周期对承保利润率周期有显著影响,进而采用VAR模型的脉冲响应和方差分解考查经济周期对承保周期的具体贡献率。研究结果表明整个经济变量波动共同解释作用达到22%,远远超过了其他干扰项带来的影响。     

ICARE: A Knowledge-Based Underwriting System

This paper reports on the development of ICARE (Intelligent Computer Assisted Risk Evaluation), a knowledge-based system for underwriting personal lines of insurance at a large insurance company. ICARE uses rule-based and object-oriented programming techniques to implement the subjective decision processes of expert underwriters for automobile insurance lines. The system is an easy-to-understand, easy-to-maintain, and efficient software program in which nontechnical underwriters can maintain their own knowledge base of underwriting rules and guidelines.     

Structured settlement annuities, part 1: overview and the underwriting process

Structured settlement underwriting is the underwriting of medically impaired lives for the purchase of an annuity to fund the settlement. Other than risk assessment, structured settlement (SS) underwriting has little in common with traditional life insurance underwriting. Most noteworthy of these differences is the relative lack of actuarial data on which to base decisions about mortality and the necessity for prospective thinking about risk assessment. The purpose of this paper is to provide a foundation for understanding the structured settlement business and to contrast the underwriting of structured settlements with that of traditional life insurance. This is the first part of a two-part article on SS annuities. Part 2 deals with the mortality experience in SS annuitants and the life-table methodology used to calculate life expectancy for annuitants at increased mortality risk.     

The Satellite Insurance Market and Underwriting Cycles

This research analyses whether underwriting cycles are present in an important but often overlooked line of insurance, satellite insurance. Unlike previous underwriting cycle studies, this study uses rates-on-line and capacity devoted to satellite insurance as well as loss ratios to determine the applicability of cycles. The sample period encompasses virtually the entire history of the satellite insurance industry, 1968–2010. The results indicate that cycles are present in the minimum and average rates-on-line and in capacity, but not the loss ratio. Regression analysis is carried out on the rate-on-line and capacity variables, and the regression results support the rational expectations/institutional intervention hypothesis and the capacity constraint (capital shock) hypothesis.     

我国巨灾风险管理模式的设计及其运作

商业化、事前补偿的巨灾保险是巨灾风险管理发展的趋势。我国应该逐步构建以政府为主导,涵盖政府、保险公司、再保险公司、资本市场和潜在受灾者五个主体的巨灾风险管理模式。在实际运作中,要考虑巨灾保险承保、保险公司巨灾风险转移和区分潜在客户等。     

我国车险业务经营绩效评价研究——以某财险公司湖南分公司为例

财产保险公司绝大部分业务来自于车险业务,因而车险业务的绩效关系到财险公司的经营业绩,甚至整个保险业的稳定和健康发展。从承保、理赔、续保及财务四个方面选取17个具体指标构建车险业务绩效评价指标体系进行有效性检验,计算某财险公司湖南分公司车险业务绩效水平指数,评价其车险业务经营状况。结果显示：该公司财务指标对车险业务影响的权重最大,综合车险指数呈上升趋势,表现出较好的经营状况。     

Are health insurers in multiple lines of business less profitable? An examination of scope economies in health insurance

In markets where companies can offer multiple products or services, production costs may decline, and profitability may increase as business scope expands. Using a sample of health insurers from 2015 to 2018 with data reported in the annual NAIC Supplemental Health Care Exhibit, we test whether scope economies exist among health insurers. We evaluate the relationship between scope and four profitability metrics—the medical loss ratio, the expense ratio, the underwriting profit ratio, and a profit efficiency measure obtained using a data envelopment analysis technique. We test two competing hypotheses from prior literature on scope economies in insurance. The strategic focus hypothesis states performance is higher for insurers that specialize in one line of business. The conglomeration hypothesis states performance is higher for insurers that operate in multiple lines of business. Our results provide evidence in support of the strategic focus hypothesis among US health insurers.     

基于保险业务流程的知识管理问题——以团体健康保险新契约核保业务流程为例

保险行业是一个流程导向性的行业,也是一个高度知识密集型的行业。保险公司员工需要在某个专业领域多年的知识积累,包括流程知识、业务领域的技术、复杂问题的应急能力等经验知识,这些都是为了高效地完成工作。而这些类型的知识普遍存在于人们的大脑中,并且具有不稳定易变的特征,所以迫切地需要挖掘这类知识,并进行知识共享。保险公司的运行...     

Managing the risks of energy efficiency insurances in a portfolio context: An actuarial diversification approach

To achieve ambitious international climate goals, an increase of energy efficiency investments is necessary and, thus, a growing market potential arises. Concomitantly, the relevance of managing the risk of financing and insuring energy efficiency measures increases continuously. Energy Efficiency Insurances encourage investors by guaranteeing a predefined energy efficiency performance. However, literature on quantitative analysis of pricing and diversification effects of such novel insurance solutions is scarce. This paper provides a first approach for the analysis of diversification potential on three levels: collective risk diversification, cross product line diversification, and financial hedging. Based on an extensive real-world data set for German residential buildings, the analysis reveals that underwriting different Energy Efficiency Insurance types and constructing Markowitz Minimum Variance Portfolios halves overall risk in terms of standard deviation. We evince that Energy Efficiency Insurances can diversify property insurance portfolios and reduce regulatory capital for insurers under Solvency II constraints. Moreover, we show that Energy Efficiency Insurances potentially supersede financial market instruments such as weather derivatives in diversifying property insurance portfolios. In summary, these three levels of diversification effects constitute an additional benefit for the introduction of Energy Efficiency Insurances and may positively impact their market development.     

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN MOTOR INSURANCE IN THAILAND

ABSTRACT: The 1990s saw rapid economic growth in Thailand. Motor insurance grew enormously, becoming the biggest income earner for total general business (both for the whole industry and for many individual companies). Cash flow underwriting seemed to be the recipe for success in a competitive market.
The agency distribution system for motor insurance in Thailand is almost wholly controlled by finance companies and banks, which expect a high rate of commission. Their delay in paying over the premiums to the insurers created bad-debt problems after the 1997 economic crash, when the government closed many of these financing companies. This also meant an end to the motor insurance boom, with a decrease in premium income and a reduction in investment returns and assets, thus threatening solvency margins.
Earlier in the decade, in 1993, there was the introduction of compulsory third-party insurance, followed by the establishment by the government of provincial bureaus to help these third-party claimants. And in 2000, just in time for the next wave of economic growth, a new rating system has been introduced to bring sophistication to the basic process of evaluating and pricing different risks, though still within a government tariff system. Liberalization is coming, in stages, and the industry is making changes so as to be in a fit state to cope with the increased competition and opportunities that this liberalization will bring.
Like all setbacks, the crash of 1997 was an opportunity for Thai motor insurers to examine the fundamentals of their business and plan to increase their professionalism. Some are already well on the way to high-quality service, meeting ISO 9002 standards, and have begun Internet trading.     

Adverse Selection and the Opaqueness of Insurers

While adverse selection problems between insureds and insurers are well known to insurance researchers, few explore adverse selection in the insurance industry from a capital markets perspective. This study examines adverse selection in the quoted prices of insurers' common stocks with a particular focus on the opacity of both asset portfolios and underwriting liabilities. We find that more opaque underwriting lines result in greater adverse selection costs for property-casualty (P-C) insurers. A similar effect is not apparent for life-health (L-H) insurers and we find no effect of asset opaqueness on adverse selection for either L-H or P-C insurers.     

我国产险公司承保亏损原因分析及建议

近年来,我国产险市场保持快速增长,但自2006年起承保效益连续出现大面积亏损,严重影响产险公司偿付能力。本文分析了产险公司承保效益情况,并剖析了造成普遍亏损的原因,认为要扭转产险行业普遍亏损的现状,保险企业要转变经营理念,提升自身经营绩效及经营水平;保险监管部门要在尊重市场规律基础上,推出有效的监管措施,为促进有序竞争提供制度保障。     

预收保费与保险责任承担制度研究

目前,在审理保险人预收保费至保险人承保前发生保险事故的赔偿纠纷案件时,审理法院通常认为：保险人预收保费的事实与保险合同成立没有直接关系,预收保费不能证明保险合同成立,保险人对在预收保费后至承保前发生的保险事故不承担保险责任。大多数国家的保险法根据契约公平原则,规定了暂保险和强制临时保险制度。对预收保费后至承保前发生的保险事故,要求保险人依约定或法定承担保险责任。在我国保险市场已经成为国际保险市场的有效组成部分的今天,应当建立以保险立法和司法方式干预保险责任承担机制,为投保人和被保险人提供法律救济。     

New Risk-Based Capital Standards in the European Union: A Proposal Based on Empirical Data

In response to criticism concerning the current solvency system, the European Commission is developing new rules for insurance companies operating in the member states of the European Union (EU). Under this so-called Solvency II concept, an insurer is allowed to verify its solvency by using an internal risk management model previously approved by the regulatory authority. In this article we develop such an internal risk management approach for property-liability insurers that is based on dynamic financial analysis (DFA). The proposed concept uses a simulation technique and models the central risk factors from the investment and underwriting areas of an insurance company. On the basis of the data provided by a German insurer, the ruin probabilities under different scenarios and varying planning horizons are calculated.     

Underwriting and investment risks in the property-liability insurance industry: evidence prior to the 9–11 event

Underwriting and investment are two important and related business activities of insurance companies. However, studies on the interrelation between underwriting and investment risks of Property-Liability (P-L) insurance companies are sparse in the literature. Using a sample of US P-L insurers, this article conducts an empirical investigation of how these two risks are associated with each other in the 1994–2000 period (before the September 11th terrorist attack in 2001). Our results, robust to various estimations, suggest that there is no significant relationship between the underwriting and investment risks among our sample firms. Such results based on pre 9–11 event period provide some support for the conjecture of Achleitner et al. (Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract 27:275–282, 2002) that many insurance companies may have failed to take an integrated approach to risk management. This resulted in a heavy loss due to dual exposures in both underwriting and investment in the 9–11 event. In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, risk taking and risk management of financial institutions have received more attention and increasing scrutiny. We believe the current paper provides some useful insights in this vein.