市场定价模式对汇率制度选择影响研究述评

汇率制度选择讨论一直以来都是开放宏观经济学的核心.而研究汇率制度选择的角度也是多方面的,但是从定价模式这个角度来探讨最优汇率制度则是近年来的事情.国内外经济学家在这方面倾注了许多努力,获得了丰硕的研究成果.本文以时间为脉络,全过程追溯了定价方式对汇率制度选择的影响以及其最新的拓展方向,本文也对经典文献中的观点作了点评.这些对于我国的汇率政策的制定有着重要的借鉴意义,这也是写作本文的初衷.     

竞争环境下基于顾客离散选择的酒店房间动态定价研究

针对竞争环境下两酒店的动态定价策略问题,首先运用MNL模型来描述顾客在多房间多价位间的选择行为,通过假设实时房间余量是已知信息,得到纳什均衡,并构建了完全信息下的动态定价模型;在此基础上,提出一种启发式插值策略,建立非完全信息下的动态定价模型。最后通过仿真分析表明,非完全信息下启发式插值策略能有效的提升酒店的效益。     

基于随机贴现因子的人民币与新台币汇率定价

基于随机贴现因子定价理论,采用无套利定价法,推导出人民币与新台币的即期汇率与随机贴现因子、远期汇率之间的关系,并利用人民币和新台币的无本金交割远期外汇作为远期汇率,对人民币与新台币的即期汇率进行定价。实证研究结果显示,人民币与新台币的汇率主要受中国大陆地区和台湾地区的股票市场和债券市场波动的影响。用本文模型定价模拟的即期汇率与真实汇率的变动趋势较为一致,这表明本文模型可为人民币与新台币之间的双向直接兑换提供依据,进而有助于建立两岸货币清算机制。     

论证券研究产品的定价机理

文章运用非瓦尔拉斯均衡理论框架分析了静态单周期情形下研究产品的均衡定价机理,以及运用泛函数理论工具研究了动态多周期情形中确定证券研究产品最优定价路径的机理。     

企业融资主体融资行为的博弈分析

投资者和融资企业之间的不完美且不完全信息动态博弈,其结果为精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡,这损害了投资者和融资企业的利益。解决的办法是使博弈转化为完美且完全信息动态博弈。具体措施,一是提高投资者对融资企业类型的甄别能力;二是加大绩差企业伪装成绩优企业的成本。     

中国最优产业结构:理论模型与定量测算

本文通过对生产者和要素供给者的双重优化动机分析,开发出一个能够付诸定量测算的最优名义产出增长率模型。基于该模型对1992—2009年中国最优产业结构的测算结果显示,最优名义产出增长率模型成功地量化了中国经济运行过程中重大事件对实际产业结构偏离最优产业结构程度的影响。该模型所涉及的定量分析指标,能为中国政府在制定和调整产业结构目标、优化资源配置、推动产业结构优化升级方面提供切实可操作的产业政策工具。     

中国最优产业结构:理论模型与定量测算

本文通过对生产者和要素供给者的双重优化动机分析,开发出一个能够付诸定量测算的最优名义产出增长率模型。基于该模型对1992--2009年中国最优产业结构的测算结果显示,最优名义产出增长率模型成功地量化了中国经济运行过程中重大事件对实际产业结构偏离最优产业结构程度的影响。该模型所涉及的定量分析指标,能为中国政府在制定和调整产业结构目标、优化资源配置、推动产业结构优化升级方面提供切实可操作的产业政策工具。     

金融资产定价理论的历史演变

文章着重从金融资产的定价原理角度回顾了金融资产定价理论的发展过程,主要包括资产组合选择理论、资本资产定价模型、套利定价模型、衍生产品定价、行为资产定价和随机折现因子定价等,分析了各种理论之间的承继关系,对理论的下一步发展具有启发意义。     

基于博弈论的网络团购市场定价分析

近年来,网络团购市场以其方便快捷、价廉物美的特点受到越来越多的人们的喜爱。然而,这一现状必将对传统销售业造成冲击。在进行大学生创新活动计划项目的研究过程中产生,运用博弈论完全信息静态博弈中的Hotelling模型分析传统销售商和团购网站的价格竞争,寻找双方均可接受的均衡价格,并结合中国团购市场的现状,为团购网站的发展给出几点建议。     

基于二项式期权定价模型的风险投资最优时机选择研究

针对传统风险投资最优时机选择方法的局限性,分析了风险投资最优时机选择过程中的实物期权特性,在二项式期权定价模型的基础上,对风险投资最优时机选择中采用的净现值法(NPV)进行了修正,构建了一种适用于风险投资项目最优时机选择的决策模型,并利用该模型进行了实例分析。     

Information and housing search: theory and evidence from China market

Asymmetric market information plays a role in households’ housing choice. To study this role, we theoretically and empirically examine the varied behaviours between better-informed and less-informed households in a housing market. The housing search model theoretically predicts that better-informed households are more likely to secure a better deal. With the data from Tianjin in China, hedonic models are calibrated to quantify the impacts of asymmetric information on housing search outcomes. The results show that the less-informed homebuyers need to pay around 1~2.3% more than those better-informed homebuyers after controlling the heterogeneity of housing units, which are consistent with the theoretical predictions. It suggests that policies and institutions to alleviate asymmetric information in housing market could improve the welfare of households.     

行政垄断的形成机制及改革思路研究

对于存在市场失灵的行业,政府对竞争进行限制和排斥;但如果价格规制没有达到效果,则可认为政府规制实际造成了一种不合意的行政垄断的后果。行政垄断的博弈各方都是追求自身利益最大化的行为主体,尤其是政府追求其自身利益导致了行政垄断的产生;行政垄断程度大小受很多因素影响,大致可分为需求因素和供给因素两类。这些因素不但决定了行政垄断程度,而且决定了政企之间的利益分配。电信业改革启示我们,中央政府下一步可以从市场结构、规制改革、反垄断法三个方面破除行政垄断;要彻底根除行政垄断,政治体制改革不可避免。     

投资决策中个人理性与集体理性博弈分析及对策研究

针对近期多起曝光的企业对外投资、担保大案,本文应用博弈论分析方法,在强调个人理性与集体理性矛盾的基础上研究投资决策中两者的完全信息博弈及无限阶段重复博弈,并建立相应的定量分析模型,通过分析博弈参与人均衡行为,指出投资决策中寻租的存在的必然性及巨大危害,并针对性的提出了适合实际操作的对策建议.     

住房空置率对住宅价格的影响分析

住房空置率一直是房地产业所关注的问题,在对住房空置率进行学术界定和对我国现阶段住房空置率实际状况进行分析的基础上,结合交易价格对均衡价格的换算理论,对住房空置率与房地产价格的影响进行量化分析,提出政府可通过完善房地产市场信息披露制度、完善土地供应机制和引导房地产业的投资结构,企业提高开发质量来控制住房空置率。     

我国通货紧缩的原因及治理

通货紧缩是影响当前我国经济走势的一个重要因素。本文从分析近年来我国价格变动的原因入手,从消费需求、投资、出口等几个方面阐述了影响价格走势的因素。对通货紧缩与通货膨胀进行了比较和界定,提出从改善供给质量、刺激消费需求、促进投资需求等几个方面来治理通货紧缩的思路和措施。     

Catalog competition and Nash equilibrium in nonlinear pricing games

We model strategic competition in a market with asymmetric information as a noncooperative game in which each seller competes for a buyer of unknown type by offering the buyer a catalog of products and prices. We call this game a catalog game. Our main objective is to show that catalog games have Nash equilibria. The Nash existence problem for catalog games is particularly contentious due to payoff discontinuities caused by tie-breaking. We make three contributions. First, we establish under very mild conditions on primitives that no matter what the tie-breaking rule, catalog games are uniformly payoff secure, and therefore have mixed extensions which are payoff secure. Second, we show that if the tie-breaking rule awards the sale to firms which value it most (i.e., breaks ties in favor of firms which stand to make the highest profit), then firm profits are reciprocally upper semicontinuous (i.e., the mixed catalog game is reciprocally upper semincontinuous). This in turn implies that the mixed catalog game satisfies Reny’s condition of better-reply security—a condition sufficient for existence (Reny in Econometrica 67:1029–1056, 1999). Third, we show by example that if the tie-breaking rule does not award the sale to firms which value it most (for example, if ties are broken randomly with equal probability), then the catalog game has no Nash equilibrium. This paper was written while the second author was Visiting Professor, Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Universite Paris 1, Pantheon-Sorbonne. The second author thanks CES and Paris 1, and in particular, Bernard Cornet and Cuong Le Van for their support and hospitality. The second author also thanks the C&BA and EFLS at the University of Alabama for financial support. Both authors are grateful to Monique Florenzano and to participants in the April 2006 Paris 1 NSF/NBER Decentralization Conference for many helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. Finally, both authors are especially grateful to an anonymous referee whose thoughtful comments led to substantial improvements in the paper. Monteiro acknowleges the financial support of Capes-Cofecub 468/04.     

转型时期中国种植业“人—畜—机”投入成本贡献率的实证研究

转型时期,中国种植业中的粮食作物与经济作物的人工成本、畜力和农业装备投入贡献率有较大差异。粮食作物生产中机械装备替代畜力和人力的趋势十分明显。推进中国特色农业机械发展和农业剩余劳动力有序合理转移是新阶段农业发展的关键所在。     

Further evidence on the law of factor proportionality in multiple households closed CGE models

This article provides additional evidence that factor contents of different consumers’ consumption bundles computed from multiple households closed Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are approximately proportional. This empirical regularity has been observed up to now for a total of 11 CGEs for very diverse countries, and we therefore state it as law. It implies that these models display price rigidity with respect to endowment re-allocations, an observation which has broad implications for their capacity to capture general equilibrium effects.     

我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的分析

在市场经济中,利率市场化对证券金融市场的改革和发展有着重要而深远的意义。目前,我国利率市场化改革已经进入实质性的攻坚阶段由,由实行利率管制逐步演化到利率市场化。探究我国利率市场化与证券市场动态变迁的实质性关系,阐明我国利率市场化作用于证券市场的机制、改革进程及风险防范,对建构科学、健康、有序的证券市场有借鉴意义。