An Analysis on China＇s Trade Structure and Carbon Emissions

通过投入产出SKYLINE分析法,探讨了中国进出口贸易在国际分工中的二氧化碳排放问题,研究结果显示2007年中国贸易结构在国际分工中具有污染逆差特征。分行业看,净出口二氧化碳排放比例排在前八位的产业部门分别是纺织业、纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业、木材加工及家具制造业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业、金属制品业、工艺品及其他制造业、造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业、电气机械及器材制造业。     

An Analysis of Energy and Environment Efficiency of China’s Iron and Steel Industry

Due to heavy energy consumption and low technical efficiency, China’s iron and steel industry is trapped in the dilemma “large but not strong”. This situation not only exerts enormous pressure on energy security but also on increased carbon emission and environmental pollution. The contribution of this study is to calculate the energy and environment efficiency of China’s iron and steel industry and to analyze the factors affecting this efficiency. An index of energy and environment efficiency is introduced based on Directional Slacks-based Distance Measure Model. This index is adopted to measure the energy and environment efficiency of China’s iron and steel industry using 2,382 firm observations during 2001 to 2005. In addition, Hierarchy Linear Model (HLM) is applied to analyze the factors which can influence the efficiency with both firm-level and province-level data. The conclusions are as follows: The energy and environment efficiency of China’s iron and steel industry did not have a significant change during the research period. A firm’s age, size, ownership, product category and the economy of its province have significant influence on its energy and environment efficiency.     

How Green is China＇s Path of Catching Up？ An International Comparative Evaluation

China＇s rise as a global economic power in recent decades has been achieved with tremendous environmental costs. Has China been an abnormally heavier polluter in its development path？ How has pollution accounted for China＇s hyper economic growth？ This study answers these questions by evaluating the environmental effects of China＇s growth using a data set of 61 countries over a period of four decades. The analysis is focused on two pollutant emissions： CO2 emissions, which carry global externalities, and particulate emissions, of which the environmental cost is more domestic. A fractional polynomial （FP） regression model is estimated to project emissions levels per worker based on lagged values of per capita GDP and other variables. It reveals that China＇s CO2 emissions have been higher than the projection for most years with an average margin of over 5.3% while its particulate emissions have exceeded projection by an average margin of more than 7.5%. The excessive emissions levels of both pollutants confirm the severity of China＇s environmental challenges and indicate great potential for the economy to work for a greener growth pattern. On the other hand, contributions of emissions to multi-factor productivity （MFP） growth are estimated by FP regressions based on a human-capital augmented growth model. The results show opposing trends of CO2 and particulates in their ＂contributions＂ to GDP growth, which imply asymmetric incentives to abate the two types of pollution. These findings have important implications for China＇s environmental policy making.     

The Empirical Analysis of China＇ s Monetary Policy Effectuality on Price Stability

2009年以来,面对持续走高的物价,央行采取了连续上调准备金率的政策,以求减少货币供给量,稳定物价。通过建立CPI、广义货币供给量M2和GDP之间的回归模型,对1994～2010年的数据进行回归分析,得出了我国货币政策对稳定物价有效的结论。认为治理通货膨胀要采取多样化的宏观经济政策,注意货币政策、财政政策的搭配使用。同时要加快人民币汇率体制改革,促进产业结构调整和经济发展方式的转变。     

Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate

Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.     

Study：on the Eco-Agriculture Regionalization based on Hierarchical Cluster Analysis in Northeast China＇

农业系统是一个开放的、具有耗散结构的生态-经济-社会三维复合系统,发展农业生产必须因地制宜,为此需要进行农业区域划分。文章在确立生态农业区划原则、明确分区依据的基础上,建立了东北地区生态农业区域划分指标体系,运用层次聚类分析法把整个东北地区分为6个大生态农业区、14个二级生态区。东北地区作为我国具有战略意义的商品粮基地,充分发挥地域生态优势,是把它建成我国粮食安全基地与绿色农畜产品基地的必然趋势。     

Impact of asset price fluctuation on China’s monetary policy: An empirical analysis based on quarterly data, 1994–2006

The strenuous fluctuation in global asset price in recent years has had a profound impact on the economic and social development of every country. An empirical analysis indicates that asset prices (the stock price index and real estate prices) are important endogenous variables affecting the interest rate reaction function of central bank monetary policy. With expected inflation as a given, each one percentage point rise in output gap will cause a 0.79 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank and each one percentage point rise in real estate price will result in a 2.2 percentage point rise in interest rates. The stock price index does have an influence on the trends in monetary policy, but it is less salient than the impact of housing prices. We also show that monetary policy that employs asset price as an endogenous variable increases the central bank’s control in seeking to attain its objectives. Therefore we suggest that the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China’s markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.     

A ＂Paradox＂ in China＇s Environmental Management： An Argument From a Comparative Study on Waste Recycling Policies Between China and Japan

China appears to have a ＂paradox＂ in its environmental management policies. For example, China＇s recycling policies appear paradoxical. With its rapidly expanding economy, China is now the world＇s largest emitter of urban waste. Under such a situation, China is aiming to build up a recycling economy by enacting a number of related laws. Despite the development of waste recycling regulations, however, the load on the environment by continuously increasing waste has not reduced in China so far. What explains this seemingly paradoxical situation of waste recycling in China？ It has been pointed out in the previous study on China＇s climate change policies that environment protection falls under the rubric of sustainable development in China. The question here is whether the same story can be applied to areas other than climate change in China＇s environmental management. This paper examines it in the area of its waste recycling policy. This paper conducts an evaluation of waste recycling regulations in China by comparing it with the experience of Japan, China＇s next-door advanced country. It concludes that the waste recycling regulations in China do not primarily aim at reducing the environmental load by reducing the amount of waste but rather for the main purpose of recycling and reusing resources effectively for the sake of economic development.     

Study on the measurement of China’s financial intermediation ratio in terms of stock: 1992–2006

In terms of China’s financial intermediation ratio (FIMR) in stock, we make a thorough empirical study on the change of the ratios during 1992–2006. We find that: The monopoly position of bank credit in the financing channel of non-financial sector is weakened, but bank credit is still the most important financing channel for non-financial sector. There is a structure change in the financing channel of government sector and its FIMR is increasing. Though the scale of non-banking financial institutions underwent rapid development during 1992–2006, their role in social financing cannot be evenly matched with banking system. It is the change of various economy behaviors that induce the changes of FIMR in China.     

A Dynamic Analysis on the Level of New-type Industrialization in China＇ s Western Region From the Angle of Western Region Development Program

通过构建区域新型工业化评价指标体系,运用多指标综合评价方法,对西部地区新型工业化水平进行测算和分析,并与其他区域进行多角度动态比较,结果显示：西部大开发战略实施以来西部地区新型工业化取得显著进展,但区域内省际分异较明显;新型工业化总水平以及工业化进程、科技创新、资源环境、社会协调发展水平均落后于其他区域且差距并未明显缩小甚至趋于扩大,而经济效益水平持续提升已居各区域之首。最后针对西部地区薄弱环节提出促进新型工业化的政策建议。     

The Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Foreign Exchange Reserves on China＇ s Price Level --Based on the Cointegration Test and the Error Correction Model analysis

协整和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,我国外汇储备与物价水平存在协整关系,且外汇储备是物价水平的格兰杰原因,表明外汇储备增加将对通货膨胀形成压力。但从误差修正模型的检验结果看,我国外汇储备对物价水平的影响在短期内较为有限,其主要原因是我国央行短期内进行大量的外汇冲销操作。因此,我国需要采取有效的措施来缓解通胀压力,如加大央行公开市场业务操作、改革外汇管理体制、适当放宽汇率浮动幅度以及合理使用我国现有外汇储备等。     

An Investigation into the Positive Effect of an Educated Wife on Her Husband’s Earnings: The Case of Japan in the Period between 2000 and 2003

We analyze the effect of a wife??s human capital on her husband??s earnings, using individual-level data for Japan in the period 2000?C2003. We find a positive association between a wife??s education and her husband??s earnings, which can be attributed to the assortative mating effect as well as the positive effect of an educated wife on her husband??s productivity. We divide the sample into those couples with non-working wives and those with working wives, and also employ an estimation strategy proposed by Jepsen (Review of Economics of the Household 3:197?C214, 2005), attempting to control for the assortative mating effect. Our regression analysis provides suggestive evidence that educated wives increase their husbands?? productivity and earnings only when they are non-workers and have sufficient time to support their husbands.     

Dynamic Adjustment of Asset - liability Ratio of Manufacturing Listed Companies in China ：An Aanlysis based on Partial Adjustment Model and Dynamic Panel Data

从动态角度研究了我国制造业上市公司的资产负债率调整行为,对我国285家制造业上市公司在2001-2008年样本区间内的动态面板数据模型进行了系统GMM估计。结果表明,我国制造业上市公司的资产流动性、非负债类税盾、成长性和净利润率与资产负债率显著负相关,而公司规模和资产结构与资产负债率显著正相关,宏观经济状况的变化也对我国制造业上市公司的资产负债率有显著影响;相比静态模型,动态模型具有更强的解释能力,我国制造业上市公司资产负债率向其目标最优值是调整动态的。