Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects

We examine significant volatility shifts in regional housing price changes, adapting a method of Haugen, Talmor and Torous (1991) independent of predefined sampling blocks. We identify 36 volatility events, most of which are purely regional, but three of which are national. We find significant associations of volatility events and economic conditions, especially national and regional income growth, inflation, and interest rates. During an initial adjustment period after a volatility shift, realized housing returns move opposite to volatility. We find evidence of significant interregional diffusion of volatility increases, but not of decreases. New insights on links between economic conditions and housing volatility and returns should be of value to household investors and mortgage investors.     

Clientele Effects on the Demand For Housing Price Appreciation

If house buyers are segmented by income, one might expect to observe buyers in such markets valuing the benefits of expected capital gain differently. Presumably, individuals experiencing higher marginal tax rates should be inclined to pay relatively more for anticipated capital gain since the opportunities of sheltering such income from taxation are greater. This paper attempts to identify a proxy for expected capital gain by using the hedonic price methodology to predict a recent price series for each housing unit in a sample of sales. That proxy is then used to determine an individual buyer's marginal willingness to pay for anticipated price appreciation. The results indicate that one cannot reject the joint hypothesis that homebuyers naively extrapolate from prior implied price performance to establish future price expectations and the variation in willingness to pay for that expectation may be a function of the buyer's income. This suggests the existence in housing markets of a phenomenon termed the clientele effect. This effect has been the subject of considerable examination in the finance literature.     

Variation Across Price Segments and Locations: A Comprehensive Quantile Regression Analysis of the Sydney Housing Market

Standard house price indices measure average movements of average houses in average locations belonging to an average price segment and hence obscure spatial and cross‐sectional variation of price appreciation rates even within a single metropolitan area. This article combines penalized quantile regression techniques with the hedonic imputation approach to reveal such kind of variation. The method is applied to house transactions from Sydney between 2001 and 2014. The analysis finds significant variation across sub‐markets over time and in particular during the boom‐and‐bust cycle peaking in 2004. Appreciation rates were highest for suburban, low‐priced and lowest for inner‐city, high‐priced houses.     

住宅消费公平价格与商品住宅性能认定

本通过对影响住宅消费公平价格形成的因素进行分析，并联系商品住宅性能认定制度，阐述了四类因素对住宅消费公平价格形成的影响和与性能认定的联系。对性能认定中存在的问题提出了建议。     

Price Strategies for Idiosyncratic Goods—The Case of Housing

We determine the mechanism that a rational, profit-maximizing seller would use to revise his reservation price for a heterogeneous or infrequently exchanged good. For instance, while one dimension of a home's quality may be easily determined in competitive markets (e.g., the valuation of floor size, location, etc.), other dimensions of quality may be idiosyncratic (unit specific) and unobservable by the seller (e.g., aesthetics of the home). Here, a seller of a new or infrequently exchanged housing unit may use sales success information to revise his expectation of the unit's market-determined value and hence revise his reservation price. The rational seller will, upon arrival of the first buyer inspecting the unit, determine a sequence of reservation prices for this and expected subsequent buyers. This price sequence falls for subsequent buyers and starts from a lower initial price if the first buyer arrives later than expected. Through this mechanism, we offer an explanation for price dispersion and vacancy durations in housing markets. While we explicitly model the real estate market here, this price revision mechanism is also applicable to rental markets, labor markets, used car markets, and other markets characterized by heterogeneity and infrequent sales.     

Housing Price Forecastability: A Factor Analysis

We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS) and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out‐of‐sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price–rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks and regression models based on small datasets.     

Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation

This paper reports on research in which eleven alternative housing price indices are constructed for two Vancouver neighbourhoods for the period from 1957 to 1979. Three criteria for good indices are presented, and the eleven indices, as well as several government and industry indices are evaluated in accordance with those criteria. It is determined that, almost surprisingly, an index based on mean sales values performs well, as do several of the hedonic price equation based indices. Several policy implications of the analysis are then discussed.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大.商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响.本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策.     

保障性住房融资中运用REITs的探讨

目前我国保障性住房面临着资金瓶颈问题,这是制约保障性住房供给的重要因素之一,借鉴房地产投资信托基金(REITs)有助于解决这一问题.文章借鉴中国香港、美国和新加坡等国家的REITs运作经验,探讨了在我国保障性住房建设中运用REITs的可能性和条件,以及运作模式.在此基础上分析了在我国金融和房地产市场现状下发展保障性住房REITs存在的问题,提出了相应的对策.     

Housing Price Indexes from the 1974–1983 SIMSA Annual Housing Surveys

This paper reports residential real estate price indexes computed from the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) Annual Housing Survey (AHS) for the 1974 through 1983 period. During this ten-year period, the U.S. Bureau of the Census conducted detailed surveys of the housing stock in sixty metropolitan areas in a three to four year cycle. This information is used to compute tenure specific hedonic housing price indexes for: (1) the entire metropolitan housing market; (2) separately for properties located in the central city and in the suburbs (whenever central city locations are identified); and (3) for three points in the dwelling quality distribution-for substandard housing (using the definition employed by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development), for new housing (housing less than three years old and not substandard), and for existing standard quality housing (everything else). In addition, the hedonic prices reported here are adjusted for the finite sample bias introduced when taking the exponential of a lognormally distributed random variable.     

Housing Supply,Land Costs and Price Adjustment

We analyze relationships between housing supply elasticities, land costs and house price dynamics, contributing three main insights. First, higher housing supply elasticities help contain short‐run price spikes following demand shocks. Second, land price dynamics influence this relationship; supply responses are lessened and house price spikes are exacerbated as land prices increase. Third, we estimate a system of regional equations modeling housing supply using a Tobin's‐q specification (incorporating construction and land costs) and show that regional price dynamics are a function of the region's supply elasticity.     

Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market

This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short‐term speculation can be identified. In the cross‐section of housing projects, a 10‐percentage‐point increase in trading activity following a strong short‐run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short‐term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short‐term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.     

Housing Renovations and the Quantile Repeat-Sales Price Index

A median-based quantile estimator suffers less bias from positive outliers, such as unobserved renovations, than a standard mean-based estimator. Quantile repeat-sales estimates for single-family homes in the city of Chicago show nominal price appreciation of 68.9% between 1993 and 2002, substantially smaller than the standard approach's estimate of 77.8%. Omitting observations with building permits reduces the mean and median-based estimates by 4.4 and 1.6 percentage points. The results imply that quality improvements account for much of the rapid rise in house prices, and that a median-based quantile estimator produces a more accurate view of the price performance of a typical house.     

Contigent Price Contracts and the Efficiency of Housing Markets

Frequently, the response of housing markets to a large negative demand shock is a period during which the liquidity of housing declines, but the price at which transactions take place changes little. In this paper we show that a decline in liquidity can result from the inabilities of sellers and buyers to insure against post-shock price uncertainty. We conclude, that the introduction of a risk-sharing contingent price contract may increase the post-shock liquidity of housing by providing insurance against post-shock price uncertainty. Finally, we show that a mutually agreeable contingent price contract will always exist, even when sellers are excessively optimistic.     

Effects of Housing Codes on Local Housing Markets

Housing codes are typically instituted in order to raise the average level of housing quality in a community. However, in doing so, the institution of a housing code likely has effects on other housing characteristics. Using data from municipalities in North Carolina, this study finds that municipalities with housing codes have higher average occupancy densities among all households and lower homeownership rates among low-income households, but housing codes have no statistically discernible effect on housing values and expenditures. The results suggest that housing codes are not costless; most importantly, codes force consumers to trade housing quantity for quality.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices

Parametric specifications for hedonic price equations are estimated using a data set from Alameda and San Francisco Counties and are compared to estimates using a nonparametric technique called locally weighted regression, LWR. LWR permits flexible estimation of the hedonic's curvature at median attributes and is less sensitive than standard regression techniques to the influence of unusual observations. The technique also avoids imposing a single functional form across time and municipalities. The LWR estimates of municipality-specific hedonics are then used to obtain implicit prices for housing attributes and to derive municipality-specific price indices. The results of extensive diagnostic checks of our technique are also reported.     

Imperfect Information and Investor Inferences From Housing Price Dynamics

We examine characteristics of housing price dynamics that may be consistent with rational learning and not simply irrational feedback trading. We find significant patterns of temporal and spatial diffusion that are more amenable to explanations that allow for rational components. First, we execute our tests not simply on housing price changes, but on town-by-town differentials from regional average price changes. Second, we find significant relationships with own and neighboring town differentials, but not with control groups of non-neighboring towns. Third, we find that population density, a proxy for scale economies in information production, accelerates the diffusion process. Test were performed on quarterly data for large samples from Connecticut and the San Francisco area, employing method of moments estimators.     

Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility

This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia from 1979–1991. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.     

Market Conditions and Housing Choices: A Comparison of Homeownership Across Three Decades

This article uses information on out‐of‐pocket housing cost and house price appreciation along with the geo‐coded version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to consider the differences in the impact of these and other variables on the tenure choices of sample households across three time periods, the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. Specifically, an extended continuous time probability model is used to examine households' transitions from renting to owning and subsequent possible transitions either back to rental tenure or to another owned home during our three observation periods. Coefficient estimates show that financial variables such as house price appreciation and out‐of‐pocket housing cost play an important role in determining all the transitions. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the interesting result that the cumulative likelihoods of homeownership derived from the model are consistently lower than the probabilities of an initial transition to homeownership from rental tenure during the observation period. Finally, the magnitude and timing of the impact on homeownership of a policy experiment that eliminates the mortgage interest deduction are shown to differ substantially across the three decades.     

基于FAHP的公租房融资模式选择研究

基于公租房融资现状,结合模糊综合层次分析法(FAHP)构建融资模式选择评价模型。融资主体主要分为政府主导融资、政企合作融资、企业主导融资三类,通过融资主体评价指标确定相应融资主体。在政企合作融资主体类型下构建以运营机制、融资效率、追索权为主要指标的评价体系,结合各指标的影响因子,由下而上将隶属度最高的确定为最佳融资模式。最后以河南省遂平县某拟建公租房为例进行评价,为公租房融资模式的选择提供一定的借鉴。