Consumer Preferences in Housing Market Analysis: An Application of Multidimensional Scaling Techniques

The value of single–family housing is a function of demographic, economic and psychographic variables. Much work has been done on the objectively measurable criteria, but virtually none on the subjective, perceptual criteria. This study uses consumer-supplied similarity measures of housing alternatives to develop a multidimensional perceptual "map" of the way consumers view housing choices. The dimensions of this perceptual space represent the evaluative criteria utilized, consciously or unconsciously, during the housing evaluation process. The analysis, although exploratory in nature, suggests that all perceptually defined market segments use the same evaluative construct; that market segments may be defined in terms of differences in the relative importance of each criterion; that market segments do not necessarily correspond to simple demographic measures; and that the major evaluative criteria in the perceptual process generally agree with those found in the literature based on objective measurements.     

An Empirical Examination of the Stability of Housing Price Equations Over Time

This study investigates the extent to which the coefficients of housing price equations are stable over time. Using annual data from 1959 to 1979 for a large neighbourhood in Vancouver, British Columbia, a series of twenty-four housing price equations is estimated. The estimated coefficients exhibit substantial instability over the period. Further, prediction errors are generally minimized for a given year when the coefficients estimated for that year are used to predict. The results strongly suggest that such equations should be recalibrated each year.     

Modeling Housing Market Fundamentals: Empirical Evidence of Extreme Market Conditions

This article examines the issues encountered in the modeling of market fundamentals during a period of extreme price behavior. The study analyzes the price behavior of the residential property market in Ireland using a number of alternative methodological approaches in the estimation of fundamental market value. Limitations in conventional models such as an inverted demand model are highlighted, in particular, with regard to diagnostic concerns and the static nature of the model. The use of an error correction framework provides more consistent and robust findings. The analysis does appear to indicate that a substantial premium over fundamental values developed in the Irish market during the late 1990s, reaching a peak in 1999 and 2000. However, in recent years, prices have largely been in line with fundamentals.     

Effects of Housing Codes on Local Housing Markets

Housing codes are typically instituted in order to raise the average level of housing quality in a community. However, in doing so, the institution of a housing code likely has effects on other housing characteristics. Using data from municipalities in North Carolina, this study finds that municipalities with housing codes have higher average occupancy densities among all households and lower homeownership rates among low-income households, but housing codes have no statistically discernible effect on housing values and expenditures. The results suggest that housing codes are not costless; most importantly, codes force consumers to trade housing quantity for quality.     

Housing-Market Segmentation and Demand for Housing Attributes: Some Empirical Findings

In this paper, we have empirically estimated demand equations for housing attributes, using a two-step approach in conformity with the procedure proposed by Sherwin Rosen. The identification problem inherent in Rosen's procedure has been avoided by estimating separate equations for distinct market segments in the first step. The estimates of the demand functions obtained in the second step are consistent with theoretical expectations.     

Impact Fees and the Price of New Housing: An Empirical Study

Development exactions in the form of impact fees are being used increasingly by local governments to fund the cost of providing public services necessitated by growth and development. This paper presents the results of an empirical study designed to ascertain the extent to which impact fees are capitalized into the price of new, single-family dwellings. On June 3, 1974, the city of Dunedin, located in Pinellas County, Florida, began assessing impact fees of $1,150 against all new, single-family construction. Using data on 5,839 new home sales in Dunedin and three other cities in Pinellas County from 1971–1982, it was found that builders were able to pass forward the total cost of impact fees to new home buyers. However, the price differential due to impact fees for new dwellings in Dunedin compared to the price of new dwellings in the other three cities disappeared after approximately six years. This is explained by the nature of the fee structure in Dunedin, adjustments in factor costs, increases in the price of housing in competing cities, and unrealized expectations regarding the benefits to be provided by impact fee collections.     

List Prices,Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade‐off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller's reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of numerical sensitivity tests, where we show that the greater the variance of the distribution of buyers’ potential offers, the greater is the ratio of the list price to expected sales price. Thus, sellers of atypical goods will tend to set a relatively high list price compared with standard goods. We test this hypothesis using data from the Columbus, Ohio, housing market and find substantial support. We also find empirical support for another hypothesis of the model: atypical dwellings take longer to sell.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

亚洲金融危机后中国股市与世界股市的波动溢出效应研究

本文选取1999年1月4日—2006年10月30日的上海综合指数、深圳综合指数、香港恒生指数、美国标普指数、伦敦指数和日经指数六大指数的周数据,利用协整和格兰杰因果检验进行分析。结果显示:亚洲金融危机后上海和深圳股市受到香港、美国、英国和日本股市的显著影响;高阶滞后后,上海股市对深圳股市具有显著影响;上海和深圳股市除对国内的香港股市具有显著影响外,还对英国和东京股市都有显著的影响,这说明中国大陆股市对世界股市从以前的依附、跟从变动关系发展到了今天的相互作用关系。     

An Approach to Industrial Real Estate Market Segmentation and Valuation Using the Arbitrage Pricing Paradigm

This paper investigates whether a segmented market exists for industrial real estate with respect to risk and return characteristics. Given the existence of industrial market segmentation, the next issue examined is whether a submarket perspective or an integrated real estate market orientation provides better rate of return estimates for individual industrial properties using an Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) framework. The results support the existence of regional markets for industrial real estate. A submarket orientation rather than an integrated perspective is also found more appropriate in predicting returns on industrial real estate.     

Rolling Out New Products Across Country Markets: An Empirical Study of Causes of Delays

Faced with the challenge of launching a new product into numerous countries, managers may view a sequential rollout as the prudent course of action. Rather than launching the product simultaneously in diverse countries, they may believe they can reduce risk by launching first in one or two countries, and then in others. However, this strategy overlooks the interplay between timeliness in international new product rollouts (INPR) and product success. George M. Chryssochoidis and Veronica Wong explore these issues in a study of 30 high-tech products launched into multiple European markets. Their study has three objectives: examining the incidence of timeliness and delays in simultaneous and sequential INPR; exploring the causes of delays in INPR; and assessing the effects that INPR timeliness and delays have on new product outcomes. They define timeliness in INPR as the availability of the new product to the firm's multiple target markets within the time frame planned by the company's managers. In other words, timeliness in this study reflects a company's capability for adhering to the schedule that management has established. Contrary to expectations, the results of this study do not reveal direct effects on timeliness in INPR from such sources as diversity of target markets or the firm's external environment. These results suggest that firms can achieve on-time, multicountry rollout of new products notwithstanding the legal, technological, and competitive environment. For the firms in this study, timeliness in INPR depends on such factors as sufficiency of marketing and technological resources (for example, to train sales staff, provide after-sales service, and adapt the product for multiple markets), proficiency in executing new product development activities, and effective communication between a company's headquarters and its business units and customers in different countries. Among the 22 product launches categorized as sequential rollouts in this study, 15 experienced delays. All eight of the simultaneous launches were timely. The results of this study indicate a positive relationship between timeliness in INPR and new-product success. Conversely, for the firms in this study, delays in INPR resulted in lower-than-expected product sales and profitability. In other words, the seemingly less risky sequential launch strategy may actually increase the risk of new product failure by delaying product rollout in multiple markets.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Housing Decisions of Older Homeowners

This paper examines the effects of finanacial, demographic and housing variables on older homeowners' propensity to make a variety of housing changes. Pooled cross-sectional data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used in a multinomial logit framework. The results indicate that demographic factors are much more important than financial factors in explaining housing changes by older homeowners.     

The Demand for Housing Additions: An Empirical Analysis

Little is known of a household's decision to make a housing addition despite the large and growing size of these expenditures. This paper examines this decision in a two-step empirical process: first, those factors that influence the probability of a housing addition are determined, and second, the value of the addition made is analyzed. Preliminary results indicate that unmet housing consumption needs, but not the investment potential of housing additions, have a significant impact on both the probability of an addition and the value of an addition made. Furthermore, ceteris paribus, non-white households have a greater probability of making a housing addition, and on average, spend more on housing additions than do white households.     

Postgraduate Education and Labor Market Outcomes: An Empirical Analysis Using Micro Data from Japan

Using a large micro dataset from Japan, this paper provides evidence on the relationship between postgraduate education and labor‐market outcomes. According to the analysis, the key findings include: (1) The employment‐to‐population rates of females and elderly people with postgraduate educations are higher than those with undergraduate educations. (2) The postgraduate wage premium relative to undergraduates is approximately 30–40 percent, which is similar in magnitude for male and female workers. (3) The wage reduction after age 60 is less for workers with a postgraduate education. (4) The private rate of return to postgraduate education exceeds 10 percent.     

中国要素市场扭曲的产业效率损失——基于DEA方法的实证分析

本文以1999-2005年全国30个省（市、区）的制造业为样本，运用DEA方法对要素市场扭曲导致的技术效率损失进行了实证分析。结论如下：①在考察期内，产业组合的技术效率存在着不同程度的损失现象。如果消除产业组合的技术非效率．则可以使全国制造业总产出提高近30个百分点。②各省（市、区）的产业技术效率呈现出明显的梯度特征，即东部地区高于中部地区，而中部地区又高于西部地区。③如果消除要素市场扭曲对技术效率损失的影响．则在投入保持不变的条件下．可以使全国制造业总产出至少可以提高11％。     

Forecasting Using Long-Order Autoregressive Processes: An Example Using Housing Starts

A long autoregressive (AR) modeling procedure for monthly U.S. housing starts data is considered. Neither differencing to remove the trend, nor differencing to remove the seasonal component is required in this method. The model is fitted by a Householder transformation-Akaike AIC criterion algorithm. Forecast performance is compared to that obtained by the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. The prediction error variance of the long AR model method tends to be smaller than the prediction error variance of the Box-Jenkins model method. The long AR method is well suited for housing market time-series which are characterized by both strong seasonal and slowly changing trend components.     

企业利益相关者问题的实证研究

作者对企业不同经营目标所涉及的利益相关者的重要性及影响程度进行了排序研究．对企业在不同规模及经营目标情况下利益相关者的重要性的差异进行了系统的实证研究。研究发现．企业在追求不同经营目标时．它的利益相关者的重要性程度是不一样的：不同规模企业的利益相关者重要性是有差异的。本研究有利于不同规模企业以及相同规模企业在追求不同经营目标时能准确把握和重要关键利益相关者的关系定位。将为企业更好的平衡各利益相关者的和益．提高各利益相关者的满意度和企业综合竞争能力提供有用的理论根据。     

The Effects of Working Time, Segmentation and Labour Market Mobility on Wages and Pensions in Ireland

Most research on pay and benefit differences between full– and part–time work focuses on characteristics of part–time workers and part–time jobs. However, part–time jobs are more open to labour market 'outsiders', and such labour market mobility can influence wages. We analyse the effects of working time, gender, segmentation and mobility on wages and pension benefits in Ireland. Both segmentation and mobility influence wages directly, and controlling for segmentation in a wage model eliminates the negative effect of part–time working. The wage effects of labour market mobility differ by gender and labour market segment. Pension entitlement is strongly influenced by gender, working time, labour market segment and mobility.