The Risk Balls Game: Transforming Risk and Insurance Into Tangible Concepts

The Risk Balls game is used as a game in an introductory insurance course to demonstrate in a tangible way the notion of risk and its relationship to insurance. Through playing with the ``risk balls,' each one representing a different type of risk, the students experience feelings of anxiety about risk, and later, the sense of anxiety reduction when they transfer the risk balls to insurers. The game incorporates complex concepts of risk transfer and risk reduction via pooling and sharing of risk. The mathematical implications of the law of large numbers are physically felt in the classroom when the students experience the relief associated with transferring the risk balls to insurers. The discussion that ensues during the game includes aspects of the underwriting process; moral hazard; adverse selection; the role of agents, insurers, and regulators; and the nature of the insurance contract. The game of risk balls stimulates lively group discussions and provides hands-on experience with risks such as premature death risk or fire risk and the fears associated with them.     

从博弈论视角看商业银行在房地产业贷款中的风险

我国目前的房地产价格的持续走高已经与消费能力的提高渐渐脱节,银行信贷巨资的支持是不少城市出现这股热潮的重要原因.一方面银行的信贷巨资支撑了我国房地产市场的非理性繁荣,另一方面商业银行在房地产泡沫中的风险也在不断集聚.在房地产开发企业向商业银行申请贷款时,由于信息的不对称而产生了两者之间的不完全信息静态博弈.     

Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance

Arguing that a relatively high cost of deposit insurance indicatesthat a bank takes excessive risks, this article estimates thecost of deposit insurance for a large sample of banks in 14economies to assess the relationship between the risk-takingbehavior of banks and their corporate governance structure.The results suggest that banks with concentrated ownership tendto take the greatest risks, and those with dispersed ownershipengage in a relatively low level of risk taking. Moreover, asa proxy for bank risk, the cost of deposit insurance has somepower in predicting bank distress.     

保险与企业风险管理

企业在日常生产经营活动中会遇到各种风险,开展和加强风险管理已成为维护企业生存与发展必不可少的工作,同时也是现代企业管理的一项重要内容,企业风险管理必须从认识风险、选择风险管理方法入手,其中,保险已成为企业开展风险管理的一项重要管理手段。企业必须正确地运用保险为自己的管理服务,同时,保险也要在企业管理中不断创新和发展。     

Risk Mutualization and Competition in Insurance Markets

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of mutual firms on competition in the insurance market. We distinguish two actors in this market: mutual firms, which belong to their pooled members, and traditional companies, which belong to their shareholders. Our approach differs from the literature by one crucial assumption: the expected utility of the consumers depends on the size of their insurance firm, which generates network externalities in this market. Thus, the choice of a contract results in a trade-off between the premium level and the probability of that premium being ex-post adjusted. The optimal contract offered by a mutual firm involves a systematic ex-post adjustment (negative or positive), while the contracts a company offers imply a fixed premium that is possibly negatively adjusted at the end of the contractual period. In an oligopoly game, we show that three types of configurations are possible at equilibrium: either one mutual firm or insurance company is active, or a mixed structure emerges in which two or more companies share the market with or without a mutual firm.     

Reducing Risk Through Pooling and Selective Reinsurance Using Simulated Annealing: An Example from Crop Insurance

Agricultural insurance is often faced with the challenge of systemic risk, arising from weather risks that tend to be correlated within a specific region in extreme situations, resulting in large crop losses within the region. However, across many regions, especially if regions are considerable distances apart, weather may be quite different and losses may be much less correlated. The objective of this paper is to improve the diversification of a crop insurance portfolio, through developing a new alternative risk management approach (Model 3) that pools crop risks across all provinces in a country to form a Canada-wide joint insurance pool. This is in contrast to the current approach used in Canada, where crop risks are pooled only within an individual province. Then using a simulated annealing optimization approach, the most suitable combination of the 150 crop types in the portfolio is identified for either retaining in the joint insurance pool or for ceding to reinsurers, such that the variance of the loss coverage ratio of the portfolio is minimized. This model overcomes the problem of insufficient diversification that makes pooling of systemic weather risk challenging. It achieves diversification at a lower cost by using a more efficient combination of pooling and selective reinsurance, resulting in overall higher surplus, higher survival probability, and lower deficit at ruin.     

战战兢兢话风险

什么东西让注册会计师躲也躲不掉？什么东西让注册会计师忘也忘不了？什么东西总在被注册会计师力图释放？什么东西最终使注册会计师落魄失魂？什么东西来时忽如“沙尘暴”？什么东西退后又成“艳阳天”？什么东西无翼而飞、无足而走？什么东西强可使杀、弱可使活？什么东西能让行业体验失败与魅力的交响？什么东西又让公众萌发唏嘘与释怀的喟叹……这就是风险，风险，风险！注册会计师承接或保留客户，自然要评估风险：客户的所有权结构是否集中，所有者之间是否存在重大争议；所处行业的景气度如何，行业的总趋势是否发生不良变化; 经营场…     

Equity Risk, Conversion Risk, and the Demand for Insurance

Existing insurance theory fails when applied to real property because it does not account for variations in the economic environment. The article studies optimal property insurance in the presence of two sources of variation: equity risk and conversion risk. Equity risk is randomness of the value of a property. It tends to raise demand for conventional insurance. In contrast, conversion risk is randomness in the value the property would have if, after severe damage, it were converted to the highest‐valued use. It is distinct from equity risk because the highest‐valued use is typically not the current one. Under independent conversion risk, the optimum upper limit is a compromise among underlying conversion thresholds. Absent independence, the optimum can be quite different. Conversion risk can raise or lower the demand for property insurance. Insurance contracts that fail to address conversion tend to undermine the orderly disposition of obligations and reduce the gains from reallocation of risks through insurance.     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...     

保险业务结构的同质化对财险业系统性风险的影响

本文在保险业务结构的基础上考虑了保险业务的相关性,提出了保险业务结构同质化的概念,并由此建立了保险业务结构与系统性风险的理论模型.理论推导认为,保险业务结构同质化程度较高的保险市场具有较高的系统性风险.进而,以财险业为研究对象,基于实务数据衡量了不同样本年保险业务结构的同质化程度,整体上具有震荡下行的微弱趋势.然后进行...     

保险金信托的风险分析及改进路径

保险金信托作为一种创新性的理财产品,结合保险和信托的制度优势,降低了投资风险,丰富了投资者的选择,拓宽了金融机构的业务渠道,为我国金融市场的发展注入了新鲜的血液。鉴于其作为一种新的金融创新产品,法律地位尚不明确,监管机构未跟进,操作模式尚未进行规范,致使投资者依然处于观望状态,给保险金信托的发展造成了负面影响。本文通过对现有市场上的保险金信托进行法律解构,分析其相应的法律关系及法律风险,并从多个角度提出可能的改进路径。     

保证保险的法律问题与风险防控

保证保险是借款人作为投保人,向保险公司购买保险,由债权人作为被保险人并在债务人违约的情况下享有保险利益的保险品种.保证保险具有保障贷款安全的功能,是银行个人汽车消费贷款、个人综合消费贷款、个人住房贷款等个人信贷业务保障措施之一.     

存款保险、最后贷款人与风险处置

本文从维护区域金融稳定的现实需求出发,通过理论模型分析某个银行机构产生金融风险时,存款保险基金和最后贷款人对其进行救助或处置与否的最优选择和条件,分析比较了不同情形下的中央银行救助或处置策略,为发挥好存款保险和最后贷款人职能作用、共同防控区域金融风险提供参考。