对当前我国住房市场结构性问题的思考——基于北京市住房市场的实证分析

研究住宅市场供求关系的失衡以及特征、成因和根源,是解决住宅市场结构性问题的关键。解决住房市场绐构性问题,要调整好三个比例关系:保障类住房建设和商品房建设之间的比例关系;经济适用房建设与廉租房建设之间的比例关系;经济适用房建设和消费中"租"与"借"的比例关系。     

利益相关者视角下我国保险公司独立董事制度有效性研究

建立独立董事制度是完善我国保险公司治理结构的重要举措之一,对维护保险机构、保险消费者和中小股东的合法权益具有重要意义。现有文献对一般上市公司独立董事制度有效性的研究较多,但保险公司在资本结构、经营模式等方面具有诸多特殊性,所以有必要对保险公司独立董事制度有效性进行专门研究。本文基于我国47家股份制保险公司2016~2018年的数据,实证检验了保险公司独立董事占比及其背景特征对公司盈利能力、偿付能力水平的影响。研究发现,独立董事占比与盈利能力呈U型关系,但对偿付能力水平的影响不显著。进一步地,本文区分保险公司是否具有自发性公司治理意识和股权集中程度高低进行横截面分析,结果发现,我国保险公司独立董事制度的有效性在具有自发性公司治理意识或股权更分散的公司中显著更强。本文的研究结论为进一步完善我国保险公司独立董事制度提供了理论依据和决策支持。     

The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans

We verify the existence of a relation between loss given default rate (LGDR) and macroeconomic conditions by examining 11,649 bank loans concerning the Italian market. Using both the univariate and multivariate analyses, we pinpoint diverse macroeconomic explanatory variables for LGDR on loans to households and SMEs. For households, LGDR is more sensitive to the default-to-loan ratio, the unemployment rate, and household consumption. For SMEs, LGDR is influenced by the total number of employed people and the GDP growth rate. These findings corroborate the Basel Committee’s provision that LGDR quantification process must identify distinct downturn conditions for each supervisory asset class.

An evaluation of alternative approaches to the application of cash reserve requirements in Nigeria

This article evaluated ‘o-size-fits-all’ approach to cash reserve requirement implementation in Nigeria using the Vector Autoregressive methodology and scenario analysis. The central thrust was to ascertain if a one-size-fits-all approach would produce a better outcome or perhaps utilizing a differentiated approach would provide a better outcome. To that effect, our results eloquently provides various scenarios for consideration.     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops

We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and transaction demands caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 23 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt-to-reserve ratios, introducing transaction demand has a relatively modest effect for most countries. We find that, in general, the dollar acts as a safe haven currency during sudden stops for country specific and global sudden stops, increasing the optimal share of dollar bonds in central bank portfolios. Correspondingly, our model predicts that dollar shares should decline as debt-to-reserve ratios fall, as observed in recent data. We also find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has little importance for optimal reserve portfolios.     

Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses

Listed firms in Japan are effectively compelled to report management forecasts of sales, ordinary income, and net income along with actual earnings and sales each year. Prior studies report that Japanese managers tend to announce optimistic forecasts of earnings. We show that a large part (61.6%) of the overall optimistic bias in management earnings forecasts in Japan can be explained by loss forecast avoiding behavior of a small fraction (5.25%) of firms. Such behavior is caused in part by the view of the main bank and power group that the management forecast of earnings is the manager's earnings target. Our findings suggest that the Japanese stock market recognizes such loss forecast avoidance and accordingly discounts new information in management forecasts.     

Taxpayers' responsiveness to tax rate changes and implications for the cost of taxation in Sweden

Historically, labor supply elasticities have been used to evaluate tax policy and predict tax revenue effects. They are likely to underestimate taxpayers' response to tax rate changes, and hence to underestimate changes in potential tax revenues, however, because they measure only how taxpayers alter hours worked. Taxpayers can also respond to tax rate changes by altering, for instance, their work effort and form of compensation. An alternative measure that accounts for these responses as well as hours worked is the elasticity of taxable income. This paper estimates the elasticity of earned taxable income for Swedish taxpayers using two different approaches and a number of control variables and the 1990/1991 tax reform as a “natural experiment”. The preferred elasticity estimates fall in the range of 0.4–0.5, comparable with recent estimates for the U.S. and larger than most of the labor supply elasticity estimates used to evaluate tax policy in Scandinavia previously, which suggests that deadweight losses are two to three times higher than previously thought. JEL Classification H21 · H24 · H31 · J22     

Predicting Corporate Failure in the UK: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach

Scaling techniques are proposed as a tool for the analysis and prediction of corporate failure. This approach, while keeping a strong theoretical basis, has the advantage of visualising the main features of the data in the form of statistical maps that lend themselves to intuitive interpretation. The maps contain directional statistics to help with interpretation. The methodology is demonstrated using a sample of UK industrial companies. A future‐dated holdout sample is also employed to illustrate how the Multidimensional Scaling technique can aid practitioners when assessing the financial health of a company.     

美国信用衍生品交易监管立法及对我国的启示

本文论述信用衍生品主要类别、积极作用及交易蕴含风险,分析评价了2010年7月美国国会通过的包含信用衍生品在内的金融衍生品交易监管立法。我国监管层也有推出信用衍生品的计划,并于2010年11月开始市场试点,在此背景下作者对构建我国信用衍生品监管法律制度提出若干建议:加快制定包括信用衍生品在内的统一的金融衍生品交易监管法,为市场发展奠定法律基础;完善金融监管协调机制;尽快出台相关立法或司法解释以解决《中国银行间市场金融衍生产品交易主协议》有关规定与现行法律冲突的问题;适时修改监管规则以鼓励金融机构更多采用信用衍生品管理风险;逐步引进集中清算方式;改进信用衍生品监管信息披露要求。     

Earnings management and the allocation of net periodic pension costs to interim periods

We examine the pattern of reported quarterly net periodic pension costs. Quarterly pension costs are one of the largest single expense items for firms with pension plans (around 15% of income before extraordinary items in our sample). Under ASC 270, net pension costs should be recognized as incurred, or as the benefit provided by the expense is realized. We find that over the period of 2004–2010, there is significant variation in the amount of quarterly pension cost firms report. In addition, we find that income-increasing changes in pension costs are significantly associated with meeting or beating analysts' forecasts in a given quarter. We also show that income-decreasing changes to net periodic pension costs that would cause a firm to miss its earnings forecast are extremely rare. Finally, we find evidence that income-increasing and income-decreasing changes in quarterly pension costs are “settled up” in the fourth quarter (e.g., they are reversed).     

Going public in the 1980s: Evidence from Sweden

The paper explores the going public decision in a sample of family-owned corporations in Sweden, 1970–1991. the issuers' motivations for going public are documented and contrasted with economic theory. We find that the average firm is old, that a significant portion of the shares are sold by existing shareholders, that most going public activity took place after an exceptionally sharp stock price increase, and that going public activity is not related to the business cycle. the findings suggest that firms were taken public by their owners who wanted to liquidate their investment to finance consumption or portfolio diversification. the findings strike the common view that firms go public to finance growth. Data from other European countries exhibit similar patterns and suggest that our findings for Sweden may extend to other markets as well.     

Accounting for the furniture,fittings & equipment reserve in hotels

The somewhat idiosyncratic accounting procedure of maintaining reserves to fund furniture, fittings and equipment (FF&E) capital expenditure in hotels mediated by a management contract is examined. Five research objectives have been pursued: (i) ascertaining contrasting motives of owners and operators with respect to FF&E reserve accounting; (ii) determining FF&E reserve accounting approaches adopted in hotels; (iii) determining the amount assigned to FF&E reserves in hotels; (iv) determining the sufficiency of FF&E reserves in hotels; and (v) appraising the degree of ease with which hotel operators can draw on FF&E reserve funds. These objectives have been pursued through the analysis of qualitative field data as well as survey data collected in Australia and New Zealand. The study’s more significant findings include the determination that, consistent with the wishes of operators, maintaining cash funded FF&E reserves is the most popular approach (particularly in small hotels). It has also been found that FF&E reserves are 40 per cent underfunded. This deficiency beckons a question over whether hotel FF&E reserve accounting serves any meaningful role.     

From Plan to Market: A Comparison of Health and Old Age Care Policies in the UK and Sweden

This article reviews changes in the organization, delivery and financing of health care and old age services in the UK and Sweden over the past 25 years. User autonomy has become a more important policy objective than equity of access or equality of opportunity, with a greater reliance on market mechanisms for delivering services. The public and politicians seem to be prepared to accept that competition, choice and decentralization may result in a widening of regional and geographical inequalities, and the erosion of the universal character of the welfare state. These developments reflect broader normative shifts in both societies, and are likely to continue and become more widespread in the future, as they will be strongly influenced by demographic and social factors, fiscal constraints and the policies of supranational bodies such as the European Union.     

From Plan to Market: A Comparison of Health and Old Age Care Policies in the UK and Sweden

This article reviews changes in the organization, delivery and financing of health care and old age services in the UK and Sweden over the past 25 years. User autonomy has become a more important policy objective than equity of access or equality of opportunity, with a greater reliance on market mechanisms for delivering services. The public and politicians seem to be prepared to accept that competition, choice and decentralization may result in a widening of regional and geographical inequalities, and the erosion of the universal character of the welfare state. These developments reflect broader normative shifts in both societies, and are likely to continue and become more widespread in the future, as they will be strongly influenced by demographic and social factors, fiscal constraints and the policies of supranational bodies such as the European Union.     

Observable Consequences of Trading Structure Differences: On the Use of Variance Ratios in Microstructure Studies

This paper examines the variance ratio tests in studies of transitory volatility and concludes that the variance ratio is an appropriate test of trading structure differences only under certain assumptions regarding the evolution of underlying stock prices and the autocorrelation structure of returns. This result raises caution as to the interpretation of results bases upon the 24-hour variance ratio methodologies in studies of transitory volatility and trading structure effects. A numerical example indicates that errors in inferences can be severe.     

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今年深圳经济特区建立30年,伴随着特区的成长与发展,交通银行深圳分行也走过了20年的发展历程。三十年间,深圳以令人惊叹的＂特区速度＂取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成就,二十年来,交通银行深圳分行也同样走过了一条不断壮大而又不乏崎岖的发展道路,在市委、市政府和人民银行、