Institutionalization of risk and safety management at the local governmental level in Sweden

The starting point for this article is the need for empirical knowledge about organizational configuration for societal risk and safety management activities in a modern welfare society. In this paper, we use Sweden as an empirical frame to analyze the administrative management structure at the local governmental level. The analysis is based on statistical analysis of information from a web‐survey with administrative chief/head officials (n = 1283) with responsibilities for different municipal functions and sectors. The sample represented 25% of the Swedish municipalities (n = 290) and the response rate was approximately 60% (n = 766). The responses to two sets of questions (25 and 45 questions) are used for statistical analyses of management structures and task distribution within the municipal organizations. Principal component factor analyses with Varimax and Kaiser's Normalization was applied as a structure detection method. The results indicate a clear and uniform way to institutionalize societal risk and safety management at the local level. Furthermore, the management course of action is found to have different types of value characters. The implications that arise from the patterns identified in this study are considered to be of general relevance and topicality for research and practice in this area.     

对当前我国住房市场结构性问题的思考——基于北京市住房市场的实证分析

研究住宅市场供求关系的失衡以及特征、成因和根源,是解决住宅市场结构性问题的关键。解决住房市场绐构性问题,要调整好三个比例关系:保障类住房建设和商品房建设之间的比例关系;经济适用房建设与廉租房建设之间的比例关系;经济适用房建设和消费中"租"与"借"的比例关系。     

利益相关者视角下我国保险公司独立董事制度有效性研究

建立独立董事制度是完善我国保险公司治理结构的重要举措之一,对维护保险机构、保险消费者和中小股东的合法权益具有重要意义。现有文献对一般上市公司独立董事制度有效性的研究较多,但保险公司在资本结构、经营模式等方面具有诸多特殊性,所以有必要对保险公司独立董事制度有效性进行专门研究。本文基于我国47家股份制保险公司2016~2018年的数据,实证检验了保险公司独立董事占比及其背景特征对公司盈利能力、偿付能力水平的影响。研究发现,独立董事占比与盈利能力呈U型关系,但对偿付能力水平的影响不显著。进一步地,本文区分保险公司是否具有自发性公司治理意识和股权集中程度高低进行横截面分析,结果发现,我国保险公司独立董事制度的有效性在具有自发性公司治理意识或股权更分散的公司中显著更强。本文的研究结论为进一步完善我国保险公司独立董事制度提供了理论依据和决策支持。     

Safety vs. reputation: risk controversies in emerging policy networks regarding school safety in the Netherlands

This article deals with risk controversies in emerging policy networks regarding school safety in the Netherlands. It offers a grounded account of the interpretations of school risks and safety measures by the various stakeholders of the policy network, in particular, schools, local government and the police. Theoretically, policy networks are conceived as mediating between the structural conditions of the ‘risk-society’ and the ‘culture of fear’ on the one hand and the institution of safety standards on the organizational level of schools on the other hand. It is argued that in the low-risk context of schools, it is particularly important to take into account the soft, cultural side of safety next to the hard, material side of safety. This distinction also accounts for the ambiguities and controversies over school risks. A further conclusion is that in this network a lack of local leadership seems to hinder the development of firm safety measures. Overall, this article highlights the paradox between a concern for safety and a concern for a school’s reputation.     

The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans

We verify the existence of a relation between loss given default rate (LGDR) and macroeconomic conditions by examining 11,649 bank loans concerning the Italian market. Using both the univariate and multivariate analyses, we pinpoint diverse macroeconomic explanatory variables for LGDR on loans to households and SMEs. For households, LGDR is more sensitive to the default-to-loan ratio, the unemployment rate, and household consumption. For SMEs, LGDR is influenced by the total number of employed people and the GDP growth rate. These findings corroborate the Basel Committee’s provision that LGDR quantification process must identify distinct downturn conditions for each supervisory asset class.

Standard approaches to asset & liability risk** **Supported by the Swedish Insurance Federation.

We compare two different models for assets and liabilities for an insurance company that can be considered in the standard approach to solvency assessment and in particular, in determining the required target capital. The first model is suggested by a joint working party by members in CEA, Comité Européen des Assurances, and is based on the duration concept and the second one is an application of ideas by Samuelson and Vasicek.     

Budgeting and standard costing practices in New Zealand and the United Kingdom

The findings of a survey of budgeting and standard costing practices in New Zealand (NZ) and United Kingdom (UK) manufacturers are reported. The results suggest that some commentators' predictions of a demise in standard costing and variance analysis are overstated. It has been found that standard costing systems continue to be popular and that the majority of accountants surveyed do not envisage abandonment of standard costing and variance analysis in advanced manufacturing technology environments. Comparisons between budgeting and standard costing practices used in NZ and the UK reveal a high degree of consistency. In the case of the few differences that have been observed, it appears that there is a greater lag behind prescribed practice amongst NZ manufacturers. The main differences noted are: a greater proportion of performance reports used in NZ budget centers fail to distinguish between controllable and non-controllable costs; NZ manufacturers are more reliant on historic data when setting standard costs; when distinguishing between variable and fixed costs, there is a greater tendency in NZ to simply treat direct costs as variable and overhead costs as fixed.     

Automatic balancing mechanisms for notional defined contribution accounts in the presence of uncertainty

The notional defined contribution model combines pay-as-you-go financing and a defined contribution pension formula. This paper aims to demonstrate the extent to which liquidity and solvency indicators are affected by fluctuations in economic and demographic conditions and to explore the introduction of an automatic balancing mechanism (ABM) into the pension scheme. We demonstrate that the introduction of an ABM reduces the volatility of the buffer fund and that, in most cases, the automatic mechanism that re-establishes solvency produces the highest value of the risk-adjusted notional factor.     

Comparing the Effectiveness of Traditional and Time Varying Hedge Ratios Using New Zealand and Australian Debt Futures Contracts

We apply cointegration methodology to the New Zealand and Australian 90-day, three-year and 10-year debt and futures markets. We compare traditional methods of calculating hedge ratios with those computed by using univariate and multivariate error correction models. We use out-of-sample forecasting to determine which approach is the most effective. Contrary to recent research, our results show that univariate and multivariate error correction models do not outperform more traditional methods of constructing hedges.     

An evaluation of alternative approaches to the application of cash reserve requirements in Nigeria

This article evaluated ‘o-size-fits-all’ approach to cash reserve requirement implementation in Nigeria using the Vector Autoregressive methodology and scenario analysis. The central thrust was to ascertain if a one-size-fits-all approach would produce a better outcome or perhaps utilizing a differentiated approach would provide a better outcome. To that effect, our results eloquently provides various scenarios for consideration.     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

From ruin theory to solvency in non-life insurance

We start from ruin theory considerations in the classical Cramér–Lundberg model. We modify these considerations step by step so that finally we arrive at today’s solvency assessments for non-life insurance companies. These modifications include discussions about time horizons, risk measures, financial returns, and valuation of insurance liabilities.     

Using the short-lived arbitrage model to compute minimum variance hedge ratios: application to indices,stocks and commodities

The short-lived arbitrage model has been shown to significantly improve in-sample option pricing fit relative to the Black–Scholes model. Motivated by this model, we imply both volatility and virtual interest rates to adjust minimum variance hedge ratios. Using several error metrics, we find that the hedging model significantly outperforms the traditional delta hedge and a current benchmark hedge based on the practitioner Black–Scholes model. Our applications include hedges of index options, individual stock options and commodity futures options. Hedges on gold and silver are especially sensitive to virtual interest rates.     

Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops

We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and transaction demands caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 23 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt-to-reserve ratios, introducing transaction demand has a relatively modest effect for most countries. We find that, in general, the dollar acts as a safe haven currency during sudden stops for country specific and global sudden stops, increasing the optimal share of dollar bonds in central bank portfolios. Correspondingly, our model predicts that dollar shares should decline as debt-to-reserve ratios fall, as observed in recent data. We also find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has little importance for optimal reserve portfolios.     

Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses

Listed firms in Japan are effectively compelled to report management forecasts of sales, ordinary income, and net income along with actual earnings and sales each year. Prior studies report that Japanese managers tend to announce optimistic forecasts of earnings. We show that a large part (61.6%) of the overall optimistic bias in management earnings forecasts in Japan can be explained by loss forecast avoiding behavior of a small fraction (5.25%) of firms. Such behavior is caused in part by the view of the main bank and power group that the management forecast of earnings is the manager's earnings target. Our findings suggest that the Japanese stock market recognizes such loss forecast avoidance and accordingly discounts new information in management forecasts.     

Taxpayers' responsiveness to tax rate changes and implications for the cost of taxation in Sweden

Historically, labor supply elasticities have been used to evaluate tax policy and predict tax revenue effects. They are likely to underestimate taxpayers' response to tax rate changes, and hence to underestimate changes in potential tax revenues, however, because they measure only how taxpayers alter hours worked. Taxpayers can also respond to tax rate changes by altering, for instance, their work effort and form of compensation. An alternative measure that accounts for these responses as well as hours worked is the elasticity of taxable income. This paper estimates the elasticity of earned taxable income for Swedish taxpayers using two different approaches and a number of control variables and the 1990/1991 tax reform as a “natural experiment”. The preferred elasticity estimates fall in the range of 0.4–0.5, comparable with recent estimates for the U.S. and larger than most of the labor supply elasticity estimates used to evaluate tax policy in Scandinavia previously, which suggests that deadweight losses are two to three times higher than previously thought. JEL Classification H21 · H24 · H31 · J22