财险公司未决赔款准备金波动风险及其防范对策

未决赔款准备金作为财险公司最大的负债项目之一,通过不断提高数据的真实性与有效性,加强未决赔款准备金的波动风险的管理,有利于我国财险公司与财险行业的稳健经营与持续发展。未决赔款准备金波动风险产生的主要原因有数据的可靠性、精算评估方法的波动性以及宏观管理因素与经营环境的变化。通过切实提高管理水平、提升公司的精算技术、加强精细化经营理念的宣导以及加强非寿险行业的精算标准建设,将能有效地防范未决赔款准备金波动风险。     

存款准备金制度研究

我国存款准备金制度建立的初始动因是为了资金使用的结构性调整，这与西方国家建立存款准备金制度是为解决银行系统的流动性不足问题有很大不同。为发挥存款准备金作为货币政策工具的作用，建议改革存款准备金的结构；建立两级准备金制度；降低对商业银行存款准备金的利率水平；赋予中央银行调整存款准备金比率幅度的权力。     

稽查收入罚款比例低的原因及对策

94年分税制以来,税收收入每年增长幅度达一千亿元以上,仅每年查补税款就达几百亿元,税务稽查在税收工作中发挥了重中之重的作用,但由于查补税款的罚款比例过低,使税务稽查的作用发挥大打折扣,纳税人偷税处于一种屡查屡偷的怪圈之中,损害了税收执法的刚性和权威性.假查补收入是没有罚款收入的,这是造成罚款比例低的重要原因之一.     

Investor risk evaluation in the determination of management incentives in the mutual fund industry

This paper examines the way in which investors evaluate risk in deciding which mutual funds to invest. New fund investment is found to be positively related to a distributed lag of past fund performance with a strong degree of inertia. The relationship is mostly linear with significant nonlinearities at the upper (and possibly the lower) end of the performance spectrum. Investors appear to use publicly available data in a way that is consistent with the theory, giving equal weight in their decisions to the return and market risk components of the performance measure, while ignoring diversifiable risk. Finally, it is shown that improved performance in any year has a significant impact on the earnings of the management company. Because managers are rewarded on the basis of risk adjusted returns, risk neutral managers have no incentive to manipulate risk, except at very high performance levels.     

The effect of contemporaneous reserve accounting on the market for federal funds

This paper evaluates the effect of the transition from lagged to contemporaneous reserve accounting for the determination of bank reserve requirements through its impact on the market for Federal funds. The results indicate that increased target reserve uncertainty resulting from the implementation of the contemporaneous reserve accounting system (CRA) caused an initial increase in intraday Federal funds rate variance and daily interest rate differences. However, subsequent to a ‘learning’ period, intraday variance appears to be less pronounced and daily differentials appear to be narrower than under the previously used lagged reserve accounting system (LRA). These results are attributed to the lengthening of the accounting period from one to two weeks. Therefore, while not costless, the new system does not appear to have seriously disrupted the Federal funds market.     

Accounting for the furniture,fittings & equipment reserve in hotels

The somewhat idiosyncratic accounting procedure of maintaining reserves to fund furniture, fittings and equipment (FF&E) capital expenditure in hotels mediated by a management contract is examined. Five research objectives have been pursued: (i) ascertaining contrasting motives of owners and operators with respect to FF&E reserve accounting; (ii) determining FF&E reserve accounting approaches adopted in hotels; (iii) determining the amount assigned to FF&E reserves in hotels; (iv) determining the sufficiency of FF&E reserves in hotels; and (v) appraising the degree of ease with which hotel operators can draw on FF&E reserve funds. These objectives have been pursued through the analysis of qualitative field data as well as survey data collected in Australia and New Zealand. The study’s more significant findings include the determination that, consistent with the wishes of operators, maintaining cash funded FF&E reserves is the most popular approach (particularly in small hotels). It has also been found that FF&E reserves are 40 per cent underfunded. This deficiency beckons a question over whether hotel FF&E reserve accounting serves any meaningful role.     

我国场外衍生品市场适当性规则的立法研究

根据金融十二五规划,我国场外衍生品市场将获得更充分的发展,适当性规则作为场外衍生品投资者保护制度中不可或缺的组成要件,重要性日益突出,内涵也将与时俱进。目前我国场外衍生品市场适当性规则的法制现状主要存在银行立法过于原则、证券立法门类繁多、客户分类易成为金融机构限制交易的手段、尽职调查义务重形式、轻实质等问题。对此,参考借鉴发达资本市场关于客户分类、尽职调查义务和法律责任等方面的立法经验,构建并完善我国场外衍生品市场适当性规则的法律制度体系。     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

Disclosure of reserve quantum in the extractive industries

We explore why some firms in the extractive industries disclose mineral reserve quantum in their annual reports and others do not. We propose that the firms' reserve disclosure policies are a function of the extent of information asymmetries, as well as information production, litigation and proprietary costs. More specifically, we propose that a firm's decisions to disclose reserves in the annual report are a function of the stage of the firm's operations, use of project financing, and the cost of measuring reserves. Empirical tests are confirmatory.     

Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule

We test a Wall Street investment strategy, "pairs trading,"with daily data over 1962–2002. Stocks are matched intopairs with minimum distance between normalized historical prices.A simple trading rule yields average annualized excess returnsof up to 11% for self-financing portfolios of pairs. The profitstypically exceed conservative transaction-cost estimates. Bootstrapresults suggest that the "pairs" effect differs from previouslydocumented reversal profits. Robustness of the excess returnsindicates that pairs trading profits from temporary mispricingof close substitutes. We link the profitability to the presenceof a common factor in the returns, different from conventionalrisk measures.     

Payment obligations,reserve requirements,and the demand for central bank balances

We develop a model in which a bank's demand for reserves depends on the joint distribution of transactions, reserve requirements, and the interest rate. By devoting resources to its liquidity management, a bank can save on costly reserves required to settle its payments on time. We test the model with data from the largest banks in the Swiss Interbank Clearing system. We find that the turnover ratio (the speed with which a bank turns over its reserves in the payment system) depends largely on the aggregate value of its payments. We also find that reserve requirements impose a highly uneven burden on the banks.     

我国黄金储备动态管理研究

按照传统的黄金储备管理方法,黄金储备是不流动的,如要动用黄金必须经有关方面许可。这种固定的、封闭的管理方法,使央行承担了黄金储备的机会成本和金价下跌的风险。为了改变这种管理方式,我们必须创建新型的黄金储备管理模式,实施黄金储备流动性管理和保值增值管理,提高黄金储备的收益率。保障黄金储备在外汇储备中的合理规模,增强国家的金融安全。这些建议不仅具有可行性和可操作性,而且可以提供给有关部门参考。     

Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops

We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and transaction demands caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 23 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt-to-reserve ratios, introducing transaction demand has a relatively modest effect for most countries. We find that, in general, the dollar acts as a safe haven currency during sudden stops for country specific and global sudden stops, increasing the optimal share of dollar bonds in central bank portfolios. Correspondingly, our model predicts that dollar shares should decline as debt-to-reserve ratios fall, as observed in recent data. We also find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has little importance for optimal reserve portfolios.     

Striking a global balance for successful risk systems

Profile of Evan Picoult, Managing Director and head of Risk Methods and Analytics, Citigroup.     

按照美的规律办事

<正> 江泽民同志关于“三个代表”的重要思想不仅从政治上充分表达了中国共产党人立志为最广大人民谋利益的伟大抱负,而且从美学上展示出一种最高的审美境界——立志带领全国各族人民共同创造幸福生活和美好未来。马克思指出,“人是按照美的规律来塑造的。”“社会的进步是人类对美的追求的结晶。”的确,从猿到人,从原始到现代,人类不仅按照美的规律塑造了自身,以自身的进化展示了美的形成过程,而且也按照美的规律创造了整个世界,让     

Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

信用卡积分拨备的精细化管理研究

信用卡积分是信用卡业务经营中维持客户忠诚度的重要手段.由于能够稳定现有客户资源,培养客户忠诚度,促进刷卡消费额的增长,吸引非本行持卡人加入,因此,信用卡积分成为各家发卡机构普遍采用的一种客户忠诚计划.