Solution d'un problème du calcul des probabilités

Abstract

A la dernière réunion annuelle de la Société Norvégienne de Mathématiques, M. le Professeur Guldberg a fait une conférence très intéressante, dans laquelle il a montré comment on est arrivé par des considérations élémentaires du calcul des probabilités à un problème connu sous le nom de “Problème de Simmons”. Je me permets de présenter quelques réflexions sur ce problème, que m'a suggéré l'intéressante conférence de M. Guldberg.     

Is international diversification really beneficial?

Previous research claims that low constant correlations among international stock indices create substantial risk-reduction from diversification. We contend that only using constant correlations is too simplistic an approach. We examine international diversification by: (1) using conditional correlations, (2) evaluating tail risk, including the effect of skewness and kurtosis, and (3) examining the possible tradeoffs of standard deviation with correlation, skewness, and kurtosis. We show that conclusions concerning diversification based solely on constant correlations across markets can be misleading, since the diversification benefits are time-varying, are affected by non-normality, and depend on the benchmark (country) employed. Finally, tradeoffs do exist between standard deviation and the other risk factors.     

What drives international portfolio flows?

Understanding what drives international portfolio flows has important policy implications for countries wishing to exert some control on the size, direction and volatility of the flows. This paper empirically assesses the relative contribution of common (push) and country-specific (pull) factors to the variation of bond and equity flows from the US to 55 other countries. Using a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model, we find that more than 80% of the variation in bond and equity flows is due to push factors from the US to other countries. Hence global economic forces seem to prevail over domestic economic forces in explaining movements in international portfolio flows. The dynamics of push and pull factors can be partially explained by US and foreign economic fundamentals.     

The effectiveness of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy: New evidence based on international interest rate differentials

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. We first document that long-term rates followed a common global downward trend that had already manifested itself prior to the financial crisis. The bond-buying operations (commonly dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE)) of the US Federal Reserve did not disturb this global co-movement – i.e. the global downward trend in interest rates. We model the relationship between USD and euro (riskless) long-term interest rates using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model (CVAR) employing recursive estimation methods. We find no evidence that QE1 (or the QE episodes) destabilized the transatlantic interest-rate relationship, nor the relationship between interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate. A robustness test using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) with interest rates, inflation rates and output differentials for 11 countries (relative to US) yielded the same result. There is thus little evidence that central bank bond-buying in the US had an independent, distinct impact on US interest rates.     

The “four I's” of the international monetary system and the international role of the euro

This article highlights the main sources of negative externalities in the current international monetary system, through a “four I's” approach (instability, incertitude, inequity and insufficiency of the aggregate demand). It then questions the ability of the euro to contribute to a more balanced and sustainable international monetary regime. The euro cannot become a major international currency without long-term growth in the Eurozone, without the creation of a unified marketplace for public debt backed by the European Central Bank, and without shared desire to internationalize the euro, particularly as an invoicing currency for trade.     

Stock market short-termism—an international perspective

This study uses a VAR approach with a time-varying risk premium to see if stock market investors are short-term oriented, placing too much weight on current and near cash flows. Using aggregate stock market data for Australia, Germany, Japan, USA and UK markets (1977–1999), we find the degree of persistent under-valuation of future cash flows is far higher in the UK relative to the other countries in our sample, and is market-wide. Also, over the period, US investors appear to have consistently underestimated long horizon cash flows in current stock market valuations relative to a rational valuation model.     

Do ETFs provide effective international diversification?

Global investments have been a hot issue for years. Investors can diversify risks and obtain benefits from foreign markets by investing directly in the foreign security market or indirectly in Exchange-Trade Funds (ETFs). Because direct investments are not always feasible, we investigate whether indirect investments can replace direct investments. We create different regional optimal portfolios containing ETFs and ensure optimal asset portfolio allocation. In addition to mean-variance approach, the Sharpe index, we also adopt the Campbell et al. (2001) method to have the efficient frontier under control risks, the Value at Risk. We apply both normal and non-normal distributions for comparisons and find that different assumptions of return distributions affect the results of efficient frontier. The results show that international diversification is a reasonable strategy. In addition, when comparing ETFs and target market index portfolios, ETFs have higher Sharpe measures than target market indices especially in the emerging markets. However, there are no significant performance differences between direct and indirect methods even if we use different performance measures. We also find that the diversification benefits are the same before and after the Subprime crisis. We conclude that it is effective for investors to use indirect methods to create internationally diversified portfolios.     

Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

We investigate the role of international trade and proximity to war in international stock markets during the invasion of Ukraine by employing DiD designs and panel data comprising 70 stock markets. We find that differences in trade exposure to warring countries (trade effect) have a substantial and negative impact on non-European equity markets but are irrelevant for European markets. In contrast, differences in the distance to warring countries (proximity effect) have a significant and negative impact on European markets but have no bearing on non-European markets. We find that the relevance of rent from mineral, natural gas, and oil resources and the relevance of metals, ores, and fuels in exports operate as mitigators of the trade effect. Our paper provides valuable empirical evidence regarding the importance of mitigating the vulnerability of financial markets to international trade when a major war breaks out.     

Is international accounting education delivering pedagogical value?

This paper examines whether universities are delivering pedagogical value to international accounting students commensurate with the costs of studying abroad. The paper uses survey and interview methods to explore the extent to which Chinese Learners (CLs) in an Australian postgraduate accounting subject have distinct learning needs. The paper then reviews universities’ responses to these needs, especially in light of funding and resource pressures. The paper reinforces findings that CLs have different learning approaches to local students, but not inferior or ‘shallow’ approaches. However, since CLs face distinctive financial and social pressures to achieve high results, their learning practices may be more sensitive to changes in teaching and assessment, such that cost constraints on educational resources might disproportionately affect their learning. This suggests that a paradoxical result of the funding pressures on many universities may be to encourage large international student cohorts while constraining available resources to meet their learning needs.     

Which demands affect optimal international portfolio choices?

This study analyzes the asset allocations of simple international portfolios that include domestic risky assets, foreign risky assets, and domestic risk-free bonds, through a theoretical analysis. A close-form solution for the optimal holding rates is derived, and can be further sub-divided into three categories of demand: speculative demand, diversified demand, and hedging demands. We carefully explore the essential problem of identifying the underlying reasons for asset allocations, which in turn allows us to answer the question of which of these demands are critical in influencing holding changes.     

Does proximity matter in international bond underwriting?

In this study, we analyze a sample of 3982 international bond issues from 31 countries to examine the impact of geographic proximity on the selection of lead underwriter in the international bond market. We find that proximate banks are more likely to lead underwrite risky bonds and non-rated bonds. On average, the total issue cost is lower if the lead underwriter is a proximate bank. The overall results suggest that geographically proximate banks have better access to private information about issuing companies. We also find that the cost reduction effect of proximate underwriting only appears in developed markets. In addition, this cost reduction effect is relatively weak in countries with a legal system that provides good investor protection.     

What moves international stock and bond markets?

We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and discount rates. News about future cash flows, rather than discount rates, is the main driver of international stock returns. This evidence is in contrast with the typical results reported only for the US. Inflation news instead is the main driver of international bond returns. Next, we turn to the interaction between these return components and international portfolio flows. We find evidence consistent with price pressure, short-term trend chasing, and short-run overreaction in the equity market. We also find that international bond flows to emerging markets are more sensitive to interest rate shocks than equity flows.     

Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform

This paper examines the impact of Japan’s 2009 adoption of a territorial tax regime using event study methods which leverage individual firm characteristics to identify underlying drivers of market reactions. Differences in Japanese firms’ foreign and domestic effective tax rates yield an aggregate capitalization effect of \(\yen \)4.3 trillion, while firms with less prior foreign exposure and fewer opportunities for tax avoidance experienced relatively larger abnormal returns. We attribute these results to tax savings on existing undistributed foreign earnings, enhanced opportunities for international expansion, and cultural biases against tax planning. Spillovers to the US (through tax or firm competition) appear insignificant.     

Theme: Whole of government accounting— international trends

This article reconstructs the literature on corporate turnaround in terms of its recurring features. It then tests these against the experience of four very different cases of the turnaround or attempted turnaround of public and non-profit organizations. It concludes that while some concepts from the corporate literature usefully highlight important aspects, other critical complicating features of what is needed to achieve a turnaround in public and non-profit contexts would be overlooked or poorly treated if the situation were considered simply in these terms. These complicating features deserve the attention both of practitioners and researchers.     

Why do transnational approaches to international innovation fail?

The transnational corporation paradigm is increasingly at odds with empirical findings regarding international innovation strategies. Analysing a longitudinal case study, we show that a firm's international R&D subsidiaries can be a powerful force that can shape strategy even more than headquarters. On the basis of a literature review that identifies factors and mechanisms by which the firm's subsidiaries are likely to exert this influence, we explore these factors and mechanisms by applying them to our case. Our findings show that international innovation strategies are unlikely to succeed if international R&D subsidiaries use their capabilities and market power to oppose their implementation.     

Sur le problème d'interpolation

Abstract

Dernièrement quand il était mis en question d'introduire dans la pratique de la technique des assurances sur la vie des primes continues, j''ai fait l'épreuve de calculer d'une manière la plus simple qu'il était possible, des valeurs approximatives mais d'une grande précision des nombres fondamentals      

Climate change: fiscal and international trade issues—introduction

The challenges to dealing with climate change are broad and complex. This special section reviews some of—but also brings new insights to—the challenges.