保兑行丢失单据有关责任的案例分析

2002年5月10日某客户向C行提交信用证项下出口单据一套,金额为USD20886.40,该信用证(LC322022IMP)为贝宁某银行所开立,由法国某银行加具保兑.……     

Scaling models for the severity and frequency of external operational loss data

According to Basel II criteria, the use of external data is indispensable to the implementation of an advanced method for calculating operational risk capital. This article investigates how the severity and frequencies of external losses are scaled for integration with internal data. We set up an initial model designed to explain the loss severity by taking into account potential selection bias in the external data. Estimation results show that many variables have significant power in explaining the loss amount. We use them to develop a normalization formula. We develop a zero-inflated count-data model to scale the loss frequency. We compute an operational VaR and we conduct out-of-sample backtesting.     

On the distribution of discounted loss reserves using generalized linear models

Renshaw and Verrall [] specified the generalized linear model (GLM) underlying the chain-ladder technique and suggested some other GLMs which might be useful in claims reserving. The purpose of this paper is to construct bounds for the discounted loss reserve within the framework of GLMs. Exact calculation of the distribution of the total reserve is not feasible, and hence the determination of lower and upper bounds with a simpler structure is a possible way out. The paper ends with numerical examples illustrating the usefulness of the presented approximations.     

Beliefs regarding fundamental value and optimal investing

Standard optimal portfolio selection models take no account of the special information that active investors believe they possess. For example, active investors who believe they can place bounds on the price of a security will want to use that information when assessing risk and expected return in order to construct an optimal portfolio. In this paper, we use two continuous-time models to analyze how placing boundaries on the price of a stock affects assessed risk, expected returns, and the optimal holdings of an active investor, and how those vary as a function of the relation between the stock price and the boundaries. In particular, the optimal strategy takes significant long/short positions as the price nears its lower/upper boundary.     

Statistic problems regarding tuberculosis infection and morbidity of tuberculosis

The statistic relations between tubercular infection and morbidity are comparatively complicated, partly because the infection rate will depend on age and calendar time, partly because of the varying interval (latent period) which may pass from the time of infection to the disease. A theoretical analysis of these relations may possibly count on a certain amount of interest to future statistic investigations regarding tuberculosis. It is my opinion that too little attention lias been paid to them in many of the investigations which have hitherto been carried out.     

数学金融中的经验与洞察

本文阐述了作者数学金融中的经验与洞察,系统介绍了数学金融的发展及研究模型,并对数学金融应用于实践边界等问题提出了自己的观点,分析了尤其是在面临风险的情况下,非数学要素往往起到的决定作用,如人性因素、制度因素等等。     

数学建模教育与金融人才培养

定量建模能力是现代高级金融人才所必须具备的能力，数学建模教育是培养具有定量建模能力的高级金融人才的有效手段。组织学生参加全国大学生数学建模竞赛、开设数学建模选修课和实验课，是金融类院校开展数学建模教育的适当方式。     

投资的收益和风险的数学建模

在现代商业、金融投资中,投资者总是希望实现收益最大化,然而投资是要承担风险的,收益与风险之间存在难以调和的矛盾,怎样兼顾两者,寻找切实可行的决策思想,是投资的收益和风险决策的一个重要问题.可以利用数学建模思想和方法,通过相应数学模型的建立和MATLAB求解,绘制出最优收益随风险度变化的趋势图,选择图中曲线的拐点作为最优...     

A link between complete models with stochastic volatility and ARCH models

In this paper, we propose a heteroskedastic model in discrete time which converges, when the sampling interval goes to zero, towards the complete model with stochastic volatility in continuous time described in Hobson and Rogers (1998). Then, we study its stationarity and moment properties. In particular, we exhibit a specific model which shares many properties with the GARCH(1,1) model, establishing a clear link between the two approaches. We also prove the consistency of the pseudo conditional likelihood maximum estimates for this specific model.Received: December 2002Mathematics Subject Classification: 90A09, 60J60, 62M05JEL Classification: C32This work was supported in part by Dynstoch European network. Thanks to David Hobson for introducing me to these models, and to Valentine Genon-Catalot for numerous and very fruitful discussion on this work. The author is also grateful to Uwe Kuchler for various helpful suggestions, and to two referees and an associate editor for their comments and suggestions.     

通货膨胀目标制效应的数理分析与启示

在比较、分析通货膨胀目标制类型和特征的基础上,运用数理经济学工具对通货膨胀目标制的宏观经济效应进行实证分析,结果表明:通货膨胀目标制对宏观经济的有效性影响要优于其它货币政策框架.因此,我们应该为尽快引进这种政策框架进行积极准备.     

Insurance loss coverage and social welfare

Restrictions on insurance risk classification may induce adverse selection, which is usually perceived as a bad outcome, both for insurers and for society. However, a social benefit of modest adverse selection is that it can lead to an increase in ‘loss coverage’, defined as expected losses compensated by insurance for the whole population. We reconcile the concept of loss coverage to a utilitarian concept of social welfare commonly found in the economic literature on risk classification. For iso-elastic insurance demand, ranking risk classification schemes by (observable) loss coverage always give the same ordering as ranking by (unobservable) social welfare.     

种养殖业保险发展问题分析

农业是国民经济的根基。但是占农业较大比重的种养殖业保险发展比较滞后的问题,削弱了保险服务经济社会的功效。虽然国家实施了一系列的政策性保险,但是种养殖业保险面临的风险较大、管理较弱、人才紧缺、环境不优的问题,限制了这一领域保险的健康快速发展。本文提出,现阶段要通过科学确立其发展模式,建立有效的风险分担机制,加强管理、优化环境,实现种养殖业保险的又好又快发展,服务农业产业发展大局。     

Emerging risk of autoignition and fire in underground coal storage

The risk and prevention of autoignition in underground coal storage facilities are reviewed in the light of the recent incidents of smouldering fires. Also, the opportunities are considered on the efficiency of the alternatives to prevent and extinguish closed-space fires. The complexities in avoiding and extinguishing underground fires are highlighted in the case example, describing the observations and outcome of a smouldering coal fire in the storage. The principles of self-heating and most critical factors in spontaneous combustion such as the condition and quality of coal are fairly well known, but usually only provide partial help in fire prevention. The documented cases and the case example suggest that nitrogen injection can be useful for extinguishing controllable fires. Three-phase foams and oxygen-displacing exhaust gases appear preferable against uncontrolled fires, particularly if access to the fire area is limited or impossible. Otherwise, efficient fire extinction during power plant operation can be challenging, as any air ingress tends to feed the fire and results in losses of the extinguishing agent and the heating value of coal. Methods and indicators for detecting and predicting the ignition are discussed, and improvements are suggested to enhance the storage and plant availability.     

Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market

This paper investigates fire sales of downgraded corporate bonds induced by regulatory constraints imposed on insurance companies. As insurance companies hold over one-third of investment-grade corporate bonds, the collective need to divest downgraded issues may be limited by a scarcity of counterparties. Using insurance company transaction data, we find that insurance companies that are relatively more constrained by regulation are more likely to sell downgraded bonds. Bonds subject to a high probability of regulatory-induced selling exhibit price declines and subsequent reversals. These price effects appear larger during periods when the insurance industry is relatively distressed and other potential buyers' carpital is scarce.     

Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets

This paper examines institutional price pressure in equity markets by studying mutual fund transactions caused by capital flows from 1980 to 2004. Funds experiencing large outflows tend to decrease existing positions, which creates price pressure in the securities held in common by distressed funds. Similarly, the tendency among funds experiencing large inflows to expand existing positions creates positive price pressure in overlapping holdings. Investors who trade against constrained mutual funds earn significant returns for providing liquidity. In addition, future flow-driven transactions are predictable, creating an incentive to front-run the anticipated forced trades by funds experiencing extreme capital flows.     

Events and economic forecasting models

In the June 1972 issue of Futures, Olaf Helmer developed the idea of cross-impact analysis to include both events (singular occurrences) and trends (gradual developments).¹ The present article pursues further this idea, using an econometric forecasting model to represent the economic trends in an economy, and a sequential cross-impact method to analyse the events which could change its course. The application of this idea, also described in the article, suggests a procedure for improving the communication between model builders and final users.