The Public Responsibility of Actuaries in American Pensions

Abstract

This article traces the history of the public responsibility of actuaries concerning American pension plans. It includes both defined-benefit and defined-contribution plans for employees of both private and public employers. It does not include Social Security. Actuaries have provided innovative approaches to plan design, funding, funding instruments, accounting, and legal and regulatory requirements. Actuaries have made substantial contributions that have enabled pension plans, together with Social Security, to provide economic security for millions of workers and their dependents when employment ends. However, many Americans still lack assurance of a retirement income that is initially adequate, continues for life, and keeps pace with inflation. Thus, challenges will continue to face pension actuaries in the years ahead.     

The new joint pension scheme established by collective agreement between the Norwegian employers' confederation and the Norwegian federation of trade unions

Abstract

Norway has a statutory old age pension scheme covering the whole population over 70 years of age. Since 1959, pensions are granted without a means test. As from 1 April 1962, the annual pension amounts are 3348 crowns for a single person and 5028 crowns for a married couple. For special groups, such as seamen, fishermen and forestry workers, additional pension schemes have been established by law. Many private companies, especially the larger firms, have established staff pension schemes on a voluntary basis, either in the form of actuarial pension funds, or through collective pension insurance. Many of these schemes cover only staff employees, not workers. In other cases both groups are covered, but with relatively higher benefits for staff than for workers.     

Contracting out of a state pension scheme

Abstract

The title of this paper is not common in actuarial literature, but the subject is one which has become familiar to every Briton in the last two years and which is essentially actuarial. The phrase "contracting out" has become English shorthand for an arrangement by which a private pension scheme may decide that it will not join a State pension scheme, usually because it already provides equal or better benefits. If the private scheme "contracts out" it will be excused the payment of contributions and will, of course, forgo the benefits.     

Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement: novel causal evidence

ABSTRACT

We utilise recent Household Finance and Consumption Survey microdata to report first causal effects of financial literacy on voluntary private pension schemes participation for a Central and Eastern European (CEE) country, namely Slovakia. Savings for retirement in the supplementary pension schemes are positively associated with financial literacy after controlling for a set of relevant socio-economic variables. One additional correctly answered financial literacy question leads to a 5.6 percentage points increase in the probability of having a voluntary pension savings plan in our ordinary least squares estimates. The causal impact of financial literacy increases to 19.5 percentage points when we address potential endogeneity problems by novel to the literature instrumental variables.     

Multivariate Analysis of Pension Plan Mortality Data

Abstract

This paper uses the logistic regression model to examine private pension plan data for 1989–95 collected by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries. When only one explanatory variable, such as annuity class size, is used in modeling mortality rates, the model provides a reasonable fit to the data. Multiple explanatory variables give less satisfactory results.     

Adverse selection in the annuity market with sequential and simultaneous insurance demand

This paper investigates the effect of adverse selection on the private annuity market in a model with two periods of retirement and two types of individuals, who differ in their life expectancy. In order to introduce the existence of time-limited pension insurance, we consider a model where for each period of retirement separate contracts can be purchased. Demand for the two periods can be decided sequentially or simultaneously. We show that only a situation where all risk types choose sequential contracts is an equilibrium and that this outcome is favourable for the long-living, but is unfavourable for the short-living individuals. JEL Classification D82 · D91 · G22     

Financing Gaps of Public Pension Schemes and Market Potential for the Private Retirement Market

Abstract

Increasing longevity, declining birth rates, and high unemployment severely threaten the financial basis of many public pension plans. These problems are most pronounced in continental Europe, where public pension plans tend to be relatively generous and are usually funded on a pay-as-you-go basis. Given the demographic development, future pension payments exceed the expected contribution payments. The resulting financing gaps can be seen as implicit public debts (net pension liabilities), which often exceed the value of GDP figures and are in many cases higher than the explicit public debt figures. If people would decide to cover these financing gaps via life insurance, life insurance premiums would triple in Germany, more than double in Italy, and double in Canada and France. The increase would be only moderate in the U.S. and particularly small in the U.K.     

The Return to Direct Investment in Private Firms: New Evidence on the Private Equity Premium Puzzle*

This paper uses a novel dataset to analyze the return to direct investments in private firms by pension funds. We have two key findings. First, direct investments in private firms have underperformed public equity by 392 basis points per annum under conservative risk adjustments. Second, initial mispricing, due to over‐optimism or misperceived risk, and subsequent low capital gains seem to explain the gap in returns to private firms. Overall, these findings complement the finding of Moskowitz and Vissing‐Jørgensen (2002) of low returns on entrepreneurial investments and provide new insight into the existence of what they call the private equity premium puzzle: Even professional investors with well‐diversified portfolios like pension funds seem to get a poor risk‐return tradeoff from investing directly in private firms.     

Developing Mortality Improvement Formulas

Abstract

Longevity improvements have contributed to widespread underfunding of pension plans and losses in insured annuity portfolios. Insurers might reasonably expect some upside from the effect of lower mortality on their life business. Although mortality improvement scales, such as the Society of Actuaries Scale AA, are widely employed in pension and annuity valuation, the derivation of these scales appears heuristic, leading to problems in deriving meaningful measures of uncertainty. We explore the evidence on mortality trends for the Canadian life insurance companies, data, using stochastic models. We use the more credible population data to benchmark the insured lives data. Finally, we derive a practical, model-based formula for actuaries to incorporate mortality improvement and the associated uncertainty into their calculations.     

Theorie und Empirie steigender Lebenserwartung, Nachreservierung und „Umverteilung“ in der privaten Rentenversicherung

An unexpected increase in life expectancy has implications for private pensions (annuities). These can be offset by reducing pension payments, cross-subsidization of the pension payments, risk-taking of insurance companies or combining these policies. An empirical study of the German market for annuities shows that most of the companies under investigation dealt with the problem of an unexpected increase of life expectation in the 90ies by significant cross-subsidization of the pension payments from young policy holders. This paper discusses the implications such policies can have when the importance of private pensions increases in the future.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

Macroeconomic Aspects of Private Retirement Programs

Abstract

The decline in importance of private defined benefit plans in relation to defined contribution plans in the United States is a major issue of interest to pension actuaries. This decline has been attributed to numerous factors: costs of government regulation, societal and cultural changes, changed employer attitudes, and employees’ lack of understanding of defined benefit plans. It has also caused some observers to proclaim the end of private defined benefit plans. This paper analyzes possible macroeconomic factors contributing to the crisis of defined benefit plans and proposes an alternative hypothesis for the cause of the crisis: the decline of the relative attractiveness of defined benefit plans in relation to defined contribution plans when these are viewed as investments, that is, as securities in capital markets.     

Supplementary Pension Coverage in Britain

The 1986 Social Security Act introduced far-reaching changes to the supplementary pension environment in Britain, encouraging the growth of defined contribution pension plans and especially personal pensions. This paper examines the pattern of supplementary pension coverage of employees in Britain five years after the implementation of the Act, using cross-sectional data from the Family Resources Survey 1993–94. Two-thirds of employees in Britain are covered by private contracted-out pension scheme. Employer-provided defined benefit pension schemes remain the dominant type of supplementary pension scheme. The growth of personal pension plans is more marked among manual, less-skilled, workers in smaller establishments. The paper concludes that, in the absence of further pension reform, adverse labour market conditions will exert downward pressure on private pension coverage. JEL classification:I38, J32, J38.     

The Public Role of Actuaries in Private Pensions in Canada

Abstract

Actuaries have played prominent public roles in the development of occupational pension plans and social security arrangements in Canada. These roles include advising governments and government-appointed committees about regulatory structures, establishing funding standards, actively participating in regulatory functions, and pioneering valuation work for pension plans covering public sector employees. The formation in 1965 of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries led to the accreditation of actuaries in pension and tax legislation and to the development of actuarial standards of practice for pension work.     

Compliance with pension‐related mandatory disclosures and debt financing

Using hand‐collected data on the level of pension‐related mandatory disclosures required by International Accounting Standard 19 Employee Benefits, we test whether compliance levels with these disclosures convey information that affects firms’ access to the public instead of the private debt market, as well as the cost of their new debt issues. We document a higher tendency to access the public debt market for firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure enjoy a lower cost in terms of issuance of public debt, but not a lower cost for private debt issues. Thus, the benefits of disclosure in reducing information risk are only realisable when creditors rely heavily on financial statements in their decision making, due to the limited access to private information. Additional tests reveal that high compliance levels effectively mitigate the negative effect of pension deficits on the cost of public debt. These findings provide novel evidence in the extant literature on the role of mandatory (and, in particular, pension‐related) disclosures on firms’ debt financing. They also have important policy implications.     

The Earnings Implications of Pension Expense

Abstract

Recent challenges to the actuarial pension model and a movement to harmonize international accounting standards both suggest that the current Canadian standards for pension accounting, CICA 3461, may see substantial revision during upcoming years. To understand better the implications of these possible accounting changes, this paper presents the results of a stochastic analysis that quantifies how the volatility of pension expense for a sample of ten Canadian companies sponsoring defined benefit plans will be increased by the adoption of immediate recognition accounting. For certain companies this increase is significant and is shown to have a material earnings impact. The implications of this earnings volatility for the future of defined benefit pension plans are also explored.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

“Author’s Reply: Critique of Mexico’s New Social Security Act”, Octavio Maupomé-Carvantes,July, 1999

Abstract

This paper considers the pension plan as part of the capital structure of the sponsoring employer. This enables lessons from financial theory concerning capital structure to be used to answer the question, “What assets should a pension fund hold?” The standard Modigliani-Miller framework is expanded on to consider the implications of corporate tax. This leads to the conclusion that bond investment for pension plans has tangible advantages over holding risky assets (e.g., equities). The paper considers a case study of the pension plan of the Boots Company, a U.K. pharmacy retailer with a pension fund of around £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion), where these ideas were put into practice. Finally, the paper discusses the value released to shareholders and the extra security members of the pension fund have derived from putting theory into practice.     

Human Survival at Older Ages and the Implications for Longevity Bond Pricing

Abstract

Governments are concerned about the future of pension plans, for which increasing longevity is judged to be an important risk to their future viability. We focus on human survival at age 65, the starting age point for many pension products. Using a simple model, we link basic measures of life expectancy to the shape of the human survival function and consider its various forms. The model is then used as the basis for investigating actual survival in England and Wales. We find that life expectancy is increasing at a faster rate than at any time in history, with no evidence of this trend slowing or any upper age limit. With interest growing in the use of longevity bonds as a way to transfer longevity risks from pension providers to the capital markets, we seek to understand how longevity drift affects pension liabilities based on mortality rates at the point of annuitization, versus what actually happens as a cohort ages. The main findings are that longevity bonds are an effective hedge against longevity risk; however, it is not only the oldest old that are driving risk, but also more 65-year-olds reaching less extreme ages such as 80. In addition, we find that the possibility of future inflation and interest rates could be as an important a risk to annuities as longevity itself.     

The Shift to Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Abstract

There has been a strong shift away from defined benefit (DB) pension plans toward defined contribution (DC) pension plans in the United States over the last 20 years. A variety of reasons for this shift have been proposed. In another paper in this issue, Krzysztof Ostaszewski presents a new hypothesis to explain the shift to DC plans in the United States. He argues that the decline in importance of DB plans is due to a shift in the way relative returns to macroeconomic factors of production, that is, capital and labor, are being rewarded in the national economy.

This paper attempts to test the Ostaszewski hypothesis using Canadian data. In Canada there has been only a slight decrease in DB plan coverage. It is shown that the Ostaszewski theory does not fit the Canadian experience well. Instead, it is argued that pension regulation and tax legislation play a crucial role in pension design and reform. It is also argued that the difference in pension regulation and taxation in Canada versus the United States has directly influenced plan sponsors in considering their pension objectives, costs, and risks. Differences in the proportion of the workforce that is unionized may also be important. The paper concludes that pension regulation and taxation are more important variables than are macroeconomic reward systems in the use of DB versus DC pension plans.