Neyman's test of goodness of fit when the null hypothesis is composite

Abstract

1. The need for a ?smooth? test of goodness of fit has long been felt by statisticians. In response to this J. Neyman (1937) put forward his tests. As he showed, they have many of the properties required of smooth tests. In spite of this they have not come into general use.     

Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

This paper tests for the martingale hypothesis in the stock prices of a group of Asian markets. We use new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs. These are non-parametric finite sample tests, which do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference. This paper also presents Monte Carlo results that these non-parametric tests show superior small sample properties to those of the conventional Chow–Denning test. Both weekly and daily data from 1990 are considered, while moving sub-sample windows are used for the latter to control the sensitivity of the results to a particular sample period. It is found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets have been efficient in the weak-form. The markets of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines have shown no sign of market efficiency, despite financial liberalization measures implemented since the eighties. We have also found evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets have become efficient after the Asian crisis. In general, the results point toward the notion that the pricing efficiency of a market depends on the level of equity market development as well as the regulatory framework conducive of transparent corporate governance.     

Evidence on the use of unverifiable estimates in required goodwill impairment

SFAS 142 requires managers to estimate the current fair value of goodwill to determine goodwill write-offs. In promulgating the standard, the FASB predicted that managers will, on average, use the fair-value estimates to convey private information on future cash flows. The current fair value of goodwill is unverifiable because it depends in part on management??s future actions (including managers?? conceptualization and implementation of firm strategy). Agency theory predicts managers will, on average, use the unverifiable discretion in SFAS 142 consistent with private incentives. We test these hypotheses in a sample of firms with market indications of goodwill impairment. Our evidence, while consistent with some agency-theory based predictions, does not confirm the private information hypothesis.     

Non-parametric frontier estimates of mutual fund performance using C- and L-moments: Some specification tests

There is a burgeoning literature using non-parametric frontier methods to measure mutual fund performance. These articles measure the relationship between the various characteristics (mainly return information and some costs of ownership) of these specialized financial products to establish a ranking using some efficiency measure. We argue in favor of the use of the shortage function, which is compatible with general investor preferences, and question some of the often maintained hypotheses in this line of research. The empirical part employs a large database of US and European mutual funds to offer extensive tests of the underlying modeling assumptions using various frontier estimators.     

The efficient hedging problem for American options

In this paper, we prove the existence of efficient partial hedging strategies for a trader unable to commit the initial minimal amount of money needed to implement a hedging strategy for an American option. The attitude towards the shortfall is modeled in terms of a decreasing and convex risk functional satisfying a lower semicontinuity property with respect to the Fatou convergence of stochastic processes. Some relevant examples of risk functionals are analyzed. Numerical computations in a discrete-time market model are provided. In a Lévy market, an approximating solution is given assuming discrete-time trading.     

Firm life cycle and the disclosure of estimates and judgments in goodwill impairment tests: Evidence from Australia

The goodwill impairment disclosure literature examines the association between firm-and country-level factors and the disclosure of estimates and judgments used in the goodwill impairment test under International Accounting Standard 36. Although the accounting literature provides competing predictions about the relation between firm life cycle and these disclosures, prior studies did not explore the role of firm life cycle in these disclosures. This paper fills in this gap in the literature, and documents that, in Australia, these disclosures vary by life cycle stages and that firm size moderates this association. We, however, find that the differences are more pronounced for some disclosure items than for others.     

Performance effects of multiple control forms in a Lean organization: A quantitative case study in a systems fit approach

The primary objective of this paper is to research and test how control forms function and perform in a Lean organization. In the present quantitative case study, we provide statistical support that Lean is a set of multiple control forms (output, behavioral, and social controls) that complement each other to enhance performance, i.e., it is a control package. Therefore, performance is increased if the average level of control forms is increased, and performance is further increased if the control forms are balanced at the same level representing a complementary effect between them. Moreover, we provide a refinement to the statistical approach in testing systems fit models like ours by supplementing the Euclidian distance with the city-block distance. In this way, we are able to show that the control forms in Lean have a balanced complementary effect on performance, which is distinct from a solely additive effect or no effect. The refined understanding of complementary effect between control forms, the notion of balance, in a Lean organization can be utilized in understanding and testing more general control package theory in other contexts. Our data are archival data spanning multiple years in a dedicated Lean organization. This Scandinavian organization has around 2000 employees and produces small electronic components that are sold to business customers.     

The usefulness of accounting estimates for predicting cash flows and earnings

Accounting estimates and projections potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers a venue to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information. The quality of financial information is, however, compromised by the increasing difficulty of making reliable estimates and forecasts and the frequent managerial misuse of estimates. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, particularly due to the move to fair value accounting, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine the contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of enterprise cash flows and earnings. Our out-of-sample prediction tests indicate that accounting estimates beyond those in working capital items (excluding inventory) do not improve the prediction of cash flows. Estimates do, however, improve the prediction of next year’s earnings, though not of subsequent years’ earnings. We conclude that the usefulness of accounting estimates to investors is limited and provide suggestions for improving the usefulness of estimates.     

Value drivers of corporate eco-efficiency: Management accounting information for the efficient use of environmental resources

Eco-efficiency is oftentimes considered the gold standard for managerial decision making in an environmental context because it seemingly reconciles the efficient use of capital and the efficient use of environmental resources. We challenge this view by disaggregating eco-efficiency to provide an in-depth analysis of corporate eco-efficiency and to identify the drivers of an efficient use of environmental resources. By building on the value-based approach in financial management, we extend the rationale of economic value drivers to develop drivers for the efficient use of environmental resources. We apply this logic to analyze the carbon-efficiency of major car manufacturers worldwide. The analysis clarifies the conceptual relationship between the use of economic and environmental resources by firms. The analysis shows that the drivers of capital efficiency and eco-efficiency are not fully congruent. These findings underpin critical voices that question the supposedly unproblematic link between corporate eco-efficiency and economic value creation. We illustrate that the efficient use of environmental resources is complementary rather than instrumental to capital efficiency. Consequently, the challenge of managing eco-efficiency is to unshackle it from the current capital-oriented domination. The findings provide managerial guidance on the value-creating use of environmental and economic resources. Conceptually, our argument contributes to the debate between critical and managerial perspectives on environmental accounting and helps to address the current standoff between these two camps.     

The bias of tests for a risk premium in forward exchange rates

The pure expectations theory of unbiased forward exchange rates predicts that the slope coefficient in a regression of the change in the spot rate on the difference between the current forward and spot rates should equal unity. In the recent empirical work by Fama, the estimates of this coefficient turn out to be negative in all regressions for nine major industrialized nations. This paper demonstrates that under the expectations theory, the sampling distribution of the regression estimator of this coefficient is upward-biased relative to unity and strongly skewed to the right. The likelihood of negative values is essentially zero. Thus, the estimator is biased in a direction opposite to what is observed. Since the observed estimates lie far out in the thin left-hand tail of the estimator's sampling distribution, the evidence against the hypothesis of unbiased forward rates is much stronger than previously believed.     

On an efficient multiple time step Monte Carlo simulation of the SABR model

In this paper, we will present a multiple time step Monte Carlo simulation technique for pricing options under the Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho model. The proposed method is an extension of the one time step Monte Carlo method that we proposed in an accompanying paper Leitao et al. [Appl. Math. Comput. 2017, 293, 461–479], for pricing European options in the context of the model calibration. A highly efficient method results, with many very interesting and nontrivial components, like Fourier inversion for the sum of log-normals, stochastic collocation, Gumbel copula, correlation approximation, that are not yet seen in combination within a Monte Carlo simulation. The present multiple time step Monte Carlo method is especially useful for long-term options and for exotic options.     

The econometrics of efficient portfolios

It is well known that the standard mean variance approach can be inappropriate when return distributions feature skewness, fat tails or multimodes. This is typically the situation for portfolios including derivatives. In this case, it can be necessary to come back to the basic expected utility approach. In this paper, an efficient portfolio maximizes the expected utility of future wealth. This paper presents an analysis of the efficiency frontier, formed by a set of efficient portfolios corresponding to a parameterized class of utility functions. First, we discuss the estimation of an efficient portfolio and introduce several tests of the efficiency hypothesis, depending on what is known about the utility function and the budget level. Next we analyse the shape of the frontier and develop a procedure for testing the separability of the efficiency frontier into K independent funds. The inference is semi-nonparametric because the return distribution is left unspecified. We illustrate our approach by an application to portfolios including derivatives.     

The tests of a prince

When a CEO takes office, stakeholders dissect his or her intellectual, physical, and emotional capacities as they try to gauge whether the new leader will help them fulfill their aspirations and protect them from trouble. For the heir to a family business, the challenge of turning stakeholders into followers is particularly thorny: He or she must manage many constituencies--family members, directors, senior executives, investors, trade unions--that may not be convinced the successor has earned the right to hold the top spot. Making matters worse, says Lansberg, a family business expert, corporate scions usually ignore or greatly underestimate stakeholders. They don't realize that, particularly after they are formally anointed as CEOs, they must establish their credibility with and authority over these spheres of influence. Smart CEOs understand that their success depends on how well they respond to the iterative testing process that stakeholders use to make judgments about would-be leaders. This article offers a road map for managing the four kinds of tests that constitute iterative testing: Qualifying tests are assessments based on criteria--such as formal education, work experience, and professional awards--that executives can cite as evidence of suitability for the top job. Self-imposed tests are expectations that leaders themselves set and against which they assume stakeholders will measure their performance. Circumstantial tests are unplanned challenges or crises, during which stakeholders can observe the leader coping with the unexpected. And political tests are challenges from rivals who want to enhance their own influence, often by undermining the leader.     

The legitimacy of new assurance providers: Making the cap fit

According to Bourdieu, legitimacy is a scarce symbolic resource that is subject to struggle and (re)negotiation. Focusing on the emergence and operation of the salary cap audit programs in the National Rugby League (NRL) in Australia and Canadian Football League (CFL) in Canada, this article explores the way in which auditors compete for legitimacy in new audit spaces. We highlight the way that capital from intersecting semi-autonomous fields were drawn upon to generate legitimacy for the new roles. We also draw attention to a range of practical strategies, including conscious ingratiation, sanctioning, and fairness appeals, which were mobilised to impose the auditors in their roles, populate the field with new rules and confer a new order. The contrasting case studies reveal the importance of contextual elements and the configuration of the field of power in each case. Implications for the claims of the accounting profession to new audit spaces are discussed.     

The effect of task-technology fit on purchase intention: The moderating role of perceived risks

Electronic commerce to date has experienced rapid growth, and online purchases have become very popular among online consumers. To successfully attract online consumers and benefit from doing so, e-tail product providers should learn about consumers’ purchase intention, its antecedents, and moderators. This study proposes a research model of purchase intention using perceived performance risk and perceived privacy risk as moderators based on a perspective of task-technology fit. In the proposed model, purchase intention is positively influenced by three antecedents: task-technology fit, perceived navigation, and perceived reputation. Each model path is moderated by perceived performance risk and perceived privacy risk, respectively. Empirically testing using a survey of 749 registered members (consumers) from the database of Taiwan’s largest e-learning commercial website confirms that task-technology fit, perceived navigation, and perceived reputation positively influence purchase intention. The relationship between task-technology fit, perceived navigation and purchase intention are significantly moderated by the perceived performance risk and perceived privacy risk. Finally, managerial implications and limitations of our findings are discussed.     

The income elasticity of tax revenue: estimates for income and consumption taxes in the United Kingdom

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in the UK over the period 1989–2000. It shows how budgetary changes, including changes to income‐related deductions, have substantially affected income elasticities. The estimates of consumption tax revenue elasticities show that changes in consumption patterns over time are important. A merit of the approach used here is that elasticity estimates can be calculated readily from official published sources.     

Unbiased estimates of reliability for the truncated gamma distribution

Abstract

This paper derives the minimum variance unbiased estimate of the reliability function associated with the gamma distribution which is right truncated at a known point by using the classical minimum variance unbiased estimation method as outlined and initiated by Basu (1964). The techniques given are general and can be used to estimate not only the probability in the upper tail (reliability) of a distribution but also the probability content of any other region. In the sequel, the distribution of the minimal sufficient statistic, useful in inferential problems, is also obtained. A result of Basu is deduced as a particular case.     

The disclosure policy of the firm in an efficient market

This study analyzes the information content of the financial reports of the management-controlled firm in an efficient market. The firm's disclosure fulfills two roles: it is the basis of the principal-agent contract—stewardship role, and it is an input to the market price informativeness (decision making) role. Optimal disclosure is derived as the outcome of the firm's owner-manager-potential buyer game. The seller and the buyer maintain principal-agent relationships with the manager, who alone observes verifiable and unverifiable information on the value of the firm. The market's price of the firm, as well as the manager's compensation, depend on the firm's reports. The firm's owner directs the manager to report verifiable information, at least, (due to the threat of coalition forming) and stewardship information, at most. The market's reaction to the financial reports depends on the information available to the market prior to their release.     

Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests

This paper provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis in G7 stock price indices using unit root tests which allow for one and two structural breaks in the trend. Of the seven countries we find, at best, evidence of mean reversion in the stock price index of Japan. Thus, overall, our results support the random walk hypothesis. We also consider the implications of the identified structural breaks for movement in stock prices over time. Our main conclusion from this exercise is that the second break in stock prices has had a detrimental effect on movements in stock prices in the G7 countries.     

New estimates of the cost of capital for pharmaceutical firms

Academic researchers, as well as pharmaceutical firms themselves, often use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a firm's cost of capital. But the CAPM implicitly assumes that cash flows follow a random walk. This assumption is inconsistent with our finding that large U.S.-based pharmaceutical firms' cash flow growth rates display either momentum or mean-reversion. We show that growth rate momentum implies: (1) the systematic risk of a project increases monotonically with time to maturity of the cash flows; and (2) longer duration projects require a higher cost of capital. One of the practical implications of our results is that the traditional CAPM underestimates the cost of capital for some pharmaceutical firms by as much as 2.8%. These findings are quite relevant for the policy debate about the high rates of return earned by pharmaceutical companies, which some claim are pure rents and are not necessary to attract investors. Our theoretical and empirical analysis shows that high returns are often required to compensate for the higher systematic risk of long-duration pharmaceutical cash flows.