On the optimum spacing of sample quantiles from a normal distribution. Part I

Abstract

Assume that a large number of observations are made on a normal random variable with the density function where σ σ 0, When the sample is very large the ordinary estimates of µ and a involve considerable computational work. In order to simplify the estimation of µ and/or σ it is sometimes convenient to select a small number of sample quantiles and to use estimates which are linear functions of these sample quantiles, Such a procedure is particularly convenient when the observations occur naturally in order of magnitude, which happens in life testing, for instance, Let      

从首起涉案金额特别巨大的案件看提高风险管理的紧迫性

2009年12月15日,两高出台<关于办理妨害信用卡管理刑事案件具体应用法律若干问题的解释>,将其中多种针对信用卡的犯罪行为界定为"妨害信用卡管理罪".近期,一篇关于<信用卡刷卡透支犯罪密集银行滥发卡成主因>的文章(正义网检察甘报2010年1月19日)引起了社会强烈的反响,也吸引了笔者的注意:这是新的司法解释出台后被披露的首起涉案金额在50万元以上的"数额特别巨大"的涉嫌"妨害信用卡管理罪"的案件.     

The distributions of the first and second order moments,the partial correlation coefficients and the multiple correlation coefficient in samples from a normal multivariate population

Abstract

1. When the frequency function of a statistical variable is known, one of the most important tasks of Theoretical Statistics is to find the frequency functions of some simple functions of this variable. The most important are the first and second order moments in a sample containing a certain number of values of the variable.     

A general formula for the normal mean errors of the coefficients in parabolic least squares graduation

Abstract

A set of observations contains N elements, and the two measures x and y are observed for each element. Searching the ? best value ? of y as dependent on x, we put      

The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles

We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using a recently developed unit root test for non-normal processes based on quantile autoregression inference in semi-parametric and non-parametric settings. The quantile regression approach allows us to directly capture the impact of different magnitudes of shocks that hit the real exchange rate, conditional on its past history, and can detect asymmetric, dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its long run equilibrium. It, therefore provides a detailed mapping of the real exchange rate behaviour, while being a robust alternative to previous unit root tests. The latter is confirmed by a simulation analysis comparing the power of the alternative tests. As concerns the real exchange rate, our results suggest that large shocks tend to induce strong mean reverting tendencies in the exchange rate, with half lives less than one year in the extreme quantiles. Mean reversion is faster when large shocks originate at points of large real exchange rate deviations from the long run equilibrium. However, in the absence of shocks no mean reversion is observed. Finally, we report asymmetries in the dynamic adjustment of the RER.     

A method for calculating changes in regression coefficients and inverse matrices corresponding to changes in the set of available data

Abstract

Extract

When we have made a regression analysis, for instance on the basis of time series, it is often of interest to know how the results would change if we take into account observations made later on. Because it seems that the whole work of solving the normal equations must be made over again, we seldom continue the calculations by taking into account later information. It is, however, easy to find the adjustments required by a method developed in this article. It is possible to get time series showing the development of the regression coefficients without formidable work. We can in this way get a deeper insight in the problem to be studied than by making the regression analysis only once for all. If the purpose of the regression analysis is to obtain formulas to be used for forecasting, time series of regression coefficients give a better starting point than if we only have regression coefficients for a certain period.     

The performance of cross-sectional regression tests of the CAPM with non-zero pricing errors

We show that in the presence of non-zero pricing errors, the Fama–MacBeth (FM) cross-sectional regression test is very likely to either reject the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) when it (almost) holds or accept the model when it grossly fails. We investigate the case when pricing errors are correlated with betas and demonstrate that the test performance depends crucially on the correlation, cross-sectional distribution of betas, and several other parameter values. Even when the CAPM holds exactly (pricing errors are zero) the FM test is equally likely to either reject or accept the model when typical sample sizes are used.     

The dynamics of the free-rider problem in takeovers

We explore the dynamics of a takeover bid. In contrast to precedingmodels, if the initial takeover bid is unsuccessful a raideris allowed to make a new tender offer in order to try and securethe remaining shares. Numerical analysis shows that the raider'stender offer rises over time as be accumulates more shares.The anticipation of a higher tender offer in the future makesshareholders more inclined to hold their shares and forces theraider to offer a higher premium than is predicted by statictheories. As the time between tender offers goes to zero, weshow analytically that the expected profit from engaging ina takeover goes to zero.     

The insolvent subsidiary and liability of the parent corporation in the USA,Argentina, and UNCITRAL

The increasing unacceptability of the concept of entity law and the emergence of the doctrine of enterprise law with respect to many aspects of the legal relationships of parent and subsidiary corporations particularly in insolvent situations is a very interesting issue. This change is very significant because it reflects a growing unwillingness on the part of the courts and legislatures to continue accepting the traditional view of corporate law when it no longer corresponds to the economic reality of the modern business enterprise in a complex industrialized international society. This paper examines the American case law and in particular the decisions that have imposed liability where a company is liable for the obligations of an insolvent subsidiary and by contrast the decisions that have denied liability. The paper also examines the position in Argentina within the Argentine law and the UNCITRAL recommendations in respect of liability issues within corporate groups in insolvency. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children

How much are people willing to forego to be honest, to follow the rules? When people do break the rules, what can standard data sources tell us about their behavior? Standard economic models of crime typically assume that individuals are indifferent to dishonesty, so that they will cheat or lie as long as the expected pecuniary benefits exceed the expected costs of being caught and punished. We investigate this presumption by studying the response to a change in tax reporting rules that made it much more difficult for taxpayers to evade taxes by inappropriately claiming additional dependents. The policy reform induced a substantial reduction in the number of dependents claimed, which indicates that many filers had been cheating before the reform. Yet, the number of filers who availed themselves of this evasion opportunity is dwarfed by the number of filers who passed up substantial tax savings by not claiming extra dependents. By declining the opportunity to cheat, these taxpayers reveal information about their willingness to pay to be honest. In our analysis, we develop a novel method for inferring the characteristics of taxpayers in the absence of audit data. Our findings indicate both that this willingness to pay to be honest is large on average and that it varies significantly across the population of taxpayers.     

The real effects of a new accounting standard: the case of IFRS 15 Revenue from Contracts with Customers

International Financial Reporting Standard 15 (IFRS 15) Revenue from Contracts with Customers has significantly changed the philosophy of revenue recognition, not only to provide a fairer representation of corporate revenues, but also to inhibit the use of revenues for ‘earnings management’ purposes. We provide a framework to analyse the various effects of new and amended accounting standards. Changes in how companies recognise, measure, present and disclose their revenues (accounting effects) can affect how companies and their transactions are understood, both internally and externally (information effects), can change security prices (capital market effects) and can change how companies operate, and their costs and cash flows (real effects). We provide empirical evidence, based on a review of corporate annual reports, comment letters and interviews, on the effects of IFRS 15. We find evidence of accounting, information and, to a lesser extent, real effects, although, outside a few industries, IFRS 15 has had relatively little impact on the recognition and measurement of revenue.     

The scaling limit of superreplication prices with small transaction costs in the multivariate case

Kusuoka (Ann. Appl. Probab. 5:198–221, 1995) showed how to obtain non-trivial scaling limits of superreplication prices in discrete-time models of a single risky asset which is traded at properly scaled proportional transaction costs. This article extends the result to a multivariate setup where the investor can trade in several risky assets. The \(G\)-expectation describing the limiting price involves models with a volatility range around the frictionless scaling limit that depends not only on the transaction costs coefficients, but also on the chosen complete discrete-time reference model.     

The ‘peso problem’ in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets

In this paper we argue that when there is small probability of an event which would cause a large change in an exchange rate, the standard tests for the efficiency of the corresponding forward exchange market are not always valid. The mark pound forward market during the German hyperinflation is cited as an example. Using data from that hyperinflation, we show that an alternative test can sometimes be constructed in cases where the usual tests are not valid. The results reverse the conclusion of earlier researchers that the mark pound forward market during the hyperinflation was not efficient.     

Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio: The case of hedge funds

As recent research highlights that the Sharpe ratio has a decision theoretic foundation even in the case of asymmetric or fat-tailed excess returns and thus is adequate even for the evaluation of hedge funds, this note provides the first Sharpe ratio based performance analysis of the hedge fund market. Furthermore, it addresses the important practical question whether the choice of hypothesis test used to statistically compare Sharpe ratios can influence an investor’s hedge fund selection process. Our key findings are as follows: (i) Only a small fraction of hedge funds in our large dataset can significantly outperform passive investments in corresponding hedge fund indices. (ii) Especially in the presence of autocorrelated or skewed excess returns, the traditional test of Jobson and Korkie, 1981, Memmel, 2003 tends to overstate the number of significant outperformers and thus provides potentially misleading information for investors. Decision makers are advised to use the bootstrap test of Ledoit and Wolf (2008) allowing robust and more reliable inference.     

The initial stages of new service development: A case study from the Greek banking sector

Despite the importance of developing new services by bank institutions, the empirical research that has been undertaken concerning the process of developing new services is rather limited. This is even more obvious as far as the initial stages of the procedure are concerned, despite the fact that many authors have stressed their importance for the success of the whole effort. This paper examines the initial stages of new service development in the case of a leading Greek bank. Nine in-depth interviews were conducted with senior and middle executives. These revealed a different way for developing new services in comparison with the main body of the existing literature. Its main difference is the fact that each business unit is almost exclusively responsible for the development of new services, without collaborating extensively with other departments within the bank.     

Bidding behavior in the longer term refinancing operations of the European Central Bank: Evidence from a panel sample selection model

This paper analyzes individual bidding data of the longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) of the European Central Bank. We investigate how banks’ bidding behavior is related to a series of exogenous variables including collateral costs, interest rate expectations, market volatility and to individual bank characteristics like country of origin, size, and experience. A specific feature of these auctions is that the number and composition of bidders varies over time. Therefore, we estimate panel sample selection models to control for a bank’s endogenous participation decision. We find that bidding strategies depend on the banks’ attributes. Yet, different bidding behavior generally does not translate into differences concerning bidder success. There is evidence for the winner’s curse effect in LTROs indicating a common value component in banks’ demand for longer term refinancing.     

The role of metaphors in the development of technologies. The case of the artificial intelligence

Technology plays a prominent role in configuring the way we live and work. In this paper we go further and think that it is a first level driver in the configuration of our deepest perceptions and has a paramount influence on shaping our worldviews and metaphors, though this aspect goes unnoticed for most of the population.In this paper we analyze how metaphors take action in the characterization of technologies, mainly emerging technologies, and in their evolution, and furthermore the impact of technologies and metaphors on the way we perceive our daily life. We analyze metaphors underlying brain nature and artificial intelligence, raising the connections between them and showing how metaphors in one of these fields impact on the way we understand the other. This fact has important consequences, for instance it conditions the evolution of computational systems, and we propose two scenarios for this evolution.This paper relies on the conceptual model and classification of metaphors proposed by Lakoff and Johnson in “Metaphors we live by”, from the orientational metaphors that show values and mantras, to the deepest structural metaphors that are reconfiguring how life is conceived. It also relies on CLA (Causal Layered Analysis) and to its reference book “CLA 2.0” in order to insert this analysis in a wider and future oriented framework and to analyze scenarios.