Separation of small and large claims on the basis of collective models

This paper is inspired by two papers of Riegel who proposed to consider the paid and incurred loss development of the individual claims and to use a filter in order to separate small and large claims and to construct loss development squares for the paid or incurred small or large claims and for the numbers of large claims. We show that such loss development squares can be constructed from collective models for the accident years. Moreover, under certain assumptions on these collective models, we show that a development pattern exists for each of these loss development squares, which implies that various methods of loss reserving can be used for prediction and that the chain ladder method is a natural method for the prediction of future numbers of large claims.     

Jump Spillover in International Equity Markets

In this article we study jump spillover effects between a numberof country equity indexes. In order to identify the latent historicaljumps of each index, we use a Bayesian approach to estimatea jump-diffusion model on each index. We look at the simultaneousjump intensities of pairs of countries and the probabilitiesthat jumps in large countries cause jumps or unusually largereturns in other countries. In all cases, we find significantevidence of jump spillover. In addition, we find that jump spilloverseems to be particularly large between countries that belongto the same regions and have similar industry structures, whereas,interestingly, the sample correlations between the countrieshave difficulties in capturing the jump spillover effects.     

商业银行操作风险的统计特征及其资本模拟实证

本文通过对近年我国发生的商业银行操作风险事件的统计,得出了我国商业银行操作风险的重要特征,包括：内部欺诈及其导致的操作风险损失所占比重最大,操作风险资本的顺经济周期效应表现明显,欺诈性操作风险与地区法治水平呈现背离走势等.在对操作风险事件各损失类型发生的频率和损失金额分布进行拟合的基础上,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对我国商业银行操作风险资本进行10 231次模拟计算,结果显示,在置信水平为99.9%的条件下,我国整个商业银行业在拨备了3 163亿元的操作风险资本以后,大致可以抵御150年所遭遇的全部操作风险损失带来的冲击.     

商业银行操作风险的统计特征及其资本模拟实证

本文通过对近年我国发生的商业银行操作风险事件的统计,得出了我国商业银行操作风险的重要特征,包括:内部欺诈及其导致的操作风险损失所占比重最大,操作风险资本的顺经济周期效应表现明显,欺诈性操作风险与地区法治水平呈现背离走势等.在对操作风险事件各损失类型发生的频率和损失金额分布进行拟合的基础上,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对我国商业银行操作风险资本进行10 231次模拟计算,结果显示,在置信水平为99.9%的条件下,我国整个商业银行业在拨备了3 163亿元的操作风险资本以后,大致可以抵御150年所遭遇的全部操作风险损失带来的冲击.     

The role of stochastic volatility and return jumps: reproducing volatility and higher moments in the KOSPI 200 returns dynamics

This paper investigates the role of stochastic volatility and return jumps in reproducing the volatility dynamics and the shape characteristics of the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) 200 returns distribution. Using efficient method of moments and reprojection analysis, we find that stochastic volatility models, both with and without return jumps, capture return dynamics surprisingly well. The stochastic volatility model without return jumps, however, cannot fully reproduce the conditional kurtosis implied by the data. Return jumps successfully complement this gap. We also find that return jumps are essential in capturing the volatility smirk effects observed in short-term options.

理赔风险防范探析

现阶段,在公司管理中,理赔问题凸现出来,集中体现在理赔运行和管理现状难以适应公司科学发展的要求,急待进行改革创新。保险覆盖面的不断扩大、客户服务领域的拓宽对理赔线服务业务发展的能力提出了严峻的挑战,公司对保险主业盈利能力的要求和保险市场生态环境的亟待改善要求理赔线进一步提升成本管控的能力,金融企业集团化的发展趋势和资源整合力度的加强要求理赔线强化对资源的控制和整合能力,提升核心能力、把握相关关系、明确理赔线定位,在管理模式上有所创新,同时提升专业化能力,加强全流程控制与电子化支持,建立专业化理赔队伍,提升客户服务能力,与各产品线协同解决理赔风险。     

An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential equation systems. With offset in the explicit solution, we establish the conditional distribution of the future state variables which allows for exact simulation. Using exact simulation, we illustrate how simulation of the system can be improved compared to a standard Euler scheme. In order to analyze the effect of choosing the exact simulation scheme over the traditional Euler approximation scheme frequently applied by practitioners, we carry out a simulation study. We show that due to its recursive nature, the Euler scheme becomes computationally expensive as it requires a small step size in order to minimize discretization errors. Using our exact simulation scheme, one is able to cut these computational costs significantly and obtain even better forecasts. As probability density tail behavior is key to expected investment portfolio performance, we further conduct a risk analysis in which we compare well-known risk measures under both schemes. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis and find that the relative performance of the two schemes depends on the chosen model parameter estimates.     

Moments of renewal shot-noise processes and their applications

In this paper, we study the family of renewal shot-noise processes. The Feynmann–Kac formula is obtained based on the piecewise deterministic Markov process theory and the martingale methodology. We then derive the Laplace transforms of the conditional moments and asymptotic moments of the processes. In general, by inverting the Laplace transforms, the asymptotic moments and the first conditional moments can be derived explicitly; however, other conditional moments may need to be estimated numerically. As an example, we develop a very efficient and general algorithm of Monte Carlo exact simulation for estimating the second conditional moments. The results can be then easily transformed to the counterparts of discounted aggregate claims for insurance applications, and we apply the first two conditional moments for the actuarial net premium calculation. Similarly, they can also be applied to credit risk and reliability modelling. Numerical examples with four distribution choices for interarrival times are provided to illustrate how the models can be implemented.