Insurance demand and country risks: A nonlinear panel data analysis

This paper investigates the impact of country risks, including political, financial, and economic risks, on the income elasticity of insurance demand. Using the panel smooth transition regression model, we find that there is a significant regime-switching effect concerning the impact of country risks on the income elasticity of insurance demand. A full-sample analysis shows that the income elasticity of insurance demand decreases when country risks diminish. In a subsample analysis based on income level, legal origin, and restriction on banks' participation in insurance activities, we find that the elasticity diminishes in general when economic risk drops. When political risk is lower, the elasticity decreases in countries with high-income, common law origin, and insurance activities permitted by banks, whereas a clear pattern cannot be identified in the case of financial risk.     

A simplified portfolio analysis of the long-run demand for money in Australia

The paper derives the form of a money demand equation when money is explicitly considered as one element of a limited set of financial assets. The results from estimation of the portfolio model are compared with those from the typical single equation form and are superior in a number of respects. In contrast with the traditional model the impact equations of the portfolio model provide no evidence of serial correlation or parameter instability. Systems estimation provides for a much faster speed of adjustment than is in evidence with the traditional model. Estimation by ridge regression procedures to accomodate collinearity among the regressors further enhances this speed of adjustment.     

An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect

Devastating natural catastrophes lead to severe damages to buildings and infrastructure which have to be eliminated in the aftermath of the event. Thus, the demand for skilled labor and materials increase sharply which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. This interdependency is referred to as the “Demand Surge” effect. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect based on data about 176 natural catastrophes in the US provided by EM-DAT. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. The contribution is a short summary of a working paper presented at the annual meeting of the German Insurance Science Association (DVfVW) in Berlin in March 2013.     

Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy

This paper combines qualitative information from the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey with micro-data on loans for the participating Italian banks to assess the role of supply and demand factors in lending to enterprises developments, with a focus on the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Both demand and supply have played a relevant role, in the whole sample period and during the crisis. A counterfactual exercise shows that the effect of supply factors on the growth of lending was strongest after the Lehman collapse. On average, over the crisis period the negative effect on the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the panel banks’ lending to enterprises can be estimated in a range of 2.3-3.1 percentage points, depending on the specification. About one fourth of the total supply effect can be attributed to costs related to the banks’ balance sheet position, the rest to their perception of credit risk.     

The demand for stocks: an analysis of IPO auctions

We analyze a unique dataset that includes the full demand schedulesof 27 Israeli IPOs that were conducted as nondiscriminatory(uniform price) auctions. To the best of our knowledge, thisis the first time the whole demand schedule for any asset isdescribed. The demand schedules are relatively flat around theauction clearing price: The average elasticity is 27. The elasticityis low when the return distribution contains a large uniquecomponent. We also find a significant average abnormal returnof 4.5% on the first trading day and a positive correlationbetween the abnormal return and the elasticity of demand.     

商业银行CRM的需求分析和系统实现

CRM(CustomerRelationshipManagement,客户关系管理)的定义可谓众说纷纭,究其实质,CRM是一种以客户为中心的管理理念。CRM以信息技术为手段,不断地管理和改善市场、销售、客户服务等与客户关系有关的业务流程,并提高各个环节的自动化程度,使企业内部和客户之间达到信息共享,从而提高客户的满意度和忠诚度。一、商业银行CRM的基本理念商业银行CRM是运用现代信息技术和市场营销理论,对银行和客户关系进行重新界定的一种理论,也是银行与客户全面接触的统一技术平台和智能服务系统。1.商业银行CRM的核心商业银行CRM的核心是以客户为中…     

A pure martingale dual for multiple stopping

In this paper, we present a dual representation for the multiple stopping problem, hence multiple exercise options. As such, it is a natural generalization of the method in Rogers (Math. Finance 12:271–286, 2002) and Haugh and Kogan (Oper. Res. 52:258–270, 2004) for the standard stopping problem for American options. We term this representation a ‘pure martingale’ dual as it is solely expressed in terms of an infimum over martingales rather than an infimum over martingales and stopping times as in Meinshausen and Hambly (Math. Finance 14:557–583, 2004). For the multiple dual representation, we propose Monte Carlo simulation methods which require only one degree of nesting.     

Country risk analysis: The demand and supply of sovereign loans

Tis paper develops a general model of the demand and supply of loans made to the public sector of a third-world country. Its objective is to identify the critical variables of demand and supply and to discuss the current international financial situation within this framework. On the supply side, these loans are treated as part of an optimal portfolio decision while the demand for external loans by a lesser developed country is based on a life-cycle hypothesis of development. After conditions for market equilibrium are established, credit rationing, instability, and default probabilities are discussed.     

从供需角度看我国商业银行人民币理财业务的发展

决定人民币理财业务发展的基础力量是市场需求和供给。国内商业银行人民币理财业务从火爆热捧到理性调整再到热销回归的发展轨迹正是供需双方相互作用的反应。文章从需求和供给的角度来分析国内商业银行人民币理财业务的发展,寻找支撑人民币理财业务发展的需求动力,总结我国商业银行人民币理财业务的供给特征,并对今后我国商业银行人民币理财业务的发展提出建议。     

The effect of automated teller machines on demand deposits: An empirical analysis

The banking system has experienced rapid and significant technological changes in recent years, including automated teller machines (ATMs), automated clearing houses, point of sale systems, telephone transfers, automatic billpayer accounts, and credit cards. The total effect of these innovations on money demand has been the subject of some empirical research; however, the individual effect of most of these innovations has not been estimated. This article attempts to partially bridge the gap in the empirical literature by providing empirical evidence relating to the effect of ATMs on demand deposits.I would like to thank, without implicating, S. M. Miller and an anonymous referee of this journal for helpful comments.     

The precautionary demand for money: A rigorous foundation

Consumers' demand for money to hold is shown rigorously to be related to possible but uncertain purchase opportunities rather than to total consumption (income) or to the variability of bond yields. A formal model of consumers' demand for precautionary balances is analyzed. It implies that cash balances demanded will be changed by different amounts in response to equivalent changes in the rates of time preference and inflation. This perhaps explains recent instability in money demand estimates.     

A note extending Tobin's inventory demand for money model

This paper is a modification and extension of Tobin's inventory demand for money model. The optimal financial management behavior of both individuals receiving wage income at discrete intervals and firms making such wage payments is analyzed within the general Tobin framework. In both cases it is assumed that the portfolio decision-maker takes into account the interest income generated by investment and includes it in the expenditure plan. The compounding of interest is allowed, and the problem is solved in its precise, integer from rather than approximated by a continuous treatment. The basic strategy of evenly spaced transactions proves optimal here as in the Tobin model, but the decision as to the number of transactions to make per interval is considerably more complicated in this version of the problem.     

A comment on the foundations of the precautionary demand for money

The model of the precautionary demand for money presented by Plessner and Reid (1980) is critically examined. It is shown that households derive no benefit from unscheduled consumption (in the model in question) and will therefore choose not to hold precautionary balances. Positive balances were obtained only by ensuring that scheduled consumption was chosen sub-optimally. However, this note confirms the Plessner-Reid hypothesis by explicitly modelling the benefits of unscheduled consumption.     

Short-run money demand

The conventional wisdom holds that the short-run demand for money is unstable. This paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for M1 in U.S. data from 1959 through 1993. The approach follows previous work in interpreting long-run money demand as a cointegrating relation, and it uses Goldfeld's partial-adjustment model to interpret short-run dynamics. The key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on “near monies”—the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for M1. This choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand; in particular, the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies.     

Financing seasonal demand

This paper identifies seasonal firms and their peak seasons to provide empirical evidence of the approach these firms take to finance seasonal operations. The seasonal use of funds, which builds before seasonal revenue, is largely financed with transitory sources of credit, such as credit lines, trade credit, and commercial paper. Permanent financing is used only moderately to meet seasonal needs. However, both weak credit market conditions and firm-level financial constraints limit the ability of seasonal firms to use debt as transitory financing. These frictions result in a partial shift to permanent financing but reduce the seasonal use of funds overall.     

A note on increased probability of loss and the demand for insurance

It is shown that the effect of increased probability of loss on the demand for insurance depends on whether both insured and insurer are aware of the change. When both insurer and insured share the same beliefs about the probability of loss (symmetric information), an increase in the loss probability may lead risk-averse agents to demandless insurance.     

Expected income in the demand for money: An ‘unobservable variable’ analysis

A demand for money function is specified with unobservable expected (or permanent) income as one of the explanatory variables. The model is formulated within the latent or unobservable framework and considers two cases. First, where there is a simple ‘measurement error’ relationship between latent and actual magnitudes, and second where expected income is assumed generated by a more dynamic mechanism. In both cases a consumption function with permanent income as an explanatory variable is incorporated into the model to supply the information necessary to identify the structural parameters. Identification of the models is discussed and a suitable estimation procedure developed and applied to time series data for the United Kingdom.