Markov Chains and Regression toward the Mean

Using the theory of stationary Markov chains, we uncover a previously unknown property of the behavior of betas. Specifically, if the cross-sectional distribution of betas is stationary over time, then the set of firms that remain in an arbitrarily chosen beta interval between one period and the next will not regress toward the mean. This surprising result occurs in spite of the well-known fact that the set of all the firms in the interval will exhibit the regression tendency. Our empirical tests indicate that betas behave in remarkable accordance with this prediction.     

Precautionary saving and partially observed income

I propose an intertemporal precautionary saving model in which the agent's labor income is subject to (possibly correlated) shocks with different degrees of persistence and volatility. However, he only observes his total income, not individual components. I show that partial observability of individual components of income gives rise to additional precautionary saving due to estimation risk, the error associated with estimating individual components of income. This additional precautionary saving is higher, when estimation risk is greater. Compared with a precautionary agent who is otherwise identical, but ignores estimation risk, the rational agent consumes less at the beginning of his life, but consumes more later, because of larger wealth accumulated from savings for estimation risk. The utility cost of ignoring estimation risk is also quantified in closed form.     

The estimation of mortality and other decremental probabilities

Abstract

The standard actuarial methods of estimating the age-specific one-year probabilities of death in a given community were developed—for the most part, many years ago-with large bodies of observations in mind. Although the familiar “exposed to risk” procedure is known to provide unbiased estimates only when a rather dubious assumption is made about the progression of the instantaneous death-rate (the force of mortality) over the year of age (Cantelli, 1914) it is still the most widely used method of estimation. This is partly because the age-to-age increment in human mortality is relatively small—so that assumptions about its mathematical form are unimportant—and partly because suggested methods of estimation based on more “realistic” assumptions are usually laborious to apply to thousands of observations.     

Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects

Hidden Markov models have been applied in many different fields, including econometrics and finance. However, the lion's share of the investigated models concerns Markovian mixtures of Gaussian distributions. We present an extension to conditional t-distributions, including models with unequal distribution types in different states. It is shown that the extended models, on the one hand, reproduce various stylized facts of daily returns better than the common Gaussian model. On the other hand, robustness to outliers and persistence of the visited states increases significantly.     

More long-term care for better healthcare and vice versa: investigating the mortality effects of interactions between these public sectors

Public healthcare (HC) and long-term care (LTC) sectors coexist in several OECD countries. Economic interactions between these two sectors have been found to occur even in the absence of formal integrated care arrangements. We investigate whether and how interactions between the HC and LTC sectors impact mortality. We analyse data on English local authorities in 2014–15 and employ a sequence of cross-sectional econometric specifications based on instrumental variables to identify the effect that LTC expenditure has on mortality through its interactions with HC services, and vice versa. Our findings suggest that any effect of LTC expenditure on mortality is likely to run through the HC sector by allowing the latter to reallocate resources from less to more effective services. A 10 per cent increase in LTC expenditure per user can indirectly save, on average, about three lives per million individuals. In addition, on top of the known HC direct mortality effects, we find that investing an extra £42 million in the HC sector – equivalent to a 10 per cent increase in HC expenditure per capita for the average local authority – can decrease the use of LTC services, producing around £7.8 million of savings. These can generate mortality effects if invested in services having an impact on mortality.     

An analyst by any other surname: Surname favorability and market reaction to analyst forecasts

We find that forecast revisions by analysts with more favorable surnames elicit stronger market reactions. The effect is stronger among firms with lower institutional ownership and for analysts with non-American first names. Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and France and Germany's opposition to the Iraq War, revisions by analysts with Middle Eastern and French or German surnames, respectively, generated weaker market reaction. Surname favorability is not associated with forecast quality, but it has complementary effects with forecast performance on analysts’ career outcomes. Surname favorability mitigates under-reaction to forecast revisions. These findings are distinct from the effects of ethnic, cultural proximity, or in-group bias.     

Comparison of mortality outcomes derived from survival curves calculated by the mean covariates and corrected group prognosis methods

As creators of mortality abstracts, we assume the mortality and survival curves from source articles have been created by the appropriate methodology. Two methods can be used to generate adjusted curves--the mean of covariates and the group prognosis methods. The use of the former, although simple to implement, may be mathematically problematic. A comparative mortality analysis is created from a study population using curves adjusted by both methods. For this cohort, utilizing data from direct measurement of enlarged survival curves produced no difference in mortality outcomes. Small differences in percent cumulative survival derived from each method do not translate into important differences in mortality ratios and excess deaths.     

Reputation and performance fee effects on portfolio choice by investment advisers

This paper examines a two-period model of investment management. Investors reallocate their wealth between two mutual funds managed by different investment advisers after observing the performance of each adviser in the first period. A reputation effect causes one adviser to choose a portfolio in the first period that is extreme given his private information about asset returns. Extreme portfolios are costly for risk-averse advisers and investors because mutual funds are riskier than in one-period or single-adviser settings. Adoption of a performance fee mitigates undesirable reputation effects and results in superior ex ante payoffs to investors.     

Valuation effects of domestic and international seasoned equity offerings by Canadian cross-listed firms

This paper finds significant differences in the price impacts around the announcement date for domestic and international seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by Canadian issuers cross-listed on US trade venues. Important determinants that differ by US cross-listing trade venue are identified for the price impacts associated with domestic and international SEOs. The significant determinants are variables that proxy for positive private and public firm information for the domestic SEOs of issuers cross-listed on NASDAQ, and are mainly variables that proxy for negative private information for the domestic SEOs of issuers cross-listed on the NYSE/AMEX. Good and bad news affect domestic and international SEOs favorably and unfavorably, respectively. The only common determinant for the domestic and international SEOs and for domestic SEOs for both groupings of US listing venues is whether or not the issue is primary.     

The effects of multimedia-induced affective states on recall and decision-making by individual investors

Kida et al. [Account., Organ., Soc. 23 (1998) 451.] found that affective reactions to financial data are easier to recall than the data itself, and that memories for numerical data are often reconstructed to match affective responses. They also demonstrated that investment decisions are influenced by affective responses to financial data. Given that multimedia has become an integral component of financial disclosures, and that multimedia is known to create affective responses, potential exists for multimedia presented in conjunction with financial data to alter recall patterns and influence decision-making. This study involves two experiments where subjects analyze financial data and affective states are manipulated with multimedia presentations peripherally related to the financial data. In the first study, memory reconstruction patterns of subjects receiving multimedia that induces either a positive or negative affective state are compared. The second study investigates the effects of media-induced moods on investment decisions, where a negative or positive affective state is induced with multimedia during analysis of one company, and no affective state is induced during subsequent evaluation of alternative companies. The principal findings from this research are: (1) Multimedia presented in conjunction with financial data can cause users to reconstruct memories to match the affective responses to the multimedia; (2) Multimedia-induced affective responses influence investment decisions; and (3) The recall and decision-making of individual investors with a high need for cognition are not influenced to the same extent by multimedia as the recall and decision-making of investors with a low need for cognition.     

Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility

We find a herding tendency among both amateur and professional investors and conclude that the propensity to herd is lower in the professionals. These results are obtained both when we consider herding into individual stocks and herding into stocks in general. Herding depends on the firm’s systematic risk and size, and the professionals are less sensitive to these variables. The differences between the amateurs and the professionals may be attributable to the latter’s superior financial training. Most of the results are consistent with the theory that herding is information-based. We also find that the herding behavior of the two groups is a persistent phenomenon, and that it is positively and significantly correlated with stock market returns’ volatility. Finally, herding, mainly by amateurs, causes market volatility in the Granger causality sense.     

A study of data-driven momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market by functional data analysis

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We apply a functional data analysis approach to decompose the cross-sectional Fama–French three-factor model residuals in the Chinese stock...