Forecasting volatility in GARCH models with additive outliers

We model the volatility of a single risky asset using a multifactor (matrix) Wishart affine process, recently introduced in finance by Gourieroux and Sufana. As in standard Duffie and Kan affine models the pricing problem can be solved through the Fast Fourier Transform of Carr and Madan. A numerical illustration shows that this specification provides a separate fit of the long-term and short-term implied volatility surface and, differently from previous diffusive stochastic volatility models, it is possible to identify a specific factor accounting for the stochastic leverage effect, a well-known stylized fact of the FX option markets analysed by Carr and Wu.     

The Role of Fair Value Accounting in Promoting Government Accountability

A key factor to improve the financial accountability of governments is the existence of a set of generally accepted financial reporting of standards, such as IPSAS issued by the IFAC, which seek to enhance information transparency. This paper examines the capability of fair value accounting to improve, through financial transparency, government accountability, analysing the possible effect of the implementation of this measurement basis on understandability, comparability and timeliness—three qualitative characteristics linked to the relevance of financial reporting. This paper further considers whether the difficulties involved in achieving FV estimations could affect government financial accountability. The findings indicate that FVA implementation could enhance accountability by improving understandability, comparability and timeliness in governmental financial reporting, although the use of objective measures to estimate the FV of assets is fundamental. In addition, the type of assets and the existence of an active market are crucial to improving the comparability of financial statements under FVA, whereas improving timeliness could be limited by the possibility of estimating FV measures in‐house.     

An options-based approach to evaluating the risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assume a significant amount of interest and prepayment risk and all of the credit risk for about half of the $8 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market. Their hybrid government-private status, and the perception that they are too big to fail, make them a potentially large, but largely unaccounted for, risk to the federal government. Measuring the size and risk of this liability is technically difficult, but important for the debate over the appropriate regulation of these institutions. Here we take an options pricing approach to evaluating these costs and risks. Under the base case assumptions, the estimated value of the guarantees is $7.9 billion over 10 years, with a combined .5 percent value at risk of $122 billion. We evaluate the sensitivity of these estimates to various modeling assumptions, and also to the regulatory regime, including forbearance policies and capital requirements. The analysis highlights the benefits, but also the challenges, of taking an options-based approach to evaluating the value of federal credit guarantees.     

Quadratic hedging in affine stochastic volatility models

We determine the variance-optimal hedge for a subset of affine processes including a number of popular stochastic volatility models. This framework does not require the asset to be a martingale. We obtain semiexplicit formulas for the optimal hedging strategy and the minimal hedging error by applying general structural results and Laplace transform techniques. The approach is illustrated numerically for a Lévy-driven stochastic volatility model with jumps as in Carr et al. (Math Finance 13:345–382, 2003).      

Change analysis of a dynamic copula for measuring dependence in multivariate financial data

This paper proposes a new approach to measure dependencies in multivariate financial data. Data in finance and insurance often cover a long time period. Therefore, the economic factors may induce some changes within the dependence structure. Recently, two methods have been proposed using copulas to analyse such changes. The first approach investigates changes within the parameters of the copula. The second determines the sequence of copulas using moving windows. In this paper we take into account the non-stationarity of the data and analyse the impact of (1) time-varying parameters for a copula family, and (2) the sequence of copulas, on the computations of the VaR and ES measures. We propose tests based on conditional copulas and the goodness-of-fit to decide the type of change, and further give the corresponding change analysis. We illustrate our approach using the Standard & Poor 500 and Nasdaq indices in order to compute risk measures using the two previous methods.     

Usefulness of comprehensive income reporting in Canada

In January 2005 the Canadian Accounting Standards Board (AcSB) issued three new accounting standards that require Canadian firms to mark-to-market certain financial assets and liabilities and recognize the holding gains and losses related to these items as other comprehensive income or as part of net income. The Board’s objectives for issuing the new standards are (i) to harmonize Canadian GAAP with US and International GAAP, (ii) to enhance the transparency and usefulness of financial statements, and (iii) to keep pace with changes in accounting standards in other countries that are moving towards fair value accounting. This paper investigates empirically whether requiring Canadian companies to report comprehensive income and its components provides the securities market with incremental value-relevant information over the traditional historical-cost earnings approach.Previous empirical studies provide mixed evidence on the value relevance of other comprehensive income and its components. This mixed evidence may be attributed partially to the use of as if methodology to construct an ex-ante measure of other comprehensive income prior to the implementation of SFAS 130, which introduces measurement error. In contrast, this study uses actual data on other comprehensive income for a sample of Canadian firms cross-listed in the US in the period 1998–2003. We find evidence that available-for-sale and cash flow hedges components are significantly associated with price and market returns. We also find that aggregate comprehensive income is more strongly associated (in terms of explanatory power) with both stock price and returns compared to net income. However, we find that net income is a better predictor of future net income relative to comprehensive income. Our findings suggest that mandating all Canadian firms to adopt the new accounting standards is expected to enhance the usefulness of financial statements. Our findings, therefore, should be of interest to Canadian accounting policy makers as they provide ex-ante evidence on the potential usefulness of mandating firms to report comprehensive income and the components of other comprehensive income in their financial statements.     

The Relationship between Fair Value,Market Value,and Efficient Markets*

This paper proposes that an assumption of reasonable market efficiency is at the essence of the relevance of fair value for financial reporting purposes. The paper's examination of this proposal begins with a review of recent academic literature on market efficiency, and on evidence of inefficiencies and their implications for the ability of the efficient market hypothesis to explain what market prices represent. It concludes that there is wide acceptance in this literature that a reasonable level of efficiency can generally be presumed to exist in active, well‐regulated capital markets. The paper examines the essential attributes of a reasonably efficient market for fair value measurement purposes, and some basic implications for its reliable estimation. This is done in comparison with the provisions of the fair value measurement standard of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) (Statement of Financial Accounting Standards [SFAS] No. 157). It is concluded that the concept of reasonable market efficiency could provide a sound conceptual framework for defining fair value that is founded in real, observable market prices. It is demonstrated that, in contrast, SFAS No. 157 does not provide a clear, unequivocal concept of fair value, and that it permits estimates of fair value that have no demonstrable basis in real, observable market prices. Nevertheless, it appears that arguments typically put forward by the International Accounting Standards Board and the FASB for the relevance of fair value for financial reporting purposes do imply a presumption of reasonably efficient markets.     

Changing the Concepts to Justify the Standards*

In this paper, I discuss the current project to converge the IASB and FASB conceptual frameworks, specifically efforts to purge the converged framework of concepts that hinder the promotion of balance sheet valuation using fair values. I discuss why I believe these efforts to be misguided, based on how investors who analyze financial statements employ accounting information. I focus on stewardship, reliability, and earnings — terms either demoted in importance or at risk of being eliminated in the framework convergence project. I explain their salience to financial statement users and argue against their deletion or demotion.     

How have US banks adopted the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Level 3 fair value disclosure rules?

We examine how banks have complied with the Financial Accounting Standards Board's disclosure rules on Level 3 recurring fair value measurements. We document widespread noncompliance with the basic disclosure requirements. We also find that the noncompliant banks are smaller in size and are associated with lower audit quality, lower institutional ownership and less effective internal controls. Our results should be of use to regulators, auditors and audit committees in the United States, Australia and other countries for assessing the likelihood of noncompliance with fair value disclosure rules and improving the quality of fair value disclosures provided to investors.     

Asset value management in the Portuguese real estate sector

This paper analyzes whether real estate investment fund managers use asset valuation discretion strategically to achieve financial reporting objectives. Portuguese real estate investment funds represent a unique opportunity to investigate executive behavior regarding accounting choice, as fund managers may choose to use historical cost, fair value or a mixed system (historical cost with internal revaluations) to value fund properties. We also investigate the factors that influence this strategic behavior. Empirical results confirm that fund managers manage asset valuations in order to avoid net asset value declines, particularly in a period of financial distress. We also observe that funds with a higher level of past unconditional conservatism are more likely to manage asset values. With respect to corporate governance issues, we conclude that audit quality reduces managerial discretion and that the conflicts that may arise between fund management company shareholders and fund participants due to management fees do not seem to have impact on fund managers’ opportunistic behavior.