评新《保险法》新增不可抗辩条款的修法价值与建议

2009年2月28日,新《保险法》颁布,其引入了不可抗辩条款。这一条款不仅能够规范保险人行为,保护投保方利益,更能适应国际惯例,提高我国保险人的竞争能力,迎接外资保险的挑战。本文回顾了不可抗辩条款的历史进程,并对其修法价值进行了陈述,最后立足国情,对不可抗辩条款在实际操作中提出了一些的建议。     

北京市城镇无保障老人养老保险问题研究

近年来,城镇无保障老年人的养老问题日益受到政府和社会的关注。全国已有部分省市对城镇无保障老年人提供了一定的养老补贴待遇,但是,不同省市采用补贴形式各不相同,补贴标准也有一定的差异。目前,北京市城镇无保障老人主要是通过福利养老金制度覆盖,对满足年龄条件的无保障老人,每人每月都可以领取230元财政补贴。那么,在政府财力有限的条件下,如何提高无保障老人收入水平?本文提出了建立无保障老人个人缴费与政府补贴相结合的新制度,并依据2007年北京市城镇无保障老人调查数据,构建北京市无保障老人养老保险收支模型,计算并预测了未来10年的养老保险收支情况,通过这一模式表明,政府财政补贴在适度提高的前提下,无保障老人养老待遇会有较大幅度增加,而且该模式运行的稳定性较强。     

基于广义线性模型的我国投资型寿险产品退保率实证研究

基于某一款万能险产品38个月的退保率样本数据,结合我国寿险业务的实际情况,利用广义线性模型对影响退保率的主要因素进行了分析。研究结果显示,源于消费者在购买保险的经济环境方面的差异,国外的退保率模型在我国并不适用。从我国实际情况出发,通过选择合适的解释变量,构建了新退保率模型,并分析了各解释变量对退保率的影响。     

人寿保险公司应税所得确认模式的国际比较

目前,世界上主要有三种确认人寿保险公司应税所得的模式,即以会计报告为基础的主流模式、以英国为代表的I-E模式、以新西兰为代表的I-E U模式。在不同模式的选择上不存在一个真理性的客观标准,从不同目的出发、在不同的约束条件和各具差异的税制传统下存在不同的选择。     

Some comments on the inverse problem for thinned renewal processes

Abstract

The following problem is considered: for which p ∈ (0, 1) and completely monotone functions g is g/[p+(1-p)g] completely monotone? This problem is shown to be equivalent to the inverse problem for thinned renewal processes. Some applications to gamma renewal processes are also discussed.     

转变发展方式 推动寿险业务又好又快发展

本文在回顾我国人身寿险业务发展概况的基础上,总结了中国人寿保险公司发展的几点经验：一是提高可持续发展能力;二是提高核心竞争力;三是提高效益;四是全方位满足消费者需求;五是坚持科学发展以人为本。同时进一步深入探讨了推动人保寿险又好又快发展的措施。     

寿险营销员离职倾向影响因素分析——以山东省寿险营销员为样本

离职倾向是预测员工离职行为最有效的指标。本文采用随机抽样的方式,选取了山东省6家寿险公司,现场发放问卷,对营销员的人际关系、薪酬福利、发展前景、工作满意度、流动限制等方面进行调查统计。构建寿险营销员离职倾向影响因素模型,运用因子分析、回归分析方法,对收回的问卷,从离职倾向的角度进行了深入分析。分析结果表明,发展前景对寿险营销员离职倾向影响最显著,其次是流动限制、薪酬福利、工作满意度和人际关系。为改善寿险营销员高流失率问题,需要从这几个方面统筹考虑。     

Analytic option pricing and risk measures under a regime-switching generalized hyperbolic model with an application to equity-linked insurance

Option pricing and managing equity linked insurance (ELI) require the proper modeling of stock return dynamics. Due to the long duration nature of equity-linked insurance products, a stock return model must be able to deal simultaneously with the preceding stylized facts and the impact of market structure changes. In response, this article proposes stock return dynamics that combine Lévy processes in a regime-switching framework. We focus on a non-Gaussian, generalized hyperbolic distribution. We use the most popular linked equity of ELIs, the S&P 500 index, as an example. The empirical study verifies that the proposed regime-switching generalized hyperbolic (RSGH) model gives the best fit to data. In investigating the effects of stock return modeling on pricing and risk management for financial contracts, we derive the characteristic function, embedded option price, and risk measure of equity-linked insurance analytically. More importantly, we demonstrate that the regime-switching generalized hyperbolic (RSGH) model is realistic and can meet the stylistic facts of stock returns, which in turn can be employed in option pricing and risk management decisions.     

基于KMV模型对我国上市保险公司的信用风险度量

目前,我国对保险公司的监管主要是静态监管,不能完全满足未来经济发展对保险业监管提出的挑战。为此,本文在介绍了KMV模型后,利用KMV模型对我国已上市的保险公司的风险进行了度量,旨在探讨在未来时机成熟时保险监管中引入KMV模型,利用KMV模型良好的风险预测能力,加强和改善保险监管的可能性。     

Risk Classification by Fuzzy Inference

Traditionally, policyholders in life insurance are classified in simple mortality tables, most often according to only a few risk characteristics. Instead of a risk classification according to the numerical rating system, this article describes how to classify by using a fuzzy inference methodology. By defining risk factors as fuzzy sets, it is shown that an insurer can utilize multiple prognostic factors that are imprecise and vague. The presented fuzzy risk classification provides a more realistic way of modeling mortality risks since it allows for compensations and interactions between multiple risk factors.     

预期寿命对中国养老保险支出的影响效应——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

利用1995—2014年我国31个省份的省级面板数据实证检验了预期寿命延长对我国养老金支出的影响效应。结果发现：人口平均预期寿命对我国养老金支出水平具有显著的正向影响。实证结果显示：研究样本期间内人口平均预期寿命的增加导致了我国养老金支出水平增加了0.94个百分点,对养老金支出水平增加的贡献度高达76%,成为了我国养老金支出增加的主导因素。随着我国人口预期寿命延长模式逐渐进入到以老年人口死亡率下降为主导,这种人口增龄效应对养老金支出的影响还会进一步增强和深入,在未来养老保险制度改革优化过程中需对预期寿命这一因素加以重点关注。     

寿险企业市场风险相关性实证研究

本文通过采用时变Copula-GARCH-t模型对四家上市寿险企业的市场风险及其时变相关性进行建模,并将2008年次贷危机纳入研究的时间窗口,以考察寿险企业市场风险相关性在不同经济环境下的时变特征。实证研究结果表明,上述模型能够较为充分地描述现实情况,并且从中发现寿险企业间市场风险相关性明显地随时间变化而变化,在金融危机时期有较高的相关度,而在正常时期相关度则有所回落,而各寿险企业的这一变化趋势呈现出较高的一致性。     

Experience Rating in Group Life Insurance

Abstract

Methods for experience rating of group life contracts are obtained as empirical Bayes or linear Bayes solutions in heterogeneity models. Each master contract is assigned a latent random quantity representing unobservable risk characteristics, which comprise mortality and possibly also age distribution and distribution of the sums insured, depending on the information available about the group. Hierarchical extensions of the set-up are discussed. An application of the theory to data from an authentic portfolio of groups revealed substantial between-group risk variations, hence experience rating could be statistically justified.     

论中国渔业互保协会的运作模式及其完善

中国渔业互保协会在实际运行中采用了"合作组织+行政辅助"运作模式,这种模式缘起在于渔民的自组织成本高于官方组织成本这一现实,两种成本之比决定了"合作组织+行政辅助"这一制度安排动态变动的边界.在这一制度安排中,实现了政府、协会本身和协会会员之间的三方正和博弈状态,这构成了该种制度安排的运作逻辑.随着渔业保险规模的扩大,...     

协同视角下的现代物流业与保险业发展关系研究

基于协同理论,选取物流业与保险业指标衡量2004-2013年行业发展水平,构建协同度模型与物流—保险系统哈肯模型,测算物流业与保险业之间的协同度,探索物流—保险系统的演变进程,动态反映二者发展的辩证关系.结果显示:物流业与保险业之间存在协同效应,但物流—保险系统尚未达到均衡稳定状态,物流保险市场的相对滞后对现代物流业的发展有抑制效应.要促进物流与保险进一步协同发展,应重塑互信业务链、创新营销思路、规范市场环境、完善风险预警系统、打造智慧物流保险平台.     

Mortality Risk and the Value of a Statistical Life: The Dead-Anyway Effect Revis(it)ed

In the expected-utility theory of the monetary value of a statistical life, a well-known result found by Pratt and Zeckhauser [1996] asserts that an individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a marginal reduction in mortality risk increases with the initial level of risk. Their reasoning is based on the so-called “dead-anyway effect” which states that marginal utility of a dollar in the state of death is smaller than in the state of survival. However, this explanation is based on the absence of markets for contingent claims, i.e. annuities and life insurance. This paper reexamines the relationship between WTP and the level of risk under more general circumstances and establishes two main results: first, when insurance markets are perfect, for a risk-averse individual without a bequest motive, marginal WTP for survival does increase with the level of risk but this occurs for a different reason, namely an income effect. Secondly, when the individual has a bequest motive and is endowed with a sufficient amount of wealth from human capital, the effect of initial risk on WTP for survival is reversed: the higher initial risk the lower the value of a statistical life. In the imperfect-markets case we interpret this result as a “constrained-bequest effect”.JEL Classification No.: D8, H43, I18     

Integral and differential equations for the moments of multistate models in health insurance

The moments of the random future liabilities of health insurance policies are key quantities for studying distributional properties of the future liabilities. Assuming that the randomness of the future health status of individual policyholders can be described by a semi-Markovian multistate model, integral and differential equations are derived for moments of any order and for the moment generating function. Different representations are derived and discussed with a view to numerical solution methods.     

寿险公司股权结构对经营绩效的影响——基于经理人代理成本视角

基于2012—2020年我国寿险公司的面板数据,实证检验股权结构对绩效的影响并探究其作用机制。结果表明：股权集中与绩效显著负相关,股权制衡与绩效显著正相关。机制检验发现,股权集中通过增加经理人代理成本削减绩效,股权制衡通过优化此类代理成本改善绩效。异质性分析表明,股权集中对成立时间短、发展速度慢的寿险公司绩效的负面影响更为显著。鉴于此,监管部门应适当降低寿险公司股东持股比例上限,引导非控股股东积极参与公司治理。