长期护理保险制度中老年人的失能风险和照料时间——基于Barthel指数的分析

文章采用我国长期护理保险试点地区普遍使用的失能评估工具Barthel指数作为老年人的失能评估标准,以2014年的CLASS和CLHLS数据为基础,在将两项数据合并后,综合运用多重填补法、生命表技术、沙利文法,对老年人的失能水平及其长期照料需求时间进行评估。分析结果表明:第一,老年人失能水平随年龄增加而快速增长,且存在明显的性别差异,女性老年人的生活自理预期寿命及其带残存活时间均高于男性,应将其作为重点关注人群;第二,轻中、重度失能人群中受损的活动能力项目存在差异,在提供照料时应加以区分;第三,60岁的老年人在重度失能状态下需要照料的时间约为0.42年,中重度状态下为0.79年,但是如果将轻度失能也考虑在内,需要照料的时间将增至5.01年。因此,将项目的受益人群扩大到轻度失能人群会导致照料成本大幅度上升。     

评新《保险法》新增不可抗辩条款的修法价值与建议

2009年2月28日,新《保险法》颁布,其引入了不可抗辩条款。这一条款不仅能够规范保险人行为,保护投保方利益,更能适应国际惯例,提高我国保险人的竞争能力,迎接外资保险的挑战。本文回顾了不可抗辩条款的历史进程,并对其修法价值进行了陈述,最后立足国情,对不可抗辩条款在实际操作中提出了一些的建议。     

人寿保险公司应税所得确认模式的国际比较

目前,世界上主要有三种确认人寿保险公司应税所得的模式,即以会计报告为基础的主流模式、以英国为代表的I-E模式、以新西兰为代表的I-E U模式。在不同模式的选择上不存在一个真理性的客观标准,从不同目的出发、在不同的约束条件和各具差异的税制传统下存在不同的选择。     

转变发展方式 推动寿险业务又好又快发展

本文在回顾我国人身寿险业务发展概况的基础上,总结了中国人寿保险公司发展的几点经验：一是提高可持续发展能力;二是提高核心竞争力;三是提高效益;四是全方位满足消费者需求;五是坚持科学发展以人为本。同时进一步深入探讨了推动人保寿险又好又快发展的措施。     

Some comments on the inverse problem for thinned renewal processes

Abstract

The following problem is considered: for which p ∈ (0, 1) and completely monotone functions g is g/[p+(1-p)g] completely monotone? This problem is shown to be equivalent to the inverse problem for thinned renewal processes. Some applications to gamma renewal processes are also discussed.     

寿险营销员离职倾向影响因素分析——以山东省寿险营销员为样本

离职倾向是预测员工离职行为最有效的指标。本文采用随机抽样的方式,选取了山东省6家寿险公司,现场发放问卷,对营销员的人际关系、薪酬福利、发展前景、工作满意度、流动限制等方面进行调查统计。构建寿险营销员离职倾向影响因素模型,运用因子分析、回归分析方法,对收回的问卷,从离职倾向的角度进行了深入分析。分析结果表明,发展前景对寿险营销员离职倾向影响最显著,其次是流动限制、薪酬福利、工作满意度和人际关系。为改善寿险营销员高流失率问题,需要从这几个方面统筹考虑。     

Analytic option pricing and risk measures under a regime-switching generalized hyperbolic model with an application to equity-linked insurance

Option pricing and managing equity linked insurance (ELI) require the proper modeling of stock return dynamics. Due to the long duration nature of equity-linked insurance products, a stock return model must be able to deal simultaneously with the preceding stylized facts and the impact of market structure changes. In response, this article proposes stock return dynamics that combine Lévy processes in a regime-switching framework. We focus on a non-Gaussian, generalized hyperbolic distribution. We use the most popular linked equity of ELIs, the S&P 500 index, as an example. The empirical study verifies that the proposed regime-switching generalized hyperbolic (RSGH) model gives the best fit to data. In investigating the effects of stock return modeling on pricing and risk management for financial contracts, we derive the characteristic function, embedded option price, and risk measure of equity-linked insurance analytically. More importantly, we demonstrate that the regime-switching generalized hyperbolic (RSGH) model is realistic and can meet the stylistic facts of stock returns, which in turn can be employed in option pricing and risk management decisions.     

Risk Classification by Fuzzy Inference

Traditionally, policyholders in life insurance are classified in simple mortality tables, most often according to only a few risk characteristics. Instead of a risk classification according to the numerical rating system, this article describes how to classify by using a fuzzy inference methodology. By defining risk factors as fuzzy sets, it is shown that an insurer can utilize multiple prognostic factors that are imprecise and vague. The presented fuzzy risk classification provides a more realistic way of modeling mortality risks since it allows for compensations and interactions between multiple risk factors.     

基于KMV模型对我国上市保险公司的信用风险度量

目前,我国对保险公司的监管主要是静态监管,不能完全满足未来经济发展对保险业监管提出的挑战。为此,本文在介绍了KMV模型后,利用KMV模型对我国已上市的保险公司的风险进行了度量,旨在探讨在未来时机成熟时保险监管中引入KMV模型,利用KMV模型良好的风险预测能力,加强和改善保险监管的可能性。     

寿险企业市场风险相关性实证研究

本文通过采用时变Copula-GARCH-t模型对四家上市寿险企业的市场风险及其时变相关性进行建模,并将2008年次贷危机纳入研究的时间窗口,以考察寿险企业市场风险相关性在不同经济环境下的时变特征。实证研究结果表明,上述模型能够较为充分地描述现实情况,并且从中发现寿险企业间市场风险相关性明显地随时间变化而变化,在金融危机时期有较高的相关度,而在正常时期相关度则有所回落,而各寿险企业的这一变化趋势呈现出较高的一致性。     

Experience Rating in Group Life Insurance

Abstract

Methods for experience rating of group life contracts are obtained as empirical Bayes or linear Bayes solutions in heterogeneity models. Each master contract is assigned a latent random quantity representing unobservable risk characteristics, which comprise mortality and possibly also age distribution and distribution of the sums insured, depending on the information available about the group. Hierarchical extensions of the set-up are discussed. An application of the theory to data from an authentic portfolio of groups revealed substantial between-group risk variations, hence experience rating could be statistically justified.     

Mortality Risk and the Value of a Statistical Life: The Dead-Anyway Effect Revis(it)ed

In the expected-utility theory of the monetary value of a statistical life, a well-known result found by Pratt and Zeckhauser [1996] asserts that an individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a marginal reduction in mortality risk increases with the initial level of risk. Their reasoning is based on the so-called “dead-anyway effect” which states that marginal utility of a dollar in the state of death is smaller than in the state of survival. However, this explanation is based on the absence of markets for contingent claims, i.e. annuities and life insurance. This paper reexamines the relationship between WTP and the level of risk under more general circumstances and establishes two main results: first, when insurance markets are perfect, for a risk-averse individual without a bequest motive, marginal WTP for survival does increase with the level of risk but this occurs for a different reason, namely an income effect. Secondly, when the individual has a bequest motive and is endowed with a sufficient amount of wealth from human capital, the effect of initial risk on WTP for survival is reversed: the higher initial risk the lower the value of a statistical life. In the imperfect-markets case we interpret this result as a “constrained-bequest effect”.JEL Classification No.: D8, H43, I18     

Integral and differential equations for the moments of multistate models in health insurance

The moments of the random future liabilities of health insurance policies are key quantities for studying distributional properties of the future liabilities. Assuming that the randomness of the future health status of individual policyholders can be described by a semi-Markovian multistate model, integral and differential equations are derived for moments of any order and for the moment generating function. Different representations are derived and discussed with a view to numerical solution methods.     

中国财产保险市场结构、效率与绩效关系检验

运用B erger和Hannan(1993)模型对中国产险市场结构、效率与绩效关系实证检验得出,中国的产险市场既不是结构决定绩效,也不是效率决定绩效,市场力量假说和效率结构假说都不存在。但大企业存在一定程度的"安逸生活"特征。随着中国产险市场化的改革,产险市场将逐步从市场力量说向效率结构假设转化。     

Contracting out of a state pension scheme

Abstract

The title of this paper is not common in actuarial literature, but the subject is one which has become familiar to every Briton in the last two years and which is essentially actuarial. The phrase "contracting out" has become English shorthand for an arrangement by which a private pension scheme may decide that it will not join a State pension scheme, usually because it already provides equal or better benefits. If the private scheme "contracts out" it will be excused the payment of contributions and will, of course, forgo the benefits.     

财产保险公司重塑商业模式框架思路探析

目前保险行业面临的核心问题之一是商业模式不明确。本文分析认为,创建一个成功的保险商业模式、实现业务盈利能力持续提升的根本出路在于明确以客户为中心的价值主张;通过产业链整合策略和价值链延伸策略,明晰需要满足哪些客户哪些价值的市场定位;再造运营流程,集中精力改进那些对客户的购买决策有重大影响的流程,实现整个业务流程由客户需求来驱动、以客户满意为目标;优化组织架构以支持运营流程再造;最终通过实现文化丰富与发展对商业模式深化进行巩固,从而打造出保险公司价值发展的新蓝海。     

城镇企业养老保险个人账户给付期测算研究——基于预期寿命的视角

养老保险个人账户给付期的科学设计是养老保险个人账户制度持续、稳定运行的关键.本文从预期寿命的角度构建了城镇企业职工养老保险个人账户给付期的测算模型,并从分性别和分地区预期寿命角度对养老保险个人账户给付期进行了测算,测算表明我国法定养老保险个人账户给付期设计与预期寿命变化不协调,并导致个人账户超支月数越来越大.可通过适当延长养老保险个人账户给付期、推迟退休年龄提高我国养老保险个人账户制度的运行效率.     

我国健康保险业的健康管理运行模式构建

健康管理是健康保险转移财务风险、控制成本、解决信息不对称、道德危害等问题的成功策略之一。积极借鉴国外保险业健康管理的成功运行模式(如HMO,PPO,POS等),构建我国健康保险的健康管理运行模式对于我国健康保险业的可持续发展有着重大意义。本文重点研究了健康管理运行模式的重要组成部分:服务人群、服务方式、服务内容、支付机制、成本控制与医疗服务管理机制、利益协调机制、反馈机制等,并探讨了健康管理当前在我国面临的问题,指出必须结合国情构建健康管理运行模式,从而促进我国健康保险业务稳定、持续、健康的发展。