On the Joint Distributions of the Time to Ruin,the Surplus Prior to Ruin,and the Deficit at Ruin in the Classical Risk Model

Abstract

The seminal paper by Gerber and Shiu (1998) unified and extended the study of the event of ruin and related quantities, including the time at which the event of ruin occurs, the deficit at the time of ruin, and the surplus immediately prior to ruin. The first two of these quantities are fundamentally important for risk management techniques that utilize the ideas of Value-at-Risk and Tail Value-at-Risk. As is well known, calculation of these and related quantities requires knowledge of the associated probability distributions. In this paper we derive an explicit expression for the joint (defective) distribution of the time to ruin, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin in the classical compound Poisson risk model. As a by-product, we obtain expressions for the three bivariate distributions generated by the time to ruin, the surplus prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Finally, we consider mixed Erlang claim sizes and show how the joint (defective) distribution of the time to ruin, the surplus prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin can be calculated.     

Two-Sided Bounds for the Finite Time Probability of Ruin

Explicit, two-sided bounds are derived for the probability of ruin of an insurance company, whose premium income is represented by an arbitrary, increasing real function, the claims are dependent, integer valued r.v.s and their inter-occurrence times are exponentially, non-identically distributed. It is shown, that the two bounds coincide when the moments of the claims form a Poisson point process. An expression for the survival probability is further derived in this special case, assuming that the claims are integer valued, i.i.d. r.v.s. This expression is compared with a different formula, obtained recently by Picard & Lefevre (1997) in terms of generalized Appell polynomials. The particular case of constant rate premium income and non-zero initial capital is considered. A connection of the survival probability to multivariate B -splines is also established.     

我国股票市场收益率序列分布尾部特征分析

本文以我国沪深两市的数据为样本,对我国股票市场收益率分布特征进行了检验,检验结果表明我国股票市场收益率分布并非正态分布,普遍表现出尖峰胖尾特征,文章最后对分布的尾部指数进行估计与分析。     

The Conditional Distribution of Real Estate Returns: Are Higher Moments Time Varying?

Previous research has shown that the returns on individual properties and listed property securities are skewed. This claim is investigated in the context of listed U.K. property companies and U.S. REITs. In particular, the shape of the conditional distribution of total monthly returns is examined for a group of 20 U.K. companies and 20 REITs. Also investigated is the claim that the skewness found in property returns varies over time. Using the model of Hansen (1994), it is found that while a large portion of property security returns in the sample do exhibit skewness in the conditional distribution only in a few instances is there time variation in the skewness parameter. There is little evidence to suggest that skewness is associated with the economic cycle.     

论按劳分配与按生产要素分配的结合

按劳分配与按生产要素分配之间既有差别，也存在共同之处。其差别主要体现在两种分配方式依据的理论以及二背后的所有制和经济体制不同。在我国当前的经济运行过程中，两种分配方式所依托的体制差异已不存在，并且传统的按劳分配所依据的理论在我国当前的体制下并不完全适用，两种分配方式也都承认劳动是人的谋生手段，劳动对劳动拥有所有权。因此，按劳分配与按要素分配之间的差别正在逐步消失，二之间能够相互渗透和兼容。从收入分配的目标来看，只有实行按劳分配与按生产要素分配的有机结合，才能实现高收入水平上的公平。     

烟草物流配送中心绩效评估研究

物流配送中心的绩效评价是烟草公司业务改善提高的重要依据,根据国家烟草局卷烟配送中心绩效评价准则,建立了绩效评价指标体系。基于熵权法和序关系法确定各指标主客观组合权重,结合使用标杆管理法和三角模糊数法确定各指标的隶属度,采用模糊综合评价对烟草配送中心绩效进行评价。     

政府与分配公平的实现

分配公平是社会公平的核心,是构建社会主义和谐社会的关键,也是当前政府工作的重中之重.本文拟就如何进一步发挥政府在实现分配公平方面的作用谈谈认识.     

关联交易对上市公司盈余质量的影响分析——基于沪市A股上市公司的经验研究

随着国内资本市场的发展,关联交易的规模也在不断扩大,表现出交易频率高、涉及金额大的特点。关联交易具有正反两面的效应,即既可以降低交易成本、提高经营效率,又可以成为上市公司盈余管理的手段。本文主要从盈余动机的角度出发,以近三年沪市A股上市公司为研究样本,研究结果表明,我国上市公司的关联交易规模呈逐年上升趋势,且存在明显配股动机。关联交易会对盈余质量产生显著影响,且这种影响随关联交易规模的扩大表现出先上升后下降的的趋势。     

On the predictive power of the surplus consumption ratio

This paper shows that the surplus consumption ratio, specified by Campbell and Cochrane [1999. Journal of Political Economy 107, 205–251], is a good predictor of excess returns at long horizons. We also provide empirical evidence that this variable captures a component of expected returns, not explained by the proxies for the consumption to wealth ratio, cay and cdy, proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson [2001a. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849; 2001b. Journal of Political Economy 109, 1238–1286; 2005. Journal of Financial Economics 76, 583–626]. Moreover, used as a conditioning information for the Consumption based Asset Pricing Model (C)CAPM, the resulting linear model helps to explain for the variation in average returns across the Fama–French (25) portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market characteristics.     

论我国公有制条件下的收入分配制度创新——对按劳分配和按要素分配的比较研究

允许非劳动要素参与收益分配,是我党对马克思主义政治经济学理论的重大创新,对推动社会主义市场经济体制建设也有着重要的意义.党的十六大报告在论述我国收入分配制度时,提出了"完善按劳分配为主体、多种分配方式并存的分配制度"的新要求,并将劳动要素的分配与资本、管理、技术等非劳动要素的分配置于相同层次进行表述,这一思想是对原有分配制度的重大创新,标志着我党在理论上的更加务实和更趋成熟;同时也预示着我国公有制经济内部收入分配领域深层次改革的开始.     

基于条件极值分布的金融高频数据VaR动态估计模型

高频数据由于自身数量大、周期短、信息丰富的特点而受到关注。基于高频数据。对金融时间序列的厚尾特征进行条件极值分布下的VaR估计。在对条件均值和条件波动率估计时,以往采用一阶自回归模型和GARCH模型,但基于高频数据的估计较为繁复。为了充分利用日内信息,基于高频样本观测值,建立已实现均值RM模型,在考虑市场异质性的基础上,对条件均值进行估计。通过对TCL股票价格进行实证分析,估计出VaR风险值,验证模型是合理的。     

On the optimality of proportional reinsurance

Proportional reinsurance is often thought to be a very simple method of covering the portfolio of an insurer. Theoreticians are not really interested in analysing the optimality properties of these types of reinsurance covers. In this paper, we will use a real-life insurance portfolio in order to compare four proportional structures: quota share reinsurance, variable quota share reinsurance, surplus reinsurance and surplus reinsurance with a table of lines.     

基于博弈均衡的中小企业融资契约安排

融资难是制约我国中小企业发展的瓶颈,也是摆在广大研究工作者面前的重大课题。本文从关系专用性投资的视角,考察了中小企业对融资关系的处理以及融资契约的安排,通过数学建模检验了静态博弈的非效率性,以及动态博弈下不同融资模式的子博弈完美纳什均衡的参与约束条件,进而为解决我国中小企业融资难问题提出了政策性建议。     

论学生音乐素质评价方法

众所周知,音乐课是人文学科的一个重要领域。在以往的对学生音乐素质评价中,教师往往采用让学生唱一首课本上的歌曲来给学生评分,有的教师甚至凭自己的主观臆断和对学生的大体印象来给学生打分。带着这样的思考,本文在贯彻落实新《课标》理念教学运作中,在音乐素质检测的内容与形式方面进行了大胆尝试与探索,并取得了一些经验。第一,学生自选强项内容,让检测更具个性色彩;第二,举行班级音乐会表演,让学生检测更具生活情趣;第三,相互评价,让学生的检测更富有人性魅力;第四,音乐档案袋,让检测更具全程性;第五,星级评定制,让检测更富有激励性。     

Ruin probability at a given time for a model with liabilities of the fractional Brownian motion type: A partial differential equation approach

In this paper we study the ruin probability at a given time for liabilities of diffusion type, driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent in the range (0.5, 1). Using fractional Itô calculus we derive a partial differential equation the solution of which provides the ruin probability. An analytical solution is found for this equation and the results obtained by this approach are compared with the results obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation.     

高校教师教学质量评估探析

高等教育的迅猛发展使保证并提高教学质量成为各高校当前最重要的一项任务.与时俱进的教学质量评估由于其评估标准和等级指标对教学工作有着鉴定、诊断、导向和激励作用,无疑对高校全面提高人才的培养质量,保证自身的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义.     

论中国不动产利益分配机制体系的构建

不动产利益分配机制体系是价格、租金、税收和收费的有机组合,由于相关制度的不配套以及改革的“路径依赖”,中国现行的不动产利益分配机制体系仍然存在重大缺陷。在本中我们将首先从理论上阐述不动产利益分配机制的一般关系,然后以家庭承包制为切入点,论述中国农村不动产利益分配机制体系的改革,最后以城市房地产行业为切入点,论述中国城市不动产利益分配机制体系的调整。     

论税收调节收入分配的作用空间与局限性

税收的性质决定其理应成为调节收入分配最有效的政策工具之一,然而,税收调节也存在一定的局限性。为避免出现税收调节万能论与无用论的认识偏差,本文从税收调节收入分配的着力点入手,阐释了税收在国民收入分配各环节调节收入分配的作用空间,并进一步论述税收在调节收入分配中存在的局限性,旨在为税制改革提供决策参考。     

ERP沙盘模拟课程教师评价模式的创新

目前,ERP沙盘模拟课程以其独到的设计理念、新颖的教学方式被各大高校认可,并广泛运用于院校的实践教学活动中,并得到了师生的广泛好评.但在教学实践中,我们逐渐发现在教师评价的环节中,仅仅是用单一的所有者权益指标考核团队的经营业绩,不够全面,因此本文在充分考虑所有者权益因素时,增加了管理工具、出勤情况、实验报告这几项重要因素,构成一套完善的教师评价模式.