资本市场投资回报率与我国养老金体系改革

理论上，投资回报率的高低是我国养老金体系转轨能否成功的关键。本文指出，我国建立基金制养老金体系面临极为特殊的背景——高工资增长率和低投资回报率。基于这个背景，本文认为现阶段进行体制转轨的时机还不成熟，当前需要大力提高我国养老基金的投资回报率或者为提高投资回报率创造条件。本文最后提出了关于提高我国养老基金投资回报率的几点建议。     

人民币国际化：建立均衡的回流机制

在人民币国际化的进程中,境外人民币的回流是其中非常重要的一个环节,且具有扎实的市场和政府支撑。当前经常项目下人民币回流机制与资本项目下人民币回流机制均出现非均衡的特征,对人民币国际化的纵深推进产生了掣肘,因此需要构建均衡的回流机制以进一步推进人民币国际化。     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

A Study of Volatility and Externality Compensative Return of Internet Financial Products in the Case of Yuebao

We use the data of 10 thousand accrual of Zenglibao monetary fund of Celestica Fund and two indicators of the monetary fund market, WIND index of monetary fund and CSI money fund index, to analyze the volatility and compensative rate of return of Yuebao. Based on the time-variant capital asset pricing model (CAPM), we quantitatively show that the volatility of return of Yuebao is less than that of the market, and the correlation between the Yuebao and the market is relatively low. These two conditions make the beta coefficient lower than that in traditional financial products. In this article, we define the gap between return of Yuebao and the estimated return by CAPM as the externality compensative rate of return, which is the main explanation of the high-return property of Yuebao.     

The Expected Return and Exercise Time of Merton-style Real Options

We analyse the rate of return and expected exercise time of Merton-style options (1973) employed in many real option situations where the possibility of exercise is both perpetual and American in nature. Using risk-neutral and risk-adjusted pricing techniques, Merton-style options are shown to have an expected return that is a constant percentage of the option value and independent of the proximity to the critical exercise boundary. Merton options thus remain at the same point on the Security Market Line, unlike European options whose position and rate of return change dynamically. We also present formulae for the expected time and discounted times to exercise and analyse the dependency of these variables on volatility.     

中国统一的最低养老保险制度实现路径、挑战和机制

中国养老保险制度以缴费型的第一支柱为主体、统账结合和城乡差距明显的现实,决定了将现有的城镇职工养老保险、灵活就业人员养老保险和新农保制度中基本养老金确定为最低养老金,将城乡最低养老金按照不同的速度逐渐调整为统一的最低养老金并使其覆盖全体老年人,就成为了中国统一最低养老保险的现实路径。要实现统一的最低养老保险,就要在待遇端构建城乡基础养老金的调整及统一机制,在缴费端优化统账结构并构建中国养老保险个人缴费减免补偿机制。     

证券公司借壳上市：模式、成本和收益比较

本文提出了一套模型和指标来计算中国证券公司及其股东在借壳上市中的成本与收益。研究发现：证券公司实际承担的总借壳支出并不高，甚至还可能在合并后获得净现金收益；在借壳上市中，证券公司原股东主要承担了股权稀释的成本；证券公司借壳上市后，其原股东普遍获得高投资增值收益；采用不同的借壳模式，证券公司原股东的成本及收益的规模和收益结构等有明显差异；结合股改的模式可能提高证券公司原股东的借壳收益，而采用分步走的模式可能带来更高的资产估值收益以及总体借壳效益。     

Automobile Insurance Contracts and Risk of Accident: An Empirical Test Using French Individual Data

Insurance has for a long time been perceived as a way of transferring responsibility from insured agents to insurers and thus as potentially influencing insured agents' behavior. Two particular opportunistic behaviors have been analyzed. First, the theory of adverse selection predicts that high-risk agents are likely to demand more insurance than are low-risk agents. Second, the theory of moral hazard predicts that the wider the insurance coverage, the less agents will try to prevent accidents. Both theories thus conclude that agents who are totally insured should have a higher probability of accident than those with only partial insurance, ceteris paribus. Nevertheless, one of the aims of insurance rating systems is to control for these opportunistic behaviors. In this article, we use individual data to see if the French automobile insurance rating system has achieved this aim. We do this using a two-step maximum-likelihood method. First, we compute a probit model to estimate the probability of taking out comprehensive versus third-party insurance. We then calculate the generalized residual, which is included as an independent variable in a negative binomial model estimating the probability of having an accident. The coefficient of this variable is argued to represent adverse selection and ex-ante moral-hazard behavior.     

中国保险业高速增长的动力机制:理论假说与实证研究

利用向量自回归模型（VAR）和误差修正模型（ECM）对我国保险业增长的动力机制进行探讨，得知经济增长和保险产业的自组织和自增长是保险业发展最主要的动力源。     

Accounting of the German Statutory Pension Scheme: Balance Sheet,Cross‐Sectional Internal Rate of Return and Implicit Tax Rate

We present a framework for accounting of the German statutory pension scheme and calculate a balance sheet for the period 2005–14. Estimating a funding ratio of about 90 per cent, we present some policy recommendations in order to restore balancing of assets and liabilities. Extending and applying the methodology proposed by Settergren and Mikula (2005), we additionally estimate the aggregate cross‐sectional internal rate of return of the German pension scheme over this period. We are able to show that these internal rates of return are mainly financed by increasing contributions and by increasing unfunded liabilities. Additionally, our analysis reveals that from an expenditure perspective, the major part of the internal rate of return results from changing longevity rather than other changes. We also estimate the implicit tax rates from a cross‐sectional perspective and find that they can mainly be interpreted as an ‘implicit wealth tax’ on pension wealth. Finally, we analyse the impact of demographic change on the balance sheet employing a population projection. While the pure demographic effect leads to a decreasing funding ratio during population ageing, the automatic balancing mechanisms of the German pension scheme lead to a significant overfunding in the long run from the accounting perspective adopted in the Swedish pension system.     

Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS非寿险保险风险最低资本要求比较研究——基于中国60家财产保险公司的经验证据

本文以非寿险业务保险风险最低资本要求为考察对象,研究了欧盟Solvency Ⅱ与中国C-ROSS的差异,并利用中国保险市场60家财险公司的经验数据,对两者之间的差异进行了实证和模拟分析。研究结果表明,Solvency Ⅱ和C-ROSS对中国财险公司保险风险最低资本要求存在差异。对于拥有传统业务结构的财险公司,Solvency Ⅱ对保险风险最低资本要求更高,但是这种差距随着公司业务规模的缩小而减弱;对于以经营某些专业险种为主的财险公司,主营业务险种对两者差异具有决定性影响。本文的研究结论详细解释了Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS在非寿险保险风险最低资本计算上的异同,对C-ROSS下一步的修订工作提供了一定的支持与参考。     

Mortality Risk and the Value of a Statistical Life: The Dead-Anyway Effect Revis(it)ed

In the expected-utility theory of the monetary value of a statistical life, a well-known result found by Pratt and Zeckhauser [1996] asserts that an individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a marginal reduction in mortality risk increases with the initial level of risk. Their reasoning is based on the so-called “dead-anyway effect” which states that marginal utility of a dollar in the state of death is smaller than in the state of survival. However, this explanation is based on the absence of markets for contingent claims, i.e. annuities and life insurance. This paper reexamines the relationship between WTP and the level of risk under more general circumstances and establishes two main results: first, when insurance markets are perfect, for a risk-averse individual without a bequest motive, marginal WTP for survival does increase with the level of risk but this occurs for a different reason, namely an income effect. Secondly, when the individual has a bequest motive and is endowed with a sufficient amount of wealth from human capital, the effect of initial risk on WTP for survival is reversed: the higher initial risk the lower the value of a statistical life. In the imperfect-markets case we interpret this result as a “constrained-bequest effect”.JEL Classification No.: D8, H43, I18     

The Articulation of Returns and Accounting-Related Variables when Returns Lead Earnings: UK Evidence

This paper constructs a simple setting in which economic returns always lead accounting earnings. It then uses this setting to explore analytically the likely effect of 'returns leading earnings' on the properties of the market-to-book ratio, accounting profitability, the price-earnings ratio and profitability persistence. The analysis predicts that 'returns leading earnings' will tend to drive up the level of each of the three accounting-related ratios and will generate certain patterns of association between those ratios. Analysis of data from a sample of UK companies supports many of the predictions.     

投资银行业经理人估值与分配机制研究——基于多层次的利益相关者分析框架

现阶段我国投资银行经理人的估值与薪酬考核面临如下困境:一方面由于某种错觉,社会普遍认为投行经理人的收入远远高于合理水平;但另一方面,经理人的实际薪酬水平与其他行业以及国外同行相比明显偏低,投行经理人的激励严重不足。立足于我国现有制度现实,应该寻找一种渐进的、与现有制度安排协调的投行经理人估值与分配模式。本文基于利益相关者分析框架考察了投行经理人的估值与分配机制,运用模型从环境分析、组织模式和方法体系三个递进的层次对经理人的业绩评价进行了系统分析,从理论上对我国投资银行经理人的估值模型进行了开拓性研究。     

人民币升值预期与贸易差额：2003~2009年

通过选取2003~2009年的时间序列数据,分析我国贸易差额的影响因素,并对我国贸易项下的非法资金流动规模进行估算。研究结果表明,在控制人民币实际汇率变动和国外市场需求变动之后,我国贸易差额与人民币升值预期之间的相关关系非常显著;人民币升值预期导致的非法资金流入和国外市场需求的变动可以解释我国的贸易差额;在剔除贸易项下非法资金流动和国外市场需求的影响之后,我国贸易差额与人民币实际汇率呈现出负相关关系。