Evaluating the potential of agent-based modelling to capture consumer grocery retail store choice behaviours

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making.     

Shopping orientations as antecedents to channel choice in the French grocery multichannel landscape

This paper investigates the influence of consumer shopping orientations on grocery channel attractiveness and choice. It extends the concept of shopping orientation (utilitarian and hedonic) to account for emerging motivations among French consumers: shopping in line with sustainable and ethical values. In doing so, it helps profile segments of consumers who choose to shop through new online channels (Drive through) and newly deployed store formats (city stores). A sample of 300 French customers, responsible for shopping in the household, was surveyed. Hypotheses were tested through Latent Class Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling with categorical outcomes. Our findings indicate that consumers shopping orientations influence the way consumers will combine the different channels and store formats for grocery purchase. In particular, our results highlight the importance of responsible retail practices and ethical assortments in consumers' choice of online formats whilst local product orientation influences the choice of city stores and market places.     

The Impact of the Multi-channel Retail Mix on Online Store Choice: Does Online Experience Matter?

More and more grocery retailers are becoming multi-channel retailers, as they are opening an online alternative next to their traditional offline supermarkets. While the number of multi-channel grocery shoppers is also expanding at a fast growth rate, there are still large differences in online shopping frequency, and as a result, in the levels of experience with buying in the online grocery channel. This study wants to (i) identify the underlying drivers of online store choice and (ii) explore if and how these drivers change when multi-channel shoppers gain online grocery shopping experience. We investigate this question with an online store choice model using purchase data of an extensive UK household panel over a two-year period, covering all multi-channel retailers in the grocery market. Our results show that multi-channel shoppers, at the start of online grocery shopping, tend to select the online store belonging to the same chain as their preferred offline store, especially when the online store is strongly integrated with the offline store in terms of assortment. When online grocery shopping experience increases, multi-channel shoppers’ focus shifts from a comparison within a chain across channels to a comparison across chains within the online channel, resulting in an increasing importance of online assortment attractiveness and online loyalty when choosing an online store.     

Family life in grocery stores – a study of interaction between adults and children

Today the family is seen as a unit for food choice and consumption. The influence of family members on food choice comprises several stages that can be carried out both in the private home and in the public sphere, such as the grocery store. This makes the grocery store a context in which ordinary family life can be observed. The aim was to study families and the interaction between children and adults in the grocery store, focusing on young people's involvement in food shopping. Hidden observation and family interview methods were used. A total of 338 people were observed in seven different grocery stores in Stockholm during the summer and autumn of 2003. Seven family interviews, involving a total of 29 persons, were conducted in Uppsala in the spring of 2003. In the interviews, parents reported avoiding shopping for food together with children as they experienced it as stressful and exhausting. The observations showed that family life in the grocery store comprises not only the food purchase, but also bringing up children and consumer education. Young people's involvement in the food purchase varied depending on their age and the specific product. The different behaviour observed may be interpreted as reflecting the variation in ways of bringing up children at home. Another conclusion is that a public place such the grocery store facilitates pedagogical situations and can work as a tool for informal education.     

Sociodemographic and spatial disaggregation of e-commerce channel use in the grocery market in Great Britain

The UK Grocery e-commerce industry is amongst the most developed in the world with an estimated value of £11.4Billion in 2018. Assisted by technological developments, the market has experienced dramatic growth over the past two decades. Grocery retailers have invested in online infrastructure and home delivery networks. As a result, consumers have a range of options which enable them to shop interchangeably between in-store and online channels. The proliferation of new grocery shopping channels such as home delivery or ‘click and collect’ (collect in store or collection from a non-store collection point), coupled with changing consumer behaviour, provides new challenges for retailers in understanding consumer dynamics in this market. This paper explores consumer behaviour and preferences for e-commerce in the grocery retail industry in Great Britain (GB) using a survey of 19,033 respondents from the major market research company YouGov. Respondents were asked a range of questions around uptake and channel usage in the grocery e-commerce sector. The survey presents a novel opportunity to analyse self-reported consumer behaviour in GB, with survey responses attached to key sociodemographic and locational information. We find that sociodemographics are an important driver of groceries e-commerce usage and channel choice, with females, more affluent households and those in the 25–44 age group most likely to use home delivery, corroborating previous research. Contrasting previous research, we also find statistically significant evidence of relatively high values of home delivery use among over-55s. Whilst overall usage is lower, we find a particular affinity to collection facilities among males and skilled manual workers. Spatially, we find evidence of both the innovation-diffusion theory and the efficiency theory at both a national and local authority district level, using a brief case study of Yorkshire and the Humber. These insights can support grocery retailers as they further develop costly localised infrastructure to support e-commerce. It could also assist retailers in understanding the localised drivers of channel choice as they seek to shift demand from home delivery (with high costs faced by the retailer in relation to the ‘last mile’) to click and collect (in which the customer faces the costs associated with the last mile).     

Polygamous Store Loyalties: An Empirical Investigation

Grocery store loyalty has been traditionally viewed as a trait of consumers toward a particular store for their overall shopping needs. In this study, we argue that store loyalty shall be regarded as category specific trait, that is, a consumer could be loyal to store A in category one while at the same time be loyal to store B in category two. We name this consumer behavior polygamous store loyalties.We use an in-home scanning panel dataset that tracks purchases of 1,321 households in 284 grocery categories across fourteen retail chains over a 53-week period in a large US market. First, we provide model free evidence of polygamous store loyalties in the data, even though the overall store loyalty based on the traditional view is low. Next, we propose a model to separate category specific effects from overall store level effects. Finally, we discuss how retailers can use the results to gain a new perspective on store attractiveness to improve overall store patronage.     

Communicating nutrition information at the point of purchase: An eye‐tracking study of shoppers at two grocery stores in the United States

Providing nutrition information at the point of purchase is one approach that can be used to help consumers adopt and maintain a healthy diet. Previous research has examined consumer self‐reported notice and use of the information as well as how the design of the information affects its attention and use in a laboratory environment using eye‐tracking methodology. This study advances the literature by applying eye‐tracking methodology to explore consumer visual and choice behavior in a real shopping environment, and by recognizing that nutrition information competes with other visual stimuli in the store and consumers are vulnerable to a “limited attention span” for nutrition information in a shopping setting. Data came from a cross‐sectional survey conducted in two grocery stores in the United States in July 2014 with a convenience sample of 60 grocery shoppers while they were selecting and buying items from one of three product categories (ready‐to‐eat cereal, snacks, and soup). The study finds that point‐of‐purchase nutrition information faced strong competition for participants’ attention from other visual elements in a real shopping environment and the attention is dominated by nonnutrition elements, particularly brand/product name, product imagery, and product pricing. Nutrition‐related information, on the other hand, received much less attention, with claims and front‐of‐package nutrition symbols seen by more participants than the Nutrition Facts label. The study suggests that to more effectively enable nutrition information to “catch the eyes” of shoppers at the point of purchase, increasing consumer exposure to the information and enhancing shopper education may merit further investigation.     

Age Differences in Response to Grocery Store Price Information

The study reported here investigated age differences in consumer response to grocery store price information. A sample of 160 female consumers shopped for twelve grocery products in a simulated store. Following the shopping task, subjects responded to an unannounced memory performance test requiring them to recall the prices of products on the shelves. Respondents' methods of encoding information and certainty regarding recall were also recorded. Analysis revealed age differences in usage of price information, in recall of product prices, and in certainty experienced by shoppers. Hypothesized age differences in the encoding of information did not surface. Discussion centers on the policy implications of these findings.     

The effect of multi-purpose shopping on pricing and location strategy for grocery stores

Though it is a well-accepted fact that consumers indulge in multi-purpose shopping, most previous models of store choice assume that grocery shopping trips are single-purpose trips. This paper provides the first empirical analysis of multi-purpose shopping using data on actual shopping trips. A latent class factor analytic logit model is proposed, which provides a representation of the market structure of grocery store competition, while integrating; multi-purpose shopping, retail pricing format and location strategy. We conclude that incorporating multi-purpose shopping trips provides a better understanding of the competitive market structure, and discuss the managerial implications for the selection of marketing strategies.     

The relevance of shopper logistics for consumers of store-based retail formats

This paper discusses and empirically evaluates the relevance of shopping-related logistics for consumers of store-based retail formats. Based on a literature review a conceptual model was developed and subsequently tested using a survey of more than six hundred consumers in the grocery retail sector. Respondents were those primarily responsible for grocery shopping in their households located in a highly concentrated European urban retail market. Variance based structural equation modelling reveals that shopper logistics has a major impact on the convenience of store-based shopping and partly influence consumers' perceptions of shopping related costs. Nevertheless, shopper logistics does not affect consumer behaviour in terms of the share of visits of a store. These results are moderated by age, hedonic shopping orientation, shopping frequency, average spending per trip and store format preference. We conclude that shopper logistics is relevant for consumers of grocery stores but its relevance varies between different shopper groups.     

The hidden agenda: emotions in grocery shopping

In this paper, we demonstrate the complexity of consumer decision-making within the supermarket and use videographic techniques to gain greater insight into this. We propose that grocery shopping, often perceived as a routine behavior, can in fact, become quite complex. The broad pattern emerging from our study was that the less time the participant spent looking at the shelves, the less emotion displayed. Where there was longer time spent, there was also increasing physical interaction with the product and a greater display of mostly negative emotion. We suggest that this presents a conundrum for retailers. Does the lack of emotion indicate little or no commitment to the store and/or brand? Or are they so loyal there is no need for consumer engagement? This exploration suggests that further insight can be gained if the emphasis is on how the consumer interacts with their brands rather than assuming that all grocery decisions are predictive.     

Save or (over-)spend? The impact of hard-discounter shopping on consumers' grocery outlay

An increasing number of consumers have come to patronize a hard discounter (HD) to save on their grocery budget. Given the HDs' rock-bottom prices, a complete switch from the traditional supermarket (TS) to the HD format would, indeed, substantially reduce grocery spending. However, consumers typically visit the HD on top of a TS, leading to a more complex purchase allocation and decision process. In addition to limiting the potential savings to part of the basket, these multiple store shopping patterns may therefore result in depletion of self-control resources and to self-licensing, consumers using realized savings to justify additional indulgent purchases. In this study, we explain and empirically analyze the effect of HD patronage on consumer spending, taking the selected shopping pattern (single versus multiple stores, visited on separate versus combined shopping trips) into account. To this end, we use scanner panel data on households' actual weekly purchase behavior. We also examine household differences in these effects, and relate them to household characteristics.Our results show that shifting the entire basket to the HD entails substantial savings. Yet, for the majority of consumers, adding a HD to the store set does not reduce grocery outlay: visiting the HD and TS on separate shopping trips leads to a “status quo”, and visiting them on combined shopping trips even enhances weekly spending. While consumers pay less per unit bought at the HD, this is (more than) offset by the purchase of larger quantities across a broad range of product categories, and of more expensive items at the TS. Especially older consumers or larger households, and consumers who shop more frequently or are easily enticed by promotions, are bound to overspend.     

Impact of movie-watching on cross-selling revenue in shopping malls: Implications for post-pandemic recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted consumers to postpone in-store purchases and shift to online shopping, decreasing overall retail spending. As the global lockdown eases and shoppers return to offline stores and malls, shopping malls seek to facilitate in-store consumer experiences at entertainment facilities. Given the importance of entertainment facilities to the cross-selling revenue of shopping malls, we investigate the relationship between consumers' movie-watching and subsequent (hedonistic) grocery purchases. Our analysis of a panel database that includes transaction details at the consumer level shows that movie-watching is negatively correlated with consumer spending. Furthermore, consumers’ psychological states induced by content and contextual factors moderate the negative effect of movie-watching; after watching a fantasy (as compared to thriller) genre or watching a movie in a less crowded theater, consumers are more likely to make hedonic purchases at the supermarket. These findings provide theoretical and managerial implications for retail operators exploring cross-selling opportunities post-pandemic.     

Pre‐schoolers,parents and supermarkets: co‐shopping as a social practice

The objective of this paper was to examine the co‐shopping practices of children and parents in supermarkets, i.e. the practical enactment of grocery shopping. Our special focus is on how informal consumer training occurs during parent–child interaction. We use observational data collected in spring 2008 in different Estonian supermarkets, post‐shopping interviews with parents and focus group interviews with their children. Our analysis is informed by practice theory, which helps to look in detail at how the activities in a particular situation are coordinated by understandings and procedures, and are guided by the engagement in a particular shopping trip. Co‐shopping interactions mostly revolve around particular material objects, although not exclusively. Product choice is a deeply contested area, where both parents and children face numerous pressures in this situation of two‐way socialization. There are implications for consumer education more broadly. To accomplish lasting and meaningful effects on the everyday lives of families, there has to be a wider range of actors – supermarkets, producers, governmental bodies, schools and families – who care about both formal and informal consumer education.     

Supermarket consumers and gender differences relating to their perceived importance levels of store characteristics

Family grocery shopping is the accepted domain of women; however, modern social and demographic movements challenge traditional gender roles within the family structure. Men now engage in grocery shopping more freely and frequently, yet the essence of male shopping behaviour and beliefs present an opportunity for examination. This research identifies specific store characteristics, investigates the perceived importance of those characteristics and explores gender, age and income differences that may exist. A random sample collection methodology involving 280 male and female grocery shoppers was selected. Results indicated significant statistical differences between genders based on perceptions of importance of most store characteristics. Overall, male grocery shoppers considered supermarket store characteristics less important than female shoppers. Income did not affect shoppers' level of associated importance; however respondents' age, education and occupation influenced perceptions of price, promotions and cleanliness.     

Information Search,Alternatives Evaluation,and Coping Mechanisms of Functionally Illiterate Consumers in Retail Settings: A Developing Economy Context

Little research has been carried out with regard to marketing to functionally illiterate consumers, despite the size and purchasing power of this market segment. This qualitative study examined the decision-making processes and coping mechanisms of functionally illiterate consumers in the South African grocery shopping environment. The findings provide insights that have important theoretical and practical implications for marketers, retailers, and policy makers. For functionally illiterate consumers, the information-search stage of the consumer decision-making process is either nonexistent or limited to a few trusted sources, such as friends and family, which often occurs only after a purchase has been made. Furthermore, these consumers face difficulties in a grocery store environment but have developed several coping mechanisms to compensate for their limited literacy skills.     

Impact of different types of in-store displays on consumer purchase behavior

Research on consumer in-store shopping behavior does not account for the existence of different types of display locations (e.g. storefront, store rear, secondary, front end cap, rear end cap, and shelf displays). This article focuses on accounting for and understanding the impact of various displays on consumer purchase behavior based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) theory. Specifically, we study how displays closer to and farther from the main location of the focal category influence consumer purchase behavior. Furthermore, within the different types of displays we investigate the impact of specific types of displays on consumer's category purchase and brand choice and the moderating role of price and discounts. A hierarchical Bayesian model is estimated using scanner panel data for a large U.S. grocery chain that contains unique information on the number of product facings at multiple display locations within a store. We find that displays closer to the focal category have a larger impact, with front end cap displays having the largest impact on category purchase and shelf displays having the largest impact on brand choice. We also demonstrate the synergistic impact of price and discounts in enhancing the impact of displays on consumer purchase behavior and brand choice. Equipped with these findings we propose a display allocation optimization that results in an average increase in revenue of about 11.15% and a strategy to distribute displays across all locations in the store rather than letting one location dominate.     

Should retailers adjust their micro-marketing strategies to type of outlet? An application to location-based store space allocation in limited and full-service grocery stores

Many retailers today operate strategically different types of sites: ‘limited-service’ stores—that offer all core products/services but only a shallow assortment of non-core services—and ‘full-service’ sites with deep lines of both core and non-core services. An important question for these retailers is whether and how to adopt a micro-marketing strategy in each of these formats. In a micro-marketing strategy, retailers tailor their marketing mix to the characteristics of the local market in which each store outlet operates—a central issue being whether the allocation of store space across product categories should be location-specific. This paper (i) examines the conditions for such micro-marketing to be beneficial, and (ii) in particular—how these benefits depend on store format. It also (iii) indicates how the pattern of space adjustments to local conditions should differ between formats. The propositions are tested in a grocery retail setting, for a retail chain operating limited-service supermarkets and full-service hypermarkets. Our results suggest that micro-marketing is beneficial in both types of format. Yet, the appropriate way of localizing space allocation patterns is format-specific. While supermarkets should primarily adjust the space shares of food (core) categories, hypermarkets should primarily adapt the space shares of non-food (non-core) categories to local market conditions. The outcomes of the study have conceptual as well as managerial relevance and may prove useful for multi-format retailers in a wide range of settings.     

A Model of Household Grocery Shopping Behavior

The shopping trip to the grocery store is one of the most basic elements of consumer behavior. The authors seek to provide an understanding of the factors that account for variations in shopping behavior across households. They present a model of shopping behavior that assumes that households seek to minimize the travel cost associated with shopping and the cost of holding goods in inventory. As in the classic EOQ model, observed shopping behavior reflects the manner in which households balance these costs while meeting their consumption needs. A number of propositions derived from the model are tested using data on shopping trips made by households over a one-year period. The results support the model and indicate that the relationship between household characteristics and shopping behavior can be fairly complex: for some households shopping may have a recreational aspect while for others it may compete directly with wage-earning activity.     

Cross-Cultural Retailing Research

Abstract

Relatively little is known about consumer perceptions of retailers in Central and Eastern Europe. What store attributes do consumers in these markets emphasize? Do these attributes reflect the culture of the region? These questions are addressed in the case of Estonia. However our main objective is to contrast the Estonian situation with that of a typical Western country, Canada. Two key shopping experience constructs are selected, namely merchandise selection and the interactivity between the store and the consumer. To make the comparison meaningful we have chosen a single retail category, namely discount or low-price department stores. In both countries there were two stores that dominated their respective market, so this facilitates the collection of consumer perceptions. Structural equation modeling using AMOS software has been used to test the equivalence of the constructs across cultures. Our main findings are that (1) both merchandise selection and store-customer interaction are valid constructs across both countries, (2) that the factor patterns have configural invariance or equivalence for each construct across the two cultures and (3) that the factor patterns do not have weak factor invariance across the cultures. In short, we conclude that there are major differences in consumer's discount store shopping experiences across the two cultures.