Korean financial crisis during 1997–1998 Causes and challenges

This paper analyzes the underlying causes of the Korean financial crisis during 1997–98 period. How the economic growth strategies adopted by Korean government have influenced the current-state financial turbulence is analyzed in a historical manner. Root causes of Chaebol problems are also investigated in relations to government policies and weakened financial sector. Further, the effectiveness of external remedy programs such as IMF bail-out package are critically assessed. Finally, the paper concludes with the observation that, despite the current crisis, the Korean economy still possesses strong fundamentals, therefore, the economic recovery is soon to be obtained with continuous reform efforts.     

A political economy analysis of the Korean economic crisis

This paper analyzes the causes of the Korean economic crisis from a political-economic perspective. The author points out that the economic causes which had been mentioned often such as overvalued won exchange rate and moral hazard of financial sector and corporate sector, have political origins. If the Korean economic crisis was caused by political economic factors, structural reform of the economy alone is not sufficient for economic recovery. Therefore, this paper argues, the behaviors of politicians, bureaucrats, and interest groups had been influential for resource allocation in the Korean economy. It concludes that the self-interest seeking activities of various interest groups should be properly controlled.     

农村消费结构升级及企业营销策略的研究

近年来,随着我国经济的发展,农村消费结构出现升级,农村市场为企业应对金融危机带来了出路。企业在此形势下需制定营销策略,把握新的生存机遇,形成新的经济增长点。文章在阐述消费结构及消费结构升级内涵的基础上论述了农村消费结构升级后新的消费特点,并结合目前企业营销存在的问题,从4P即产品、定价、渠道和促销策略的角度分析了企业应采取的营销策略。     

An introduction to problems of economic development in the CMEA countries

Through the Asian financial crisis, many key international economic issues have come to the forefront the stability of the international financial system under the IMF, “Asian values”, the universal validity of the Asian Economic Development Model, China's leadership in the regional world economy, Japan's role in the region, and the immunity of Greater China from the current financial crisis. Currently, most Asian countries seem eager to redress structural problems involving the government sector, banking, and corporate governance. In the process of this full scale restructuring, Korea must reevaluate its economic relationship with Central Asia. This paper argues that Korean financial crisis stems basically from the system failure. Furthermore, since a small open economy carries with it intrinsic vulnerabilities, the government should be more careful in securing optimal foreign exchange, opening capital markets based on the economy's absorption capacity. In this respect, the banking industry should be run based on the profitability of capital. Once banking industries are distorted by the practice of government‐led policy loans, it is more difficult to correct those customized distortions. The banking industry should play a larger role as the “brain of the economy”, sensing abnormalities of the economy. Moreover, in today's increasingly interdependent global economic system, no single country can solve its problems without close coordination of its policy with the outside world. An early warning system to signal financial instability would help developing economies in modernizing and strengthening their domestic financial institutions and would also work as a supplement to the IMF standby fund. Also, human resource management has proven too important to be neglected. Central Asia could derive lessons from the above Asian “failure”, not the Asian “miracle”, to avoid inappropriate policies and to deepen its economic development.     

South Korea's economic reform and its aftermath

This paper analyzes the process of Korea's recovery from the 1997 financial crisis with several policy implications. The driving force behind the better‐than‐expected economic recovery was the reform measures introduced by the Korean government in four major areas such as the financial, corporate, labor and public sectors. Also, Korea's strong export performance helped by the booming U.S. economy provided a favorable external condition for recoveiy. Internally, surging investment in the IT and venture industries, which was deliberately fostered by the government, along with the revived consumption level, enabled the rapid recovery. However, as the U.S. economy slowed and the technology bubble burst in 2000, the Korean economy went through a mild recession in 2001. Based on the experiences of crisis and recovery, the implication of macroeconomic fundamentals is re‐examined. Even though the strong macroeconomic fundamentals were misleading in preventing the crisis, they later facilitated the Korean economy's recoveiy. As a result of various reform measures, the Korean economy as of today is in a different environment First, the low investment rate along with the decreased saving rate will marie the end of the high growth era. Second, the substantial deterioration of income distribution will be the major task to be tackled with in the future. Third, the Korean economy is now fully liberalized both in the commodity and capital markets with some side effects and merits. Fourth, the loan and deposit structure of the financial sector is significantly altered. Lastly, more fiscal burden is placed on the shoulders of the government due to the heavy debt service burden of public funds and the generous expansion of social welfare programs.     

探求经济衰退背景下的复苏和繁荣路径——重读P.克鲁格曼《萧条经济学的回归》

美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机已成为影响国际经济格局的重大事件,理解此次危机的形成机理对经济理论和经济实践均具有重要意义.本文指出克鲁格曼的<萧条经济学的回归>对于理解此次金融危机和经济衰退提供了一个视角,并从真实需求不足与经济衰退的本质、寻求经济增长的"正确"方法、警惕"自我正名"的市场恐慌、增强凯恩斯契约的有效性、反思市场自由主义和经济全球化五个方面探讨了此书对理解此次危机的诸多启示,进而指出包括中国在内的众多经济体应从克鲁格曼的警示中获取思想养分,以期应对当前的经济挑战并探求未来的经济复苏和繁荣路径.     

建设冀东经济区 应对国际金融危机

此次波及全球的金融危机破坏严重,资本市场大幅动荡,多家重量级金融机构陷入破产困境,且对实体经济产生了不利影响。世界各主要经济体纷纷进入经济下行周期。在全球经济一体化的今天,中国经济必然受到金融危机的影响。河北省作为中国的一个经济大省,如何应对金融危机是摆在决策者面前的一个重要课题。本文在科学认识国际金融危机的基础上,提出着力建设冀东经济区,来减轻金融危机对经济社会的冲击和负面作用,保证社会经济平稳运行,并打造河北经济新的增长极。     

国际金融危机对世界及中国经济的影响

国际金融危机对全球经济的冲击仍在持续,对全球经济增长、国际金融市场、全球版图和治理模式将继续产生深远影响。在此背景下,本文分析了危机后全球经济增长率下滑的成因、国际金融市场的可能变化、全球政治经济权力的分配和运行的深刻调整,综合研判了国际金融危机对我国经济将会产生的长期影响。     

金融危机与中国经济增长—基于省级面板数据实证分析

本文选取2008～2010年东、中、西部省市级18座代表城市的季度数据并运用面板数据模型,考察了金融危机对中国经济的影响。研究表明,出口额、实际利用外资、社会总消费水平对中国经济增长的相关关系为正数,但是出口额与实际利用外资对经济增长的贡献远不及社会总消费水平对中国经济增长贡献。因此得出,金融危机爆发后,中国经济主要依靠政府政策性调控,然而以政府为主导的经济增长方式并不利于经济的长期稳定发展。     

信贷紧缩和流动性供给的悖论——全球金融危机之后中国银行业的考察(下)

我国在金融危机之后出现过信贷膨胀,经济过热之后又出现信贷紧缩。信贷紧缩会导致信贷增长下降,社会再生产的资金需求得不到满足。信贷紧缩有管理性成因,也有制度性成因。同时,为了确保经济增长的一定增速,我国的货币政策又要保持一定的流动性。这样,我国就出现了信贷紧缩和流动性供给之间的矛盾。本文讨论了全球金融危机之后,我国出现信贷紧缩的宏观经济运行背景,以及在此背景下货币政策失灵的内在逻辑。     

Outward investment, employment, and wages in Swedish multinationals

Examining detailed data for the home-country operations in Swedishmultinationals during the period 1986-94, this paper shows thatthere are signs of very notable structural changes in the home-countryoperations of these corporations. It also shows that the effectsvary according to economic conditions in the home country. Inthe 1980s, when the Swedish economy was characterized by hightaxes, high inflation rates, and a tight labour market, relativelyattractive jobs within the multinational corporations (MNCs)were relocated from Swedish plants to foreign affiliates. Inthe 1990s, by contrast, when the financial crisis had necessitateda host of micro- and macroeconomic reforms, the location decisionof the MNCs were more favourable for the Swedish economy. Newjobs created by the multinationals were found in activitieswith high productivity and wages. Thus, home-country effectsof foreign direct investment seem, to a large extent, to bedetermined by the home countries' economic environment.     

The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model

Abstract

Prior to the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean economy had based its growth policies on East Asia's economic catch-up model which was based mainly on the Japanese development experience. However, the events that lead to the 1997 crisis and the changes instituted in the Korean economy after the crisis have put to question whether the traditional East Asian growth model will continue to be viable. This paper examines two alternative models of development, namely the “Anglo-Saxon” and the “Continental European” models, and evaluates their relevance for Korea's future development challenges. Despite many common features these models share, they are also quite distinctive with regard to their treatment of the labor market system and the role of government. By focusing on the model's capacity to expand employment and to provide sustainable growth as the most important criteria, it is suggested that Korea should follow the “Anglo-Saxon model”, at least in the short- to medium-term. In comparing Korea's economy with other advanced economies when they were at the similar stage of development, it is found that Korea's growth potential lags behind that of countries such as Japan, Germany, Finland, and Ireland. The efficiency of Korea's investment is found to be only slightly better than Japan while it is inferior to all other advanced economies. Despite these challenges, Korea is apparently moving toward the “Continental European model”, with the Korean government increasing its own size and plans for further expenditures on social security and welfare. However, in order to ensure sustainable development with significant job creation, this paper argues that Korea should switch its direction and adopt the “Anglo-Saxon model” as soon as possible.     

试论金融危机对中国经济的影响

2007年由美国房价下跌导致的次贷危机,让美国经济遭受衰退危险,并引发了全球范围内百年未遇的金融危机,到现在仍然没见底,给全球经济增长带来严重负面影响。基于此,本文在分析金融危机对中国经济影响的基础上,提出了中国防范金融危机风险的政策建议。     

全球金融危机与欧洲经济的困境

论文探讨了全球金融危机对欧洲的冲击与影响,认为美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机对欧洲经济带来的衰退比美国更甚。论文从欧洲经济长期存在的矛盾在危机中集中爆发以及欧盟在国际金融体系中缺乏远见卓识两大方面分析了其中的原因。论文还对欧盟经济的复苏前景及未来经济增长的出路作了分析预测,认为如果欧盟不能在创新以及以更开放的心态来对待发展中国家的崛起上作出努力和调整,欧盟中长期经济发展的前景不容乐观。     

后危机时期的全球公共债务危机和中国面临的挑战

为克服危机而推行的扩张性财政政策导致了公共债务危机的恶化。美联储推出的量化宽松II不但难以消除美国过度负债的一系列后果,且对全球经济、金融稳定的副作用巨大。在新的一年,中国将面临来自实体经济和金融两方面的冲击:在出口增速下降、大宗商品价格上涨、贸易顺差减少的同时,热钱的冲击将导致资产价格和物价上涨压力的增加。中国现有外汇储备的实际价值也将遭受美国国债价格下降和美元贬值的双重打击。     

经济虚拟化与金融危机的环境观

虚拟经济应当与实体经济的发展相适应,经济过度虚拟化是引发金融危机的重要原因,而科技创新和环保产业的发展是战胜经济危机的有效措施。面对危机对社会带来的巨大冲击,为了稳定金融和经济秩序,应当从环境与资源的角度进行审视和应对,通过调整相关法律规范、发展环保产业、转变经济增长方式等措施,实现社会的可持续发展。     

后次贷危机时代下的中国经济增长突破口探析

在美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,新兴市场出口驱动经济的战略产生局部或整体改变的背景之下,我国在后次贷危机时代应改变经济增长方式,以扶持中小企业,稳定就业水平为突破口大力扩张内需,进而实现宏观经济平稳较快的增长。     

Interaction between Foreign and Domestic Investors in the Korean Stock and Futures Markets*

The present paper analyzes the behavioral relations of major investor groups in the stabilized Korean stock and futures markets after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Investor groups cannot be classified as positive or negative feedback traders on market returns when both stock and futures markets are considered, which is inconsistent with the results in Ghysels and Seon (2005). Foreign investors and domestic institutions tend to take opposite positions in both markets. The impact of foreign investors on the basis change is significantly negative in the futures market, whereas domestic institutions have a negative relation in the stock market. This supports the view that selling activity of foreign investors in the futures market pulls the futures price down compared with the index value and, consequently, induces the reverse cash‐and‐carry trade of domestic institutions. This relationship, which negatively influenced the Korean economy during the crisis, as shown in Ghysels and Seon (2005), still exists in the Korean financial markets.     

在扩内需、保增长中谋求中国经济发展的新机遇

金融危机对中国经济的影响逐步显现,当前国家宏观政策正进行重大调整。本文本着科学的发展观思想,在扩大内需、保持经济稳定增长的大前提下,通过金融危机对我国经济的影响,针对中国的现状,分析自身存在的优势,在中央提出扩大内需、保增长的措施中寻求中国未来经济发展的新机遇。     

Asian Financial Crisis and the Evolution of Korean Banks Efficiency: A DEA Approach

Abstract

In the mid-1990s, the East Asian countries experienced severe financial crisis that were followed by deep economic downturns. A variety of methodologies have been used to understand the nature of the Asian financial crisis. However, the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the financial industry has yet to be critically examined. By employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach the present study attempts to examine for the first time the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the Korean banking sector. The study focuses on three major approaches, namely, intermediation, value added, and operating approaches. The results clearly bring forth the high degree of inefficiency in the Korean banking sector, particularly a year after the Asian financial crisis. We find that the Korean banking sector has consistently exhibit higher technical efficiency levels under value added approach, while technical efficiency seems to be lowest under intermediation approach.