Factors affecting intercoder reliability: a Monte Carlo experiment

Although it has long been a consensus that intercoder reliability is crucial to the validity of a content analysis study, the choice among them has been debated. This study reviewed and empirically tested most popular intercoder reliability indices, aiming to find the most robust index against prevalence and rater bias, by empirically testing their relationships with response surface methodology through a Monte Carlo experiment. It was found that Maxwell’s R.E is superior to Krippendorff’s α, Scott’s π, Cohen’s κ, I _r of Perreault and Leigh, and Gwet’s AC ₁. More nuanced relationships among prevalence, sensitivity, specificity and the intercoder reliability indices were discovered through response surface plots. Both theoretical and practical implications were also discussed in the end.     

Intercoder reliability indices: disuse,misuse, and abuse

Although intercoder reliability has been considered crucial to the validity of a content study, the choice among them has been controversial. This study analyzed all the content studies published in the two major communication journals that reported intercoder reliability, aiming to find how scholars conduct intercoder reliability test. The results revealed that some intercoder reliability indices were misused persistently concerning the levels of measurement, the number of coders, and the means of reporting reliability over the past 30 years. Implications of misuse, disuse, and abuse were discussed, and suggestions regarding proper choice of indices in various situations were made at last.     

A fuzzy set theory based computational model to represent the quality of inter-rater agreement

In this paper we present a method to evaluate the quality of a rater’s judgement, which can integrate and enrich the use of inter-rater agreement as a reliability measure. Our proposal is an integrative one and evaluates the quality of a rater’s performance through an analysis of the profile of that individual rater’s performance. We discuss its rationale on the basis of the interpretation of inter-rater agreement, highlighting some critical issues. For this purpose, we adopt a computational model based on fuzzy set theory, demonstrating its main characteristics with an exemplary case study.     

Service quality of travel agents in Turkey

Customer satisfaction is an important measure of service quality in travel agents. Customers’ perceptions about agents seem to have been largely ignored by agent management in developing countries. The assessment of service quality provides an important feedback for agents to assess and improve its service to its customers. The aim of this study is to develop a reliable and valid instrument measure customer satisfaction in travel agents. A questionnaire to measure the service quality of travel agents was used and a total of 217 customers in Turkey were interviewed. Factor analysis was utilized to determine the factor structure. The instrument of the customer satisfaction developed in this study provides insights to the researches who study the improvement of customer satisfaction with service quality of travel agents and decision markers.     

FINANCIAL CUTBACK DECISIONS BY PRIORITY SCALING

This paper reports the application of the priority scaling method to financial cutback decisions in a social services organization, and provides an overview of the priority scaling method. The method is used to elicit a weighted scale of individual and group priorities between options from paired-comparison exercises, together with a measure of internal consistency of judgment. The weighted scale of option priorities may be adjusted to align with the relative values individuals and groups assign to the multiple criteria which guide their judgments, and a measure of internal coherence of judgment obtained. Decision-makers’ allocations of resources may be inferred from their priority weightings together with budgets for each option. Applying the method in reverse, decision-makers’ implied priorities may be directly inferred from proposed budget cuts. A set of reliability tests are incorporated in rigorous versions of the method.     

Underlying determinants driving agreement among coders

There are plenty of intercoder reliability indices, whereas the choice of them has been debated. With a Monte Carlo simulation, the determinants of the agreement indices were empirically tested. The chance agreement of Bennett’s S is found to be only affected by the number of categories. Consequently, S is a category based index. The chance agreements of Krippendorff’s $\alpha $ , Scott’s $\pi $ and Cohen’s $\kappa $ are affected by the marginal distribution, the level of difficulty and the interaction between them, and yet the difficulty level influences their chance agreements abnormally. The three indices are hence in general distribution based indices. Gwet’s $AC_1$ reversed the direction of the three aforementioned indices, but its chance agreement is additionally affected by the number of categories and the interaction between the number of categories and the marginal distribution. $AC_1$ can be classified into a class based on the number of categories, the marginal distribution and the level of difficulty. Both theoretical and practical implications were also discussed in the end.     

Innovation Strategy and Entry Deterrence

We model an incumbent’s decision to pursue radical or incremental innovation when facing a rival entrant. The radical innovation may yield lucrative financial returns but entails significant technological and market‐related uncertainties. It is also particularly attractive to the rival entrant: if the market for it pans out, such an innovation obsoletes the existing technology and any incremental improvements to it. Each firm has its own assessment of the market potential for the radical innovation, and the reliability of these market forecasts can differ. We show that when the entrant’s market‐assessment capability is weak, the incumbent will pursue incremental innovation and postpone its plans to develop radical innovation even when it thinks highly of the market potential for the radical innovation. The incumbent does so to avoid validating the high market potential to the entrant, who may otherwise be encouraged to invest aggressively. The incumbent thus prefers to look “soft” with respect to its innovation strategy in order to discourage entry. Even if its innovation strategy is not observable, we show that an incumbent that assesses the commercial potential for a radical innovation favorably may pursue an incremental path and communicate its plans publicly; this strategy serves to reduce entry by affecting the entrant’s beliefs about the market potential of the innovation. Finally, we extend the model to investigate the entrant’s decision to communicate its innovation intentions. We find that the entrant communicates its plans to aggressively pursue radical innovation only if the incumbent’s market‐assessment capabilities are strong. In doing so, the entrant acts preemptively to discourage the incumbent from pursuing the radical innovation, and is less concerned with validating market potential.     

Can consumer complaints reduce product reliability? Should we worry?

We analyze a monopolist's pricing and product reliability decision in a model where consumers are entitled to product replacement if the product fails, but have heterogeneous costs of exercising this right. Our main result shows that, under some conditions, a decrease in consumers expected to claim cost leads to a decrease in product reliability but an increase in profit and welfare. This result is robust to a number of extensions. Our results are in line with anecdotal evidence suggesting that changes in consumers’ claiming cost can be induced by both third parties (governments, consumers’ organizations, private enterprises, etc.) and firms. More precisely, since, under some conditions, profit and welfare align, public initiatives oriented to lower consumers’ claiming cost will be ultimately joined by firms that benefit from further increases in complaints.     

条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究

本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,建立条件固定效应回归（C—Logit）目的地选择模型。结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并描述目的地选择预测流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素。对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路。     

Estimating intercoder reliability: a structural equation modeling approach

Intercoder reliability is usually estimated with a summary index, and yet the limitations concerning the indexing approach have been well noted. This study critically reviewed all the existing major modeling approaches to estimating intercoder reliability, and empirically tested and further compared these approaches. It was found that latent variable modeling, also called the second-generation SEM, generally perform better than log-linear modeling, and is able to explain the paradox haunting some indices, and to spot the sources of disagreement among coders. Implications were discussed at last.     

城市街区空间结构低碳化的理论模型

通过分析城市空间结构的内涵,认为"街区"是居民日常出行最为集中的场所,也是形成城市空间结构的基本单元。认为应该从居民的出行需求出发,通过充分分析街区内各功能用地的可达性需求,来发现出行需求内向型的街区用地结构,并以此为指导,建设功能混合型的城市街区,使各功能用地与空间可达性最大效用耦合,从而减少通勤产生的碳排放。     

The accident externality of driving: Evidence from observance of the Jewish Sabbath in Israel

We document and measure an externality of driving, whereby a driver’s decision to take to the road affects fellow drivers risk of accident. Because religious Jews refrain from driving during the Sabbath, traffic on Israeli roads decreases sharply when the Sabbath begins each Friday, at a precisely defined time before sundown, and increases after the Sabbath ends on Saturday evening, at a precisely defined time after sunset. Using plausibly exogenous variation in traffic volume associated with the Sabbath, we estimate the effect of traffic volume on the risk of fatal or injurious accident. We find that a positive accident externality emerges only at the Sabbath exit, when traffic volumes are greater. Remarkably similar results arise when the analysis is confined to non-Jewish drivers, whose travel choices are not bound by the precise timing of the Sabbath, supporting the interpretation that our findings reflect an externality. Finally, the effect emerges mainly on a class of road sections that is considered highly perilous, suggesting that the interaction of traffic volume and road perilousness is important for understanding this issue and shaping implicated policy.     

居民出行信息服务水平评估方法——以昆明市为例

良好的出行信息服务能够便于出行者制定出行计划,减少其出行过程中的时空消耗。为了科学评价居民出行信息服务水平并提出合理的优化对策,从出行者角度对居民出行信息服务水平进行了详细的分析,将出行信息服务分为出行前信息服务、静态出行信息服务和动态出行信息服务三大类。依据出行行为特征建立出行信息服务水平评价指标,通过居民出行信息服务调查来采集实际数据,并利用AHP法确定指标权重,通过模糊综合评价对昆明市居民的出行信息服务水平进行了评估。评价结果表明昆明市的出行信息服务水平较差,并基于评价结果提出了具体的优化措施。     

Stakeholders’ Attributes,Behaviors, and Decision‐Making Strategies in Construction Projects: Importance and Correlations in Practice

Project managers need to make decisions on how to balance competing claims between the different stakeholders in projects. Previous studies have suggested that the choice of decision‐making strategies is highly related to stakeholders’ attributes and behaviors in practice; however, limited studies have been conducted in the construction field to analyze the importance of stakeholders’ attributes, behaviors, and decision‐making strategies, and validate the correlations between the factors and decision‐making strategies. To analyze the underlying meanings of stakeholders’ attributes, behaviors, and decision‐making strategies from the practitioners’ perspectives, and indicate the influence of stakeholder‐related factors on decision‐making strategies, an interview, questionnaire survey, and case study were adopted. Empirical studies suggest that three stakeholder attributes (power, urgency, and proximity), and four types of stakeholder behaviors (cooperative potential, competitive threat, opposite position, and neutral attitude) are perceived by the practitioners as important to dealing with stakeholder claims. Depending on stakeholders’ salience levels and behavior types, strategies of defense, compromise, or concession/adaptation are chosen and applied by project managers in practice. The findings can help project managers to proactively understand stakeholder performance, place emphasis on particular attributes and behaviors, and formulate appropriate schemes under different circumstances.     

Statistical Disclosure Risk: Separating Potential and Harm

Statistical agencies are keen to devise ways to provide research access to data while protecting confidentiality. Although methods of statistical disclosure risk assessment are now well established in the statistical science literature, the integration of these methods by agencies into a general scientific basis for their practice still proves difficult. This paper seeks to review and clarify the role of statistical science in the conceptual foundations of disclosure risk assessment in an agency’s decision making. Disclosure risk is broken down into disclosure potential, a measure of the ability to achieve true disclosure, and disclosure harm. It is argued that statistical science is most suited to assessing the former. A framework for this assessment is presented. The paper argues that the intruder’s decision making and behaviour may be separated from this framework, provided appropriate account is taken of the nature of potential intruder attacks in the definition of disclosure potential.     

航天测量船静电陀螺仪李沙育图形测频动态修正

文章通过分析航天测量船静电陀螺仪转速变化原因,依据李沙育原理推导出陀螺仪转速变化时李沙育图形频率测量的修正公式并工程应用。实验结果表明:该方法具有较高的可信度,能够解决陀螺仪转速变化时频率测量准确度低的技术难题,极大提高测量精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Stochastic Route Choice Equilibrium Assignment for Travelers with Heterogeneous Regret Aversions

Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational. Recently, regret theory has attracted researchers’ attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior. This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory. All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion. The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret. The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method. The numerical results show that users’ regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.     

中国旅行社业市场绩效及其影响因素分析

改革开放以来,我国旅游收入不断增长,旅行社数目不断增加,市场容量与行业规模都在扩大。但与此同时,我国旅行社业的利润率却大幅度下滑,维持在一个较低的水平。本文运用数理统计的方法和SPSS统计分析软件全面分析旅行社业市场绩效及其影响因素,获得了对我国旅行社业情况的一些新知,为政府制定科学的产业政策、为企业采取合理的企业行为提供依据。