Regulation, market structure and service trade liberalization

In this paper, we develop a theoretical method to quantify the importance of regulation and market structure on the success of service trade liberalization. For this purpose, we incorporate a single imperfectly competitive service sector that can take on various market structures into a standard computational general equilibrium model. We apply our framework to analyze the impact of partial telecom liberalization in Tunisia. We show that if the regulatory environment guarantees competition, Tunisia's welfare can improve up to 0.65%. If a cartel is formed between the domestic incumbent and foreign entrant, however, Tunisia's welfare can drop up to 0.25%. Our results thus call for Tunisia among other developing countries to step up its pro-competitive regulatory reforms while liberalizing its telecom sector.     

泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易实证分析

本文从泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易发展的现状入手，通过使用双边贸易结合度、贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易指数等进行实证分析论证，从而得出双边贸易正由从基于外生比较优势的产业间贸易走向基于内生比较优势的产业内贸易形成互补性分工的结论，不断扩大双边贸易，寻求双方新的贸易增长点。     

A structural model of the fixed time costs of market work

We link ATUS 2003–04 to March CPS data and examine market work's effects on non-market activity. In a structural model fixed time costs of work generate a utility-equivalent of 8% of income to be overcome before working becomes optimizing.     

Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model

This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.     

The spillover effects of United States foreign trade zones

This article empirically tests the geographic and economic spillover effects of foreign trade zones (FTZs) in the United States by utilizing propensity score matching and the geographic rules of the programme. While these FTZ sites are designed to support manufacturing, we find that ZIP codes that receive FTZ sites experience growth in new and existing non-manufacturing establishments. Our results also show that FTZs spillover into nearby ZIP codes. We find that ZIP codes that border FTZ ZIP codes also experience positive effects on non-manufacturing establishments and these spillovers are strongest within a 5-mile radius of an FTZ.     

A study of virtual land trade between China and ASEAN based on material flow analysis model

In this paper,based on the material flux analysis model（MFA） and its corresponding theories and algorithms of ＂virtual land＂ virtual land contents of five primary agricultural products are calculated and＂Virtual land trade＂hidden in those imported and exported products are also obtained through analyzing the primary agricultural product trade between China and ASEAN. In the process of calculationl following the thought of Changing agricultural products to ＂Virtual land trade＂land content, trade condition and spatiai distribution of agricultural products Were integratedly considered. indicate that China exported 73;057 km^2 of virtual land area to ASEAN by tea, vegetables; maize and grain, ASEAN exported： 57.332 km^2 to China by natural rubber from 2002 to 2005. It obvious; that china has lost 15,725 km^2 arable land through agricultural product trade, Additionally, in order to process： of calculation Virtual land trade, Thailand taker as an example to analyze its international trade of rice and Wheat from 1991 to 2005 and Calculate their ＂Virtual land trade＂ 2001 through 2005. According to and calculation, it is not difficult to conclude that ＂Virtual land trade＂ very important and could be used for China to guide agricultural export or import Structure and maintain Sustainable use of land resources.     

A two-methodology comparison study of a spatial gravity model in the context of interregional trade flows

This article argues that the introduction of spatial interactions to model the determinants of origin-destination (OD) flows can potentially result in excessive contiguity. To explain flows between OD regions, it is not only what happens in the origin and destination that is relevant, but also what happens in their neighbouring regions. However, what happens if there is a high degree of overlap between origin neighbouring areas and destination neighbouring areas? The article presents an empirical illustration to re-examine the evidence presented in previous research (Alamá-Sabater et al., 2013) and more closely analyses the territorial level, focusing on the case of interregional trade of goods at the NUTS3 level (Spanish provinces). We then use two different methodologies within the framework of a spatial gravity equation for interregional trade modelling. The findings confirm the importance of spatial dependence on trade flows and in particular that logistics decisions within a province affect shipments from contiguous provinces.     

Predicting the pattern of international trade in the neoclassical model: a synthesis

I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single economy and integrated equilibrium formulations of the neoclassical trade model. I identify allocative efficiency as the unifying subset selection criterion for the different formulations of the neoclassical trade model, ranging from Ricardo’s (in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, reprinted by J. M. Dent, London, in Everyman’s library, 1817) original comparative advantage formulation to the multi-cone Heckscher–Ohlin specification with multiple countries, goods and factors. I am grateful to comments from Jim Anderson, Chris Starmer, Catia Montagna, Peter Neary, two anonymous referees, as well as participants at the June 2007 GEP Conference on ‘New Directions in International Trade Theory’. I am grateful for financial support from NSF research grant SES-0452991 and from Leverhulme Trust Programme grant F114/BF.     

A simple model of coalitional bidding

Summary. We analyze a model of coalitional bidding in which coalitions form endogenously and compete with each other. Since the nature of this competition influences the way in which agents organize themselves into coalitions, our main aim is to characterize the equilibrium coalition structure and the resulting bids. We do so in a simple model in which the seller may have good reason to allow joint bidding. In particular, we study a model in which the agents are budget constrained, and are allowed to form coalitions to pool their finances before engaging in the first price auction. We show that if the budget constraint is very severe, the equilibrium coalition structure consists of two coalitions, one slightly larger than the other; interestingly, it is not the grand coalition. This equilibrium coalition structure is one which yields (approximately) the maximum expected revenue. Thus the seller can induce the optimal (revenue maximizing) degree of cooperation among budget constrained buyers simply by permitting them to collude. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: November 13, 2000     

中国遭遇国际贸易摩擦的必然性与合理性研究

2008年全球性金融危机之后,贸易保护主义重新抬头,中国遭遇的国际贸易摩擦愈演愈烈。但是通过贸易理论分析和世界经济、中国经济的发展实践来看,中国遭遇国际贸易摩擦有其必然性和合理性,它是中国经济和对外贸易所处历史阶段下的必然产物,国际贸易摩擦有其存在的合理性。     

A simple agent model of an epidemic

This paper presents an agent model that simulates the spread of an infection in a population. The epidemic depicted could be any attribute that is passed from a one person to others in society, for example, a disease, an idea or belief, a fad, a market or a behavioral pattern. The model was constructed to study the sensitivity of factors such as virility of the infectious agent, the “reach” of the vector and the density of the population in which the epidemic takes place. A further goal was to begin the development of a general-purpose forecasting model based on the use of agents. The model and its results are presented in this paper.     

绿色壁垒对绍兴外贸出口的影响及政策建议

当前，绿色贸易壁垒在全球经济中运用得越来越广泛，对出口造成了巨大影响。本文通过对绿色壁垒绍兴外贸出口贸易方向和出口结构影响的分析，提出一些政策建议。     

A simple search model of money with heterogeneous agents and partial acceptability

Summary. Simple search models have equilibria where some agents accept money and others do not. We argue such equilibria should not be taken seriously. This is unfortunate if one wants a model with partial acceptability. We introduce heterogeneous agents and show partial acceptability arises naturally and robustly. There can be multiple equilibria with different degrees of acceptability. Given the type of heterogeneity we allow, the model is simple: equilibria reduce to fixed points in [0,1]. We show that with other forms of heterogeneity equilibria are fixed points in set space, and there is no method to reduce this to a problem in R¹.Received: 4 September 2002, Revised: 23 September 2002JEL Classification Numbers: C78, E40.A. Shevchenko, R. Wright: We thank seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Indiana University, Purdue University, University of Toronto, the 2002 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference at Vanderbilt University, and the 2001 Conference on Economic Dynamics at the University of Essex. The National Science Foundation and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provided financial support. Braz Ministerio de Camargo and Gabriel Camera provided some helpful suggestions. Correspondence to: R. Wright     

A simple model of emerging market portfolio structure

Many emerging market economies have experienced large buildups of foreign exchange rate reserves over the last decade. Much of the contemporary discussion of this phenomenon has focused on this reserve growth as the consequence of exchange rate policies which have maintained fixed pegs to the US dollar. By contrast, this paper focuses on emerging market reserve choice as a consequence of portfolio diversification, applied to the experience of Asian economies. While Asian economies have become significant gross creditors in bonds and other fixed income assets, their liability position in equity and FDI assets has also grown significantly. This suggests that a full understanding of the reserve growth episode must be seen as part of an overall model of portfolio choice. The paper constructs a model of the interaction between an emerging market and an advanced economy in which an optimal general equilibrium portfolio structure implies that emerging market economies simultaneously build up a stock of foreign exchange rate reserves while receiving FDI flows from the advanced economy. The model can provide a reasonable quantitative account of the recent Asian experience.     

A computable general equilibrium analysis of the welfare effects of trade liberalization under different market structures

Using a static world computable general equilibrium model with 16 sectors and 14 regions, this paper compares welfare effects of trade liberalization of the perfectly competitive model and eight imperfectly competitive models. Our main findings are as follows. First, the size of the welfare impact systematically depends on the type of model. Second, the welfare impact of the perfectly competitive model is not necessarily smaller than those of imperfectly competitive models. Third, the integrated market model tends to have a larger welfare impact than the segmented market model. Fourth, the model with the fixed number of firms tends to have a small welfare impact. Finally, the variety effect tends to have a stronger influence on the welfare effects of liberalization than do scale and markup effects. Differences in the models can be viewed as differences in the economic structures of the regions being analyzed, and therefore the analysis in this paper makes it possible to derive policy implications with regard to the relationship between economic structure and trade liberalization.     

A study of environmental impact on manufacturing products trade in Shandong,China

Based on the situation that the trade of manufactured goods takes the main position in Shandong Province,this paper identifies Shandong industrial pollutant discharge by three indices,which are industrial effluent discharge,industrial SO2 emission,and solid waste disposal.Furthermore,it conducts an empirical analysis of the trade terms of pollution content transfer on nine identified industrial sectors.The conclusion is that the increase in industrial effluent discharge,industrial SO2 emission,and solid waste disposal has paralleled the growth of the GDP in Shandong.The rapid economic growth brings obvious negative impact on the environment.Compared with that in 1998,the increase in the pollution content of exports in 2007 indicated that more environmental costs were generated with the economic development in Shandong.There is a need for optimization of foreign trade structure in Shandong,especially the need for increasing import of the pollution intensive products and decreasing the export of the pollution intensive products.The research on the relationship between manufactured goods trade and the environmental impact will make a contribution to the adjustment of foreign trade and environmental policies.     

Sustained output growth under uncertainty: A simple model with human capital

In a model where agents use their labour/education choice to adjust their consumption profile over time, I show that the impact of uncertainty on growth depends, critically, on agents’ attitudes towards risk, reflected by the coefficient of relative risk aversion. In this respect, the well known result from the literature on ‘saving under uncertainty’ can be extended into a broader context, whereby the intertemporal profile of consumption is determined via human capital accumulation rather than saving and physical capital investment.     

Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model

This paper uses a gravity model to assess ex-post regional trade agreements. The model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962-1996. The introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of Vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects, while the estimation method takes into account the unobservable characteristics of each pairs of trade partner countries, the endogeneity of some of the explanatory variables as well as a potential selection bias. In contrast to previous estimates, results show that regional agreements have generated a significant increase in trade between members, often at the expense of the rest of the world.     

A cost utility model of interferon beta-1b in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

SUMMARY

This study estimates the long-term cost effectiveness of Betaferon®, (interferon beta-1b) in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Clinical trial data, natural disease history information, and costs and quality of life (EQ-5D) data, are linked using disease severity levels, via a model that accounts for the number, severity and duration of relapses, and the probability and speed of disease progression. Previous attempts at modeling the cost effectiveness of beta interferon have produced very estimates of costs per QALY gained (CQG). Increasing data availability enables the modification or replacement of many of the assumptions underlying these models. In particular, longer term modeling and the consideration of wider societal costs is appropriate in the context of this chronic disease. The evidence presented here provides much lower, and more precise, estimates of CQG. The base case 20-year model estimates a CQG of £8,100. These new estimates are in line with other recent estimates and demonstrate the cost effectiveness of beta interferon.