Time zones,GDP & exports

Recent studies have established a negative effect of time zone differences on trade flows. We extend this literature by examining whether a country’s economic size is relevant in its’ response to an increase in time zone differences. We argue that the negative impact of time zone differences should be more important for low-income countries as these countries often face higher trade costs and have firms with lower productivity compared to its high-income counterparts. To examine this heterogeneous impact, we interact the time zone measure with various quartiles of GDP. We find that these low-income countries face a much higher negative impact of time zone differences on exports compared to high-income countries. Our results help explain why the small countries of Samoa and Tokelau changed time zones to closely align with their main trading partners, while high-income countries have not taken such steps.     

Growth with time zone differences

We propose a two-country growth model of intermediate business-services trade that captures the role of time zone differences. It is shown that a time-saving improvement in intermediate business-services trade involving production in different time zones can have a permanent impact on productivity.     

Trade with Time Zone Differences: Factor Market Implications

The main purpose of this study is to illustrate, with a simple two‐factor (skilled and unskilled labor) model, how a time‐saving improvement in business‐services trade benefitting from differences in time zones can have an impact on national factor markets. In doing so, we intend to capture the situation where the night‐shift work in one country is replaced by the day‐shift work in another country. In other words, we will show that trade with time zone differences will result in shifts of the relative supplies and demands for skilled labor around the globe.     

Communication Cost,Skilled-Unskilled Wage,and Informality

Journal of Quantitative Economics - This paper establishes an interesting link between informality and time zone differences in a general equilibrium trade model for small open economy. Trading...     

国家高新区对外贸易、高新技术企业占比影响创新效率的实证研究

加快推进国家高新区发展，是提高创新竞争力、实现经济高质量发展的重要途径。运用超效率DEA模型测算2013-2017年国家高新区创新效率，利用面板数据模型考察对外贸易、高新技术企业发展与创新效率的相关关系及地区差异。研究表明：我国东部地区国家高新区创新效率相对较高，中部地区、西部地区、东北地区高新区创新效率差异明显；国家高新区对外贸易、高新技术企业占比对高新区创新效率提升具有显著正向促进作用，且存在显著正向时滞效应；国家高新区对外贸易、高新技术企业占比对国家高新区创新效率的影响存在地区差异。新时代全面提升国家高新区创新效率，应以高新技术企业为主体，以进一步扩大开放为路径，注重开放贸易、高新技术企业发展相关政策的阶段性与针对性调整。     

中国自贸试验区建设吸引了外商直接投资流入吗? ——来自216个地级市的面板数据考察

自由贸易试验区作为中国深化改革与开放的一项政策实验,尝试通过制度创新实现贸易、投资自由化,其政策效果究竟如何？研究基于2000—2019年216个地级市面板数据,运用广义合成控制法实证检验了我国自贸试验区对外商直接投资的影响。研究发现,自贸试验区在一定程度上吸引了外商直接投资流入,且随着时间推进,其对外商直接投资的正向促进作用愈发明显;控制其他政策因素的多期双重差分法的结果进一步验证了上述结论的可靠性。研究进一步发现：自贸试验区吸引外商直接投资的政策效果存在差异性。从时间趋势看,不同批次自贸试验区的政策导向不同,对外商直接投资的影响力度不同;从区域层面看,自贸试验区建设中,东部地区对外商直接投资的促进作用更强,中部地区的政策效应存在滞后性,西部地区吸引外商直接投资力度有下降趋势;从城市规模看,自贸试验区建设对一线城市外商直接投资的吸引力度更明显,级别越低的城市可塑性越强,吸引外商直接投资流入效果越显著。从不同发展梯度看,沿海自贸试验区对外商直接投资的正向影响程度高于内陆自贸试验区,而沿边自贸试验区并未发挥出对外商直接投资的吸引作用。     

中国自由贸易试验区（FTZ）：演变特征与深化趋势

建设高质量的中国自由贸易试验区,在我国改革开放进程中具有里程碑意义。本文在分析全球典型自贸区代表模式和制度特征的基础上,系统性总结中国自贸试验区的总体深化特征与趋势,以及各自贸试验区制度创新的差异,明确中国在自贸试验区建设改革中应发挥的使命。通过分析发现,中国自贸试验区发展存在四大主要问题,包括全球复杂局势带来的新挑战、自贸试验区建设侧重偏差、制度创新的立法保障缺位、高水平开放支撑动力不足,后续针对性提出了更好发挥自贸试验区作为高水平开放基点的制度创新对策,期望借此契机完善全国自贸试验区内部联动机制,尽快消除国内外经贸规则差异,为我国加快高质量自贸试验区的建设、加速高水平开放的实现,提供有益的经验启示。     

International Service Transactions: Is Time a Trade Barrier in a Connected World?

Firms’ international fragmentation of production has recently widened its focus from outsourcing of intermediates to off-shoring of business services such as software program development and international call center networks. Although many services are intangible and non-storable, gravity model estimates show that geographical distance between business partners matters less for commercial service transactions. Rather, time zones can be a driving force of international service trade by allowing for continuous operation over a 24 hours business day (continuity effect) when a proper division of labor is feasible and countries are connected to electronic communications infrastructure (ICT). But even when ICT provides alternatives for face-to-face interaction, time zones can act as a barrier when coordination problems with sleeping business partners occur (synchronization effect). In this paper, we find empirical evidence for the continuity effect in trade of business services, which is robust to measurement and sample size. Even more important is that the effect of time zones on service trade depends on access to ICT. An improvement of ICT infrastructure will affect business service trade at long time zone distances significantly more than trade at short time zone distances.     

The global arms trade network 1950–2007

Using SIPRI data on all international transfers of major conventional weapons 1950–2007, we study the relationship between differences in polity and arms trade. To study whether states tend to trade arms within their political vicinity we estimate gravity models of the likelihood of trade at the bilateral level and study the evolution of the global network over time. We find a stable negative relationship between differences in polity and the likelihood of arms trade for the duration of the Cold War, but not in recent years. In line with these results, the global arms trade network changes drastically over the sample period in several respects: it grows more dense, clustered and decentralized over time. The differences between the NATO and Warsaw Pact sub-networks that we find corroborate the common perception that the Warsaw Pact was more strongly centralized around the USSR than NATO around the UK, the US and France.     

中小企业商业信用融资区域差异研究

商业信用融资的发展为解决我国中小企业融资问题提供了新的方向。为了更好地利用商业信用融资方式,文章运用面板数据方法对关中—天水经济区和珠江三角洲经济区的中小企业商业信用融资使用情况做了比较分析,发现中小企业商业信用融资使用水平具有区域差异性,并进一步分析了造成差异的原因及其影响程度。文章认为中小企业商业信用融资受到环境、组织和个人三个层面因素的影响,在不同的地区,这些影响因素具有不同的表现。     

泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易实证分析

本文从泛上海都市圈与泰国贸易发展的现状入手，通过使用双边贸易结合度、贸易专业化指数和产业内贸易指数等进行实证分析论证，从而得出双边贸易正由从基于外生比较优势的产业间贸易走向基于内生比较优势的产业内贸易形成互补性分工的结论，不断扩大双边贸易，寻求双方新的贸易增长点。     

Specific Factors,Learning, and the Dynamics of Trade*

In the postwar period, the volume of trade among developed countries has increased at a much higher rate than GDP. This article presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of trade between developed countries that accounts for this pattern of trade dynamics. Countries trade in goods that use good‐specific skilled labor and unskilled labor as factors of production. Specific skills are learned on the job and there exist positive effects in learning. Small initial differences in the distribution of experts in each country generate an increasing pattern of specialization over time. Knowledge spillovers across sectors are crucial determinants of the trade pattern.     

International Productivity Differences and the Roles of Domestic Investment,FDI and Trade

This paper calculates Theil's entropy index to measure the extent of productivity differences across 92 countries for the period from 1970 to 2003. While there is evidence of increasing differences in productivity across these countries, we observe different patterns when we group the countries by income levels. These differences seem to be decreasing among middle income developing and developed countries, whereas they seem to be widening among low and high income developing countries. The results of our multivariate time series analysis also suggest that FDI increases productivity differences among low and high income developing countries, whereas GDI reduces these differences among low income countries in the long-run. Granger causality test results indicate that while an increase in GDI leads to a decline in growth of trade, a higher growth of trade appears to be important for attracting FDI to middle income countries. Furthermore, a reduction in productivity differences and a higher FDI growth lead to higher growth of trade in developed countries.     

Who trades quickly?

We examine differences among US equity market participants according to how quickly, on average, they execute their orders. When traders who execute faster buy (sell), market prices tend to rise (decline). Those who trade more quickly take liquidity more, use smaller trade sizes, transact more frequently, and spread their trading across more venues. Although faster traders are net liquidity demanders, they pay a lower cost to trade. Our results indicate that systematic differences exist across market participants according to how fast they transact, and those with a shorter time to execution exhibit traits that are consistent with information-based trading.     

The determinants of trade performance: influence of R&D on export flows

A theoretical model is presented, in which supply side differences between countries determine international trade flows. This model is empirically tested at a sectoral level for a group of EU countries, within a framework that focuses on changes through time and differences between countries. The results show that the validity of the theoretical model is limited at sectoral level. However, as expected, we find that the variable representing technological differences is significant and correctly signed for high-technology sectors. The evidence points to the existence of different production functions across countries and to the importance of supply side factors in determining the direction and the terms of trade.     

中国保税区国际物流发展面临的问题及其对策

国际物流功能在中国保税区建区十几年来发挥着重要作用,其保税仓储,国际配送,转口贸易等功能一直得到促进与加强,但也遇到了一些新的问题。加强中国保税区物流业与国际市场的接轨,创新保税物流园区监管模式是其必然选择。     

Trade, Wages and Unemployment in the Presence of Hiring and Firing Costs

This paper offers a new explanation of the recent Australian wage inequality and unemployment experience. Building on a standard international trade model, it is argued that trade affects wage inequality and unemployment through changes in the bargaining power of different groups of workers in the presence of hiring and firing costs. This allows previously puzzling aspects of the trends to be explained, including the inconsistency of the existing Stolper-Samuelson trade explanation with rising relative skilled wages at the same time as rising skilled labour intensity of production. Considering differences in labour market institutions, in particular hiring and firing costs and minimum wages, allows differences between the experiences of Australia, the USA and Europe to be explained.     

Trade credit in SMEs: a quantile regression approach

This article analyses the determinants of the trade credit in Spanish manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from a new perspective. Specifically, we focus on the relationship between trade credit and other relevance financial resources: bank credit and self-financing. For the first time in the literature, a quantile regression approach is used, which takes into account the heterogeneity of firms in different quantiles of trade credit distribution. Our results show that the relationship between trade credit and other financial sources presents dissimilarities, including differences in sign, on SMEs with different degrees of trade credit. Our findings help to clarify the confusing results achieved in previous research on this topic.     

International Trade and the Value of Time

I discuss a generalized Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model in which consumption requires time as well as money (as in Becker's theory of the allocation of time) and the amount of work that a worker can do per unit of time—her “ability”—varies from country to country. High ability implies high income per hour, which implies a high value of time and, therefore, high consumption of the good that is more “time‐saving.” Therefore, if domestic production of this good is not commensurately high, it would have to be imported. In this way, I demonstrate that international differences in worker ability constitute an independent source of gains from trade. The model is able to explain several observed features of North–South trade that are not explained by the HOV model. The theoretical possibility of a Leontief paradox‐type trade pattern is also demonstrated.     

“中国—东盟自由贸易区”建立对双边贸易影响的实证研究

中国—东盟自由贸易区双边贸易量随着贸易壁垒的降低而快速增长,并逐渐形成了中国主要出口劳动密集型和低技术产品,东盟主要出口资源密集型产品的贸易结构,从生产格局上看,双方又在各自优势领域中分工合作,互通有无。因此,中国应该进一步加快自由贸易区的建设,利用自由贸易区的机会,提升其产业结构,促进产业升级,尽量把优势产业投资到东盟国家内部。