THE 2005 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: EMERGENT CLASS STRUCTURE*

This article presents a model of the emergent class structure, in which a society inhabited by inherently identical households may be endogenously split into the rich bourgeoisie and the poor proletariat. For some parameter values, the model has no steady state where all households remain equally wealthy. In this case, the model predicts emergent class structure or the rise of class societies. Even if every household starts with the same amount of wealth, the society will experience “symmetry‐breaking” and will be polarized into two classes in steady state, where the rich maintain a high level of wealth partly due to the presence of the poor, who have no choice but to work for the rich at a wage rate strictly lower than the “fair” value of labor. The nonexistence of the equal steady state means that a one‐shot redistribution of wealth would not be effective, as wealth inequality and the class structure would always reemerge. Thus, the class structure is an inevitable feature of capitalism. For other parameter values, on the other hand, the model has the unique steady state, which is characterized by perfect equality. In this case, the model predicts dissipating class structure or the fall of class societies. Even if the society starts with significant wealth inequality, labor demand by the rich employers pushes up the wage rate so much that workers will escape from the poverty and eventually catch up with the rich, eliminating wealth inequality and the class structure in the long run. In an extension, we introduce self‐employment, which not only provides the poor with an alternative to working for the rich, but also provides the rich with an alternative to investment that creates jobs. Due to this dual nature of self‐employment, the effects of self‐employment turn out to be quite subtle. Yet, within the present framework, it is possible to offer a complete characterization of the steady states even in the presence of self‐employment.     

THE 2009 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: DIVERSIFIED TREATMENT UNDER AMBIGUITY*

This article develops a broad theme about treatment under ambiguity through study of a particular decision criterion. The broad theme is that a planner may want to cope with ambiguity by diversification, assigning observationally identical persons to different treatments. Study of the minimax‐regret (MR) criterion substantiates the theme. The article significantly extends my earlier analysis of one‐period planning with an individualistic treatment and a linear welfare function. I show that MR treatment allocations are fractional in a large class of planning problems with nonlinear welfare functions, interacting treatments, learning, and noncooperative aspects.     

THE 2012 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE: BUBBLES IN PRICES OF EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES*

This article proposes a test for the presence of a bubble in the price of an exhaustible resource. A bubble is accompanied by a rise in the storage‐to‐consumption ratio: Consumption peters out, and a fraction of the original stock is held forever. The test suggests there is a bubble in the price of oil and in the market for high‐end Bordeaux wines, but other explanations are also possible. A bubble reduces welfare regardless of whether there are other stores of value, particularly fiat money.     

2002 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE LIQUIDITY AND ASSET PRICES*

We broadly define liquid assets, or monetary assets, as any asset that can be readily sold in the market and can be held by a number of people in succession before maturity. We ask in what environment is the circulation of liquid assets essential for the smooth running of the economy. By developing a canonical model of a monetary economy (i.e., where the circulation of liquid assets is essential), we are able to examine the interaction between liquidity, asset prices, and aggregate economic activity.     

CONTRACEPTION AND DEVELOPMENT: A UNIFIED GROWTH THEORY

This study investigates the interaction of the use of modern contraceptives, fertility, education, and long‐run growth. It develops an economic model that takes into account that sexual intercourse is utility enhancing and that birth control by modern contraceptives is more efficient but more costly than traditional methods. The study shows how a traditional economy, in which modern contraceptives are not used, gradually converges toward a high growth regime, in which modern contraceptives are used. Lower prices or higher efficacy of contraceptives are conducive to an earlier onset of the fertility transition and a quicker takeoff to modern growth.     

ILLIQUIDITY COMPONENT OF CREDIT RISK – THE 2015 LAWRENCE R. KLEIN LECTURE

We provide a theoretical decomposition of bank credit risk into insolvency risk and illiquidity risk, defining illiquidity risk to be the counterfactual probability of failure due to a run when the bank would have survived in the absence of a run. We show that illiquidity risk is (i) decreasing in the “liquidity ratio”—the ratio of realizable cash on the balance sheet to short‐term liabilities; (ii) decreasing in the excess return of debt; and (iii) increasing in the solvency uncertainty—a measure of the variance of the asset portfolio.     

增长极理论对菏泽区域经济发展的启示

菏泽在山东省属于欠发达地区,如何突破菏泽经济发展困境早已成为政府和学者重点关注的问题。从区域经济学角度分析菏泽经济特点,论证菏泽经济所处的发展阶段,阐述增长极理论适宜指导现阶段菏泽经济发展状况,并据此提出了相应的策略措施。培养增长极,让增长极带动周围区域经济发展,再适当合理地应用政策杠杆作用克服增长极理论自身的缺陷,实现菏泽经济腾飞和山东省经济均衡发展,应是现阶段加快菏泽经济快速发展的最佳途径。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: A STATISTICAL INVESTIGATION*

Some writers have emphasised the adverse environmental and social effects of economic growth, while others have claimed that countries with higher levels of social well-being also tend to enjoy higher levels of per capita output. The aim of this study is to see what statistical light can be thrown on these issues by collating and comparing seventeen different social indicators for twenty countries in two bench-mark years, 1951 and 1969. Two methods of analysing data are employed. First, all the countries are ranked for each indicator in turn for a particular year. Each country is then given a score ranging from 1 to 20 for each indicator, and the scores aggregated over the indicators to obtain an overall ranking score for every country. Secondly, the data are subjected to a principal components analysis to examine the correlation between the indicators. The first principal component is a potential candidate for use as a social index number. Changes in these social variables are then related to the rate of economic growth, and no evidence is found of a negative correlation between economic growth and social development. On the contrary, the results suggest a positive correlation between the two, although the strength of this relationship may be diminishing. It is not claimed that the results are in any sense the most preferred test of the form of the relationship between economic growth and social welfare, which must be a matter for subjective evaluation; rather they are seen as a contribution to the body of empirical evidence on this subject.     

THE SOVIET PATH TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Considerable attention has been devoted in the past to the methodological issues involved in the measurement and explanation of economic growth. Following the method pioneered by Denison and applied by him to the United States and Western Europe, comparative studies have been made of various other countries; that for Japan is of special interest. The present paper extends the analysis to the Soviet Union. In order to preserve comparability, the analysis follows the Denison methodology exactly, and compares the results with those for the United States, Northwest Europe, and Japan.     

THE COEVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM MONARCHY TO DEMOCRACY*

This article establishes a unified political economy model to analyze the democratization process from monarchy to oligarchy and to democracy in the context of dynamic economic development. As the predominant source of wealth evolves from land to physical capital and finally to human capital, the relative economic and hence coercive power of land owners, capitalists, and workers shifts accordingly, inducing the transition of the political system where political power is expanded from landlords to capitalists and finally to workers. A smooth transition through political compromise facilitates efficient allocation of savings in physical capital followed by efficient investment in human capital.     

THE ROLE OF TRANSPORTATION IN U.S. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: 1840–1860*

We return to two questions concerning the 19th century U.S. transportation revolution. First, to what extent were transportation improvements responsible for the large changes in the regional distribution of population in the United States and, within regions, for the changes in industry structure? Second, how important were transportation improvements for welfare gains? We find that transport improvements were the key factor driving where people lived and what industry they worked in. We also find that transport improvements were important for welfare gains: Gains over 1840–1860 would have been only half as large if there had been no transportation improvements.     

SIZE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR,ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY: DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY*

The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.     

GROWTH,INEQUALITY, AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM: EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S. STATES

This article returns to the discussion of how income inequality affects economic growth. The main argument of the article is that economic freedom is likely to mediate the association between inequality and growth. In a panel of 300 observations from six 5‐year periods across the 50 U.S. states, I employ five different measures of inequality. The results show that across measures, the growth effects of inequality turn more positive with more economic freedom. The moderating effects are mainly driven by measures of public sector consumption. (JEL O11, O38, O43, P48)     

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC REFORM: THEORY AND SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE RUSSIAN CASE

The paper examines theoretical issues concerning the relationship between political democracy and economic reform and builds on the empirical material from the recent experience of Russia. The process of transition to democracy is shown to have started spontaneously due to the situation of power stalemate among pressure groups that came to control the communist system in the years preceding its ultimate collapse. The unrestrained control by those groups is shown to be the reason behind the continued economic collapse, while gradual build-up of the democratic system can in the long run act in the direction of improving the chances for a successful economic reform.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on real output and price in a sample of 11 developing countries in the Middle East. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel attributed to anticipated exchange rate appreciation results in limited effects on output growth and price inflation. Consistent with theory's predictions, unanticipated appreciation of the exchange rate appears more significant with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.     

阻碍中国经济加速增长之源： 1960-2012年*

当一个国家跨入中等收入阶段后,如果不能实现经济的加速增长,将无法实现向高收入阶段的跨越,其结果会落入中等收入陷阱之中。本文通过构建用于计算中国经济增长减缓和增长加速的时间点约束条件,通过对中国1960-2012年数据进行筛选,找出中国经济增长的增长减缓点和增长加速点,并且借助于Probit模型,从结构性因素、社会与环境因素、官员腐败因素三个方面实证考察阻碍中国经济加速增长之源。最后提出本文的研究结论和政策建议。