通胀隐忧再侵中国

【英国《金融时报》12月14日】也许不用多久，“通胀卷土重来”的呼声又将在中国响起。     

通胀阴影下的全球性货币紧缩

2005年世界经济的全面复苏和石油价格的持续上涨不可避免地为通货膨胀加速输入了源源动力，面对全球性的通胀抬头。一场充满默契的货币运动正在世界各个角落潜在酝酿。     

通胀兵临城下

遍及各国的宽松货币政策与刺激计划让通货膨胀成为一个时代的主题。     

中国通胀趋缓 但隐忧仍在

【英国《金融时报》6月13日】中国5月份消费者物价指数（CPI）趋缓至同比上升7．7％，主要原因是食品通胀势头减弱，以及较高的统计基数。     

CPI难掩通胀隐忧

国家统计局4月9日公告称，3月份全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨3．6％，环比上涨0．2％。     

高货币、低增长、低通胀之谜

货币供应量的高速增长，既没有刺激产出快速增长，亦没有导致通货膨胀。“高货币、低增长、低通胀”成为全球经济新现实。     

学会识别"假通胀"

中国的通胀经常是假的，CPI上涨很多。但与中国经济是否过热无关。所以，最近我经常在提一个问题：货币投放多了是否一定会导致通货膨胀？ 要弄清这个命题，我们至少需要明确两大前提条件：第一，各国货币地位平等，一国经济独立运行，不受其他国家经济变化干扰；第二，经济应当处于增长周期。     

学会识别“假通胀”

中国的通胀经常是假的，CPI上涨很多。但与中国经济是否过热无关。所以，最近我经常在提一个问题：货币投放多了是否一定会导致通货膨胀？ 要弄清这个命题，我们至少需要明确两大前提条件：第一，各国货币地位平等，一国经济独立运行，不受其他国家经济变化干扰；第二，经济应当处于增长周期。     

中美“宽松”货币政策、通胀预期与货币规则的探讨

2008年10月以来,中美两国均采取了不同程度的"宽松"货币政策来应对源于美国金融危机的全球经济衰退。本文的研究显示,2008年,中美两国货币供应量M1和M2增长率是相似的;2008年底到2009年8月,中国的M1和M2增长率分别为20.6%和21.4%,而美国的M1和M2增长率仅为3.36%和2.14%,中国的通胀预期是市场对"超级宽松"货币政策的合理反应。在过去的一年间,中国货币当局对美国金融危机的反应比美国的政策干预更为积极。而货币供应量的高增长孕育着价格上涨的风险,货币政策应当从被动协调美国的相机抉择转向遵循货币数量规则,抑制通胀预期,以实现宏观经济的稳定增长。     

从紧货币政策有隐忧

自从去年底为“防经济过热、防通货膨胀”,采取从紧的货币政策以来,熨平经济过大波动而非加剧波动,货币紧缩的同时兼顾经济发展速度,应该是从紧货币政策的内涵所在。但货币紧缩政策施行半年多,究竟紧了谁又松了谁,哪些货币资金受益,哪些货币资金受损,只有弄清楚这些问题,才能厘清宏观经济调控思路,把握未来政策趋向。     

Optimum Currency Areas Under Inflation Targeting

Several countries face the choice between targeting inflation independently and entering a monetary union that targets inflation. The present paper extends the theory of optimum currency areas to deal with this choice. In contrast to the conventional theory, countries might form more of an optimum currency area the more asymmetric supply shocks are.     

虚拟经济视角下的货币冲击与通货膨胀问题研究

中国当前面临的通货膨胀压力从本质上看,是人民币供给量快速增长导致流动性膨胀的结果.事实上,货币供给的冲击对于实体经济和虚拟经济的影响是不同的:虚拟经济对于货币冲击的吸收能力大于实体经济.因此,我们必须大力发展虚拟经济,丰富其产品的种类,增加交易数量,从而能够有效地吸收货币冲击,防止通货膨胀.     

Inflation Differentials in a Currency Area: Facts,Explanations and Policy

The determinants of inflation differentials in a currency area are analyzed both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective. The empirical analysis shows that a sizeable dispersion of HICP inflation rates across euro-area countries arises mostly in the components based on non-traded goods. There is also a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the response to changes in a common latent factor which accounts for a large fraction of the dispersion in national inflation rates. A stylized model of a currency area is used to understand the interrelation among shocks, structures and policies in driving the data generating process. The model shows that the dynamic of the inflation differentials is largely driven by the variability of productivity in the non-tradable sector of the more flexible economy. Conversely, the output differentials is largely driven by the variability in the productivity of the tradable sector, also of the more flexible economy. Optimal policy is investigated together with an analysis of the optimal adjustment to adopting a common currency with initial incorrect real exchange rate parity.     

货币错配与通货膨胀目标制的不可行性：针对我国现实

现阶段我国正面临人民币汇率稳定与物价稳定的"两难冲突",国内外一些学者主张我国应该采用通货膨胀目标制。从货币错配的角度探讨通货膨胀目标制在我国的可行性表明,由于存在较严重的货币错配及特殊的国情,现阶段我国尚不具备实行通货膨胀目标制的条件,短期内,通货膨胀目标制在我国并不具有可行性,货币政策适合以货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。     

Strong Currency and Weak Currency

This paper presents a two-country model in which two currencies compete with each other. There exists an equilibrium in which the two currencies with different rates of inflation circulate as media of exchange despite neither currency being required to be used for transactions. Taxes payable in local currency and asymmetric injection of fiat money by the government through purchases of a certain good generate demands even for the currency with a higher inflation rate. In such an equilibrium, the government that issues the currency with a lower rate of inflation collects seigniorage not only from its own residents but from the residents of the other country provided that the rate of inflation is positive. The strong currency in the sense of a low inflation rate becomes an international medium of exchange. Policy games, in which the two governments simultaneously choose and commit to tax rates and inflation rates, are also examined. We show, among other things, that the equilibrium rate of inflation is zero in this policy game. In other words, unlike a common argument, the rate of inflation does not go below zero. This result is due to the fact that a negative rate of inflation induces a negative amount of seigniorage andvice versa. Some alternative currency regimes are examined. Even for a country with a weak currency, abandonment of its currency leads to a lower level of welfare. Monetary unions are briefly discussed as well.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 199812(4), pp. 305–333. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.     

Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub‐Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.     

中国通货膨胀率与其不确定性之间的非线性动态关系

通货膨胀率和通货膨胀不确定性之间相互影响,二者之间的内在关系对政府运用货币政策具有重要的现实意义。本文采用1990年1月以来居民消费价格指数(CPI)的月度数据,结合随机域回归模型、系列随机域的非线性检验方法、最大似然估计及贝叶斯估计方法,对我国通货膨胀率与通货膨胀不确定性的关系进行了实证分析。实证研究发现,通货膨胀率引起了通货膨胀不确定性,两者呈现非线性的U型关系,支持了Friedman假说;大的通货膨胀不确性引起通货膨胀率先升后降,呈现非线性倒U曲线关系,Cukierman-Meltzer假说在U型左侧范围内成立,于U型右侧Holland结论成立。     

从货币互换协议到超主权货币动议——中国应对国际金融危机的对外货币战略解读

由美国庞大的财政赤字造成的美元信用危机,直接导致中国的美元资产大幅缩水。面对挑战,中国政府采取了以调整对外资产结构,优化外汇储备配置,增加货币互换协议为途径;以扩大跨境贸易人民币结算业务,培育人民币债券海外发行市场,推进人民币国际化为方向;以拓展SDR职能,建设多元化国际储备货币体系,创建超主权货币为目标的系列对外货币金融政策,分散外汇储备风险,确保美元资产的安全,加速国际货币体系改革进程。     

从阿拉斯加看新疆开发

新疆已成为西北各省进一步向西扩大开放的“瓶颈”,如何利用当地资源与区位优势,美国西北部的阿拉斯加州模式可以借鉴阿拉斯加地处美国西北太平洋沿岸,是美国面积最大的一个州,其面积接近美国领土的1/5,但是人口在美国各州中排名是倒数第三。一提起阿拉斯加,大多数人可能马上会