The Role of Information in Building Reputation in an Investment/Trust Game

This article analyses the role of information in building reputation in an investment/trust game. The model allows for information asymmetry in a finitely repeated sender–receiver game and solves for sequential equilibrium to show that if there are some trustworthy managers who always disclose their private information and choose to return a fair proportion of the firm's income as dividend to the investor, then a rational manager will mimic such behaviour in an attempt to earn a reputation for being trustworthy. The rational manager will mimic with probability 1 in the early periods of the game. The investor, too, will invest with probability 1 in these periods. However, in the later periods, the rational manager will mimic with a certain probability strictly less than 1. The probability will be such that it will make the investor indifferent between investing and not investing, and he, in turn, will invest with a probability (strictly less than 1) that will make the rational manager indifferent between mimicking and not mimicking; that is, the game will begin with pure-strategy play but will switch to mixed-strategy play. There is one exception, though: when the investor's ex ante beliefs about the manager's trustworthiness are exceptionally high, the game will continue in a pure strategy, and the switch to mixed-strategy play will never occur. Identical results obtain if the manager's choice of whether to share his private information with the investor is replaced by exogenously imposed information sharing.     

Hospitals and material management in the coming decade

The 1990s will be a decade of increasing dramatic and traumatic change for hospitals. Reimbursement, technology, and consumers, either alone or in concert, will be the forces that will shape hospitals in the future. At the end of the 1990s we will have hospitals that offer technology to the critically ill, outpatient surgical services, and comforting care for those in the late years of life. Material management will be important to hospitals because expense control will be as important as ever. However, I believe the role of a material manager will diminish as the services provided change and as the role is folded into the responsibilities of those who manage one of the three critical business areas hospitals will be in. This new hybrid of today's manager will still apply all of the concepts to the distribution of supplies in a hospital as today's material managers do but will use them as only a part of their overall management responsibility.     

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EURO?

The Stability Pact ‐ intended to make EMU governments run prudent budgets ‐ is losing its credibility. This article asks the question: what will happen if national debts start to rise again and some governments then have difficulty borrowing? It suggests that there will be calls for bailout, that the EU's political structures will not cope well with the resulting arguments over which countries will pay, and that the eventual and painful result will be a return to the principle that currencies and political areas coincide.     

Total quality improvement

External customers are those who come to the institution to use the services. If these people are not satisfied, the institution will not be accredited, patients will not return, and the institution will receive bad press--thus hurting the institution's image--and physicians will go to other institutions. Patients certainly are looking for value for their dollar in receiving quality services. Third party payors measure and set prices on services rendered. Conservation of resources is the focal point of the modern health care industry. TQI is a vehicle that will bring major departments together to focus on these issues. When department heads are given the power to make decisions and the ability to negotiate with other departments, much headway will be made. Coordination of goals and the understanding of other departmental issues will allow for multidisciplinary decision making that will affect the institution's future.     

The cost of living,threshold bargaining and incomes policy1

For trade union bargainers one of the infallible laws of political economy is that wages lag behind prices. This means that in an inflationary era the real value of the wage to which their members are entitled will be eroded, and some compensation will have to be made for this at the next round of wage negotiations. Therefore, changes in the cost of living since the last settlement will be regarded by trade unions as one of the most important factors to be taken into account in arriving at a new settlement. This is implicit in the statement made by the TUC in 1971 that “it requires pay increases of at least 10 per cent simply to restore the real disposable pay of a union's previous settlement 12 months earlier”. Economists, on the other hand, argue that once an inflation is under way, then economic agents will develop an inflationary psychology—that is, they will expect it to continue and will adjust their behaviour accordingly. If this is correct, trade union bargainers will attempt to anticipate inflation by trying to fix the money wage at a higher level than they would aim for if the price level were more stable.     

The Future Is Rural: Societal Adaptation to Energy Descent

Our present era of high-energy modernity will likely end over the course of the 21^st century, as fossil hydrocarbons wane and new energy technologies fail to compensate. Long-term trends of urbanization will reverse and a migration back to the countryside to regions of high biocapacity will ensue during the coming decades of energy descent. Food will become a central and organizing concern for de-industrializing populations, and key concepts and general methods to secure food supplies using less mechanization and with few outside inputs are presented. Given that high social complexity is institutionalized, with system identities locked-in, we should not expect a planned response to declining net energy. Instead, the so-called Great Simplification will unfold through a series of crises that force reorganization and alter belief systems. Resilience science suggests a role for promoting system transformability along more benign paths and into social forms that are more frugal.     

Assumptions

We continue to make our best guesses about likely policy developments rather than assuming 'unchanged policies'. For the present financial year, 1983-4, we have assumed that fiscal policy will be as set out in the Budget of 15 March and that, where monetary conditions permit, the authorities will continue to push for lower interest rates rather than see sterling appreciate.
In future years we assume that policy will be guided-though not completely determined -by the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (extended in next year's Budget to 1986-7). As in 1983-4, on the basis of our projections of public expenditure and forecasts of output, this implies that there will be scope in future Budgets for further tax cuts. We have assumed that a prioriv for 1984-5 will be the abolition of the national insurance surcharge and that progress will also be possible in this Parliament towards lowering the standard rate of income tax.     

Condorcet meets Bentham

We show that if the statistical distribution of utility functions in a population satisfies a certain condition, then a Condorcet winner will not only exist, but will also maximize the utilitarian social welfare function. We also show that, if people’s utility functions are generated according to certain plausible random processes, then in a large population, this condition will be satisfied with very high probability. Thus, in a large population, the utilitarian outcome will be selected by any Condorcet consistent voting rule.     

Hedging Foreign Project Risk

We study the firm's hedging problem when there is uncertainty about whether its bid on a foreign project will be accepted. Most treatments of this problem suggest that foreign currency options are the preferred hedging instrument. However, we show that when the uncertainty pertaining to the realization of the foreign cash flow is unrelated to the exchange rate, which typically will be the case, futures dominate options as hedge vehicles.
Conversely, options hedging will be appropriate when the viability of the foreign project depends also on an exchange-rate contingency, as would be the case when the bidding firm can withdraw its bid if the foreign currency depreciates sufficiently.
In many cases, both futures and options will form part of the best hedge position. The general principle in forming the hedge is that futures will best offset exchange-rate exposure the existence of which is not exchange-rate contingent. Options will best hedge any costs or revenues that might occur in a foreign currency depending on the outcome of an exchange-rate contingency.     

Dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities

In this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand. The state space is discrete, time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite. A dynamic version of the Dorfman–Steiner identity will be derived. Explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies, of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given. The general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers. Furthermore, particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined. We will study the social efficiency of a monopolist's optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies. From a buyer's perspective, our analysis reveals that waiting – when looking at (immediate) expected prices – is never profitable should two or more units be available. But we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing. Moreover, the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space.     

A systemic approach to the application of marketing theory for charitable organisations

This paper will examine the contribution which core marketing concepts and ideas can make to an examination of the nonprofit-making sector, specifically charitable organisations. Using systemic theory as a framework it will be argued that core marketing concepts and ideas developed in, and specific to, the private sector, cannot be easily transferred to an examination of the charitable sector. At the same time however it will be stressed that these core concepts and ideas can provide a useful initial framework of reference against which further developments can be undertaken. The paper will propose a new dynamic approach to examining the charitable sector which facilitates a more discriminating approach to the application of marketing constructs.     

UPS收购TNT:三国时代来临

UPS同意出资426亿元收购TNT,创下全球物流业多年来最大规模的交易记录。震惊全球物流业的一宗巨资收购案近日揭晓。3月19日,美国联合包裹运送服务公司(United Parcel Service Inc.,下称UPS)宣布,将以每股9.5欧元的价格收购荷兰托马斯     

The monetary policy dilemma: Will interest rates have to rise?

UK interest rates are now at their lowest level for more than two decades, and the government is hoping that interest rates can be kept at a low and sustainable level comparable to the 1960s. Indeed, some commentators are calling for still lower interest rates to offset the risk that the £12bn tax increases and cuts in government spending that will come into effect in the next financial year will lead to stagnant consumer spending and a stalled recovery. Against this must be weighed the risk that the recent very good run of inflation figures will prove temporary. Both headline and underlying inflation will be pushed up by indirect tax increases and there is the possibility that wages will follow too, as employees seek to maintain their living standards in a tightening labour market. That risk would point to a much more cautious monetary policy stance and the possibility that the government may need to raise rates from their present level if it is to achieve its inflation objective. The Chancellor faces a clear dilemma. In this Viewpoint, we assess the evidence available to guide him in his decisions and draw out the implications for the future path of interest rates.     

Antecedents and outcomes of bifurcated compensation in family firms: A multilevel view

Through a multilevel view, this article challenges the dominant assumption in the literature suggesting that family employees will receive more compensation than their non-family peers, which will violate the latter group justice perceptions and will lead them to lower their inputs to retrieve equity. We start by discussing how competing socioemotional priorities combine with the degree of collectivism at the societal level to affect which group will bifurcated compensation favor. We suggest that embeddedness in a collectivist culture will generate a strong desire and a moral obligation to cater to the financial well-being of family members, hence leading to bifurcated compensation favoring family employees. In individualist cultures, however, the family will accord high importance to achieving family prominence, which leads to bifurcated compensation favoring non-family employees. Moving forward, we discuss how nepotism types shape the effect of bifurcated compensation on the under-privileged group work inputs and how this relationship is moderated by the extent of power distance embedded in society. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed at the end of the paper.     

Designing the innovating organization

The innovating organization described is one that recognizes and formalizes the roles, processes, rewards, and people practices that naturally lead to innovations. The point we have emphasized throughout this article is that the organization that purposely designs these roles and processes is more likely to generate innovations than is an organization that doesn't plan for this function. Such a purposely designed organization is needed to overcome the obstacles to innovation. Because innovation is destructive to many established groups, it will be resisted. Innovation is contrary to operations and will be ignored. These and other obstacles are more likely to be overcome if the organization is designed specifically to innovate.Managers have tried to overcome these obstacles by creating venture groups, by hiring some entrepreneurs, by creating “breakthrough funds,” or by offering special incentives. These are good policies but by themselves will not accomplish the goal. Figure 1 conveyed the message that a consistent set of policies concerning structure, process, rewards, and people are needed. The innovating organization is illustrated in Figure 7. It is the combination of idea people, reservations in which they can operate, sponsors to supervise them, funding for their ideas, and rewards for their success that increase the odds in favor of innovation. Simply implementing one or two of these practices will result in failure and will only give people the impression that such practices do not work. A consistent combination of such practices will create an innovating organization that will work.     

美国商业房地产复苏的实证分析及趋势判断

美国商业房地产特别是多家庭住房是支撑本轮经济复苏的重要力量。商业房地产中公寓楼空置率最低且下降最快,但需求扩张力度在减缓。商业抵押恢复较为缓陵,收缩幅度呈缩小趋势,可能成为继多家庭抵押之后房地产复苏支撑力量。商业房地产复苏有相当强的联邦政府支持背景,机构和GSE支持抵押池、国民存款机构和私人养老基金的抵押对商业房地产复苏的支撑力度在逐渐加大。商业和多家庭抵押的信用风险状况改善较快。未来商业房地产价格呈上升趋势,但公寓楼价格升势可能减缓。商业房地产销售缓慢增长;多家庭住房销售呈扩张趋势,但势头逐渐减缓。多家庭租房空置率降势在下半年可能转为缓升势头;住房开工扩张势头开始减缓,明年可能平稳或发生变化。商业抵押呈波动式缓良扩张态势;多家庭抵押持续扩张势头减缓,明年下半年可能逆转。商业房地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）发行扩张,但余额扩张缓陵。商业抵押、商业银行商业抵押以及CMBS的拖欠率继续下降各级CMBS的风险利差可能平稳波动或缓慢趋高。商业房地产市场的活跃程度可能略有加强,明年商业房地产整体情况将略好于今年。     

Doing well by doing right: a fundraiser's guide to ethical decision‐making

• The level of trust a prospective donor has in a charity will, in part, determine whether the individual chooses to support the charity as well as the amount of that support. A key factor involved in trust is an organization's ethical standards. Donors prefer to make donations to organizations that maintain the highest principles. If an organization can consistently make the best possible, most ethical decisions, it will be recognized as being an ethical institution, which in turn will enhance the trust it engenders, and, therefore, the support it can attract. A number of ethical decision‐making models exist. Adopting a decision‐making model will ensure that a methodical approach is used and that the incidents of rash decision‐making will be reduced. Using an ethical decision‐making model will help individuals arrive consistently at the best solutions to ethical dilemmas, defend those decisions, enhance public trust, secure more donors, and raise more money. The value of sound decision‐making and effective ethical decision‐making models are reviewed in this paper.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution in a General Equilibrium framework

In this paper, we consider a general equilibrium model in which the economies are characterized by the distribution of firms on a set of branches of production; we will show that based on the decisions of the managers of the firms, it is possible to build a dynamic system whose solutions reproduce the possible trajectories of the economy. Once the initial state of an economy is known, that is, the initial distribution of firms, we will have a unique solution for this dynamic system, which will coincide with the evolution of the economy, that is, the evolution of prices and equilibrium allocations.The investment decisions of the administrators of the companies will change the distribution over the set of existing productive branches, which in turn will produce changes in the wealth of consumers who are also shareholders of the companies and then as a consequence, their demand will change, and therefore the equilibrium allocations and prices will too.In most cases, these decisions lead to an improvement in the efficiency of the productive side of the economy and an increase in the welfare of the economy as a whole, but, as we will show, under some particular circumstances, even when it comes to rational decisions from the point of view of administrators, this can lead to undesirable repercussions on the welfare of consumers. Besides, in a neighborhood of a critical economy, even when these decisions may involve small changes in the distribution of companies, they can cause abrupt and unexpected changes in the behavior of the economy, or in other words, they can cause an economic crisis. These are characterized by large changes in the prices, in the demand, and in the supply of goods. In contrast, in a sufficiently small neighborhood of a regular economy, small changes in the distribution of firms produced by the investment decisions of managers do not lead to large changes in the subsequent behavior of the economy. We will exemplify these statements with several numerical examples.     

Supply chain optimization: a practitioner's perspective on the next logistics breakthrough

The objective of this paper is to profile a practitioner's perspective on supply chain optimization and highlight the critical elements of this potential new logistics breakthrough idea. The introduction will briefly describe the existing distribution network, and business environment. This will include operational statistics, manufacturing software, and hardware configurations. The first segment will cover the critical success factors or foundations elements that are prerequisites for success. The second segment will give you a glimpse of a "working game plan" for successful migration to supply chain optimization. The final segment will briefly profile "bottom-line" benefits to be derived from the use of supply chain optimization as a strategy, tactical tool, and competitive advantage.     

Briefing Paper: What Economists can learn from Game Theory

Game theory is a branch of mathematics which analyses interdependent decision-making. It attempts to explain how decision-makers might take into account the likely response of others in formulating their own decisions. It has long been applied to microeconomics especially to the theory of the firm under oligopoly where the firm, in devising its pricing and production strategy, will take into account the likely reactions of other firms within the industry. More recently it has been appreciated that many situations in macroeconomics can be analysed in terms of game theory. For example, if one country introduces import controls, how will others react? If one country tries to control inflation by adopting a tough monetary policy, or tries to reflate, what will other countries do? How will exchange rate speculators respond to the government's announcement that it will not intervene in currency markets? Will they believe the government or will they adopt actions which will eventually force the government to intervene? How will markets respond if the government changes its macro-economic strategy? In some cases the “players” are the government and the business community, in other cases one government may be playing against another. In this Briefing Paper we introduce some ideas and results from game theory and show how they can be applied to macroeonomics as well as microeconomics.