地方财政压力与政府非税收入——基于营改增后增值税收入划分调整的视角北大核心CSSCI

2016年我国推行全面营改增并出台增值税收入划分调整过渡方案,改革后地方政府财力是否得到有效弥补,地方政府收入行为是否有所变化,值得我们关注。通过测算比较营改增后增值税收入划分调整前后地方财政压力的变化,发现增值税收入划分调整未能有效弥补省级政府因营改增带来的财政压力。由于各省的收入划分方案在改革之后并没有变化,甚至有的省提高了省本级税收分享比例,导致市级政府财政压力加剧,并倾向于选择非税手段作为应对财政压力的重要途径。本文利用广义双重差分模型实证检验了地级市财政压力对政府非税收入的影响,揭示了营改增后导致地方政府非税行为变化的机制,最后从优化调整央地税收划分、规范省以下财税分配关系、健全地方税体系等方面提出应对策略。     

增值税转型对财政收入影响的实证研究——以吉林省为例

本文以吉林省为例,实证分析了增值税转型对财政收入的影响。结论表明:局部转型不会给中央财政收入带来较大冲击,短期内地方财政收入存在减少的因素、但影响并不大,对个别以单一产业结构为主的市县财政收入有一定的影响。Granger因果检验表明,增值税对财政收入变化产生的影响效应需要滞后4年才能显现出来;协整分析表明,增值税与财政收入之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,增值税转型政策在短期内会对财政收入产生一定的影响,但这种影响效应较小。     

税费替代:增值税减税、非税收入征管与企业投资

通过减税促进企业投资和提振宏观经济是近年来中国税收制度改革的重要目标,但减税政策的实际效果却存在争议。本文利用2009年增值税转型改革,研究了减税对地方政府税费收入和企业非税负担的影响,从税费替代的角度揭示非税负担变动如何影响企业固定资产投资。研究发现:(1)增值税转型在减税的同时提高了地方政府非税收入并加重了企业非税负担,地方财政收入受增值税转型冲击越大,企业非税负担上升越明显。(2)上述应主要体现在小型、微型和民营企业上,大中型、非民营企业的非税负担未发生明显变化。(3)非税负担上升会显著抑制小型、微型和民营企业的固定资产投资,促使小型微型和民营企业通过持有更多现金和减少流动性负债来应对税费负担不确定性。本文有助于理解减税政策对小型微型和民营企业非税负担的溢出效应及其影响,为通过减税降费促进投资和提振经济提供经验支撑。     

Credit risk transfer and financial sector stability

In this paper, we study credit risk transfer (CRT) in an economy with endogenous financing (by both banks and non-bank institutions). Our analysis suggests that the incentive of banks to transfer credit risk is aligned with the regulatory objective of improving stability, and so the recent development of credit derivative instruments is to be welcomed. Moreover, we find the transfer of credit risk from banks to non-banks to be more beneficial than CRT within the banking sector. Intuitively, this is because it allows for the shedding of aggregate risk which must otherwise remain within the relatively more fragile banking sector. Therefore, regulators should act to maximize the benefits from CRT by encouraging the development of instruments favorable to the cross-sectoral transfer of aggregate credit risk (including basket credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations). Finally, we derive the optimal regulatory stance for banks relative to non-bank financial institutions. We show that a level playing field approach is sub-optimal. Regulatory stances should be set to actively encourage cross-sector CRT, first because of the higher fragility of the banking sector and second to induce banks to incur the costs of CRT which otherwise lead them to undertake an insufficient amount of CRT.     

Financial sector structure and financial crisis burden

We consider an overlapping generations model in the presence of financial intermediation. The paper focuses on the analysis of the consequences of a sudden negative repayments shock on financial intermediation capacity and consequently on the economy as a whole. The model exhibits a property of the ‘chain reaction’ when a single macroeconomic shock can lead to the exhaustion of credit resources and subsequently to the collapse of the banking system. To maintain the capability of the system to recover, a regulatory intervention is needed even in presence of the state guarantees on agents’ deposits in the banks. We compare the results for an intermediated economy with those derived for the market economy and draw some broad conclusions regarding the crisis consequences depending on the financial sector structure. We also compare the model predictions with the stylised facts about the Russian financial crisis of 1998.     

Financial sector foreign aid and financial intermediation

The effectiveness of foreign aid is typically measured by the effect of aid on economic growth. Prior literature provides ambiguous results on this effect partly due to the aggregation of aid to different sectors and the small amount of foreign aid relative to the economy in most countries. Because growth in financial intermediation and financial markets has been shown to play a key role in spurring economic growth, in this paper we focus on aid to the financial sector and seek to identify the causal effects of foreign aid to the financial sector on financial intermediation. Using fixed effects OLS and system GMM methods for a panel of countries from 1993 to 2016, we find that foreign aid to the financial sector primarily increases claims on the government sector, and has negative or neutral effect on claims to the private sector and no effect on liquid liabilities of the banking sector and interest rate spread between borrowing and lending rates. This effect persists even after controlling for country institutional characteristics, such as trade openness and rule of law. Thus, foreign aid increases public sector borrowing but does not appear to have any benefits for financial intermediation in the private sector. We verify that the relation is not spurious by using aid to the health sector for falsification tests.     

Banks,financial markets,and social welfare

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of banking and financial markets. The model allows to compare financial systems in which banks have access to financial markets with financial systems in which banks do not have access to financial markets. Allen and Gale [A welfare comparison of intermediaries and financial markets in Germany and the US. European Economic Review 39 (1995) 179–209] find that the Anglo-Saxon model of financial intermediation in which financial markets play a dominant role does not necessarily improve social welfare in comparison with the German model in which banks dominate. Our model provides a theoretical foundation for this view.     

Asset pricing with a financial sector

In this paper, we study the quantitative asset pricing implications of a financial intermediary that faces a leverage constraint. We use a recursive method to construct the global solution that accounts for occasionally binding constraints. Quantitatively, our model generates a high and countercyclical equity premium, a low and smooth risk-free interest rate, and a procyclical and persistent price–dividend ratio, despite an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and a moderate risk aversion of 10. As a distinct prediction from our model, we find that when the intermediary is financially constrained, the interest rate spread between interbank and household loans spikes. This pattern is consistent with the empirical evidence that high TED spread coincides with low stock price and high stock market volatility.     

Tariffs versus VAT in the presence of heterogeneous firms and an informal sector

The debate over the use of tariffs or value added taxes in developing countries has focused on the difficulty of collecting VAT from the informal sector. This paper contributes by considering this issue with heterogeneous firms and endogenous entry. This yields two results. First, a cut in the tariff reduces the size of the informal sector. Second, the imposition of VAT need not increase the size of the informal sector. Turning to simulation results, we find that switching from a tariff to a revenue-neutral VAT increases welfare, in part because of the selection effect generated by heterogeneous firms.     

Shadow banking,insurance and financial sector stability

Motivated by the recent financial crisis and the near collapse of the insurance giant American International Group (AIG), we empirically study the link between the insurance sector, the size of the shadow system and financial stability across countries. Using the Z-score as a measure of financial stability and the ratio of insurance assets to GDP for 26 countries during the period 1998–2011, this paper shows that: (i) the insurance sector is negatively and significantly related to financial stability, and that (ii) using the shadow banking system as a channel, the insurance sector is detrimental to financial stability for countries with a high level of shadow banking assets.     

增值税改革对地方税收收入影响"最小化"的对策选择

在全国范围内推行增值税改革的模式在学界大致有三种:第一种是以目前东北三省试点转型增值税为蓝本,在所有行业对生产用机器设备全额抵扣的改革模式;第二种是在第一种基础上扩大抵扣范围,对所购全部固定资产包括机器设备和房屋建筑一次性抵扣,即消费性增值税改革模式;第三种是进一步扩大增值税征收范围,对产品的全部流转环节产生增值额,不分行业全部实行增值税,完善增值税征收链条的改革模式。本文主要从增值税转型改革在全国范围推开后,对地方税收的长、短期影响以及如何兼顾中央和地方利益这一角度进行探讨。笔者认为,这三种税改模式各存…     

Economic growth and the stability and efficiency of the financial sector

It has been claimed that the ability of emerging markets to adopt optimal stabilization policies is hampered by a number of factors. Among them, it has been recently emphasized the role of financial instability, inefficiencies, and financial market imperfections. It is claimed here that the current financial regulatory paradigm, embodied in Basel II, may improve financial stability but reinforces cyclicality. Therefore, countries should emphasize financial efficiency since it would lead to enhanced financial stability, without increasing cyclicality.     

The synergy of financial sector development and information sharing in financial access: Propositions and empirical evidence

This study assesses the role of information sharing in financialization (or coexistence of financial sub-systems) for financial access. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary and non-contemporary Fixed Effects and Quantile regressions on 53 African countries for the period 2004–2011. The positive complementarity of information sharing offices (ISOs) and financial formalization is an increasing function of financial activity (or access to credit) whereas the negative complementarity of ISOs and financial informalization is a decreasing function of financial activity. In order to leverage on the synergy between ISO and financial formalization for enhanced financial access, some policy measures are proposed.     

The development of a modern financial sector in Sweden

Macro economic development must be supported by a stable and efficient financial system. Excessive and inappropriate regulation of the financial system will restrain its functions and may lead to less than optimal resource allocation. But the transition from a highly regulated system must be carefully planned and orchestrated and several mistakes in this regard were made in the Swedish case, eventually leading to a systemic banking crisis. After the crisis, modern forms of regulation and supervision have been introduced leading to a successful and stable financial sector. Experiences from the Swedish case can be applied to many other financial systems, developed as well as emerging.     

Fuzzy logic and financial risk. A proposed classification of financial risk to the cooperative sector

Applying fuzzy logic to financial indicators is not a well disseminated proposal in the accounting field. This methodology allows observing the results of financial ratios with a broader perspective, showing neither completely true nor completely false results, since they can take an undetermined truthfulness value within a set of values, applying the fuzzy logic theory. The objective of this work is to introduce the reader to the application of fuzzy logic on financial risk indicators, using the ratios of one of the sector one cooperatives of Ecuador, and thus validate the level of relevance of this indicator when compared to the standardized objective of the CAMEL model and its risk rating. To apply this theory, linguistic variables were used, the ranges of which were evaluated in 0–1 scales. It was determined that the fuzzy methodology, applied to financial risks, presents a greater level of relevance toward a good credit rating, ensuring a low level of risk and a very good solvency. However, in periods of low economic activity it would stagnate in this level due to the increased risk.     

论中国金融租赁业的发展趋势

金融租赁和实物租赁是当代经济生活中两种基本的租赁形式.金融租赁又称为融资租赁或现代租赁,实物租赁又称为经营租赁或传统租赁.相应地,租赁业由金融租赁业和实物租赁业两个分行业构成.本文拟从整个国民经济的角度,在分析金融租赁业的作用、业务模式和中国金融租赁业的现状的基础上探讨中国金融租赁业的发展趋势.     

The location of financial sector FDI: Tax and regulation policy

This paper analyzes how corporate taxation and regulatory requirements affect the location of financial sector FDI. We use novel information on new financial services entities established by multinational firms in 83 host countries. We find a negative effect of host country taxes on the probability of choosing a particular host location. We can also confirm a significant influence of the regulatory environment. For example, stricter (equity) capital requirements negatively affect location probabilities. Our empirical approach allows us to provide new insight in how a policy measure of a given country affects other countries by estimating cross-country tax and regulation elasticities.     

Mixing and matching: Prospective financial sector mergers and market valuation

Which types of mergers are likely to be most productive for banks and other financial firms in the US? From a management perspective, mixing disparate firms may be difficult, but may offer significant gains from diversification. The opposite applies to matching similar firms. This paper considers life insurance, property and casualty insurance, securities, and commercial firms as potential matches for banks. It examines a measure of diversification gains from potential consolidation, based on option pricing, and a model of the “building blocks” of the industries, based on arbitrage pricing theory. The results identify potential diversification gains from virtually all combinations involving banking and insurance, which arise because common factors are combined in different ways and because insurance is already well diversified.