The Short‐term Determinants of Capital Flows for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Greece

This paper presents the factors driving capital flows inwards and outwards of a small open economy such as Greece during the period 1983–2009. Apart from the determinants of capital flows the possibility of speculative attacks is also considered. Applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method it is found that variables linked to external factors such as the differential of domestic and foreign interest rates and financial crises, such as the Asian and Russian financial turmoil of 1997 and 1998 respectively, are the main factors influencing capital inflows and outflows in Greece during the period 1983–2009. Additionally the results of probit analysis support that the same factors are significant in determining the probability of speculative attacks to the Greek economy.     

Impeding insurgent attacks: The information management agenda

Recent confrontations in Iraq between coalition forces and insurgents have caused much havoc in the way of economic and political reforms. Insurgents use a wide range of tactics, from suicide bombings to kidnappings, to cause tension between the local factions and the Iraqi populace, and between the locals and the coalition forces. The strength of the insurgent strategy emerges from the nature of their attacks: highly erratic, yet potent. All-out-assault on these insurgents is impossible as they cloak themselves and exploit the advantages of guerrilla warfare tactics. In this paper, we will highlight the informational issues that the coalition forces must appreciate in order to curb and curtail these insurgent attacks. While we do not aim to propose any grand strategy to eradicate all insurgent attacks, we do believe that the true weapon that needs to used optimally (effectively and efficiently) against such attacks is information. Whether the insurgents or the coalition forces, the side that is more successful at managing and deploying information potently and with intent will ultimately prevail.     

The Ephemeral Borders of Revolutionary Spaces

From the Paris Commune to the Red Shirt uprising in Bangkok, revolutionaries lacking the power to overthrow their states or depose unpopular politicians have captured parts of major cities and formed their own temporary enclaves of resistance. These groups create intraurban borders by building barricades, arming themselves, and fighting to protect their space. The borders, while temporary and usually ineffective, are powerful symbols as they separate a sphere of active resistance from territory under state control. While these borders stand, they are challenges to state power – lines marking the limits of what states can control. This essay looks at how these borders arise and how they relate to more familiar types of borders. Revolutionary borders are shaped by many of the same forces as national borders, most notably globalisation, but have a distinct character that is closely linked to the changing geography of urban areas.     

From soft to hard paternalism and back: the regulation of surrogate motherhood in Greece

This paper is a critical analysis of the regulation of surrogate motherhood in Greece; I will discuss the way that a consensus reached in the legislative committee among liberal and conservative jurists on the matter of compensation of surrogate mothers was undermined by intra-party populism in the Greek parliament which banned it to avoid commodification; inevitably the law fell into disuse leading to a new law which allowed government-defined compensation, not the one agreed by the parties; the regulation of surrogate motherhood in Greece is a typical example of the deleterious effects of the combination of legal formalism and legal moralism in contemporary Greece.     

MNE subsidiaries versus domestic enterprises: an analysis of their ownership and location-specific advantages

This paper compares the ownership advantages of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) subsidiaries and domestic enterprises (DMEs) in Greece. Previous studies have tested the hypothesis that ownership-specific advantages (Oa) are a major source of firm differences. This study analyses the processed food sector (SIC=20) - the leading industrial sector in Greece with the highest inward and outward internationalization degree - using a panel data set of 75 firms and 5 years. The findings of a probabilistic regression analysis indicate that there are significant differences between the two groups of firms in the degree of possession of observed ownership advantages. MNE subsidiaries have higher market shares, use multiplant operations and have higher advertising and R&D to sales ratios compared to DMEs. DMEs use their well-established position (knowledge of domestic and regional market conditions, and size economies) in order to compete effectively with MNE subsidiaries. It is inferred that pursuit of domestic market development is an important motivation in such subsidiaries, in an attempt to build on (rather than substitute for) the strong and distinctive established product base of Greek food industry companies. By assimilating Greek food knowledge alongside their own the MNEs developed export-orientation into their subsidiaries in Greece, which eventually have played a notable role in the regional market (Balkans).     

近30年来广东省城市发展特征的时空演变

改革开放近30年来,广东省城市发展发生了巨大的变化,而不同阶段的城市发展被赋予了不同的阶段特征.文章以广东省县级以上城市为研究对象,构建城市发展评价指标体系,运用生态因子分析方法和GIS软件,从时间和空间相结合角度,得出广东省城市发展的各阶段总体发展特征以及时空演变规律:广东省的城市发展是居住生活质量、城市经济、城市规模、人口特性、基础设施等因子共同作用的结果,在空间分布上是集中和分散并存的格局.     

Devaluation of fixed exchange rates: optimal strategy in the presence of speculation

Summary. This paper analyzes devaluations in a fixed exchange rate system by endogenizing both the speculation and devaluation decisions. It is shown that deterministic devaluation rules are generally sub-optimal for the central bank. In order to deter speculation the central bank introduces uncertainty into the timing of devaluation. The nature this mixed strategy is derived, as is the optimal strategy for speculators. The analysis allows an explanation of successful devaluations that are not precipitated by a speculative attacks, even under perfect capital mobility. Received: May 17, 1999; revised version: June 2, 1999     

The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach

The operational procedures of the Bank of Greece underwent major changes during the 1990s. These shifts in operational strategy made interest rates the main tool of monetary policy for the first time in Greece. This paper examines the effects of changes in the bank's operational interest rates on market interest rates at eight maturities and for different operational regimes. A major feature of our study is the application of the event study methodology used in finance, which has not been employed in any previous study on this subject. We find that changes in official interest rates had a significant influence on short-term and intermediate-term rates and that this relationship was affected by the changes in the bank's operational procedure.     

The impact on Greek agriculture from membership in the European economic community

This paper estimates empirically the impact of Greek membership in the European Economic Community (EEC) on production, consumption, and trade of 18 major agricultural products of Greece. The model used combines the limited available data into a multiproduct supply and demand framework and quantifies the effect of transferring the EEC agricultural price structure on Greece. The basic results indicate that Greek farmers would lose substantially and their agricultural balance of trade seriously deteriorate, while Greek consumers would not be seriously affected as a consequence of EEC membership in 1986. Sensitivity analysis on several key assumptions and consideration of structural effects seem to support these conclusions.     

The 1990 Trade Liberalisation Policy of Turkey: An Applied General Equilibrium Assessment

I use a static multi-sector, multi-labour, multi-household Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model for Turkey to show that the trade policy implemented by Turkish policy-makers in the 1990s is not trade diverting. Aggregate welfare rises by 0.6% of the consumer income. Most importantly, since agriculture and traditional the rural income), while urban groups are worse off (-0.5% of the urban income). It is also shown that overall income inequality declines by 1.1-1.7%, and that its main source is the inter-income inequality between urban and rural areas, which decreases by 8.9- 14.7%. [D58, F14, F17]     

EU participation and the external trade of Greece: an appraisal of the evidence

This paper investigates the trade effects caused by the accession of Greece to the EU. A large part of the analysis is in terms of trade flows disaggregated by the 21 categories of the Greek Tariff Schedule. These series are original data sets which have been constructed by the author to be used here for the first time. The main message is that after 1981 events took a turn closer to the pessimistic pre-accession predictions. Our findings indicate that during the post-integration period the external trade of Greece has been reoriented towards the EU countries and Greece lost part of its comparative advantage in those sectors in which such an advantage exists. We also suggest that as far as imports are concerned, EU participation has caused gross trade creation for imports from the EU countries and gross trade diversion for imports from the Rest of the World. As far as exports are concerned, the results indicate that EU participation has caused only a modest increase in Greek exports to the EU market.     

The Euro Area,a Stressful Monetary Union? Learning from Newspapers’ Monetary Policy Coverage

Through a textual analysis of national newspaper articles covering European central bankers’ statements and policy decisions from 1999 to 2011, I derive the concerns expressed by national media in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). I consider these concerns as a benchmark for national preferences, and thus for the preferences of national central bankers in the EMU. I also test the existence of groups of national media (i.e., national publics) according to their shared expressed concerns. The results show that in the euro zone, similar concerns are shared by different country groups, corresponding to a group of countries from Northern Europe (Belgium, Finland, and the Netherlands), Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), and the Periphery (Italy, Greece, and Ireland), but that there are two isolated countries (France and Germany), whose newspapers do not share the issues raised by the rest of the European newspapers. This approach provides further insights into the potential heterogeneity of the European central bankers inside the Governing Council of the ECB in terms of policy preferences.     

Native-immigrant wage differentials in Greece: discrimination and assimilation

This article applies the Blinder–Oaxaca methodology in order to dissect the average earnings differentials between Greek workers and three different groups of immigrants into a part attributed to differences in characteristics and a part due to discrimination. It also seeks to identify the effect of assimilation (i.e. postmigration human capital) on immigrants’ earnings. We use information about 8429 individuals, of which 1185 are immigrants. The data are drawn from the Greek Labour Force Survey (2009). Our results suggest that discrimination is significantly higher for immigrants originating from non-EU countries than it is for EU foreigners, while it is negative for those who terminated education in Greece. Also, there is evidence that (i) post-migration human capital is a significant determinant of immigrants earnings, (ii) there is limited transferability of skills between sending countries and Greece and (iii) education is the main determinant of the wage gap between natives and immigrants.     

Urban–rural gap and poverty traps in China: A prefecture level analysis

Urban–rural gap and regional inequality are long-standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This article examines the dynamic behaviours of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The analysis is conducted by using a distribution dynamics approach, which have advantages in examination on persistence, polarization and convergence clubs. The results show that persistence and immobility are the dominant characteristics in the income distribution dynamics. The prefectural urban and rural areas converge into their own steady states differentiated in income levels. This pattern of urban–rural gap also exists in three regional groups, namely the eastern, central and western regions. Examination on the dynamics of the poorest areas shows that geographical poverty traps exist in both urban and rural prefectural areas. Our results indicate that more policy interventions are required to narrow down the urban–rural gap and to eliminate the poverty traps in China.     

我国城镇居民收入差距演变及"十一五"趋势分析

笔者通过综合使用基尼系数、分组收入份额和分组人均可支配收入实际增长率等指标,多角度定量分析我国城镇居民收入差距的演变过程,认为1985年以来,城镇居民收入差距一直在不断扩大;收入差距加速扩大的局面在2006年开始出现扭转势头。立足于宏观经济背景,作者预测"十一五"期间分组收入份额差距将继续缩小,基尼系数将会降低,有望实现"十一五"规划和十七大提出的"逐步扭转收入分配差距扩大趋势"的目标。     

The polarization impact of the crisis on the Eurozone labour markets: a hierarchical cluster analysis

This study assesses the impact of the Great Recession (2008–2014) on the process of integration of the Eurozone labour markets. Through an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis using several European labour market harmonized indicators, we find that the crisis led to a greater integration, and to a polarization within the area. In the aftermath of crisis, two groups of countries clearly emerged, consisting Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands in the core while Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the periphery.     

高房价与城镇居民创业*——基于CHIP微观数据的实证分析

以往有关高房价与创业的研究存在一定争议,本文基于2002年和2008年中国家庭收入调查（CHIP）分析了高房价对城镇居民创业行为的影响。实证结果表明,在其他条件不变的情况下,高房价能够提高中国城镇居民的创业概率,负担房贷会降低城镇居民创业的可能性,高房价刺激的多为自雇型创业,对老板型创业的促进作用不明显。由于促进的大多是自雇型创业,所以不能高估高房价对创业活动的激励作用,在未来鼓励大众创业的过程中应该着重考虑其他制度性因素。       

城镇家庭收入差异研究——基于2005-2009年安徽省城镇家庭月度住户调查数据的分析

本文以经典的经济增长理论为基础，结合中等收入国家的特点，提出如下理论假设：通胀所造成的家庭福利损失会影响中等收入国家宏观经济的发展，进而推动相关国家陷入“中等收入陷阱”。而后通过FGLS、差分GMM，以及系统GMM的方法对陷入“中等收入陷阱”的典型国家进行回归分析。分析结果表明，在控制了基础设施、债务水平、技术创新以及储蓄率这些影响因素之后，通胀对上述国家人均GDP增长率均有显著的负向影响，即使是在年均通胀率只有514%的东亚国家组，通胀对人均GDP增长率的平均影响也达到了123个百分点～221个百分点，影响比重达到了27%～48%。所以，我们应该加强对通胀的调控，以确保我国经济能够持续健康地发展。     

The EU-Turkey Customs Union and Greece: Who is the loser?

The purpose of this paper is to first apply the theory of trade in vertically differentiated products in a Customs Union context and second to find out the effects of the Customs Union between the European Union and Turkey. This is done both at a theoretical and at an empirical level. Based on these assumptions, the theoretical analysis indicates that the benefits of admitting Turkey into the Customs Union will be unevenly spread between Germany and Greece. In particular, Germany will definitely benefit, whereas Greece may suffer losses. In the empirical part of the paper, it is examined whether the predictions emanating from the theoretical analysis find any empirical support. For this purpose, the behavior of Greek and Turkish exports to the European Union is examined using desegregated data. The evidence is supportive of the theoretical predictions.     

户籍特征对城市劳动力市场状态的影响——以北京市为例

中国城市劳动力市场存在四种不同户籍特征的劳动力群体——本地非农业户籍、本地农业户籍、外地非农业户籍和外地农业户籍劳动力。根据对北京市2005年1%人口抽样调查数据的分析,发现在上述四种户籍特征的劳动适龄人口中,劳动参与率和就业率逐次上升,而失业率则逐次下降。进一步的经济计量分析发现,户籍特征对劳动适龄人口的市场状态具有显著影响,与本市非农业户籍相比,包括本市农业户籍、外地农业户籍、外地非农业户籍等在内的其他各种户籍特征都不易于使劳动适龄人口处于失业和退出劳动力市场状态,户籍身份的差异确实对劳动适龄人口的劳动力市场状态产生了显著影响。