The relation between the average complexity of high-tech products and their diversity: An empirical test of evolutionary models

What is the relation between the average level of complexity that characterizes a product's technology, and the degree of diversity of that technology across rival firms? Evolutionary theories of innovation and technical advance are consistent with either a direct or an inverse relation. The issue thus becomes an empirical one. This paper uses a unique database containing detailed quantitative data on the specifications of 12 high-tech product groups for the U.S., Japan and selected European countries, for 1982, for both products and processes. It is found that the more complex the technology, the less diverse is the technology of rival firms that produce the product. This is consistent with the following evolutionary process: Economies of scale and scope inherent in high-level technologies require firms who adopt them to dispose entirely of older technologies, in order to remain competitive; at the same time, older, simpler technologies continue to exist and permit wide diversities among firms who pursue “niche” market strategies.     

On evolutionary technological change and economic growth: Lakatos as a starting point for appraisal

This paper proposes a discussion on evolutionary technological change and economic growth theory, using the Lakatosian Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes as an appraisal criterion. Since the persistence of some inflexibility in this approach made it difficult to capture fundamental features of the scientific undertaking at hand, an alternative hypothesis was explored, that developed by Hoover (Scientific research program or tribe? A joint appraisal of Lakatos and the new classical macroeconomics. In: de Marchi N, Blaug M (eds) Appraising economic theories: studies in the methodology of research programmes. Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1991). This latter framework is used here not as a formal methodology but rather as a language to find patterns in these theories. This exercise evolved then towards a number of considerations on the confrontation between these evolutionary theories particularly in terms of that which can be seen (in a loose sense) as their “rival research programme”, the new neoclassical growth models.     

The network of networks: Localized technological change in telecommunications and productivity growth

Radical innovations in the usage of telecommunication services have drastically changed the role of telecommunications in the economy. Today the usage of telecommunications services is associated with the opportunity to extract significant quasi-rents. An empirical analysis of the Italian case in the mid-eighties confirms the significant difference between telecommunications cost share and marginal productivity levels. The opportunity to reap transient quasi-rents has in turn pushed users to innovate so as to become major players in the arena of technological change in telecommunications and information technologies. In this context the notion of network of networks, implemented in the European Union, seems most appropriate to push the dynamic efficiency of the system and accommodate both centrifugal and centripetal innovations, yet also to retain network interoperability and interconnectivity.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

我国重点城市技术创新效率的测算

提高城市技术创新能力是构建创新型国家的关键。运用数据包络分析模型测算了全国18个重点城市技术创新的总体效率、纯技术效率和纯规模效率,进而辨析其达到DEA有效的改进方向。最后,对评价结果进行分析,提出提升城市技术创新能力的相应建议。     

Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change

The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as ‘functions of innovation systems’. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.     

Technological change and institutional inertia: a game-theoretic approach

In this paper, we study a co-evolutionary model of economic change at two hierarchical levels. At the lower level, institutions are given and the focus is on how resources are allocated and innovation produced in response to the pay-off structure induced by prevailing institutions. At the higher level, it is the institutions themselves that change as the outcome of a process of social bargaining. The main objective of the paper is to study the interaction between these two levels of change, attempting to provide some insight on issues like technological/institutional divergence, technological dead-end, institutional inertia, etc.It appears that evolutionary economics must be the theory of a process of cultural growth as determined by the economic interest, a theory of a cumulative sequence of economic institutions stated in the terms of the process itself. Thorstein Veblen (1898, p. 393).This work was undertaken while the author was a Research Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.     

Corporate governance,environmental regulations,and technological change

This paper investigates the relationship between environmental regulations and innovation by focusing on the automobile industry in a cross-country setting. We provide empirical evidence that the presence of agency problems mitigates the negative effects of environmental regulations on overall R&D activity, which leads to full compensation when the degree of agency problems is sufficiently high. Guiding our empirical analysis, we provide a general model consistent with the structure of existing ownership data. Specifically, we model ownership structure as a combination of two extreme corporate governance types. On the one extreme there are profit maximizers, and on the other extreme there are managers who are only concerned with their private benefits. The model leads to a simple country level ownership indicator and shows that if an economy is dominated by firms with higher agency problems, then pollution tax might even increase overall R&D, while reducing pollution. According to our estimations, such an outcome is possible only for out-of-sample values of the ownership indicator, where the degree of agency problems is extremely high.     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Extension to energy technology

This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:

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Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.

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Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.

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More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.

These findings are interpreted in terms of fundamental differences between energy and information including the losses and efficiency constraints on energy. We apply Whitney's insight that these fundamental differences lead to naturally modular information technology artifacts. The higher progress rates of information-based as opposed to energy-based technologies follows since decomposable systems can progress more rapidly due to the greater ease of independent as opposed to simultaneous development. In addition, the broad implications of our findings to studies of the relationships between technical and social change are briefly discussed.     

Measuring knowledge intensity in manufacturing industries: a new approach

This article presents the methodology and results for measuring the knowledge intensity of manufacturing industries based on the knowledge-related characteristics of their workforce. The measures link information from the Occupational Information Network project (from the US Department of Labor) and the Occupational Employment Statistics (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) to produce industry-specific knowledge intensity measures. The new measures overcome the main issues posed by the industry-average R&D share in total sales variable, often used as a proxy for knowledge intensity in the literature.     

Identification of technological structures using patent statistics

This paper studies the use of patent statistics in identifying four aspects of technological structure, namely, the potential knowledge pool, cumulativeness, inter-firm homogeneity in technology levels, and the scope of innovations. The firms are sampled from the chemical (CHEM), the computer (COM) and the electrical and electronic (EE) industries worldwide. Using the proxies defined, we find that (i) the contributions of intra-industry spillover are low, at 12%, 10%, and 9% for the three industries respectively; (ii) they can internalize 15%, 19% and 13% of their previous research efforts respectively; and (iii) a positive relationship between knowledge spillover and technology overlap, and between scope of innovation and number of patents being cited in future.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

From necessities to imaginary worlds: Structural change,product quality and economic development

In this paper we explore how innovation and structural change affected economic development in the long run, by which we mean a period such as the one between the industrial revolution and the present. We separate the period since the industrial revolution into two sub periods, which we call ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and focus on three trajectories, increasing productive efficiency, increasing output variety, and increasing output quality and differentiation. In the paper we show how a combination of the three trajectories gave rise to the transition between ‘necessities’ and ‘imaginary worlds’ and propose a mechanism of economic development which could have given rise to the type of economic system which we can observe today. To create growing output quality and differentiation higher competencies were required. These higher competencies required higher levels of education and demanded higher wages, which contributed to raise consumers' purchasing power. These phenomena, combined with the income effect of the creation of new sectors, generated the disposable income with which consumers could purchase the new, higher quality, non necessities, goods and services generated by innovation. In the paper we study the impact of several model parameters on the stability of the virtuous circle previously described.     

中小民营企业技术创新面临的问题研究

目前，中小民营企业由于种种原因技术创新动力不足，创新能力弱小。技术创新正成为中小民营企业面临的新问题。但消化、吸收、再创新仍是企业创新的主要取向，产学研合作是企业技术创新的主要途径，原始创新，独立自主创新不可能在短时期内成为主流，因此消化吸收、产学研结合乃是根本出路。     

A comparison of proxy variable and stochastic latent variable approaches to the measurement of bias in technological change in south african agriculture*

Technical change is inherently unobservable and has conventionally been represented by proxy variables, from simple time trends to more sophisticated knowledge stock variables. This paper follows Lambert and Shonkwiler (1995) in modelling technical change as a stochastic unobservable variable and tests this formulation against the alternative of using R&D and patent indices. This is done by fitting a system of share equations, derived from the dual profit function, to production data for South African agriculture. Each equation includes both unobserved technical change components and technical proxy variables. Variable deletion tests show that conventional proxy variables fail to explain the biases of technological change, while cointegration tests show that technical change is both stochastic and biased. The latent variables provide estimates of biases that are consistent with past studies and the historical record and can be explained by policy change in South Africa following WWII. The demonstration of high rates of return to R&D is not sufficient to justify R&D activity when biased technological change exacerbates input use and welfare distortions within and without the sector. * We thank the University of Pretoria for funding the study and the referees and delegates for many useful comments.     

Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: Modeling and policy implications

The prevailing models explaining how technologies develop along a specific trajectory largely focus on the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism—beyond those of the market and of technology—needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out.     

Systemic technology policies: Issues and instruments

In this Introduction, we review the arguments that underpinned the workshop on which the special section is grounded and provide a structured sequence for the contents of the seven selected papers that comprise the section.