中国参与国际货币体系重塑的思考

正现行国际货币体系是世界经济失衡的根源所在国际货币体系包括确定国际储备货币、各国货币的汇率制度、资金融通机制以及有关国际货币金融事务的协调机制等内容。现行国际货币体系的特点是美元成为未制度化的主要本位货币,多元化的国际储备体系包括美元、欧元、英镑、日元、黄金、特别提款权等;各国汇率实行的是浮动汇率制或盯住美元的汇率制度等多样化安排;大国之间缺乏制度化的货币合作,国际收支调节机制多渠道,成员国可以运用汇率机制、     

从政治经济学角度看国际货币体系改革

全球美元本位制是当前国际货币体系的发展阶段,而在其之前也存在着其他几个阶段,这些阶段的发展和演变是国际政治经济形势变化所导致的,是源于需求与供给两方面作用而形成的。本文从政治经济学角度对国际货币体系的发展和改革进行了分析,在此基础上提出了中国应对国际货币体系改革的对策。     

美元本位下大宗商品定价权的利益

美元自布雷顿森林体系后就一直保持住了其在世界货币体系中的地位,虽然经历过日元、欧元的挑战,但是并未动摇其根本的地位,美元在作为世界本位货币中获得了其他国家难以想象的利益,然而这些利益的获得却隐藏在我们看不见的地方,无声无息而又疯狂地掠夺着我们的财富。本文通过对美元本位产生的原因来分析美元本位背后给美国带来的不为人知的巨大利益。     

次贷危机下的国际金融体系改革及中国的角色

国际金融体系改革的呼声由来已久,本次金融危机再次暴露出现有国际金融体系的重大缺陷,特别是以美元本位为特征的国际货币体系潜存着巨大风险,成为引发次贷危机的重要原因.国际金融体系改革势在必行,次贷危机为改革提供了新契机.对于国际金融体系改革的目标和效果,我们应当要有清醒的认识,注重政策方案的可操作性,避免过于理想化.中国应积极参与国际金融体系改革,不断提高区域金融合作的层次和水平,努力推进人民币区域化和国际化,同时要量力而行,正确处理好角色定位.     

对国际货币体系重构与人民币国际化的若干思考

肇始于美国"次贷危机"的全球陛金融危机给现行的国际货币体系带来了严重的冲击和影响,各国开始反思美元作为国际货币体系惟一核心货币的种种弊端,改革现行的货币体系势在必行.     

关于国际货币制度改革的思考

经历了全球金融危机,现行国际货币制度的固有弊端日益暴露,改革现行国际货币制度势在必行.国际货币制度难以回归到金本位和美元本位制,超主权货币将是我们长期追求的目标,但是现在其存在着一些问题.另外我们应该借鉴欧元区经验完善汇率体系,以实现国际货币制度的改革.     

人民币国际化的收益和成本分析

席卷全球的国际金融危机暴露了以美元为主的国际货币体系的缺陷.推进国际货币体系改革、构建国际金融新秩序至关重要,而人民币国际化则成为国际货币体系改革的重要组成部分.人民币国际化既有收益,也有成本.文章通过对人民币国际化的成本与收益分析表明,国际化带来的收益整体上远远大于成本.因此,应积极创造国际化的有利条件,逐步稳妥推进人民币国际化.     

美元霸权与美元贬值关系探讨

美元作为世界货币已经超越美国经济而拥有美元霸权.美元霸权是综合国力的体现,同时也为美国带来了巨大的利益.当前的美元贬值正是美国出自自身利益而对美元霸权的一种应用.美元继续走软不仅会对世界主要经济体的经济增长产生影响,同时也对当今的国际货币体系提出了新的挑战.     

欧元与美元的实力对比和因素分析

从货币职能出发,结合国际金融最新数据来分析欧元诞生十年之后的发展情况,以及欧元与美元抗衡能力的分析。尤其突出了金融危机后,在美国经济下滑、美元疲软的情况下,欧元的发展潜力很大,但是在短期内,国际货币体系中美元独霸的格局难以改变。     

人民币成储备货币还是幻想

世界银行表示，美元在国际货币体系中的主导地位将在2025年前消失，逐步被一个以美元、欧元和人民币为基础的三极货币体系取代。这个想法虽然不是什么新东西但还是蛮诱人的。很显然，定一个期限没多大意义。须知，一个国际金融系统并不能被强加于人，     

货币区建设与货币政策的独立性：一个分析框架

美国次贷危机引发了全球性金融危机,这凸显了以美国为核心的“金融资本主义模式”和以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行的以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区不可避免会出现“三元悖论”困境。本文提出的贷款准备金政策框架模型,能够解决货币区在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员保持货币政策的独立性问题。     

The US current account,sustainability, and the international monetary system

In this paper, we examine the sources of the US current account imbalances and discuss the role of the international monetary system in enabling the US in carrying such external deficits. There is evidence that the stochastic properties of the US current account are not compatible with the intertemporal national budget constraint. We argue that this is likely to be related to the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve asset, which allows the US to meet international demand for safe assets and allows borrowing at very low interest rates. Results from a structural VAR model indicate that temporary shocks dominate the current account in the short run, whereas domestic permanent supply shocks and preference shocks contribute significantly to US current account movements in the long run. To the extent that temporary shocks stem from aggregate demand, stabilizing aggregate demand is important in achieving long-term sustainability in the current account. Finally, the paper discusses the role of the international financial system and the international role of the U.S. dollar in contributing to US external imbalances.     

Predictability in international stock returns using currency fluctuations and forward rate forecasts

We find that currency risk, specifically dollar exchange rate risk, is a determinant in firm stock returns worldwide. Firms exposed to various dollar exchange rate risks worldwide exhibit strong differences in expected returns, and firms with previously high sensitivity to their home country’s exchange rate fluctuation subsequently outperform during the following six to twelve months. This effect is robust across countries, time, exchange rate policies, and macroeconomic environments. We find that information in currency forward rates provides additional, useful information when predicting future returns of these currency-sensitive firms, and dynamic, state-space estimation of currency forward rate term structures complements the predictability.     

THE SEVENTH‐CENTURY ISLAMIC GOLD STANDARD

Monetary systems are catalysts for economic, social and political progress. The interdependence between monetary, economic and political order is illustrated by currency competition between the Byzantine and Muslim empires in the seventh century. The evolution of an Islamic gold standard demonstrates that Byzantine and Muslim ruling circles were conversant with the dynamics of currency competition. In keeping with the theory of currency competition, the creation of the Muslim gold standard marked the beginning of a rapid economic outperformance by the Islamic empire.     

Currency Mismatching

This paper considers a firm domiciled in an emerging market, modeling its decision to denominate its debt in a combination of its domestic currency and a foreign currency, that is, the dollar. The objective is to determine those situations when the firm is motivated to engage in currency mismatching, that is, denominating a higher percentage of its debt in dollars than what is warranted by its dollar‐denominated sales. The following factors are shown to induce greater currency mismatching: speculative capital flows into the emerging market, reduced ability to price discriminate between domestic and foreign customers, increased exchange rate stability, and lower risk‐aversion. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

马克思货币理论与西方货币数量论比较研究

马克思货币理论和西方货币数量论是当今经济学界影响比较大的两种货币学说,两者在批判和比较中共同发展,从不同角度充实并推动货币理论发展。文章主要比较两者在货币定义、货币职能、货币流通规律三个方面的论述差异,从而更深刻地认识货币学说。     

数字人民币发展的机遇、挑战及政策建议

数字经济的发展,令我国数字人民币进展加快。数字人民币直接关系到货币数字化的推进及支付体系数字化的转型、国家数字金融基础设施的重构、对冲私人数字货币的影响、金融监管数字化转型的加快及人民币国际化水平的提升。发展数字人民币具有经济转型和制度保障、数字经济发展和应用场景、金融科技发展和竞争容错、高质量经济发展和超大贸易规模等机遇与优势;同时也面临市场、技术及体制约束,以及复杂国际环境的挑战。因此,我国应完善货币及金融法律制度体系、数字人民币监管体系、数字人民币技术体系、金融生态环境体系、跨境支付结算体系,加强数字货币技术与规则和国际合作体系建设。     

THE BENEFITS AND COSTS OF MONETARY UNION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract.  With the 14 members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) having set the objective of adopting a common currency for the year 2018, an expanding empirical literature has emerged evaluating the benefits and costs of a common-currency area in Southern Africa. This paper reviews that literature, focusing on two categories of studies: (1) those that assume that a country's characteristics are invariant to the adoption of a common currency and (2) those that assume that a monetary union alters an economy's structure, resulting in trade creation and credibility gains. The literature reviewed suggests that a relatively small group of countries, typically including South Africa, satisfies the criteria necessary for monetary unification. The literature also suggests that, in a monetary union comprising all SADC countries and a regional central bank that sets monetary policy to reflect the average economic conditions (e.g. fiscal balances) in the region, the potential losses (i.e. higher inflation) from giving up an existing credible national central bank, a relevant consideration for South Africa, could outweigh any potential benefits of trade creation resulting from a common currency.     

On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?

GCC countries’ output is heavily dichotomized into oil and non-oil. Oil shocks have similar effects on all member countries but little is known about their responses to non-oil shocks. This paper sets out to determine (1) whether aggregate demand (AD) and non-oil supply shocks (AS) are symmetrical across these countries to justify their suitability for monetary union; and (2) whether there is any commonality of shocks with the United States and the three major European countries, namely France, Germany, and Italy, which can warrant the choice of either the US dollar or the Euro as the anchor for the expected common currency of the bloc. We use bivariate structural vector autoregression models identified with long-run restrictions to extract the shocks. Our results show that (a) AD shocks are unequivocally symmetrical but non-oil AS shocks are weakly symmetrical across GCC countries thereby suggesting a monetary union is feasible, but not overwhelmingly; (b) neither AD nor AS shocks are symmetrical between GCC countries and the selected European countries; (c) GCC’s AD shocks are symmetrical with the US but non-oil AS shock are not. Furthermore, there are no significant changes in the results when we aggregate the GCC countries as a bloc. We therefore surmise that the US dollar is a more appropriate anchor for the new currency than the Euro since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in GCC countries.     

浅析比特币的发展

随着计算机网络的不断发展,比特币成为一种流行的虚拟货币。本文通过阐述比特币的概念与特征,分析比特币的货币职能和风险,以及各国对待比特币的态度,同时提出相应的政策建议。