Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

Euro-Area Inflation: does the Balassa–Samuelson effect matter?

The paper argues that the Balassa–Samuelson effect is of little importance for the inflation target of the ECB. First, econometric tests of the Balassa–Samuelson effect suggest that the most robust link is found between relative sectoral deflators and relative unit labour costs; i.e. a link that accounts for an incomplete wage pass-through. For the (change in the) HICP — the target of the ECB — and its components additional factors seem to cause divergent international and sectoral developments. Second, countries with high productivity growth in industry may experience a real devaluation in the sector of tradable goods which counters the real appreciation resulting from a relative increase in service prices. It follows that the difference in productivity growth and thus the difference in the size of the relative price adjustment between countries does not have unambiguous consequences for the overall inflation rate, and as such can thus not justify an inflation target well above zero.

Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?

The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR-) model, it finds strong evidence that the speed of mean reversion in euro exchange rates increases non-linearly with the magnitude of the PPP deviation. Accordingly, while the euro real exchange rate can be well approximated by a random walk if PPP deviations are small, in periods of significant deviations, gravitational forces are set to take root and bring the exchange rate back towards its long-term trend. Deviations from the PPP equilibrium for the euro-dollar rate need to be stronger in order to reach the same adjustment intensity as for other rates.

Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation

The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory. Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open economy models. The model is estimated for nine euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. We find that the general specification of our model improves the fit of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve considerably compared to the closed economy specification. The estimates of the structural parameters of the model suggest strong heterogeneity in the degree of price rigidity across euro area counties. Furthermore, we find the degree of price rigidity to be systematically lower in the open economy specification than in the closed economy specification and also lower than in the general specification of our model.

Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.

Can the HOSS framework help shed light on the simultaneous growth of inequality and informalization in developing countries?

Using simple, modified versions of the factor proportions framework, and focusing on structural features within developing economies, this paper attempts to reconcile puzzling developments observed in many post-reform, post-liberalization countries whereby increasing income inequality has emerged side-by-side with informalization of the economy. Measures undertaken to enhance public sector efficiency and attract investment in an import-intensive export sector may increase rental–wage and skilled–unskilled wage gaps, contra the predictions of the simple Heckscher–Ohlin–Stolper–Samuelson (HOSS) framework regarding skill- and capital-scarce countries. The common thread generating our interesting results is the presence of sectors that are even more labor-intensive than those producing traded goods.

Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone

This paper analyses the process of nominal and real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (NMS). The importance of nominal and real convergence is underlined in connection with a successful catching-up. The NMS economies experienced robust economic growth in recent years, which had a positive impact on the convergence process. Although this favourable development of real convergence is accompanied by a simultaneous price (nominal) convergence, the comparative price level is still biased towards lower level in comparison with the per capita income. The regression analysis shows interdependence between the comparative price and the income per capita level. This basis enables to evaluate potential benefits and risks connected with joining the euro. The benefits connected with elimination of exchange rate risks and reduction of transaction costs can be compared with the disadvantages associated with the loss of an independent monetary policy and an adjusting exchange rate mechanism. Attention is paid to a potential impact on nominal and real convergence of the observed countries. There are some risks for these countries connected with the common monetary policy, which is adjusted more to the conditions of stabilized advanced economies, forming the core of the Eurozone. These risks can be overcome on the basis of a fast labour productivity growth, accompanied by an adequate policy, ensuring the macroeconomic stability. The rapid productivity growth is raising the relative price level. The Maastricht dilemma, i.e. the fulfilment of two objectives during the stay in ERM II (the price stability and the exchange rate volatility) under on-going nominal convergence enforces an appropriate monetary and fiscal policy. However, such strict policies may slow down the economic growth. Another possible measure for keeping the price stability is a relaxation of the fluctuation band (its full exploitation to the upper and bottom limits), or a change of the central parity (revaluation).

Country size and the trade effects of the euro

This paper investigates whether small countries gain relatively more than large countries from an ‘expansion’ of their market through the creation of a single currency. The introduction of the euro offers a particularly valuable source to test this hypothesis, which we motivate using the theoretical model by Casella of the year 1996. Our results from a panel data analysis, using both aggregate and disaggregated trade data, point to a statistically significant but quantitatively moderate small country bonus. On average, the euro has led to an improvement of the small euro area’s relative export performance by 3–9%.

Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific

In this paper, we construct a macro-econometric model that describes the economic activity in the Asia-Pacific area and provide quantitative insights into the recent policy debates on monetary and currency coordination among the East Asian economies. The model includes a wide variety of monetary and currency policy rules that the East Asian economies adopt and allows for one country's policymaking to have substantial effects on foreign countries. We apply the model to three current policy issues: (1) the desirability of currency basket pegs in East Asia, (2) the anticipated effects of China's currency policy reform, and (3) the non-negativity constraint on Japanese nominal interest rates. The simulation analyses show the external economy effects of policy rules quantitatively and suggest the difficulty of monetary and currency policy coordination among the East Asian economies.

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The takeover and selection effects of foreign-owned establishments: an analysis using linked employer–employee data

We provide the first estimates of the effect of foreign ownership on wages in Germany, controlling for the observed and unobserved characteristics of workers and plants. We also test whether the wage gains from joining a foreign-owned firm are subsequently lost when leaving that firm, and we examine whether wage gains vary across the sample. We find large selection effects in terms of worker and plant components of wages. Once the selection effect is taken into account, the takeover effect is small and in some cases insignificantly different from zero.

The effect of globalization on union bargaining and price-cost margins of firms

In recent years, Europe has witnessed an accelerated process of economic integration. This paper analyzes how increased economic integration has affected labor and product markets. We use a panel of Belgian manufacturing firms to estimate price-cost margins and union bargaining power and show how various measures of globalization affect them. Import competition puts pressure on both markups and union bargaining power, especially when there is increased competition from low wage countries. This suggests that increased globalization is associated with a moderation of wage claims in unionized countries, which should be associated with positive effects on employment.

On Tax Over-Shifting in Wage Bargaining Models

It has frequently been noted in the wage bargaining literature that increasing average labour taxes may in fact be over-shifted in the pre-tax wage that is negotiated between unions and firms, raising workers post-tax wages. In this paper, we study the precise conditions for such tax over-shifting to occur under both Nash and Right-To-Manage bargaining structures, and considering both competitive and imperfectly competitive output market conditions. In the case of competitive output markets, we derive and interpret the conditions for over-shifting to occur and show that they hold for an entire class of commonly used production functions. Moreover, under monopolistically competitive output markets we show that tax over-shifting will occur when the firm has sufficient market power. The conditions on the production function, that were necessary and sufficient for tax over-shifting to occur under perfect competition, are shown to be no longer necessary. These findings hold for all bargaining structures considered.

On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets

The purpose in this note is first to review briefly the empirical results on the relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates; this empirical literature provides little support for the hypothesis of Roll that expected real interest rates are equal in general. Our second aim is to discuss the theoretical conditions that have to be met for his hypothesis to hold.

Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.

Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark

This paper assesses China’s “natural” place in the world economy with a new set of trade integration indicators, which are used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates many more factors than traditional openness ratios. The model tracks international trade well and confirms that China is already well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets and most euro area countries.

The Impact of Racial Discrimination on the Early Career Outcomes of Young Men

The NLSY dataset is utilized to measure the extent of employer wage discrimination between white and black males during their first 5 years of post-school employment. We look at the respondent’s first job and the jobs 1 and 5 years after school completion. Oaxaca wage decompositions are employed to gauge the effect of discrimination. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the discrimination component of the wage gap falls over time. For the first job out of school the unexplained wage gap between blacks and whites is 35%. By year 5, the unexplained component falls to about 13%. Thus, while discrimination continues to play a role in explaining the white–black wage gap over time, its impact decreases as time in the labor market increases.

Black–White Wage Differentials in a Multiple Sample Selection Bias Model

This paper simultaneously incorporates two sources of selection bias in the black-white wage equations. It demonstrates that the biases due to an individual’s propensity to be in the labor force and the firm’s hiring practices are important in determining the black–white wage differential and failure to account for both biases will result in inaccurate estimation of the black–white wage differential. We found that adjusting for double selection bias in the wage equation, the black–white female wage gap is 26% larger than the black–white male wage gap, and 12.1% larger when we adjust for a single selection bias. The results seem to suggest that at the macro level, the enforcement of policies related to racial issues in the labor market will likely lead to a reduction in the black–white wage gap.