A missing link in modeling : The future of time-use as an illustration

A Theory of Action is formulated based on the intentionality of actions. The transformation rules from the new theory to system dynamics were developed and the methodology was then applied to certain problems of future time-use. The modeling approach used is holistic and it requires a meta-system to system dynamics in order to produce quantitative results.     

Toward closer links between science and society in India: A futuristic formula

This work presents a futuristic scenario of science and technology in India in relation to development and social change. Organizational, financial, developmental, etc. trends in science and technology have been identified as consequences of history, culture and national policy alternatives conceived in the past and perceived for the future. The present course of action is considered unlikely to bridge the existing gap between science and society in India. The findings are relevant for S&T policy and planning in the developing countries.     

Theory and practice of integrated impact assessment : The case of the western energy study

Four aspects of an applied technology assessment of western energy development are examined: the social and political context, the analytical approach, organization and management, and participation and utilization strategies. The value of technology assessments in addressing the uncertainties and value conflicts created by technological change depends in large part on organizational and management devices, particularly interdisciplinarity, external review, and participatory research strategies. While these approaches provide no guarantees, they help to compensate for inadequate theories and methodologies in providing integrated research findings.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Trade in technology : Management decisions and pricing

In this article, a model of technology price estimation is developed. The process of trade in technology is seen as resulting in a partial transfer of the market in which the seller of the technology had previously sold his product to the buyer of the technology. Profit decrease of the seller because of market cuts is taken as the basis for the pricing of technology. The random nature of the useful lifetime of the technology is taken into account, and the influence of seller-firm characteristics on the technology price is analyzed.     

A product diffusion model incorporating repeat purchases

A logistic-based model for forecasting the rate of product diffusion given aggregate time series data was constructed. The model differs from earlier models based on fitting the logistic to aggregate data in that it includes a submodel to separate replacement demand from first-time sales. We fit the theoretical model to data and show that forecasts will be significantly more accurate using this model instead of the logistic curve.     

The future of economics: A Delphi Study

In an attempt to forecast the shape of economics in the year 2001, a Delphi study was undertaken, involving over 200 professional economists from 18 different countries. The end result was a list of 28 breakthroughs thought likely to occur in the next 20 years. The paper describes each breakthrough in detail, the process by which consensus and dissent were communicated, and the method used to select the panel of experts surveyed. Although the overall outcome of the study can be interpreted from several perspectives, one inescapable impression that emerges is that the liberal tradition in economics is latent but not dead, or equivalently, that the present conservative drift in the discipline is likely to be shortlived.     

Mindshift: The mental revolution we are in

It is by now a commonplace to say that today the world is in the midst of a revolution as profound as any we have ever experienced. It is, however, much less of a commonplace to specify precisely of what this revolution consists. The contention of this article is that the revolution is more than a mere shift in our industrial or technological base. Fundamentally, it is a change in underlying mental attitudes—how we conceive of the world. It is thus a shift in our values but at the same time much more basic than this alone.This article describes the nature of the change that is occuring in mental attitudes. However, it does not do so in a traditional way. Primarily, it does it by means of a fable. The reason is that the shift we are experiencing is also in part a shift in our aesthetic vision, that is, in the styles of discourse that we use to describe reality. In short, different conceptions of the world require different stylistic forms. The full nuances of a new era can not be captured by the forms of the past.     

Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

Static and dynamic forecasting of short-run demand for money

Previous studies of static and dynamic out-of-sample simulations of the demand for money have indicated a breakdown in the short-run real money balances over the past 1974 forecast period. Using the varying parameter regression technique, the findings of this paper demonstrate that previous results are misleading because the shift of the money demand is obscured by the constant coefficient estimation technique. Our estimation procedure has not only drastically improved both static and dynamic forecasts but has also solved the missing money puzzle.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

Recession 1983: Ten more years to go?

Recession is a Damocles Sword hanging on Western societies, and by reflex on the developing world. The analysis on causes, effects, and possible duration have led to highly controversial results. This article uses an original approach to model the process of long economic cycles, where only physical indicators are taken into account, like number of objects, weights, calories, and time with complete disregard of money, capital, and fiscal measures. From this particular angle economic behavior shows simple, stable, and predictable features, which may greatly help to construct an efficient economic theory. Concerning the recession proper, the model bring fresh support to the Schumpeter view, with time bunching of basic innovations, stable time constants to market saturation, and long waiting for the next bunch to rekindle the boom. Because recession is linked to societal time constants, sweeping solutions appear improbable but a self-consistent patchwork is suggested.     

The use of discounted least squares in technological forecasting

The use of growth curves in technological forecasting usually employs an equal weighting of all data points in the time series. This paper considers the benefits of weighting recent information more heavily through the utilization of discounted least squares. The method is used to model the growth of the percentage of households with CATV; discounting gives better results for short-term forecasting.