Export taxes versus buffer stocks as optimal export policies under uncertainty

Optimal state-dependent export taxes and costly-to-store buffer stocks are compared in their welfare implications for an exporter possessing monopoly power in the international trade of a volatile commodity. Optimal stochastic control is used to derive the optimal buffer stock rules. It is shown that, if the internal and external fluctuations facing the exporter are large, if the storage costs are low, and if the price elasticity of export supply is small relative to that of export demand, the exporter would gain more from a buffer stock than from a optimal export tax. World welfare is always increased by buffer stocks, as opposed to tariffs; and, under some conditions, the foreign country might also benefit and, hence, not retaliate.     

Indexation of UNCTAD core commodity prices by buffer stocks or export quotas?: A comparison of the benefits for two developing economies

General equilibrium models are used to study the resource allocative and income implications for the Ivory Coast and Kenya of indexation of agricultural commodity prices. Two indexation methods are investigated, (i) buffer stock transactions, and (ii) export quota entitlements. The results suggest that there are efficiency losses associated with the buffer stock option which reduce the GDP gains below that indicated by the pure terms of trade gains. Efficiency gains associated with the export quota method however result in GDP increases above those indicated by the pure terms of trade gains.     

On International compensations for environmental stocks

This paper sheds some light on the possible implications of compensations which are paid for the maintenance of an environmental stock. It shows that serious complications can arise if the resource-owner may influence the compensation price strategically. If the incentive to raise the compensation price dominates the preservation incentive, the steady-state stock falls short from that which is voluntarily held. Whether compensation policies can neglect this feature depends crucially on the institutional setting which determines the compensation price.This paper originated from a research project about the stability of international environmental agreements. I gratefully acknowledge financial support by the Volkswagen Foundation. A predecessor of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Ausschuß für Umwelt- und Ressourcenökonomie of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Ladenburg. I am indebted to the participants for many helpful comments which improved this paper significantly. Thanks are also due to Gernot Klepper, Peter Michaelis and two anonymous referees whose comments and suggestions were very helpful. The usual disclaimer applies.     

A capital adequacy buffer model

We develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) that is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model, which measures distance to default and the timeless capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which measures additional returns to compensate for additional share price risk. We apply the model to a portfolio of mid-cap loan assets over a 10-year period that includes pre-GFC (global financial crisis), GFC and post-GFC. An analysis of actual defaults over this period shows the model to be far more accurate in determining the capital adequacy levels needed to counter credit risk than an unresponsive ratings model such as the Basel standardized approach.     

Are stocks desirable in tax-deferred accounts?

Existing literature suggests that, in order to maximize the tax benefit of retirement accounts, investors should follow a “pecking order” location rule of placing highly taxed assets (e.g., bonds) in a tax-deferred account and lightly taxed assets (e.g., stocks) in a taxable account. Empirical evidence, however, documents that a large number of investors violate this rule. In this paper, we show that such violations can be optimal for risk-averse investors who face portfolio constraints. In particular, while the strategy of placing bonds in the tax-deferred account maximizes the expected level of tax benefit, it may lead to volatile benefits under different realizations of stock returns. By holding a similar portfolio in both accounts, investors can achieve a more balanced growth in the two accounts, minimize the likelihood of violating the constraints in the future and hence “smooth” the volatility of the tax benefit. For some risk-averse investors, this smoothing motive can lead to the observed violation of the pecking order location rule. Our model predicts that such violations are more likely when future tax benefits are more volatile, which can occur, for example, when: (i) the tax rate differential across assets increases over time due either to tax law changes or to tax bracket changes for investors; (ii) asset returns are more volatile; and (iii) investors anticipate large future liquidity needs.     

Estimation and cross-country comparison of capital stocks

While capital stock as the measure of productive capacity and the wealth of a nation figures prominently in policy analysis, capital stocks data is lacking in many countries because of the cost of data collection and other difficulties. Even in those countries where such data is compiled, the data is not always up to date. In this paper, we estimate and report the time series data for the capital stocks of 69 countries. We then use the capital stocks series to assess the future growth potentials of these countries.We would like to Thank an anonymos referee for many helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

下一步如何投资中国股票?

背景：2006年5月15日至17日，亚太市场首屈一指的经纪、投资银行及直接投资公司——里昂证券在上海主办了“里昂证券中国投资论坛”。来自26个国家的450名全球机构投资者与会，讨论中国经济面临的机遇和挑战。在此次论坛上，里昂证券发布了这份题为《2006年投资策略》的报告。[编者按]     

Optimal executive compensation: Stock options or restricted stocks

This paper develops an agency model to analyze the optimality of executive stock option compensation in the presence of information manipulation. The analyses show that although information manipulation is positively related to the size of option compensation, the relative size of manipulation-to-effort does not depend on the size of option compensation. Furthermore, an optimal executive compensation package includes stock options instead of restricted stocks under most circumstances. Testable predictions on the relationship between optimal option exercise price and exogenous model parameters are derived.     

定向募集公司股份流通

<正> 定向募集公司的产生定向募集股份公司是改革开放初期的产物。1992年5月15日,以国家体改委为首的十个国家有关部门颁布了《股份公司规范意见》(以下简称《意见》)以及13个配套文件。这些文件不仅首次确立了股份公司在中国产生和发展的合法性,而且根据中国国情对定向募集股份公司中的法人股和职工股从法律上予以了明确的规定,促进了定向募集公司在我国的迅速发展。按照《意见》规定,“定向募集公司”包括以“发起方式”和“定向募集方式”设立的公司,其中,以发起方式设立的公司主要面对国家大型建设项目,以定向募集方式设立的公司的股份包括发起人股、其他法人股和经批准的该公司内部职工股。无论是以发起方式还是以定向募集方式设     

Aquaculture,capture fisheries,and wild fish stocks

This paper employs a general equilibrium model to examine how the rise of aquaculture and changes in wild fish stocks are related for herbivorous fish species. Two influences, human population growth and technological improvement in aquaculture, are studied. Both of these factors raise aquaculture production, but human population growth reduces wild fish stocks, while technological progress in aquaculture raises wild stocks.     

On the correlation between stocks and art market returns

We estimate the correlation between the returns of an S&P 500-based portfolio and Renoir paintings. Unlike previous studies that relied on single-point estimates of the correlation to explore the merits of adding art assets to a portfolio of stocks, we rely on a wild bootstrap algorithm to determine confidence intervals for the correlation estimates. We find that these confidence intervals are so wide (a situation not peculiar to our example) that it seems impossible to make absolute remarks about the merits of adding art-related assets to stocks portfolios. Moreover, our results suggest that previous conclusions regarding the correlation between art and stocks should be taken with some scepticism.     

Buffer stocks,exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity

In this paper an extension of the Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate reduced form is presented and estimated for four bilateral exchange rates with data from the recent floating experience. The extension incorporates two features: a more sophisticated modelling of money demand, using theCarr andDarby money demand specification, and allowing for deviations from purchasing power parity. The estimated results are supportive of our extended specification and we conclude by arguing that care should be taken in specifying the underlying structural relationships in asset reduced form exchange rate equations.     

Heterogeneous capital stocks and the optimal timing for CO2 abatement

Some recent research suggests benefits to a delayed CO₂ emission reduction strategy. If the target level of atmospheric CO₂ concentration can be achieved in spite of delay, several factors suggest economic benefits to a delay strategy. However, the analyses that lead to these conclusions typically ignore or underestimate the significant heterogeneity in the turnover rate of society's capital stock. This research explores the relationship between the turnover rate of capital stocks and the delay decision using a model and empirically estimated abatement costs. The results suggest that under many different assumptions, an early start at CO₂ abatement for long-lived capital stocks would be economically optimal.     

基于目标企业类型差异的购并绩效改善策略研究——上市目标公司与非上市目标公司的对比分析

企业购并是一项技术性、策略性很强的经济活动,由于购并程序较为复杂繁琐、牵涉方面多,所以针对不同类型的目标企业,主并企业的购并计划内容、步骤和绩效改善策略也不尽相同.本文通过构建一个包括外部环境(I-M-L维度)、链接要素(I-S-M维度)以及内部要素(I-E-G维度)三个层面的综合性研究框架,针对上市公司和非上市公司两种不同类型的目标企业,对框架中可能造成购并失败风险的诸多层面和纷繁因素做一个对比和分析,对于一些可能对购并实践有一定指导和借鉴意义的问题廓清,并提出对策性意见,以期对我国购并市场的健康发展和降低企业购并失败率提供理论上的诠释和实践上的参照.     

通货膨胀与物价目标

针对近年来全国各界对通货膨胀的关切和“物价总水平基本稳定”的提法,本文认为有些认识和思路值得反复理清,包括：如何界定通货膨胀及如何看待通货膨胀;通货膨胀与经济增长如何匹配;中国可能期望的,也是难以避免的通货膨胀率是什么水平。文章提出治理通货膨胀要服从核心任务,应建立现实的通货膨胀观念,并在对保持物价总水平基本稳定的提法进行多视角诠释的基础上,给出了控制物价的几点政策建议。